2.6 Trump to be next president of the US.

Well I've declared my current bets as Green Trump/Zero everyone else with the likelihood of backing trump some more as the debates start.

Anyone else actually betting on this ?

Who are your greens and reds?

Laying Trump to win the Popular vote is free money. very large red on Trump on that one for me

Aug 12, 2020 -- 4:21PM, Toto82 wrote:

Laying Trump to win the Popular vote is free money. very large red on Trump on that one for me

I can't see any other result than Trump losing the popular vote.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 3:18PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Trump obviously won the debates against HRC. No one who understand politics disputes this.But Biden is not HRC. If he comes out for two hours and remembers his name, what his running for and where he is that would prove a lot to the American people.If he chooses to debate on Zoom from his basement with his handlers telling him what to say on teleprompter questions might be asked.If Biden can possibly do the debates he must do them and prove people wrong about his cognitive decline.If he fails to do that Americans will know that a vote for Biden is actually a vote for Harris.

Please explain, ideally with reference to some actual evidence, in what way Trump obviously won the debates. You’ve been shown the polling. Or will you appeal to a list of people in the Republican Party who understand politics and thought he did?

Insider Trader doesn't understand politics. That is why he was wiped out in the VP betting market.

And it isn't much use presenting him with opinion polls, he doesn't understand them either. Like Trump, he says they are fake if they don't fit his agenda.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:

Hmm, the dates are now finalised.

And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:40PM, tobermory wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 --  1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.

There's always speculation.  That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:49PM, Fatslogger wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 --  7:40PM, tobermory wrote:Aug 12, 2020 --  1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.There's always speculation.  That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.

The way some folks talk on here I am not sure they realise you have collected

I was talking about the debates. Biden being urged not to go by supportive media and doesn't appear to be ruling out that option. Could be presented as due to Covid, but we know why he'd rather give it a miss.

You know nothing.

I don't believe Trump has similar mental failings as Biden. Trump contradicts things he has said earlier and does stream of consciousness type stuff because is a fundamentally dishonest person that is always trying to blag people and prioritizing the immediate issue

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

There was some talk of hillary feeling she had let herself down
in the debate where trump was stalking her around the platform.

She wished she had said something.

Trump did enough to get his message over without ever really getting into a debate.

Folk thought hillary won but she failed to get get target audience to vote.

Obviously she had whole campaign to do that,.. But failed.

If she won debates twas hollow victory.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:02PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

Was he?  He did the debates against the other Dem candidates, didn't he?

I'd be very surprised if he bails on the debates with Trump.  While I think there's an argument that he doesn't need to take the risk of them going badly given how far ahead he is, the optics would be terrible, so ducking is a bigger risk.  If he were going to duck, he'd have taken a different line up to now, I think, although I admit I've not been following the pre debate narrative very closely.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:02PM, tobermory wrote:

Biden was dodging the debates in the primaries.

Which primary debate did he dodge?

He ducked one with Bernie

Aug 12, 2020 -- 7:52PM, politicspunter wrote:

Aug 12, 2020 --  7:49PM, Fatslogger wrote:Aug 12, 2020 --  7:40PM, tobermory wrote:Aug 12, 2020 --  1:11PM, politicspunter wrote:Hmm, the dates are now finalised.And a lot of speculation that Biden won't show up.There's always speculation.  That's how you get odds of 1.1 or more on things that are close to nailed on barring death, like Biden being the Dem nominee from late March to April.The way some folks talk on here I am not sure they realise you have collected

I haven't yet!  It won't settle until the convention. You can still bet on him at 1.02 for £337 015, as of now. It's quite a bit of money to speculate on him not dying and no complete black swan event preventing him running but it's still pretty astonishing value.  The convention is only a frigging week away!

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:08PM, tobermory wrote:

He ducked one with Bernie

It's a fair point but he'd already won by then! He did the others when the race was still live. Also you said "debates" so I'm awarding you a C.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:05PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

There was some talk of hillary feeling she had let herself downin the debate where trump was stalking her around the platform. She wished she had said something. Trump did enough to get his message over without ever really getting into a debate. Folk thought hillary won but she failed to get get target audience to vote. Obviously she had whole campaign to do that,.. But failed. If she won debates twas hollow victory.

I think you could make the case that Trump outperformed expectations against such an experienced debater; that he landed some blows and that Clinton's victories were ultimately futile but that's not the same as her not winning.

Yep

I thought Biden missed a few in 2019 too, though perhaps its normal for a leading candidate to skip the early ones with no hopers.

I do recall there being a wide consensus in the media that Hilary won the debates. But the media is mostly left centre.

Trump supporters believed he won so probably it all made no difference.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 8:19PM, tobermory wrote:

I thought Biden missed a few in 2019 too, though perhaps its normal for a leading candidate to skip the early ones with no hopers.I do recall there being a wide consensus in the media that Hilary won the debates. But the media is mostly left centre.Trump supporters believed he won so probably it all made no difference.

There were so many Dem candidates early on that they split the debates up into first and second tiers and still had two separate top tier debates, I think. I don't recall Biden skipping any.

On Trump Clinton debates, my take is that she gave him a bloody nose and significantly improved her position by doing so, certainly in two of the three debates. I'm pretty sure polling and Betfair odds reflected that too.  It's hardly incompatible with her losing though, in the same way that you can win a few battles but still lose a war

Biden had a one on one debate with Bernie and I would suggest surprised most of his critics who like to believe that he is senile.

I thought this post I made was end of thread!


stewarty b
Date Joined: 02 Aug 02
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Apologies, I couldn't see the wood for the trees. That said, come November, if Trump is odds against I'll be having a punt on him. It's not about who you like in politics that counts as most will know.


The way I see it is that Biden, being spineless wont attract the votes he needs to get over the line.




It's all about opinions and I will repeat that if Trump is odds against come November I will be having a reasonable bet on him....due to the lack of opposition. (IMHO)

Do you think Trump needs opposition to lose?  What do you make of his very poor polling and approval ratings? If anything, I'd say it's in Biden's favour here that he doesn't elicit very strong feelings.

Utterly ridiculous political bet time triggered by reading an article on Democrat scenario planning in the US election.

If (as very likely) the US election goes pear-shaped due to delayed mail in voting and ends up in a long Supreme court battle the actual result may take several months to announce.

The US Constitution has Trump (and Pence) out on January 4th. According to the constitution the leader of the House of Representatives would take over as POTUS on the 5th January but from January 3rd 2020 Nancy Pelosi’s term ends. This leaves next in line the Senator who is the president pro tempore to take the job of US President until the official result is decided and inaugurated. He is called Chuck Grassley and he is available at 1000’s in next US President betting.

Not a full bank job but hey ho.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z613_M5gxE


Biden v Bernie debate in full.

Aug 12, 2020 -- 9:12PM, Monkey Boy:The Directors Cut wrote:

Utterly ridiculous political bet time triggered by reading an article on Democrat scenario planning in the US election.If (as very likely) the US election goes pear-shaped due to delayed mail in voting and ends up in a long Supreme court battle the actual result may take several months to announce.The US Constitution has Trump (and Pence) out on January 4th. According to the constitution the leader of the House of Representatives would take over as POTUS on the 5th January but from January 3rd 2020 Nancy Pelosi’s term ends. This leaves next in line the Senator who is the president pro tempore to take the job of US President until the official result is decided and inaugurated. He is called Chuck Grassley and he is available at 1000’s in next US President betting.Not a full bank job but hey ho.

Funnily enough, I have £2 on Nancy at 1000 in case this scenario occurs. Will check it out thanks.

And now I have chucked £2 at Chuck.

Folks might say it's mad to back 1000 shots, you are throwing your money away, no chance etc. However, it's always best to have a couple of hail mary punts when they are at the maximum price and your normal bets are in hundreds or even thousands.

Trump is hoping he can get the chance to challenge the result in court which is why he was droning on about Harris being very nasty to Brett Kavanaugh. He is hoping they can save his skin from the huge legal jeopardy he faces when he leaves office.

What is his huge legal jeopardy ?

Surely people are still not plugging Russiagate

regarding Chuck Glassley scenario.

These are the rules for the next president market...


This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.


I don't really understand them... Does it exclude a payout on chuck even if scenario plays out?

(I've chucked a fiver at chuck anyway, coz I like the story, but I might go for a bit more if you think
the rules will pay out as per the scenario described by Fats)

Trump is under investigation by New York State over his dodgy business dealings. He cannot be charged with a crime whilst still in office which is why he is so desperate to be re-elected.

The market is settled on the winner of the electoral college, so Trump or Biden could drop dead before inauguration but they still win.

So even if they die before the counting is finalized they would still win post mortem.

Even though the market is called 'Next President' only the winner of the electoral college will be settled on, even though they might theoretically not be next president.

Betfair do this repeatedly on political markets; the rules contradicting the title of the market.

I can't believe Trump is losing sleep re investigations into his businesses. If they haven't pinned anything in him in 50 years of dodgy deals hard to see them succeeding now.

I believe it is very serious indeed, relating to money laundering, bank fraud, insurance fraud, etc. That's why I described it as huge legal jeopardy.

Does it involve Deutsche Bank?

I recall some very peculiar relationship they had with Trump.

Yes, they are implicated.

Ultimately it's all about the evidence. If they are going to try and nail a former president in a criminal investigation they are going to need concrete, watertight evidence.

It was in a Netflix thing I saw. He owed them a billion or so and said he was not paying them and they said OK.

From what I've read of Trump's business career he seemed the ultimate 'fake it til you make it' guy. But I could not identify a point where the faking stopped. Every big deal the money seemed to be put up by someone else. And every time it went t1ts  up for billions the banks just shrugged and gave him more money.

Some very good analysis here, although naturally I'm partial; enjoy:

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-kamala-harris-is-a-risk-that-could-backfire-on-biden-130820-171.html

I think they ( NY ) have the Deutsche Bank records already and that will open up a whole new ball of wax.

Aug 13, 2020 -- 12:08PM, unitedbiscuits wrote:

Some very good analysis here, although naturally I'm partial; enjoy:https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-kamala-harris-is-a-risk-that-could-backfire-on-biden-130820-171.html

the first point is somewhat fair that Kamala attacks on Biden will be amplified.

However, the rest of this seems to just suggest that Trump campaign will be bitter and horrible and gutter regardless and that whichever woman was chosen would get the same treatment really.

I don't believe they could have targeted Susan Rice, Val Demings, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar or Gretchen Whitmer as easily.

The 2 bolded in particular are pretty laughable given we have a lot more knowledge on the pair. Warren would get slaughtered even more, after all Trump spent ages attacking her.

Kamala is probably something of a defensive pick given that Trump wants to run on law and order. That said, they will still say Dems are soft on crime and Kamala is a horrible woman who contributed to the awful criminal justice system by locking up loads of non-violent offenders too

Aug 12, 2020 -- 9:28PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z613_M5gxEBiden v Bernie debate in full.

Biden was perfectly acceptable from a competence standpoint in this debate from what I recall, very few gaffes.

however, dismissing the concerns of Bernie and his supporters did make me seethe

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1293980540333436929?s=19

Not being Trump accounting for a lot of the Biden vote here

another deluded biden fanboy whos going to lose his money

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:10PM, aaronh wrote:

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1293980540333436929?s=19Not being Trump accounting for a lot of the Biden vote here

Any incumbent is going to have a fair bit of the race being about him but the polarisation in US politics to begin with and on top of that the additional polarising effect of Trump makes this so much more about whether you like Trump than what you think of Biden.  Problem for Trump is that a significant majority of the population at least dislikes him and most of those dislike him strongly.

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:22PM, convict99 wrote:

another deluded biden fanboy whos going to lose his money

You're really selling dispassionate, thoughtful analyst of the US general election here, aren't you? I just wonder whether you might get your point across better if you were slightly more adversarial though, less equivocal.

I did like the irony of replying to someone who doesn't much like Biden, posting evidence that it's not really about Biden, being described as a Biden fanboy though.  Newsflash, Biden really doesn't have many fanboys.

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:23PM, Fatslogger wrote:

Aug 13, 2020 --  9:10PM, aaronh wrote:https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1293980540333436929?s=19Not being Trump accounting for a lot of the Biden vote hereAny incumbent is going to have a fair bit of the race being about him but the polarisation in US politics to begin with and on top of that the additional polarising effect of Trump makes this so much more about whether you like Trump than what you think of Biden.  Problem for Trump is that a significant majority of the population at least dislikes him and most of those dislike him strongly.

Would be interested to see how 2012 Not Obama polled in the same survey..

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:28PM, Fatslogger wrote:

I did like the irony of replying to someone who doesn't much like Biden, posting evidence that it's not really about Biden, being described as a Biden fanboy though.

If you dont think Trump is the greatest POTUS ever and will win easily despite the FAKE POLLS, you are a Trump fanboy.

Thats how it works on here. Likewise all the moderates and centrists who supported remain or dislike Boris or Trump are all far left

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:28PM, aaronh wrote:

Aug 13, 2020 --  9:23PM, Fatslogger wrote:Aug 13, 2020 --  9:10PM, aaronh wrote:https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1293980540333436929?s=19Not being Trump accounting for a lot of the Biden vote hereAny incumbent is going to have a fair bit of the race being about him but the polarisation in US politics to begin with and on top of that the additional polarising effect of Trump makes this so much more about whether you like Trump than what you think of Biden.  Problem for Trump is that a significant majority of the population at least dislikes him and most of those dislike him strongly.Would be interested to see how 2012 Not Obama polled in the same survey..

Me too.  Obama, reasonable bloke though he was, was very polarising too, obviously for different reasons.

The other thing I think is interesting is how low the I vote for my party and against the other was on this, because that's increasingly what Americans actually do.

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:22PM, convict99 wrote:

another deluded biden fanboy whos going to lose his money

Watch that doesn't come back to haunt you

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:34PM, aaronh wrote:

If you dont think Trump is the greatest POTUS ever and will win easily despite the FAKE POLLS, you are a Trump fanboy.Thats how it works on here. Likewise all the moderates and centrists who supported remain or dislike Boris or Trump are all far left

It is by turns amusing and a bit wearing.  It is striking how unanalytical many of the folk on here are though.

Anyway, it's a nice antidote to my Twitter, which does have a few really quite far left follows and very few reactionaries. It doesn't go much further right than a few "I voted remain but" voices.

The simple fact is that the Trump vote is very strong and enthusiastic but there is not enough of them. He needs to somehow persuade Biden supporters who hate Trump to somehow change their vote. Right now Trump is only appealing to his narrow white solid, mostly male vote, which isn't going to be enough to win.

Any thoughts on if the Kanye sort of entry means anything?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1294008862878707712?s=19

These numbers aren't surprising even though seemingly the conventional wisdom was Kanye is there as a spoiler for Biden - presumably on the basis he is black. Because otherwise his few statements made suggest he was appealing to a socially conservative base, one that was shrinking in the Dem voter pool I'd have thought.

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:46PM, politicspunter wrote:

The simple fact is that the Trump vote is very strong and enthusiastic but there is not enough of them. He needs to somehow persuade Biden supporters who hate Trump to somehow change their vote. Right now Trump is only appealing to his narrow white solid, mostly male vote, which isn't going to be enough to win.

Don't forget the silent majority

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:49PM, aaronh wrote:

Any thoughts on if the Kanye sort of entry means anything?https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1294008862878707712?s=19... numbers aren't surprising even though seemingly the conventional wisdom was Kanye is there as a spoiler for Biden - presumably on the basis he is black. Because otherwise his few statements made suggest he was appealing to a socially conservative base, one that was shrinking in the Dem voter pool I'd have thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanye_West_2020_presidential_campaign

Anyones guess how many Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck signatures he can register as supporters on his state applications

Surely trump nails the 28% of usa citizens that are anti covid vaccine.

He really doesn't have to find many more if he can get that wedge out

Problem seems to be many of them are boycotting the election,

Aug 13, 2020 -- 9:46PM, politicspunter wrote:

The simple fact is that the Trump vote is very strong and enthusiastic but there is not enough of them. He needs to somehow persuade Biden supporters who hate Trump to somehow change their vote. Right now Trump is only appealing to his narrow white solid, mostly male vote, which isn't going to be enough to win.

Is my view too.  I like the 538 approach of recognising that there's a long way to go, where some of the uncertainties are and its attempt to quantify them but I keep returning to a point they also make about how entrenched the polarisation is and how stable Trump's (dis)approval ratings have been.  Sure, he could squeak it with a recovering economy, a swing his way, some voter suppression and his electoral college advantage even losing the popular vote (again) but that feels a fair way out on the probability spectrum.

There is polling on people who worried about COVID and those that aren't.

Its a landslide in both directions as you'd expect.

The much smaller base of not worried also probably contains far fewer who didn't vote Trump last time compared to the bigger worried group with regards to 2016 Trump voters

This is an idea of how tough Trumps task is. Minnesota is possibly his main target state which obviously if he were to win it makes Bidens job much harder. Minnesota approval ratings for Trump...

Approve 39%
Disapprove 58%

Trump is behind with every age bracket, gender and race group.

Was Trump a better performer with 50-65 previously than 65+ or has that become a new development this time round? (In general)

The anti maskers are already in his basket of deplorables. The country is polarised. The swing states will decide it as usual.... or perhaps the Courts...or the US Postal Service

There is plenty of time to go badly wrong for Chump and the Republicans but in no way is it over.

Can't see The Army coming out in tanks on the streets for him!.....yet!

Aug 13, 2020 -- 10:08PM, aaronh wrote:

Was Trump a better performer with 50-65 previously than 65+ or has that become a new development this time round? (In general)

The figures I ave is that in the 2016 election the age bracket 50-64 years voted 53-44 for Trump. Now national polling has it 50-47 Biden.

For 2016 65 years and older it was 53-45 Trump. Current polling has it 49-49.

I like the 538 approach of recognising that there's a long way to go, where some of the uncertainties are and its attempt to quantify them but I keep returning to a point they also make about how entrenched the polarisation is and how stable Trump's (dis)approval ratings have been.  Sure, he could squeak it with a recovering economy, a swing his way, some voter suppression and his electoral college advantage even losing the popular vote (again) but that feels a fair way out on the probability spectrum.

Agree with this, as it's pretty much hit the nail on the head. Another way of putting it is - if the stars align he could win this election. The 538 approach will firm up Biden's chances over time, but I like how they factor in uncertainty with the 80 days to go.

Next president: Male, and Biden Popular vote winner both free money.

Is Cohen trying to get himself back in prison or is he going to turn States Evidence?

Chump needs to win in November, December or January to stay out of jail imho. NY prosecutors know they have to wait!

Aug 13, 2020 -- 11:43PM, darren_discombobulates_sports wrote:

Next president: Male, and Biden Popular vote winner both free money.

I wouldn't want to stake my entire fortune on the next President being male at 1.02. It's just possible, although unlikely, that some issue affects Biden, he is unable to stand in the election and Kamala Harris takes over.

This notion that a sitting president cannot be charged with a crime is not actually law. It's just a tradition followed by the DOJ and they have no authority over state law anyway. If Trump is re-elected and statute of limitation issues become a concern, NY State may decide to proceed with a criminal prosecution if they have the evidence, in my uninformed view.

Trump seems to realise he's going to lose the election himself, that's why his whole game plan has moved on to stifling the postal vote and crying foul over it after the election.

Aug 14, 2020 -- 11:15AM, politicspunter wrote:

Aug 13, 2020 -- 11:43PM, darren_discombobulates_sports wrote:Next president: Male, and Biden Popular vote winner both free money.I wouldn't want to stake my entire fortune on the next President being male at 1.02. It's just possible, although unlikely, that some issue affects Biden, he is unable to stand in the election and Kamala Harris takes over.

I’ve taken £15k of it now and the rest is also gone but short odds bettors could have taken loads on Biden as Dem Nom at 1.02 over the last couple of days. I nominated it somewhere as absurd value.

Doesn’t even tie your cash up and make you anxious about Biden’s health for long, as the convention closes on the 20th.

The roll call is scheduled for Tuesday so it should be settled after that.

If anyone is interested in stonewall short odds winners, there are multiple state betting markets available on the exchange where there is only one possible winner.

That isn't my cup of tea but I think that with the election being less than three months away, every 1.01 winner equates to just over 4% tax free, every 1.02 winner equates to 8% etc. There are some at higher prices.

Compared to an annual tax free rate on any savings account I suppose it's worth a look.

Those are higher risk than the ridiculous Biden nominee position I topped up on yesterday as more time for them to be affected by black swan events but it is Dem v Rep so only real risk is if either candidate can’t fight the GE and presumably then the VP nominee can step in anyway so for example, the Dems can’t really fail to win California at 1.02 / 1.03. Would need to check the rules though.

I do quite a lot of short odds political betting on near certainties but months out it does tie cash up for an irritatingly long time.  Mind you, I’ll have the £55k or so I’ve got tied up in nominee markets available again soon.

Hi fats, or should I say PP?

Here is a list of what I consider to be certain wins, most certain first...

Republican- Wyoming, West Virginia,Idaho, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alabama.

Democrat- Vermont, Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Washington, Rhode Island, Delaware, Illinois.

2.44 now, but still value I think.

A poll at the weekend gives Biden the usual 8 point lead, but, asked if they 'strongly support' him only 46% of his intended voters said yes (66% for Trump support).

I'd assumed Biden's numbers were soft because he is such a vapid candidate in ideological terms, but that is worse than I expected.

When your support is so shallow the size of the lead is less significant, as it can evaporate very abruptly.

No doubt there are people who 'strongly support' voting Trump out, and will vote for Biden, but there are going to be 10% of voters who are not so partisan and they will be in play for Trump to close the gap.

Every poll is the same. When asked if they are voting for Biden or against Trump, it's always against Trump that is the higher percentage.

interesting CNN poll out last night

Aug 17, 2020 -- 9:30AM, aaronh wrote:

interesting CNN poll out last night

Sure is!

April Biden+11
May Biden+5
June Biden+14
August Biden+4

Battleground states

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

White voters

Trump 53% (-4 from 2016 exit point)
Biden 43% (+6)

Non-white voters:
Biden 63% (-11)
Trump 31% (+10)

That non-white section is a bit vague. Normally it is broken down into black/hispanic/asian/other

Mind made up section is right in line with other polls with 89% saying they know how they are voting.

Bidens lead narrows to one point in 15 crucial states - latest polls

A total of 1,108 adults, including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida,
Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin) were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both
landline and cell phones. Oversampled states have been weighted to represent their proper share of the adult
population. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 31% described
themselves as Democrats, 27% described themselves as Republicans, and 42% described themselves as
independents or members of another party.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to
reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. For the sample of 987
registered voters, it is +/- 4.0 percentage points. For the subset of 636 adults living in the 15 battleground states, it
is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

Well, I don't know what to make of this at all. The sample per state is tiny. It could mean one of the candidates has huge leads in some states and is miles behind in others or it could mean umpteen other combinations/possibles. You would think that Biden had a clear lead in Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico. Trump should be ahead in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas but there is no way of knowing.

Can’t believe those polls , imagine how far ahead Trump really is

A point is all that you can score!

All of a sudden the polls are accurate and a CNN poll at that!

1.73 Biden

2.52 Trump

The 2.6 is well gone now.

almost that time again

And this is also honkingly bad value. If you are holding any Trump bets do a Vivian Nicholson asap.

Sell, sell, sell !