A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings

Senedd Voting Intention Poll for @AberUni and @NewyddionS4C

RFM: 30% (+6)
PC: 28% (+4)
LAB: 15% (-12)
CON: 10% (-5)
GRN: 10% (+5)
LD: 4% (-1)
OTH: 4% (+3)

Changes vs April 2025

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £45,777 Matched

			106.3%		93.8%
Plaid Cymru	1.43	1.44	1.45		1.57	1.58	1.7	£28,629
	£43	£560	£46		£7	£10	£10
Reform UK	2.8	2.82	2.84		3.35	3.4	3.65	£16,582
	£26	£103	£51		£25	£323	£15
Liberal	48	120	150		-	-	-	£35
	£1	£2	£6
Green	60	120	140		-	-	-	£72
	£2	£5	£4
Labour	110	150	160		430	970	-	£453
	£2	£2	£3		£2	£2
Conservative	540	560	1000		-	-	-	£5
	£1	£2	£4

Too close to call.

Westminster Voting Intention:   

RFM: 24% (-1)
GRN: 20% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LAB: 16% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-) 

Via @FindoutnowUK, 29th April,
Changes w/ 22-23rd April

Blanket photo finish?

Local trends become ever more important, as does getting your vote out.

Refuk are keen voters, lib dems are fanatical door knockers

Labour and tories stay home when it's not going well

Green unknown.

I am just wondering if the five million Farage money could be a growing story and possibly there is more to come?

I doubt it plays into locals, but there could be
parliamentary repercussions after kings speech.

With one week to go to the elections, this will be my last
Scotland poll tracker until Wednesday evening.

SNP 1 short of a majority.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 64 (nc)
Lab: 17 (-5)
Ref: 17 (+17)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 10 (+6)
Con: 10 (-21)

Mark mcGeoghen on blue sky

He's teflon, the stories don't stick. The shenanigans over the house prove that.



Don't get your hopes up.

Sure, but there can be no denying that the Reform voting intention lead is being gradually eroded. Tactical voting would more than eliminate that lead completely.

Under House of Commons rules, new MPs must register all financial benefits over £50 received in the 12 months preceding their election. Critics, including Conservative Party Chair Kevin Hollinrake, argue Farage was "obliged" to report this payment upon his election to Parliament in July 2024.

I'm not sure why he didn't declare it, but seems that
he didn't.

Probably just an inadvertent thing, but doesn't play well
on top of tax dodging on new house in Clacton.

Did he report the £5m personal gift to the tax man?
(I assume it would attract a tax liability)

I assume a gift is tax free for recipient, hence why
it's a gift and he expects nothing back.

A bit more research indicates that the £3k annual tax free gift limit is part of the inheritance tax clawback if the giver dies within 7 years.

I don't know what Thai rules are on inheritance tax, but
he's young enough to have good chance of lasting 7 years if that's the
rule here, and he's got plenty in his estate to cover any risk
to farrage if it is a rule anyway, unless crypto crashes.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 4-5 May 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-1 from 26-27 April)
Labour: 18% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Greens: 15% (=)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (-1)

YouGov's final MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP falling short of a majority, but on course for a fifth term in office


Regional vote
SNP: 28% (-12 from 2021 election)
Ref: 19% (+19)
Lab: 16% (-2)
Grn: 15% (+7)
Con: 11% (-12)
LD: 9% (+4)


SNP: 62 seats (-5 from 23 Mar-8 Apr)
Ref: 19 (-1)
Lab: 17 (+2)
Grn: 16 (+5)
LD: 8 (-1)
Con: 7 (=)

NEW: Senedd Voting Intention
PC - 30.3% (+2.4)
RFM - 28.2% (-1.4)
LAB 15.3% (-0.1)
CON - 9.5% (-0.5)
GRN - 7.2% (-2.7)
LD - 6.2% (+2.6)
Other - 3.4% (-0.2)

FW 1st - 6th May
Survation
Changes vs Apr 2026

seat model projects Plaid on 34 seats vs Reform on 32. Plaid holds a 78% chance of finishing first. Labour are on course for just 17 seats, a historic collapse for a party that has dominated Welsh politics for decades.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 41% (+6)
RFM: 17% (+1)
LAB: 15% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+2)
CON: 10% (+1)
GRN: 1% (-11)

Regional:
SNP: 26% (-1)
RFM: 18% (+1)
GRN: 17% (-3)
LAB: 12% (-)
CON: 11% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1 May - 6 May.
Changes w/ 15 - 20 Apr.

Election maps Seat Model:

SNP: 63
RFM: 18
GRN: 17
LAB: 11
LDM: 10
CON: 10

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 35% (+6)
RFM: 28% (+1)
CON: 11% (-2)
LAB: 9% (-1)
GRN: 9% (-2)
LDM: 6% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1st - 6th May,
Changes w/ 18th - 22nd Apr.

Election maps seat model:

PLC: 45
RFM: 31
CON: 8
LAB: 6
GRN: 4
LDM: 2

Westminster Voting Intention:   

RFM: 25% (+1)
CON: 20% (+2)
GRN: 20% (-)
LAB: 16% (-)
LDM: 11% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 6th May,
Changes w/ 29th - 30th Apr

UK - Local Elections -- Winning Party

5 Runners            £289,979 Matched

			103.8%		98.3%
Reform	1.01	1.02	1.03		1.04	1.05	1.06	£268,715
	£9,589	£14,577	£547		£7,626	£47	£50
Labour	34	36	38		110	120	130	£7,400
	£57	£8	£11		£2	£4	£7
Green	42	44	46		140	150	190	£9,734
	£4	£7	£2		£2	£3	£5
Conservative	48	50	60		240	290	350	£2,723
	£2	£3	£22		£2	£5	£5
Liberal Democrats	400	410	420		650	770	790	£1,406
	£1	£1	£6		£2	£2	£1

UK - Local Elections -- 2nd Most Seats

5 Runners            £10,890 Matched

			116.7%		89.4%
Green	2.28	2.38	2.4		3.25	4.1	4.2	£5,426
	£25	£13	£57		£2	£2	£1
Liberal Democrats	3.15	3.2	3.25		3.8	4.1	5.4	£1,998
	£10	£21	£4		£43	£7	£20
Labour	2.94	3.6	3.75		4.3	4.9	5.4	£1,769
	£2	£19	£2		£41	£31	£13
Conservative	6	6.2	6.4		13.5	14	14.5	£1,359
	£5	£5	£3		£10	£8	£3
Reform	17	34	50		60	70	95	£338
	£3	£2	£6		£1	£2	£2

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £55,754 Matched

			102%		98.8%
Plaid Cymru	1.13	1.14	1.15		1.16	1.19	1.2	£36,693
	£3	£2	£368		£2,390	£1	£1
Reform UK	5.4	6.4	7		8	15	18.5	£18,430
	£3	£15	£41		£20	£3	£2
Liberal	310	500	520		-	-	-	£57
	£2	£9	£2
Green	410	420	500		-	-	-	£89
	£3	£1	£11
Labour	220	400	410		970	-	-	£473
	£1	£8	£2		£1
Conservative	540	570	1000		-	-	-	£11
	£2	£1	£5

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

6 Runners            £225,832 Matched

			101%		99.1%
SNP	-	-	1.01		1.02	1.03	1.04	£224,357
			£2,422		£12,909	£5,784	£157
Reform UK	50	60	65		95	100	110	£1,080
	£263	£40	£36		£1	£1	£19
Labour	270	570	600		-	-	-	£223
	£2	£3	£3
Green	630	650	1000		-	-	-	£132
	£1	£2	£9
Conservative	270	730	1000		-	-	-	£26
	£1	£1	£8
Liberal Democrats	300	460	1000		-	-	-	£14
	£2	£1	£8

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner 2nd place

6 Runners            £5,398 Matched

			110.8%		92.7%
Reform UK	1.33	1.38	1.39		1.48	1.49	1.64	£3,085
	£154	£20	£15		£7	£29	£26
Labour	3.65	3.9	3.95		5	7	7.2	£1,831
	£3	£47	£9		£86	£1	£2
Green	7.8	8.2	8.4		21	29	32	£442
	£6	£6	£1		£7	£9	£2
SNP	110	150	160		860	-	-	£23
	£1	£1	£2		£1
Conservatives	110	120	140		920	-	-	£16
	£2	£1	£3		£1
Liberal Democrats	270	300	360		1000	-	-	£1
	£2	£1	£2		£1

Proper polling

What would Britons say the price of a "decent" bottle of wine is?

£5 or less: 3%
£6: 4%
£7: 7%
£8: 12%
£9: 6%
£10: 20%
£11: 1%
£12: 7%
£13: 1%
£14: 1%
£15: 8%
£16-£19: 2%
£20 or more: 6%

You gov 8th may

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention figures

The latest YouGov voting intention poll for The Times and Sky News shows Reform UK leading on 28% of the vote, up three points from last week’s poll and eleven points ahead of any other party, their highest lead with YouGov to date.

Reform UK: 28% (+3 from 4-5 May)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Lib Dems: 13% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 0% (=)
Others: 2% (=)

Andy Burnham is the top preference to become the next Labour leader and prime minister in the event of a leadership contest - among both Labour members and the general public

Our poll of Labour members, conducted before the May 7th elections, showed:

- Burnham was the top choice of two-fifths of the membership (42%), 31 points ahead of both Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner
- Almost two-thirds (63%) put him in their top three preferences


Survation.

https://electionmaps.uk/support-for-starmer

..

Mps declared for or against starmer staying, and
those as yet undeclared.

The Daily Star have bought another lettuce

Labour Leadership Voting Intentions:

Starmer Vs Burnham:
Burnham: 61%
Starmer: 28%

Starmer Vs Miliband:
Miliband: 46%
Starmer: 39%

Starmer Vs Rayner:
Rayner: 45%
Starmer: 41%

Starmer Vs Streeting:
Starmer: 53%
Streeting: 23%

Via @LabourList - 1,124 Members, 13-14 May.

Latest party leader net favourability ratings, May 2026

Ed Davey: -9
Kemi Badenoch: -17
Zack Polanski: -27
Nigel Farage: -37
Keir Starmer: -46

Yougov.

(Andy Burnham +4)

Feels like ages since last poll, lol.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 17-18 May 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-3 from 10-11 May)
Conservatives: 18% (+1)
Labour: 17% (+1)
Greens: 15% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Your Party: 0% (=)

GB-wide Poll, Excluding Don't Knows

**** Not just makerfield *****

Assuming Andy Burnham is selected as Labour's candidate in Makerfield, who would you most like to see win the By-Election:

LAB: 38%
RFM: 27%
GRN: 13%
CON: 8%
LDM: 6%
Other: 6%

Via @YouGov, 17-18 May.

Westminster Voting Intention [Burnham as Leader]:

LAB: 30% (+8)
RFM: 27% (-2)
CON: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-4)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 15-19 May.
Changes w/ Standard VI.

Very small pitch of salt, but first one I've seen.

Labour's moved in, Reform's moved out, probably on the news of that survey^^^

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £2,493,390 Matched

			98.1%		95.7%
Reform UK	2.62	2.64	2.68		2.7	2.74	2.76	£1,342,659
	£416	£1,884	£361		£264	£2,000	£50
Labour	3.2	3.25	3.3		3.4	3.45	3.5	£539,611
	£2,064	£1,000	£70		£173	£77	£48
Conservatives	6.2	6.4	6.6		6.8	7	7.2	£186,441
	£201	£212	£272		£57	£68	£48
Green Party	16.5	17	17.5		18	18.5	19	£213,677
	£285	£364	£59		£4	£40	£17
Restore Britain	12.5	13	13.5		14	14.5	15	£163,346
	£319	£164	£77		£5	£92	£123
Liberal Democrats	50	55	60		65	70	75	£31,015
	£37	£69	£493		£2	£103	£4
Your Party	370	380	390		560	570	580	£6,998
	£19	£3	£2		£2	£3	£1
Advance UK	560	600	610		880	990	1000	£8,232
	£2	£2	£2		£2	£2	£27
Workers Party of Britain	820	880	1000		-	-	-	£1,412
	£3	£2	£14

Awful survey, but...

And Mr restore working hard here too.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-1)
GRN: 19% (+2)
CON: 18% (+1)
LAB: 16% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@FindoutnowUK
, 27 May.
Changes w/ 20 May.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 25-26 May 2026

Reform UK: 24% (-1 from 17-18 May)
Conservatives: 19% (+1)
Labour: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 14% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 0% (=)

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (-1)
LAB: 22% (+2)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 10% (-3)
SNP: 2% (-2)

Via
@Moreincommon_
, 29 May - 1 June.
Changes w/ 22-25 May.

YouGov
@YouGov
·
6h
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 7-8 June 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-2 from 31 May-1 Jun)
Conservatives: 19% (+1)
Labour: 19% (+1)
Greens: 14% (-1)
Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 1% (+1)

Reform are consistently falling into that mid twenties polling intention bracket from where it's impossible for them to win a majority of seats.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 17% (=)
LAB: 16% (+1)
LDM: 13% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

@FindoutnowUK
, 10-11 Jun.
Changes w/ 3 Jun.

With Nigel Farage and other Reform figures coming under scrutiny over donations, 73% of Britons think Farage is sleazy, and 69% say the same of his party


Govts in general: 77% sleazy

2019-24 Tory govt: 75%

Nigel Farage: 73%

Reform UK: 69%

Current Labour govt: 61%

Tories since 2024: 57%

Keir Starmer: 54%

SNP: 51%

Zack Polanski: 42%

Andy Burnham: 36%

Greens: 35%

Kemi Badenoch: 34%

Lib Dems: 31%

Ed Davey: 26%




Reform UK and Nigel Farage are the only party and current party leaders that a majority of Britons (52-56%) describe as "very sleazy", relative to 44% saying so of the last Conservative government and 31% saying so of the current Labour government and Keir Starmer

Yougov

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (-25)
GRN: 22% (+15)
RFM: 19% (+12)
RES: 9% (New)
CON: 8% (-2)
LDM: 3% (-1)
Ind: 1% (New)

2nd Round:
LAB: 64%
GRN: 36%

Via @FindoutnowUK, 7-13 Jul.
Changes w/ 2024.

From the company that always have Labour much lower than other pollsters.

With a T-rex skeleton selling for $50m at auction on Tuesday, our poll shows that the Tyrannosaurus Rex is Britain's top dinosaur, with 30% listing it as their favourite

T-rex: 30%
Stegosaurus: 12%
Triceratops: 11%
Diplodocus: 10%
Velociraptor: 7%

Survation poll, just before Burnham takes over

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 24% (-3)
LAB 24% (+5)
CON 21% (+1)
LD 11% (-1)
GRN 11% (=)
SNP 3% (=)
RB 2% (=)
PC 2% (=)
OTH 4% (=)

F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

I believe that is the first poll that Reform have not been leading for some considerable time?

Apart from a few "what if" polls...

As they are listed first here they are possibly (probably) still fractionally ahead

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+8)
RFM: 28% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 10% (-3)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Jul.
Changes w/ 12-15 Jun.


Just to keep some folk happy, as they've been miles off average, and probably still are

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+4)
RFM: 24% (-2)
CON: 22% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 8% (-3)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@Moreincommon_
, 24-27 Jul.
Changes w/ 21-22 Jul.

Largest Labour Lead (4%) since March 2025
First Labour lead with an established pollster since April 2025

Survation.
@Survation
·
Jul 28
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

LAB 26% (+1)
RFM 24% (-2)
CON 21% (+2)
GRN 10% (+2)
LD 10% (=)
SNP 3% (=)
RB 2% (+1)
PC 2% (=)
OTH 3% (-3)

F/w 25-27 July 2026. Changes vs 24/07/2026

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 22% (-1)
LAB: 22% (+1)
CON: 21% (+1)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 11% (-3)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via
@YouGov
, 26-27 Jul.
Changes w/ 22-23 Jul.

The Labour Majority price of around 6.6 is looking tempting.

Hedge End South (Eastleigh) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 46.1% (+2.7)
CON: 25.0% (+4.1)
RFM: 18.8% (-8.2)
GRN: 8.4% (-0.3)
LAB: 1.7% (New)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2026.

Reform losing ground again.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+5)
RFM: 23% (-4)
CON: 20% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 10% (-3)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@BMGResearch
, 28-30 Jul.
Changes w/ 23-25 Jun.

Largest Labour Lead (5%) with ANY Pollster since January 2025.

Reform were Odds on 3 months ago.

The recent trifecta of dodgey crypto, combined with the ongoing comedic clown show featuring the saviour of the UK beating a dustbin in a by-election has seen the layers £cashing in.

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £3,184,079 Matched

			99.1%		96.6%
Labour	2.5	2.52	2.54		2.58	2.6	2.62	£813,715
	£39	£78	£70		£127	£192	£56
Reform UK	3.75	3.8	3.85		3.95	4	4.1	£1,595,268
	£47	£2,000	£832		£110	£203	£345
Conservatives	3.9	3.95	4		4.1	4.2	4.3	£280,016
	£1,293	£1,491	£23		£850	£477	£84
Restore Britain	20	21	22		23	24	25	£211,557
	£72	£23	£18		£118	£22	£44
Green Party	40	42	44		46	48	50	£227,642
	£19	£21	£880		£7	£23	£10
Liberal Democrats	55	60	65		70	75	80	£36,725
	£83	£68	£105		£56	£7	£3
Your Party	420	440	450		580	600	700	£8,230
	£3	£2	£10		£3	£2	£2
Workers Party of Britain	900	910	1000		-	-	-	£2,239
	£2	£3	£17
Advance UK	810	940	1000		-	-	-	£8,686
	£3	£2	£4

A big smell the coffee moment,well done Britain.

If you'd have pitched to the producers of Alan Partridge's "Alpha Papa", to make a sequel, where a poundland
version of Alan Partridge resigns his job as a fringe party MP, immediately regrets it and tries to win it back in a hero vs dustbin storyline.


They'd have turned it down because they don't make documentaries.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+5)
RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 17% (-3)
GRN: 12% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@OpiniumResearch
, 29-31 Jul.
Changes w/ 15-17 Jul.

Labour well and truly on the up, Reform fading.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+6)
REF: 25% (-2)
CON: 20% (-1)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 10% (-1)

Via
@JLPartnersPolls
, On 1st-3rd August,
Changes w/ 16th-19th June.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 26% (-9)
REF: 23% (+8)
CON: 21% (-3)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 10% (+3)

Seat Forecast (MRP):

LAB: 245 (-166)
REF: 174 (+169)
CON: 99 (-22)
LDM: 67 (-5)
SNP: 25 (+16)

via
@convergentrsrch
, 25-30 Jul

(Changes with 2024 Election)

Approval Ratings (NET)

Andy Burnham: 16% (0)
Ed Davey: -4% (-5)
Kemi Badenoch: -5% (-6)
Zack Polanski: -23% (-3)
Nigel Farage: -25% (-1)

Via: Opinium
Field Work: 5-7 August changes w/ 29 - 31 July

Andy Burnham ends his 3rd week as Prime Minister with a 1.3% lead in the polling average:

LAB: 25.6% - 18 month high
RFM: 24.3% - 10 month low
CON: 19.6%
GRN: 11.3% - 10 month low
LDM: 10.7% - post GE low
RES: 2.9%

https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi

Reform now 3rd in latest Lord Ashcroft poll

Lab: 27% ( +6 )
Con: 23% ( +2 )
Ref: 18% ( -3 )
Grn: 15% ( -2 )
Lib: 8% ( -1 )

Ashcroft asks a different question, in attempt to extrapolate more data.

It's about who you would consider voting for at next election. So... This far out, it's possibly not best time to lump on based upon it. (unless Burnham does go very very early)

NEW: The latest YouGov poll has Reform UK at its lowest level since the 2024 election

LAB: 24% (+2)
RFM: 22% (-1)
CON: 21% (+2)
GRN: 12% (-1)
LDM: 11% (-1)
RES: 4% (=)

9-10 Aug
Changes w/ 2-3 Aug

New Westminster Poll

LAB: 30% (+6%)
REF: 23% (-3%)
CON: 18% (nc)
GRN: 12% (-1%)
LDM: 9% (-2%)
RES: 4% (+4%)
SNP: 3% (nc)
PC: 1% (-1%)
OTH: 1% (+1%)

Polled by - Ipsos
Aug 4th - Aug 5th 2026
Polled - 1033 people

Reform are 3.45/3.5 for General election most seats on here. This is free money.

Free money lay you mean

Aug 11, 2026 -- 11:48AM, pandora1963 wrote:

Free money lay you mean

Correct.

The damage has been done. They are mired in financial shenanigans and the bin will be recycled forever.

Tories will be the big threat to Burnham next GE, not reform

Almondbury (Kirklees) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 43.9% (+14.5)
RFM: 27.0% (-10.0)
CON: 13.2% (+4.4)
GRN: 8.7% (-8.0)
LAB: 4.5% (-3.4)
Ind: 2.6% (New)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.

JL Partners
@JLPartnersPolls
·
18h
NEW: Labour moves to a 3-point lead over Reform in our latest voting intention

LAB 28% (+1)
REF 25% (-)
CON 21% (+1)
LDEM 10% (-2)
GRN 9% (-1)
OTH 8% (+1)

8th-11th August | 2,016 GB adults | Changes on 1st-3rd August

Almondbury (Kirklees) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 43.9% (+14.5)
RFM: 27.0% (-10.0)
CON: 13.2% (+4.4)
GRN: 8.7% (-8.0)
LAB: 4.5% (-3.4)
Ind: 2.6% (New)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.

Lib Dems taking a seat from Regorm, I didn't hear about that, guess it was on the same day as the binface-farage clown festival in clacton.


Was this a by election because it was one of the seats Reform won in May and immediately decided they didn't really want the job and resigned?

There were 10 or 20 incidents of reform winning and immediately resigning as they were candidates on paper only and not actually candidates who wanted to improve things on the council.

UK - Next General Election -- Overall Majority

9 Runners            £407,252 Matched

			101.6%		99.4%
No Overall Majority	1.63	1.64	1.65		1.66	1.67	1.68	£192,408
	£7	£48	£26		£2	£73	£306
Labour Majority	5.7	5.8	5.9		6	6.2	6.4	£57,851
	£20	£237	£4		£113	£29	£2
Reform UK Majority	9.4	9.6	9.8		10.5	11	11.5	£100,548
	£3	£136	£2		£10	£95	£20
Conservatives Majority	9	9.2	9.4		9.6	9.8	10	£19,432
	£550	£212	£26		£52	£7	£113
Restore Britain Majority	42	50	55		60	70	75	£20,216
	£106	£1	£2		£9	£5	£2
plus 4 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+4)
REF: 22% (=)
CON: 20% (=)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 9% (-2)

via Trajectory Partnership, 5-12 Aug

(Changes with 16 Jul)

Did you or did you not receive an emergency notification on Friday (14 August), with your smartphone emitting a loud 10 second siren noise? If you do not have a smartphone, please select N/A

I did
78
%
I did not
20
%
N/A: I do not have a smartphone
1
%


Do you think the government were right or wrong to use the emergency notification system to warn people about the risk of wildfires in England and Wales?

They were right to do so
53
%
They were wrong to do so
35
%
Don't know
12
%











% (voters by party) saying government were right to send alert
2024 Lab: 63%
2024 Grn: 58%
2024 LD: 54%
2024 Con: 52%
2024 Ref: 32%

Yougov

YouGov
@YouGov
·
30m
Andy Burnham's latest net favourability rating of +13 (13-14 August 2026) is the highest recorded by our tracker for a prime minister since the surge in Boris Johnson's popularity in the initial weeks of the Coronavirus pandemic

I'm not a big fan of Andy but he is way more of a people person than that fraud farage.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-2)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-10 Aug.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-2)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-10 Aug.

That's the first time I've seen RFM at the top of the polls for many months.

Do you think the uplift is in response to their Monday press conference where they promised to increase immigration
by removing Labours increased barriers to businesses importing and employing foreign workers.


It was a surprise to me as I thought RFMers wanted to reduce immigration.

I think it's just drag on the policies for by election and statistical error over a series of polls.

3% error on each of these polls, and it's worrying if they start getting too close to
each other, as they should show varience within the limits, with some outside the margin too...

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
LAB: 23% (+1)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 14% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 19 Aug.
Changes w/ 12 Aug.

RFM 26% (=)
LAB 26% (+1)
CON 18% (-1)
LD 10% (-1)
GRN 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (=)
RB 2% (=)
PC 1% (-1)
OTH 4% (=)

F/w 18 August 2026. Changes vs 13/08/2026

Survation.

Should  Harry and Megan move back to uk..

They should: 21%
They should not: 33%

Don't know: 45%

Yougov 20th Aug.

Should  Harry and Megan move back to uk..

They should: 21%
They should not: 33%

Don't know: 45%

Yougov 20th Aug.

like it makes a broken twiglet of difference to anyone other than the media circus are going to be shoving this baby food down everyones throat intensively for weeks, months, years.

Just a question to ask folk during their survey.

Helps survey company more than us, but I found it interesting enough to record.

Thread is all a pinch of salt.

apologies, no offence intended, I'll just have to get used to the increased spoon feeding of hello magazine type baby food gloop to the masses as it fills all the top spots in the news and media.

Non taken, it's a question they know, or suspect, forms a link to other stuff, so a new way to test accuracy.

Maybe they'll follow up in a couple of months to
see if the bombardment sways opinion.

Penistone East (Barnsley) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 51.6% (+14.4)
RFM: 23.8% (-6.7)
CON: 11.6% (-7.6)
RES: 6.5% (New)
Ind: 2.6% (New)
LDM: 2.1% (-3.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-5.6)
Ind: 0.2% (New)

Labour GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

St Neots Eynesbury (Huntingdonshire) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 47.9% (+29.8)
RFM: 30.3% (+3.1)
CON: 6.7% (-3.8)
GRN: 5.5% (-12.5)
LAB: 4.9% (New)
Ind: 4.8% (New)

No Ind (-26.2) as previous.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.