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Government worrying about a second wave....
Government worrying about a second wave....
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Replies: 73
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They are all guessing to a large degree. Are we risk managers or gamblers?
So many variables nobody could possibly claim to have the right answers |
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so of the argument is simply how many old folk you are prepared to see die to limit damage to the economy that will lead to deaths in years to come .
no right answers for sure. |
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some of the
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I think you missing the point, proponents of the lockdown made no subtle arguments about social structure, they said the coronavirus was highly contagious and unless we lockdown it would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths per country, Sweden included.
The only difference is that...up to now.... Sweden has chosen to ignore that advice. |
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No right answer along with no PPE and agency workers
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you are missing the point
sweden has had more deaths than if they locked down. they seem, at the moment to find it acceptable. |
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It was only when Sweden decided to ignore the advice that people started dreaming up reasons why you can't compare it to other Countries.
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we in the uk do not lock down every flu season , even for the average 10,000 or so deaths
it is deemed acceptable |
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And you know that how? as you said earlier you can't run the two along side each other.
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because of the old folk dying in care homes in sweden , higher than in norway and finland, as per my previous post.
not all tesyed, and not added to offical fiures which are still high. |
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Sweden counts coronavirus deaths in care homes but many countries do not
2:37 min My Share Published torsdag 16 april kl 11.00 Swedish Radio News reports many countries in Europe and in the United States are mostly recording COVID-19 deaths from hospitals, and don't include deaths from nursing homes or other long-term care facilities. In Sweden, however, deaths from the coronavirus at nursing homes are counted toward the official tally of how many have died from the disease. For example, Stockholm medical officials said a third of deaths recorded last week came from nursing home residents. If someone is showing symptoms for the coronavirus but dies before a test is carried out, it's up to the attending physician to decide whether or not to carry out a test post-mortem. |
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yes counted, not all tested, well done
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General advice wasn't it, don't recall Sweden being exempted, seems to make people very angry that Sweden won't fall into line.
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How long do you think it will take before we can test sufficient numbers?
We need to work |
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if it works for sweden then great, unless you are old in a care home.
we seem to be miles behind with testing, but testing without using the results is a waste. |
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Do you think covid-19 will disappear?
Do you think a vaccine will be around any time soon? We could have another peak soon after a return. We must get fit, healthy and able bodies back to work |
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With Boris in charge it would be incompetent to rule out a third or even a 5th wave,
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Not sure how we can stop a 2nd wave hitting the UK you can impose social distancing but given the behaviour of people in this country people will ignore it and think life will be back to normal. It only takes a a small percentage to do that and it will spread again! The government know how hard it will be to lock everyone down again so can see them being extra cautious and keeping us locked in as long as possible and seeing what happens to other countries. This lockdown has worked its primary objective which is to make sure the NHS isnt over run. I know people who work at our local hospital who have never seen it so queit admittedly that is in the South West which has the lowest amount of cases. Surely herd immunity will be the only way out of the situation as we go forward and the UK may not face as big a 2nd wave due to not locking down as early as other countries.
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People who support the lockdown, which ironically includes both the Government and the people who hate the government, can never be wrong, because however many die, it would always have been more but for the lockdown.
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Is it your opinion that if there had been no lockdown, the death figures would have be the same or lower than with a lockdown ?
To help you with your response, I have included below an example of an earlier response you made to an easily verifiable fact that you had challenged some five hours after the initial post. tobermory • April 19, 2020 7:51 PM BST Apr 19, 2020 -- 2:57PM, Angoose wrote: Apparently, Gordon Brown chaired all of the COBRA meetings held to discuss the foot and mouth crisis.Damian McBride@DPMcBrideDuring the Foot & Mouth crisis in 2007, GB didn’t just attend every COBRA meeting, he chaired them all. There were no 'experts' telling him when to tune in. If that's what we got from a PM for a disease that didn't even threaten human life, was it too much to ask for Coronavirus? The foot and mouth crisis was in 2001. If Brown was chairing COBRA meetings then where was Blair ? Playing tennis |
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I think you may have read that wrong angoose. Not sure that is his opinion.
I think what may have happened is they wanted to go fo4 Herd Immunity straight away but panicked hence the confusing messages and strategy. I think the lockdown came too late to be as successful as it could have been but late as it was no doubt it has saved some lives in the short term and the NHS from being overrun. We are not even discussing the economy at the moment. This can is being kicked down the road in the same way as the medical response has been. It will come back to haunt us. People are more aware of the dangers now and hand washing is proving the most effective tool against fighting this disease. Stress is a killer too. There is going to be a lot is stress floating around soon when people are losing their business, jobs and homes. The problem with testing is gong to be a major problem still |
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surely anything we do here is lessened by letting plane loads in everyday from infected countrys?
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Exactly
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Based on an Irish report 9 waves and 3 cycles of infection required to reach herd immunity (60% of pop) between 6%-17% will be affected during the current outbreak.
Current outbreak ought to finish mid June with cases falling away in May. The path of social distancing and goverment restrictions may stay in place until the pandemic is over. Uk is a different case though,crowded transport,v high density population, i'm not sure in the near term until the new cases start getting low and then social distancing and masks are mandatory,will still be enforced. It does look hopefully if the peak has been reached but Italy has as well and that is going on so long. Lifting of borders going to be a problem for a while as well until countries are relatively clear. Plenty of touting for services like building,rubbish,deliveries of tat ongoing on fb,who wants them if they aren't working.Bit going on despite lockdown all the same. I can't see much re a gradual lifting til June myself. |
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More or less deaths due to the lockdown? It's a morbid but interesting question and probably the one that will be argued over for years to come.
Will there be a final death figure? it will probably only ever be an estimate because some will argue that many corona victim were missed, as will the lives saved only ever be an estimate, because no one will be able to say how many deaths occurred due to the lockdown, deaths that wouldn't have happen if not for the lockdown. |
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The coronavirus death toll in the UK could be 40% higher than reported, the Office for National Statistics has said.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it recorded 13,121 deaths in England by April 10, and registered up to April 18. This is 41% higher than the 9,288 people who died in UK hospitals during the same period reported by the Department of Health. ONS announced there were 18,516 deaths of all causes in the week ending April 10, which is the biggest total in that week in modern history, and the biggest of any week since 2000. For all deaths registered up to April 10, 10,350 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate. This compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in the previous week. Care home deaths have doubled in the past four weeks, ONS data suggests, a rise by 2,456, which a 99.4% increase.. |
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There is only one health outcome.
The most important think is not the length of our lives but, if it was, the suspicion still would be that the lockdown will be more damaging than covid-19; the long-term cumulative effect of over-indulgence, boredom, lack of exercise, lack of schooling, lack of stimulation, social contact and adventure on 60 million people. Just the fact that people are no longer troubling doctors with minor ailments nor letting dentists take care of their teeth are factors with long term consequences. Not to mention impoverishment. |
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"Surely herd immunity will be the only way out of the situation as we go forward and the UK may not face as big a 2nd wave due to not locking down as early as other countries." But how are you ever going to get herd immunity if you have lockdown?
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Interesting to know how many people are dying from flu during The lockdown
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corona deaths badly under reported and when expert above gets true figures he will surely
change his opinion. government ineptitude on ppe is going to stop people getting face masks and so will lead to more deaths elect clowns get carnage |
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the flu season was nearly over a couple of weeks before lockdown
must have taken a fair few all the same, and some folk must have had flu and corona virus...at a guess that would be a horrid outcome |
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