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...and it leading to a second lockdown.
WTF would you go for a second lockdown when it was obvious the first one didn't work? what, you keep repeating it in the hope of a different result.
WTF would you go for a second lockdown when it was obvious the first one didn't work? what, you keep repeating it in the hope of a different result.
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The 1st has worked because the NHS hasn't gone into complete overload with staff unable to cope with the numbers of patients that were feared .. social distancing has done its job to date
The Gov't failed to deal with the problem at the outset & now the are afraid of using release measures because of fear if we need another lockdown ... What are they doing now .. waiting to see what the results are in other European countries and hoping they don't suffer from a re-emergence of Covid They are reacting to everything and not being pro-active .... a clear sign of poor Government ... what did anyone expect with a charlatan at the helm |
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Point is the first one is working. Problem will be if we re-open too soon, don't make the necessary testing etc and then have to lock down again. That would really put the tin hat on an amazing feat of mismanagement.
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Was it only about the NHS, I thought the idea of the lockdown was to starve the virus of its victims and thereby prevent the spread.
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a 3rd wave a 4th wave, it will be a year plus, have to keep the R down, it takes time and effort.
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The source of the Bliar virus was on TV again today. He might have been talking sense but I don't know as I couldn't hear him for all the abuse I was shouting at the screen.
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That's true I think but it was only after they admitted defeat in the containment phase. Once the virus was allowed to land here and spread without any checks then the next step was to limit it to ensure hospitals weren't overwhelmed.
Presumably the point of any exit strategy is that we go back to the position we were in in late feb but this time make more than a feeble attempt at containment. The virus doesn't follow protocol and if you've got 20 infected in London then it can quickly mushroom into thousands again within days. If you want to avoid another lockdown then you need to all but eradicate the virus this time round. |
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If you want to avoid another lockdown then you need to all but eradicate the virus this time round.
A true statement of fact and something that wont be happening. |
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Would we be looking at 3rd and 4th lockdowns, or will it depend on the situation with the NHS?
Sounds like herd immunity, but in stages. |
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Other than a vaccine the only real hope is to have testing on a major scale & that isn't likely for some months ... realistically the economy cannot wait for that length of time so we need some release mechanism whilst still keeping the virus under control so a 2nd or more waves don't add to the pressures on the NHS - social distancing does work but if we move back to as we were before then another spike is almost certain
Its a real problem; perhaps application of restrictions within different regions for specific periods might be a short term benefit so we have some continuity of normal life |
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should be less gatherings by choice, the public is better informed
but the lockdown is rightly extended had we locked down sooner we would still have 10,000 people alive, and be looking to lift the lockdown in stages from now. |
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Some of them would have died of other things. Some of them probably did die of other things.
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My mum's best friend would still be here. She was as fit as a fiddle and only caught it in her last few days at work. Still, some people see underlying issues as "deserves to die" if their chosen poltics suit.
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some of them 20,000 would have died, but at least 10,000 would still be alive had we locked down with due haste.
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we need to get masks ready for opening up the country, it should be a priority
they are easy to make if you cant buy one, government really needs to get this message across to keep future waves of infection as small as possible |
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I hear a good analogy used to describe easing lockdown measures too early just the other day.
It made a comparison to taking a parachute jump. You jump out of the plane, and you quickly accelerate and reach a very high terminal velocity. You pull the ripcord on your parachute, and you gradually decelerate until you are in control and moving slowly. You then cut the cords on your parachute.  |
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or breaking in a car when seeing a traffic jam ahead of you.
lift your foot off break too soon, or hit accelerate having slowed .... bang! |
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I wasn’t sure bLiar offered that much in the interview. He is a clever man, however, and should be listened to but we should remember experts are not always right.
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Boris Johnson's government was "probably slow" in its early response to the coronavirus, Tony Blair has said.
The former prime minister also told Sky News that he "can't see any way out" of the COVID-19 lockdown without mass testing of the public. It comes as his Tony Blair Foundation for Global Change laid out a possible exit plan for easing the coronavirus restrictions brought in last month. Mr Blair, who was in office from 1997 to 2007, said the outbreak was the "most complicated and difficult challenge I have ever seen in politics". And he said his intention in publishing a possible exit strategy was done in the spirit of offering "constructive advice" to Mr Johnson. Mr Blair's plan includes: - Mass testing of the public, "including the development of the community force" to help with the process - Ensuring there is "mask acquisition and production on a vast scale" for front-line staff - On the development of a vaccine, the report calls for "utilisation of every means nationally and globally to identify those treatments which can reduce the severity of the disease" - Once new cases fall substantially, the UK could consider easing restrictions by opening schools first - Age segmentation could be implemented, with younger people at much lower risk being allowed to go back to work sooner - In his Sky interview, the former PM suggested tasking a senior minister with specific elements of the COVID-19 response, such as provision of personal protective equipment and mass testing |
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They are usually correct far more often than that Bojo idiot.
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I have seen better experts on this forum than those in charge and when scientists say they have seen no evidence that masks have any beneficial effect I just want to shout Liar.
I remember JVT stating this and it seemed clear to me he didn’t want the public buying masks bLiar has not come out with anything new. Members here have stated all these things possibly even about a global vaccine cure. You don’t need a degree In the art of the bleedin’ obvious...........or maybe you do! The scientists and Politicians have shown very little common sense. |
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Take your pick with experts/ professors, there's one for every point of view
Is the one below right or wrong? UK coronavirus outbreak peaked before 'unnecessary' lockdown, claims Oxford Uni professor Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine, says the UK should lift its lockdown, which he claims is going to cause more damage than coronavirus ByMatthew Dresch 14:52, 20 APR 2020 NEWS Professor Carl Heneghan claims the Government is listening to the wrong scientific advice An Oxford University professor claims Britain's coronavirus outbreak peaked before the 'unnecessary' lockdown was put in place. Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine, believes infections were at their highest around mid-March - 21 days before the country recorded its worst day for deaths on April 8. NHS England reported 803 coronavirus deaths on April 8, the highest number of fatalities announced in a single day so far, with fatalities appearing to fall on the days after that. The figure is not concrete as it may be updated in the future - and it also only covers deaths in hospitals. Professor Heneghan has accused the Government of listening to the wrong scientific advice - and urged leaders to lift the lockdown. Professor Heneghan says Sweden has not suffered a 'doomsday scenario' despite resisting lockdown He told Mail Online : "The UK Government keeps saying it is using the best science. "But it appears to be losing sight of what’s actually going on. We’ve been getting scientific advice that is consistently wrong. "It has failed to look at all the data and understand when the peak of infections actually occurred." He said infections dropped by 50 per cent between March 16 - when the Government launched a hand washing and social distancing drive - and the lockdown on March 24. NHS England figures appear to show deaths from the virus peaked on April 8 The expert said the prediction models used by the scientists often proved to be 'some way out' and insisted that the lockdown will be more damaging for the UK than coronavirus. Professor Heneghan pointed to Sweden as an example of a country that had 'held its nerve' in resisting lockdown and was not suffering a 'doomsday scenario'. He urged the Government to reopen society, warning that the restrictions would have a severe impact on the economy and people's mental and physical health. The practising GP told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The key is no-one has really understood how many people actually have the infection. "You could do that really quickly with random sampling of a thousand people in London who thought they had the symptoms. "You could do that in the next couple of days and get a really key handle on that problem and we'd be able to then understand coming out of lockdown much quicker. "In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus." DailyMirror Follow @DailyMirror |
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Take your pick with experts/ professors, there's one for every point of view
Is the one below right or wrong? UK coronavirus outbreak peaked before 'unnecessary' lockdown, claims Oxford Uni professor Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine, says the UK should lift its lockdown, which he claims is going to cause more damage than coronavirus ByMatthew Dresch 14:52, 20 APR 2020 NEWS Professor Carl Heneghan claims the Government is listening to the wrong scientific advice An Oxford University professor claims Britain's coronavirus outbreak peaked before the 'unnecessary' lockdown was put in place. Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine, believes infections were at their highest around mid-March - 21 days before the country recorded its worst day for deaths on April 8. NHS England reported 803 coronavirus deaths on April 8, the highest number of fatalities announced in a single day so far, with fatalities appearing to fall on the days after that. The figure is not concrete as it may be updated in the future - and it also only covers deaths in hospitals. Professor Heneghan has accused the Government of listening to the wrong scientific advice - and urged leaders to lift the lockdown. Professor Heneghan says Sweden has not suffered a 'doomsday scenario' despite resisting lockdown He told Mail Online : "The UK Government keeps saying it is using the best science. "But it appears to be losing sight of what’s actually going on. We’ve been getting scientific advice that is consistently wrong. "It has failed to look at all the data and understand when the peak of infections actually occurred." He said infections dropped by 50 per cent between March 16 - when the Government launched a hand washing and social distancing drive - and the lockdown on March 24. NHS England figures appear to show deaths from the virus peaked on April 8 The expert said the prediction models used by the scientists often proved to be 'some way out' and insisted that the lockdown will be more damaging for the UK than coronavirus. Professor Heneghan pointed to Sweden as an example of a country that had 'held its nerve' in resisting lockdown and was not suffering a 'doomsday scenario'. He urged the Government to reopen society, warning that the restrictions would have a severe impact on the economy and people's mental and physical health. The practising GP told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The key is no-one has really understood how many people actually have the infection. "You could do that really quickly with random sampling of a thousand people in London who thought they had the symptoms. "You could do that in the next couple of days and get a really key handle on that problem and we'd be able to then understand coming out of lockdown much quicker. "In fact, the damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus." DailyMirror Follow @DailyMirror |
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Yes, potless, I heard your guy on the radio this morning.
What he said made more sense to me than Govt "strategy." |
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In collaboration with the British Medical Journal, Carl Heneghan and team found no evidence that Tamiflu helped to reduce complications of influenza.[6][7] This has become a controversial topic, as the United Kingdom government spend £473 million on the purchase of Tamiflu, despite the systematic review[8] claiming to find no evidence for the effectiveness of it.[9]
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Did he present any evidence to support his claims
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Just by washing our hands less people are dying from flu
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there was a self imposed lockdown before it was made official. folk saw spain and italy for themselves.
government did issue some advice before later enforcing their own recommendations is he really suggesting if nothing had been done we would have had less deaths ......or same amount,.... (or more)? the figures had us going up to 200k deaths not 20k, and folk playing down the danger led to the outbreaks we still see. we could try opening up now, the 200k should not happen due to awareness, but some smaller outbreaks would be sure to happen, which will surely be even smaller if we give it another three weeks. smaller still if we emerge with masks |
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Get him into court, ask him the questions under oath
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there are no right answers that would stand up in court, we cant run the experiment side by side in parallel universes.
i'd rather save 180k lives and work on mental health issues that may arise, and deal with finances. some folk see loss of life as acceptable, ...i dont agree with it. |
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He was interviewed for four minutes. One thing he said that did ring true was that the modelling was so wide to be almost meaningless. Govt are taking their cue from the modellers at Imperial and they predicted an unmitigated death toll of 20,000 to 500,000. Everyone focuses on the 1/2 m figure..the eventual figure may be 20,000 and the Imperial team can say they were right all along.
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I think we have been in lockdown long enough. We should be looking to get people back to work. Continue with social distancing where possible. Provide sanitizer in the street ffs and on or near mass transit points. Stop unnecessary air travel for now. Take temperatures T airports and impose quarantine conditions on them. Tag them if necessary.
We know more about the virus now. We know the critical importance of hand washing and imho people on tubes, trains and buses should be wearing masks. I personally would make it compulsory for the first two weeks. If people are not prepared to wear a mask for the safety of fellow passengers they should be free to walk anywhere they want. |
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I think the professor would argue that the experiments are running side by side, hence his reference to Sweden.
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if he had the correct figures ( not yet available) and not government massaged figures which are bandied about
then he may well change his mind. sweden and uk are different countries with different infrastructures, ...apples and oranges |
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Einhorn was one of 22 researchers who on Tuesday called for Sweden’s politicians to break with the country’s tradition of entrusting policy to its expert agencies, and to seize control of Sweden’s coronavirus strategy from the agency.
She argues that the reason why Sweden has a much higher number of cases in care homes than in Norway and Finland is not because of the homes but because of Sweden’s decision to keep schools and kindergartens open, and not to shut restaurants or bars. so another expert , another idea, and if death is acceptable do like the swedes... lena einhorn is a virologist, and sweden like uk are not testing all deaths in care homes |
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Sweden currently running at 156 deaths per million of population, Germany is at 56.
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I don't think the modelling made any distinctions regarding social stuctures or infrastructures, it was basically follow our advice or else.
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no it was specific to the data arriving, couldnt be more specific. but with lessons from elsewhere.
other countries are lifting lockdown, but we are aware of uk specific conditions to the virus and are not. the medicine is tailored to the patient. |
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one specific condition considered was the state of nhs after 10 years of tory austerity that
sweden may or may not have suffered but left uk with dreadful stats for hospital beds |