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politicspunter
20 Feb 19 13:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 32,534 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport+West

Surely the tiggers are going to have to show their hand in this battle?
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Report yajyaj April 3, 2019 8:30 PM BST
There's a quick 50 of mine for you, your welcome Happy
Report thegiggilo April 3, 2019 8:33 PM BST
What price are the tories without labour.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 8:33 PM BST
Mines is the 70 at 2.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 8:34 PM BST

Apr 3, 2019 -- 2:33PM, thegiggilo wrote:


What price are the tories without labour.


currently 1.66

Report yajyaj April 3, 2019 9:24 PM BST
Come on punter, you can do better that that, their "friendless" under 5, meet you half way at 2.25 ?
Report yajyaj April 3, 2019 10:17 PM BST
Sod it I took the 2.1, flip flop coming soon I reckon
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 8:10 AM BST
Just saw this. If anyone wishes matched on UKIP at 2.1 v the tories, best go to Betway where you will be accommodated commission free.
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 8:20 AM BST
cheers punter, last matched on here at 5 Shocked
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 8:59 AM BST
No probs. The prices have gone crazy so if you are happy to wait, you can usually get matched at a better price.
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 9:22 AM BST
This seat voted 53-47 to leave in the EU referendum. Will be interesting to see how the results compare to that.
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 10:16 AM BST
Yes, turnout will be interesting too, GE 67%, what would you expect by election to attract given NO brexit motivation
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 10:30 AM BST
Is that you trying to back tories for £759 and lay ukip to lose £759 ?
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 10:30 AM BST
1.25 without labour ukip..
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 10:33 AM BST
reckon thats punter going "all in" on the tories Happy
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 10:36 AM BST
Anything to watch for at Aintree today gigg
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 10:48 AM BST
Don't bet on jump racing,stopped over 12 years ago its impossible to do the aw and flat and sticks its impossible keeping track of the turf on its own so much racing now,have been doing it for over 20years uoto 20 hours aday in the summer,might be my last season.
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 10:54 AM BST
yajyaj, got a pretty balanced book now so no, that's not my £759. I will have a really bad day if UKIP win/ finish 2nd. Any other result is good.
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 10:55 AM BST
Just a bit of fun for me, I have had periods where I have enjoyed us racing and done ok though, do you   get involved with us ?
Report yajyaj April 4, 2019 11:00 AM BST
Punter, rather you than me, I cant even work out who the fav is at the moment ffs, I do expect and hope for a motivated "leaver" event, last night could be the "kick up the arze" to remind them to get out and vote ukip # the country is watching
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 11:17 AM BST
A tory collapse is expected that's for sure and reading articles lots of labour voters aren't voting labour either could be an extremely strange result with the desperate weather as well,can't see this turnout being much...
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 11:20 AM BST
Only uk racing,at the moment am not betting much the aw cards have been dire for a couple of months if i see any guaranteed shorteners i will chuck them on here,won £800 on port soif trading yesterday but ended up winning nothing on the race as i backed that luath ew and backed siomethng else in the race in forecasts,they looked like being 1,2,3 coming into the straight ended up coming 3,4,5 books were paying 4 places as well desperate luck again.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 11:21 AM BST
the reports about now are influenced by the spin masters of the partys


unless you have a recent local poll from a reputable company its tough
to sort the wheat from the chaff
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 11:26 AM BST
No local polls at all so can only go on past election results in this seat plus current UK and Wales polls.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 11:30 AM BST
..good luck pp

you are braver than me
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 12:33 PM BST
I would prefer just to be luckier!
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 1:01 PM BST
1.06 now tories to be 2nd..
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 1:01 PM BST
1.06 now tories to be 2nd..
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 1:14 PM BST
Was looking at labour win,1.2 tories...
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 1:45 PM BST
Been trying to find up to date turnout figures for the vote today. If anyone finds anything official/unofficial/rumour could they post it here please.
Report xmoneyx April 4, 2019 3:22 PM BST
The Commons has now adjourned for the rest of the day because the leak of water into the chamber.
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 5:57 PM BST
Apparently it is lashing down in Newport. This could be a very low turnout.
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 5:59 PM BST
Suits the tories, they are rich so have cars and can drive to the polling station.

That was told to me years ago and in days gone by might have been a lot of truth in it.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 6:36 PM BST
elections on a thursday because the poor folk are out shopping ...Mischief
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 8:03 PM BST
Anyone else think this could be close?
Report mafeking April 4, 2019 9:05 PM BST
1.11 been matched recently. would imagine the turn out will be low with the dire weather today. rarely get 50% at by elections in any case and that exactly much enthusiasm for the 2 main parties at the moment

10000 might be enough to win
Report mafeking April 4, 2019 9:06 PM BST
not much enthusiasm
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 9:13 PM BST
I agree that 10000 could win it and that's why it could be close. Apathy, anger, weather, multiple protest candidates to me suggest that Labour are still favourites but would you want to take 1.05 or worse?
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 9:21 PM BST
BTW the tories got 17065 here at the last election.
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 9:23 PM BST
There's going to be an unusual looking result definitely,just don't know which partys are going to suffer the most,labour look a ridiculous price with poor turnout they might only win this by a 1000 votes,i can see a fair few partys with quite close votes..
Report mafeking April 4, 2019 9:24 PM BST
was surprised at that when i looked at the result from 2017. lazily assumed it was safe labour seat being in south wales and apparently a very popular long standing MP

you wouldn't imagine the winning margin will be more than a couple of thousand
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 9:24 PM BST
Tories are currently 40 and more on here which is a ludicrous price.
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 9:48 PM BST
70s the tories,it looks like lots of partys are going to gain votes the winner might win this with a small % of vote..
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 9:56 PM BST
Labour were only 5% ahead of tories on a poll on april 3rd....Shocked
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 10:22 PM BST
i went to a wedding in newport when i was living in cardiff

missed the last bus, train backSad

had to get a taxi and persuade driver to take a cheque..did i really have
a cheque book at a wedding? lol times change.

great funCool


no news seemingly about the result, no insiders spilling the beans on twitter
yet, although andrew neil advertising his programme tonite.

smells like no shocks...famous last words Shocked
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 10:33 PM BST
The most interesting thing is how much ukip vote has picked up,this should be ripe for them in present times if they don't poll well in this sort of seat leave area with tories in disarray then would be ominous for any sort of revival even short term..
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 10:34 PM BST
Totally agree.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 11:43 PM BST
tories 2 s on to beat ukip on here

surely they have seen some ballot papers by now?
Report politicspunter April 4, 2019 11:45 PM BST
Just started counting after the initial verification exercise
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 11:47 PM BST
1) Turnout looking to be poor, as expected.
2) Labour confident of a hold, but anticipating a much reduced majority.
3) Tories certain they've come second.
4) Declaration due between 1am and 3am
Report thegiggilo April 4, 2019 11:55 PM BST
So close now on about a recount wtf...
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 11:59 PM BST
could be recounts over somebody losing a deposit!
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 12:01 AM BST
Siôn Jenkins


@Sion_J
12m12 minutes ago
More
A couple of sources here tell me it’s looking very close between Labour and Conservative. So close, in fact, that they were predicting a recount! (Far too early to be making such predictions, if you ask me!)
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:03 AM BST
Maybe Miss Jenkins works for the tories...
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 12:05 AM BST
would be fun if it happened,
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 12:05 AM BST
better get another can in the fridge just in case...
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 12:08 AM BST
It's a he, welsh journalist..
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:09 AM BST
Sorry, it's a fella.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:20 AM BST
Turnout is 37.1%
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:22 AM BST
10000 will win this.
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 12:27 AM BST
All predictable as well,a turnout like that anyone can win and always against labour party how they wree ever those stupid prices was insane..
Report mafeking April 5, 2019 12:31 AM BST
around 24000 voters then
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:35 AM BST
23615
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 12:37 AM BST
What a farce that is someones prediction on twitter..

prediction for the Newport West by-election:

Labour: 29%
Conservatives: 27%
UKIP: 22%
PC: 7%
LD: 3%
Grn: 2%
For Britain: 10%
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:42 AM BST
Is it Gerald Batten?
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 12:58 AM BST
John curtce talking bollox,anyone could see this was going to be close on a poor turnout,curtice saying ukip vote would be good at 8% is he having a laugh we knew they would get at least 15%,what a bluffer..
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:00 AM BST
Something wierd going on here hamilton saying he would be happy with 8%?
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:05 AM BST
politics !
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:08 AM BST
If they get 15% they will be saying what a great result for ukip,pretty obvious in a leave seat with 37% turnout and a brexit crisis 75% of labour voters just sat at home..
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:08 AM BST
betting suggests its done and dusted

but its been wrong before
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:27 AM BST
7350 con
2700 kipper
9300 lab

nice won pp

some small parties well!
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:27 AM BST
did well
Report mafeking April 5, 2019 1:28 AM BST
can't be many by elections won with 9000 votes
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:28 AM BST
Like finding it on the street,pity there's such little money in the markets..
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:28 AM BST
Like finding it on the street,pity there's such little money in the markets..
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:28 AM BST
other parties must be gutted that less than 10k got an mp here!
Report mafeking April 5, 2019 1:29 AM BST
minor parties trebled their vote from 2017. up from 10% to 30%
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:31 AM BST
if ukips have voted tory, they won!
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 1:38 AM BST
Nice overall for me but the icing on the cake was...

politicspunter • February 28, 2019 7:23 PM GMT
Also had some of Ladbrokes 30-40% Labour vote share at 9.5, now down to 6.0.

Labour vote share was 39.6%.
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 1:41 AM BST
CoolCool
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:46 AM BST
I got 7/1 on that the grand total of £200,that's the problem just can't get a decent bet on,makes things interesting though while racings rubbish..
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 1:50 AM BST
nice one
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 1:59 AM BST
Anyone would think labour lost,win by 9% on a poor turnout i'd be amazed if they didn't near enough doubled that in a general election,going on about ukips 8% i was amazed they didn;t get higher with more off the tories...why do they read so much into these by elections..Glad you cleaned up,pity there's such little money in the markets on here.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 9:11 AM BST
Now that the smoke has cleared, a chance to look at the result. Labour will be delighted to have hung on here. Paul Flynn was a popular MP and his legacy probably contributed to carrying them over the line. Corbyn, down in the UK and Wales polls, low turnout etc was a banana skin that they just managed to avoid. Conservatives actually did pretty well, all things considered. They must be wondering if they could maybe have won this if it weren't for UKIP. Con and UKIP vote tally combined was greater than Labour's victory mark. UKIP have to ask themselves a straight question- Do we wish to see a leave supporting candidate returned to Westminster? If the answer is yes then they shouldn't stand against one who has a decent chance of winning the seat. All of the other smaller parties did ok, particularly Renew who were competing in their first election I believe.

LAB-S&D: 38.6% (-12.7)
CON-ECR: 31.3% (-8.0)
UKIP-ENF: 8.6% (+6.1)
PC-G/EFA: 5.0% (+2.5)
LDEM-ALDE: 4.6% (+2.4)
Greens-G/EFA: 3.9% (+2.9)
Renew-EPP: 3.7% (+3.7)
SDP-EFDD: 0.9% (+0.9)
ATWAP-*: 0.9% (+0.9)
D&V-*: 0.8% (+0.8)
FBM-*: 0.7% (+0.7)
Report yajyaj April 5, 2019 10:44 AM BST
Nice one punter, couldn't lend us a fiver could you Happy
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 10:58 AM BST
Never mind, should be another by election shortly in Peterborough and that is toss up country.
Report Foinavon April 5, 2019 11:28 AM BST
What makes you think that in present circumstances UKIP voters would have voted Tory? Were there not a UKIP candidate (nor SDP) a fair number might have abstained. I know that I would have done and I voted Tory last time as I mistakenly thought they would deliver on the referendum result.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 11:34 AM BST
I'm not saying that they all would have voted tory but a substantial number of them would have. Whether it would have given a different result, it's hard to say for certain.
Report yajyaj April 5, 2019 11:59 AM BST
I hope your going to make a chunky donation to the food banks, I'm told nurses are having to use them now Sad
Report Foinavon April 5, 2019 3:04 PM BST
I'm sure that some would have voted tactically PP, but there is an adage "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me". Tories have lost me for good. For the record my preference would be to vote SDP but, faute de mieux, I would hold my nose and vote UKIP rather than Tory or Labour.
Apologies for the late reply but Mrs F dragged me to the supermarket to replenish the emergency "No Deal" reserves before the shelves are cleared after we "crash" out or "Fall off Beachy Head" next week.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 3:22 PM BST
If you look at all the smaller parties down the bottom of the voting order there would probably be quite a few tory protest votes in amongst them. D and V are led by a former UKIP leadership candidate, as is ATWAP. The SDP are of course strong brexiteers and probably the FBM too. If you add the UKIP voting tally to that lot I make it roughly 12%. That's a lot of votes which if the tories had attracted two thirds of them, they would have won.
Report Foinavon April 5, 2019 4:00 PM BST
Very true. You can see why they wouldn't want a general election or participation in a European Parliamentary election.
Report bigpoppapump April 5, 2019 4:17 PM BST
great news that the Tories are being blamed by the hard right.  It certainly appears to be splitting them.

Ordinary folk (people of working age) can get on with life without this disproportionate power being wielded by those with no economic tariff for their 40 year old worldview.
Report Injera April 5, 2019 6:03 PM BST
Very difficult to know who to vote for and why. For years with Blair's move to the centre ground, politics became dull with little to choose between the Big Two.

Now we have division caused by Brexit but people are often reluctant to vote for minority parties based on a principle. People like to be on the horse that wins.

Is Labour a Remain party? Not really. Are the Tories all for leaving? NO!

The economy often drives elections and Corbyn could well be too risky for most.... I can see many voters shutting their eyes and voting Tory..
Report unitedbiscuits April 5, 2019 6:24 PM BST
But not enough. Tories own Brexit and Brexit = failure.
Report unitedbiscuits April 5, 2019 8:18 PM BST
So Labour has retained Newport West with Remain candidate Ruth Jones. Newport voted overwhelmingly to Leave the EU in 2016. We were told that Labour would be destroyed at the ballot box in its heartlands if it shifted on Brexit. Here's an openly Remain candidate winning the seat.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 8:36 PM BST
Peterborough next probably. Depends if requisite numbers sign the recall petition but highly likely. That would be a very close by election and for the moment far too tough to call. Another possible by election is in Brecon and Radnorshire depending on the sentencing fate of the current incumbent. Could be a very difficult defence for the tories where the LibDems would throw the kitchen sink at it.
Report mafeking April 5, 2019 9:49 PM BST
voters don't usually like having to vote in by elections where the previous MP has been up to no good
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 10:17 PM BST
Can't see how labour will hold onto peterborough,could be an east tory win unless labour have some stand out candidate would imagine tiries will be way odds on.
Report thegiggilo April 5, 2019 10:17 PM BST
Can't see how labour will hold onto peterborough,could be an east tory win unless labour have some stand out candidate would imagine tiries will be way odds on.
Report enpassant April 6, 2019 9:46 AM BST
Well done pp- You snuck in on the 30/40% bet !
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