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Dr Crippen
24 Jan 19 10:06
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 46,221 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
As discussed in Parliament recently.

A ‘Managed No Deal’ WTO option using Article 24 of GATT can avoid raising tariffs or quotas''

All explained here.

https://brexitcentral.com/managed-no-deal-wto-option-using-article-24-gatt-can-avoid-raising-tariffs-quotas/

''In the event of No Deal, there is a strong case to maintain preferential tariff and quota rates at zero between the UK and the EU for a limited period – thought to be around two years.''

Time enough I would think to come to some long term trading agreement, free from the negative influence of treacherous UK MPs whose only desire is to avert the will of the people.
And also concentrate the minds of the EU negotiators on meaningful discussions.
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Report donny osmond January 29, 2019 12:04 PM GMT
more abuse noted from akbula, irony lol
Report politicspunter January 29, 2019 12:31 PM GMT

Jan 29, 2019 -- 6:04AM, donny osmond wrote:


more abuse noted from akbula, irony lol


lol, wonder who the fantasy boy akabula wishes me to be today?

Report unitedbiscuits January 29, 2019 12:34 PM GMT
What was your forum name before though, politicspunter?
Report politicspunter January 29, 2019 12:43 PM GMT
before what?
Report unitedbiscuits January 29, 2019 12:47 PM GMT
20 Mar 18
Report politicspunter January 29, 2019 12:49 PM GMT
I assume that was the date I joined the forum.
Report unitedbiscuits January 29, 2019 12:54 PM GMT
I assume you were posting before under a different name.
Report politicspunter January 29, 2019 12:55 PM GMT
No
Report unitedbiscuits January 29, 2019 12:58 PM GMT
Really? But you say you have been on betfair for thirteen years..and lately you're on the forum all day and night. What changed?
Report politicspunter January 29, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
I have been with betfair for a long number of years but it was only after I retired that I joined the forum to pass the time.
Report unitedbiscuits January 29, 2019 1:03 PM GMT
Fair enough. You're certainly making up for lost time.
Report akabula January 29, 2019 11:01 PM GMT
pp is Meadow and throwing in that Meadow post confirmed it for me.

Both notorious aftertimers as well.
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 12:13 AM GMT
they can aftertime as much as they like if they keep putting up solid stuff.
Report akabula January 30, 2019 12:40 AM GMT
What %age of their stuff is solid?
I know you're good with %ages. Grin
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 12:47 AM GMT
aye so long as you spot your mistakes too LaughLaughLaugh

pity i corrected myself, innit
Report akabula January 30, 2019 12:50 AM GMT
Sure was Dianne oops sorry I mean Donny.
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 12:53 AM GMT
oh how funny
Report akabula January 30, 2019 1:00 AM GMT
Laugh
Report politicspunter January 30, 2019 8:06 AM GMT
Who do you wish me to be today , fantasy boy akabula?
Report politicspunter January 30, 2019 8:21 AM GMT
According to akabula, I have active multiple usernames. Serious question, is it possible for one individual on betfair to be able to do that?
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 9:48 AM GMT
its easily possible.

back in the day you could open as many accounts as you wished

it was a race at times to have a new account to have a new forum
name that was topical. any was actually quite funny at times, some
folk must have had 100s of accounts.

if you can remember what username and password you had for that account
then you can still post via that account on the forum.

the one restriction i have found with having different accounts is that some
markets are restricted to your nominated main account...like it was via aussie
wallet.

the account attached to my user name (donny) was opened to play them taikai
challenges that betfair had 10 years or so ago.

back then if you logged into the forum via one account, and opened up
another without logging out of first account, it was pretty random which
username would pop up on forum, so many folk were caught arguing with
themselves or backing themselves up when losing a debate.

there was a restriction of punting £10 before posting on the forum for
a while but laying 1.01 meant that cost 10p and doubtless some folk
self matched anyway!

if you want to talk to yourself nowadays then you can open one account
via say chrome and another via microsoft, ive tried it and it works on my pc.

not found a way to do it on my ipad though!
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 9:50 AM GMT
and was actually quite funny at times
Report Dr Crippen January 30, 2019 11:22 AM GMT
aye so long as you spot your mistakes too LaughLaughLaugh

What I found interesting is that someone would need a calculator to work out 5% of 2,000.

Before calculators were about most people could easily work that out in their heads.

I'm not knocking Donny by the way, it's just that we're depending more and more on stuff like calculators, spell checkers and computers to do things.

I wonder how many betting shop settlers could work out a yankee on a piece of paper using the crash block method?
Image the work load involved in settling the afternoons bets in a typical betting shop in the old days using nothing more than pencil and paper.
Anyone who could do that these days would be regarded as a mathematical wizard.
Report Dr Crippen January 30, 2019 11:32 AM GMT
I remember years ago a friend showed me his new calculator that could work out Trigonometry.
You simply put in the information you had already for the triangle, and all the measurements and angles would come up.
That was like magic at a time when the only way to do Trig was using log tables.
Report politicspunter January 30, 2019 12:07 PM GMT
I agree completely with Crippen that the folks that work in bookie shops now have (mostly) no idea whatsoever how to settle bets, especially multiples or anything involving an each way selection. I don't place many high street bets but when I do, I always check the exact returns before going to collect.  You would be astonished how far off their actual returns can be. I remember once having a football line where I had six selections in a multiple of twenty trebles and an accumulator. Five of the games were postponed and the sixth team won at 5/1. The cashier paid me out on 21 winning lines.
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 1:42 PM GMT
i usually work it out in my head....and certainly work out returns before collecting at bookies
as i dont trust em.

100 out of 2000 sounded too high for the topic under discussion, so i was sort of
agreeing with saddo, and i recently downloaded a new calculator onto my ipad so have been keen to
test it ..... a figure of 40 out of 2000 sounded more realistic when it popped up so typed it onto the forum.

once submitted i could see the maths were wrong, so corrected it.

at a guess i have hit 2 instead of 5 during my calculation

still got the calculator, still got a brain too, but calculator should help
with more tricky stuff once i'm happy with it..


i really should read my posts before hitting "post reply", ...but hey ho
Report Dr Crippen January 30, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
What does it matter if you made a mistake on here?

I know people who bought properties in the run up to the last housing crash. They could have bought them much cheaper if they'd waited a year.

That's what I call a mistake.
Report donny osmond January 30, 2019 2:21 PM GMT
on the forum it doesnt matter, its correctable, or somebody will correct it.


hit the wrong button on placing a bet and that can be a mistake !
Report akabula January 31, 2019 1:05 AM GMT
Who really cares Donny. Tis only a forum.
Report akabula January 31, 2019 1:07 AM GMT
According to akabula, I have active multiple usernames. Serious question, is it possible for one individual on betfair to be able to do that?

Only the one other, Meadow. And your acting naïve question will fool no one.
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 8:02 AM GMT
The only person on here who looks foolish is you.
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 9:21 AM GMT
It was widely believed that Govt would renege on any deal with the EU but even I didn't imagine that the one to renege on Theresa May's deal would be Theresa May.

The EU simply cannot trust the UK again until we cancel Brexit, so tremendous logistical difficulties are likely to ensue. France should check every lorry through Calais and push the UK border back to England where it belongs.
Report yajyaj January 31, 2019 10:50 AM GMT
No holiday for MP's :)
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 11:15 AM GMT
so tremendous logistical difficulties are likely to ensue

Like when we joined? Can't think of any.

It all went off smoothly, as will our leaving.
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 11:19 AM GMT
Don't remember Govt preparing for martial law when we joined. The adversarial stance of the UK towards the EU will reap its own reward, I'm confident of that.
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 11:20 AM GMT
When we joined the EU, we had already adapted all our standards to theirs on the massive amount of stuff we sent there.

Now were leaving the standards will still be in place.

Where were the tremendous logistical difficulties in our trading with the EU before we joined?
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 11:27 AM GMT
Where were the tremendous logistical difficulties in our trading with the EU before we joined?

Are you joking? You needed special dispensation to take more than £50 out of the country. Living standards were falling behind those of EEC members. The UK was losing the race to prosperity. The single market accelerates growth for its members. That's why we joined.

UK simply cannot be trusted on the mainland. Macron is making all the right noises. Revisiting the Le Touquet agreement must be high on his agenda.
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 12:53 PM GMT
even if we leave with no deal ....if we want to export to eu we will have to comply with their standards.

the reverse is also true, their exports will have to meet our standards, whatever bar we set, or hoop
we set, they will have to jump over or through.

to begin with, customs union or not, we will start at same standards, and may then slowly diverge.

if we export to them, our exports will be subject to their laws, and their exports to us subject to
our laws.


workers rights ...like sick pay, maternity benefits, and decent holiday entitlements will most
likely be retained by uk until next tory government try to get rid of them...
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 3:16 PM GMT
You needed special dispensation to take more than £50 out of the country.

Nothing to do with the EU, the Labour party imposed that to keep cash from leaving the country due to Labour gaining power.

Living standards were falling behind those of EEC members.

And three years after we joined the EU we had to go begging to the IMF for a loan. With the winter of discontent around the corner.

UB is rewriting history.

He's blaming the blunders of the Labour party with being outside of the EU now.
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 3:23 PM GMT
that loan seems so quaint by standards of what these tories have added to the debt
we will have to repay.
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 3:24 PM GMT
Blaming the blunders of the Labour party on rather
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 3:25 PM GMT
The "£50 rule" was applied in 1964.
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 3:28 PM GMT
Very true Donny, the austerity measures the Tories implemented didn't go anywhere near deeply enough.

We need a new programme of austerity with a bit of backbone to it.
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 3:34 PM GMT
the choice of austerity wasnt required

the tax benefits to their donors were equally not required

tory borrowing is out of control, the sunlit uplands of no deal breakfast
are hardly likely to improve things short term, indeed in our lifetimes.
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 3:44 PM GMT
May Govt now so desperate it has come over all sympathetic to ex-mining communities, promising riches ready to drop upon them if their blackleg LabourMPs vote to keep them in power.
Report 1st time poster January 31, 2019 3:51 PM GMT
for all the sudden,new wto experts out their,just been explained out there that under A 24 you arnt automatically granted 2 years r more grace to stay under current terms whilst you talk about a trade deal, you have to have shown serious intent,already been in talks,agreed terms on a deal, its not an automatic given
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
Perfidious Albion, reneging before Brexit is even ratified. It behoves the EU not to let the UK pursue a "managed" no-deal.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 4:17 PM GMT
if you look at the language the leaver progressives use on here you can see how much they hate the country they live in

some don't even live here

hope this helps

would the europe be a better option for them

I know one already has declared that
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 4:19 PM GMT
nothing to add to debate...sprinkle some abuse...
Report moisok January 31, 2019 4:21 PM GMT
You are one of the worst osmond
Report unitedbiscuits January 31, 2019 4:23 PM GMT
Keep quiet and nobody gets shot.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
currently they have a similar attitude to press freedom in germany at the moment

what herr merkel says, goes.
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 4:32 PM GMT
how did he know i was referring to him..?

oh , probably because other folk were having a debate,

why not join in rather than posting a load of abuse?

how does posting abuse help those you think you are helping?
Report moisok January 31, 2019 5:40 PM GMT
Well your boss thinks we should ALL submit (her words, or herr words).  I suppose it COULD be a good idea for her but probably not for me. Especially when her friends from the east get more influence.  What with multi storey car parks and all that.  No wonder that any one from the LGBTQI side would be concerned about allowing people who are totally opposed to the gayer life style in to their country.
but hey ho  - you keep on believing in the failed federalist experiment. There appear to be a lot of dummies in favour of it still.
Strangely the appear to be mainly white and male.  ho ho ho

hope this helps
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 5:48 PM GMT
I haven't got an earthly what moisok is talking about.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 5:58 PM GMT
It's nothing two do with ewe
Report moisok January 31, 2019 6:00 PM GMT
and clearly you haven't kept up with political debate and situation in europe  and the middle east for the last few years

never mind
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:16 PM GMT
Your posts are mostly gobblededygook to me.
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:17 PM GMT
I mean multi storey car parks, gayer lifesyle etc, what's all that about?
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 6:19 PM GMT
its all distraction if the abuse fails...
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:20 PM GMT
A translator would be helpful.
Report donny osmond January 31, 2019 6:22 PM GMT
i doubt a translator would help
Report moisok January 31, 2019 6:34 PM GMT
pp don't be so obtuse
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:36 PM GMT
Well, I can't make out what you are talking about or any points you are trying to make.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 6:47 PM GMT
you lot have NO idea about car parks then  and you pretend to know about politics - international and otherwise - you are all fond of you own little trendy remarks, asides - sneaky clever interjections and know NOTHING about car parks - tell it to the marines.

also it was a reply to the cleverest in chief(font of human knowledge) Osmond
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:49 PM GMT
Well, let us all hear it, what is the car park thing?
Report moisok January 31, 2019 6:55 PM GMT
it is something one group are very much in favour of whilst being very much against another group

hope this helps  - I didn't think it would be so hard coz people are supposed to be very up on politics on here

or pretend to be
Report moisok January 31, 2019 6:56 PM GMT
67 percent think it should be illegal
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:57 PM GMT
I don't get it.
Report politicspunter January 31, 2019 6:58 PM GMT
Are you saying 67 percent of folks think car parks should be illegal?
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 6:59 PM GMT
Article 24 is available for us and the EU to sort something out between us after a no deal Brexit.

Yet astonishingly the BBC haven't mentioned Article 24 anywhere as far as I can see. They don't seem at all keen to let it out of the bag.

Except for this on their politics pages:

Prime Minister Theresa May still hopes, of course, that a deal can be done in the next few weeks and that Brexit on 29 March will be followed by a transition period of at least 21 months, when all the rules and regulations would stay the same.

And if a withdrawal agreement is ratified, and a transition period begins, the only legislation that would need to be passed before Brexit day would be a bill turning that agreement into UK law.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 7:10 PM GMT
the brussels corporation won't say anything outside a strict eu parameter
Report 1st time poster January 31, 2019 7:50 PM GMT
bbc had a trade expert on this afternoon discussing wto,article 24, basically said after an acrimonious no deal it would be a mistake to think the EU would be in a hurry to play ball regards wto and trotting out bmw,s French wine and cheese arnt answers
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 7:51 PM GMT
I wonder if the BBC will allow a question about Article 24 tonight on Question Time?

Someone in the audience might throw it in if it's not on the list.
Report moisok January 31, 2019 7:55 PM GMT
he did what first time??   bmws and french wine are not answers??
Report Dr Crippen January 31, 2019 7:57 PM GMT
That would be a silly position for the EU to take, they stand to benefit as much as we do from a better arrangement than bare WTO rules.

Otherwise why have they got trade deals with countries outside of the EU?

That trade expert on the BBC - I wonder who pays his wages?
Report 1st time poster January 31, 2019 7:58 PM GMT
just about sums Brexit up 24/7 coverage and even in matters of fact law like wto, people cant sit down and explain to viewers,voters carefully what the rules are,instead we get quick glib answers from so called experts wannabee trade experts,which differ depending on what you want to believe ,hear, its like listening to 3 different versions of someone breaking the speed limit
Report 1st time poster January 31, 2019 8:03 PM GMT
instead of repeating the same Brexit arguments,filming drivel from town centres at 10 0 clock on a tues morning,why don't sky, qt,daily politics,pledge,this week etc,etc do an in depth show discussing wto and dispel some of the myths,half truths  doing the rounds on social media
Report moisok January 31, 2019 8:07 PM GMT
It won't matter. We will be in so much trouble. No jobs no money no food etc etc  no medical supplies etc so how the hell will we be able to buy bmws cheese and wine??  we are finnish
Report politicspunter February 1, 2019 6:17 AM GMT
moisok, I honestly haven't got a clue what you are on about.
Report politicspunter February 1, 2019 6:26 AM GMT
and if akabula knows what you are on about, lets hear it.
Report n88uk February 1, 2019 10:28 PM GMT

Jan 31, 2019 -- 12:59PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Article 24 is available for us and the EU to sort something out between us after a no deal Brexit.Yet astonishingly the BBC haven't mentioned Article 24 anywhere as far as I can see. They don't seem at all keen to let it out of the bag.Except for this on their politics pages:Prime Minister Theresa May still hopes, of course, that a deal can be done in the next few weeks and that Brexit on 29 March will be followed by a transition period of at least 21 months, when all the rules and regulations would stay the same.And if a withdrawal agreement is ratified, and a transition period begins, the only legislation that would need to be passed before Brexit day would be a bill turning that agreement into UK law.


This is a stone cold lie. Article 24 is not available after a no deal Brexit. Article 24 only works if you are working towards a deal, in other words not in a no deal Brexit, as we would have no agreement to present.

On top of this you'd have to present some kind of plan for a FTA agreement.

You cannot just leave under no deal and trade under article 24 as an interim agreement for 10 years like Farage is claiming, this is another con to con the gullible.

Report moisok February 1, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
how do you know?  Have you lectured on it?
Report n88uk February 1, 2019 10:33 PM GMT
Because that's how article 24 works. I know Brexiteers struggle with this, looking how things actually work rather than how they hope they work, but again when it comes to what the UK should actually do you've got to come up with substance not fantasy.
Report Dr Crippen February 1, 2019 10:54 PM GMT
I'm afraid that's n88uk's hopeful fantasy of how Article 24 works, and not how it does work.

Here is the substance again explained by an expert just as I set.

https://brexitcentral.com/managed-no-deal-wto-option-using-article-24-gatt-can-avoid-raising-tariffs-quotas/
Report n88uk February 1, 2019 11:03 PM GMT
They are wrong. Well they actually just ignore the relevant parts to why it wouldn't work. Article 24 is basically so say it's gonna take x time to agree to a deal, so you do this in the interim while it's being fleshed out, but under no deal you wouldn't do this. And also the UK cannot do this unilaterally, the EU would have to agree and say yes there is x deal in the pipeline.
Report lfc1971 February 2, 2019 12:12 AM GMT
nothing will change if we leave in March on no deal ,
common sense .
Report Fatslogger February 2, 2019 1:20 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2019 -- 6:12PM, lfc1971 wrote:


nothing will change if we leave in March on no deal , common sense .


Do you generally find that the world operates on common sense?

Report Fatslogger February 2, 2019 1:21 PM GMT
Also, do you want nothing to change? I thought the point of Brexit was that things did change.
Report 1st time poster February 3, 2019 10:00 AM GMT
to quote the lovable or unlovable hardline brexiteer ,trade sec dr liam fox this morning on sky

IF WTO TERMS WERE SOGOOD ,WHY WOULD EVERYONE BE TRYING TO STRIKE DEALS, FREE TRADE DEALS OUTSIDE OF WTO TERMS
even fox is seeing the light and isn't joining the GULLABLE FOOLS NO DEAL,NO PROBLEM CLUB
Report lfc1971 February 3, 2019 11:19 AM GMT
It depends on the trade deal , not all free trade deals are the same
The UKs free trade deal that we have with the EU now is a bad deal
Report Dr Crippen February 3, 2019 11:53 AM GMT
To take no deal off the table would be extremely damaging for the UK's position in negotiating a satisfactory deal.

Even the possibility that no deal would not be implemented, has damaged the UK's position in the negotiations.

Without the option of no deal, the UK has to take whatever the EU chooses to offer, but can't leave it.
So in that situation the EU simply have to hold out in order to get their own way and impose whatever they like on the UK.

Taking no deal off the table, is to undermine the whole negotiating process from the UK's point of view.

Which is exactly why the no deal-no way stance is so treacherous to the interests of Britain.
Report unitedbiscuits February 3, 2019 12:07 PM GMT
The PM has no credibility anymore. No-one believes her. She's going back to argue against her agreement. She is completely untrustworthy. To be even-handed, you have to admire her absence of ego, she doesn't care how ridiculous she looks.
Report unitedbiscuits February 3, 2019 12:21 PM GMT
The EU would be mad to agree anything else at this stage, especially with Theresa May.
But the backstop is also an existential matter for the EU. The UK would exploit the Irish border to undermine the SM and threaten the EU itself.
Report 1st time poster February 3, 2019 12:46 PM GMT
THOUGHT the negotiating position of ERG, hardline brexiteers was when we leave on no deal terms, uk and eu will be desperate to sort out a trading deal ASP,so having no deal as a negotiating chip aint worth a dime as proved by it been on the table 54 days before exit and 10 days before treason comes back to the commons
having no deal as a hammer to break the EU, got the ERG  a deal that went down in history as the largest defeat in commons,it could not have been worse if no deal was taken off table the day after the reff
Report donny osmond February 3, 2019 12:54 PM GMT
we negotiated a deal

it was the tories wot dun it.


it was rejected even the prime minister mrs mayhem voted against it

now she says she wants to deliver brexit on time !
Report donny osmond February 3, 2019 12:57 PM GMT
if you are negotiating based on strength of your hand, its best
not to show your cards before entering negotiations.

if other side know your cards anyway then it doesnt matter so much.
Report moisok February 3, 2019 1:17 PM GMT
If we sweep round scotland and into the North Sea we can take Herr Merkel and her corrupt eu in the flank.

hope this helps
Report moisok February 3, 2019 1:17 PM GMT
they won't be expecting that!!!
Report politicspunter February 3, 2019 1:23 PM GMT

Feb 3, 2019 -- 7:17AM, moisok wrote:


If we sweep round scotland and into the North Sea we can take Herr Merkel and her corrupt eu in the flank.hope this helps


No.

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