Melanchon for last 2 with le pen.

In my view, Melenchon will do sharply better than even the latest polls suggest.  Even though Hamon looks unlikely to withdraw now, I think the majority of the leftist vote will have eliminated any prospect of voting for him by Sunday.

I'd put it close to evens that he gets through to the run off.  Macron is more likely than Le Pen.   But if the run-off is Melenchon / Le Pen, the victory is handed to him on a plate. 

Were that to happen, it would send chills through the whole continent.  Way more than Le Pen.  She'd be a lame duck totally incapable of implementing any policy due to an overwhelmingly hostile parliament and probably prime minister.  Melenchon, a divisive, protectionist, anti-Euro socialist and nationalist could actually govern and implement his manifesto.

Obtusely, in the short term, it'd also likely help the UK immensely, as the commission would be desperate to not have two disasters or loose cannons on its doorstep or within.

Reading a bit about whats happening here now with the first round on sunday and it looks like Filion is right back in the race , its very difficult to predict but I think the Final round now looks like it might be Filion v Macron ,Fillion therefore at 3s would be the value bet

Pretty big movement today on Macron. Was in to 1.7 about an hour ago, compared to over evens yesterday (now at 1.74) Not sure what has caused the drift on Melenchon (maybe he is too much of a character, or too much of a Communist), although I heard that Le Pen performed very poorly in the Debates. Fillon drifting slightly, although he's in much better position than he was a month ago. It's still uncertain who will win through to the 2nd round. Macron/ Le Pen still the favourites. In view of the fact that Macron went as low as 1.47 a few weeks ago, I doubt what one of the posters above was saying (that he could be about 1.4) If he gets through to the last 2, I think Macron will be less than 1.3 to win. Apparently, Le Pen has had difficulty in expanding her support base, and has been reverting to type. I don't think she has much of a chance, but who knows?

You misunderstood my post Des.  I meant the market made him 1.4 which I thought represented a good bet and that he would on average be shorter.  Although obv depends who he is up against and how well he does in going through to the 2nd round.

Market has moved because recent polls have moved slightly in his favour. Only fractionally but in a close contest that's all it takes

OK, Clydebank. apologies for misconstruing your post.

Currently makes him 1.3

Currently makes him 1.3

The market makes him 1.3 that is

Mr Macaroon on Twitter tonight ...

twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/855129811144118274

THE KISS OF DEATH ...  [ not that he needed it anyway ]

The French can't vote this muppet in can they ?

Le Pen may have more of a chance, now. Fillon calling for the Election to be postponed.

Before this happened I was curious as to what would happen if one of the candidates was assassinated?

Wasn't that the Day of the Jackal

The final set of polls will come out later today.

In recent days Macron has been gaining (solid 23/24%) and if the polls are accurate will definitely go through to the second round.

Le Pen has been in free fall the last two weeks dropping from 24/25% to 21/22%, much of that has come from the Non-partisan crowd where her support has dropped from 30% to 20%.

Fillon is solid between 19% and 20%, but hasn't gained much from Le Pen's fall. His best hope is for party loyalties to take over in the betting booth.

Melenchon is solid 18.5/19.5%. Since Hamon has dropped to 7/7.5% he's relying on the "useful vote" concept to convince some of the remaining Hamon voters to switch.

With a margin of error between 1.5% and 2% this is still a really close contest and the final polls will be very interesting although last night's events are unlikely to be reflected in the figures and are yet another unknown to colour the final mix!

have the pollsters done anything differently in light of their failures during the trump and brexit elections?

le pen/macron ist two market at 1.75

Just so you have enough info if you want a flutter on the French election.


I have just found this. Its a 5 hour analysis of Melenchon's Budjet. More than hundred economists from 17 countries  supported it including Ha-Joon Chang.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7b67QCjibc

Its had 400 thousand hits.

This guy is all over youtube.

And here's my pitch. If half of the supporters of the socialist candidate who has no  chance switch to Melenchon than he is beating Macron and Le Pen.

Is is right that the final polls are out today???????

I'll be laying off my 11's on Le Pen/ Melenchon final and putting it on a Melenchon win.

He plans to ignore the EU rules  daring them to debate him. He wants to attack the EU and is prepared to leave. Here's the thousands of tricolours to prove he appeals to patriotism. And this is Marseilles deep in Le Pen country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrjWwsV4zS4&t=571s

I've had a very small bet @20's Melenchon for President. I'll put more on if his price on my main bet come ins.

There is no way that Melenchon supporters are not trying to persuade all the socialists they know to switch their votes. And they've got loads of evidence to convince them with.

If you look at the 2012 polls - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_el... - The actual vote was on 22 Apr 2012 - the last polls were mainly up to 19 Apr 2012 (Thursday) - just the IFOP covered the 20 Apr 2012 (they usually publish at 17:00 UK time), so most polls may already been been published!

Thanks Martin I'll check this evening. Not worth laying off ATM. My hope lies in an underestimation by the powers that be like Brexit and Trump.

have the pollsters done anything differently in light of their failures during the trump and brexit elections?

Clinton actually polled 48.18% to trumps 46.09 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

The last 5 polls (all covering upto 6 Nov) gave clinton a lead of +3 +3 +4 + 5 +7 - Take the midpoint gave clinton a lead of 4% - this poll was the CBS/Times Poll
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/cbs-times-26778

2016 General Election - Clinton 47%, Trump 43% (CBS News/New York Times 11/2-11/6/16)
Population     1,426 Likely Voters
Margin of Error     ±3.0 percentage points
Polling Method     Live Phone

The 2% error was within the expected margins

As far as the polls are concerned there is a worry that "Herding"  may be occurring and pollsters with outliners might be massaging them to agree with the majority

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/

Weakness weakness and more weakness displayed by Western leaders has encouraged terrorists to do what they are doing. When will people and political leaders wake up. 238 people dead in France over the last 2 years through islamic terrorism alone. Time to wake up and take a stance.

Very interesting Martin. It seems some-one could be wrongly priced. Melenchons rallies are huge. His presentation is literally fabulous. The socialist candidate seems to be out of the running. Very interesting.

So many people say he's Frexit. He's threatening everything but his number one aim is to reform the EU from within. EU. He is to be seen on several youtube clips being very friendly with Yanis Varoufakis who is Mr reform  Europe from  within. All of course music to my ears.

Just watched a thing on French about Melenchon. And there's all these texts going "Jean Luc take my energy". I am not qualified to explain it. But take my word it is a young people thing. There are young people really hero worshipping him. Now if that turns into votes or in my dreams children getting their parents to vote ; then we are on a winner.

I Know I know tweeting something and actually getting one wee arsss to a polling station are very different things. Interesting though.

There is magic in the  air about Melenchon. I have never seen such an pouring of joy about a politician. You need at least a side bet on this one.

There is loads of stuff like this and other very exciting hi tech stuff. Its briilant its fun and he is satnding for the young, for technology and for the future.
And he wants to reform the EU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm1AQk30kFs


Get on.

The support for Macron - is all fabrication - all media hype & no foundations.

I look at this phoney - photo opportunist - puppet  and am astounded at the price - totally astounded.

There is simply no logical explanation for his price.


One thing I would like to know though - what is the music that he uses at his meeting - when he enters ..
now that is cool - bet he didn't choose it.

There is simply no logical explanation for his price.

Perhaps the French have been conned ? ? 

And have swallowed it ?

Very interesting Spanish. Here's something that amazes me.One of the best articles on Melenchon I have ever read. From the effin Mail. Well bgggggggggrrr me sideways. I have to rethihnk summat.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-4432338/Melenchons-working-class-rhetoric-hits-home-French-vote.html


Well done Daily Mail. Hats off.

The momentum does appear to be with Melenchon & it's now neck & neck between Fillon & Melenchon in most polls with this BVA internet poll from last night now having Melenchon ahead of Fillon yet Fillon is trading @ 5.9 & Melenchon is trading @ 19?!



"Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen seen on 23 per cent of voting intentions in first round of presidential election on Sunday, according to BVA poll.

The poll was carried out online between April 20 and April 21, and includes some people surveyed after last night’s shooting in Paris which saw one policeman killed and two officers injured.

Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon seen in third place on 19.5 per cent, conservative Francois Fillon seen on 19 percent."


http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/794314/french-election-2017-live-updates-news-polls-odds-results-date-marine-le-pen



I don't know if Melenchon will win but I do know his odds are too long & Fillons are too short & if Melechon does make it through to the second round the resulting price crash in his odds makes him amazing value.

Thanks Lucky. Remember folks  you heard it all on here.

Jean luc melanchon being backed now down into 12s 365 . good luck Comrade

I know Spanisheyes has deep reservations about Macron's numbers ... but

I think it might be worth taking a punt on Macron to win the first round at 7-4 (3.0 on BF).

In the 2012 election the last  polls from the 8 main polling companies had Hollande beating Sarkozy by     0, 0, 0, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0, 3.5 and 3.5 - he won by 1.45%

The last  polls from the 7 main polling companied this years have Macron beating Le Pen by: 0, 1.0, 1.0 2.0, 2.0, 2.5, 3.5. On that basis alone Macron should be favourite.

The argument is that the polls under count Le Pen's support. She scored  17.9 in the last election in 2012 and he last 8 poll numbers were: 14, 15.5, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17.
So she scored 2% points higher than the average of her last numbers. To win she would need to do that again. The market is priced as if she WILL do that again.

Macron is no sure thing, but based on the polling numbers and the divisive nature of Le Pen, I really think the prices should be reversed. The one final nail in Le Pen's coffin is Donald Trump. We've seen what can happen when we protest too much - maybe the French will look at Trump and turn away from a abyss which is le Pen!

16 to 18% means over 10% of her supporters were too shy to come forward, if she is now expected circa 24% then that means the polls would be out by 3% and not 2%. Not crabbing, just saying. Though contrary to that, it's said that Le Pen supporters are less shy this time around so maybe that negates the shy polling. We are about to find out!

They are mainly internet polls this time around so the shy voter syndrome should be less.

There was an interesting table in the final BVA poll where it asked those voters who had made a choice but were not certain, who their second choice were, and then created a current, lower, upper range for each runner (sic)

Le Pen - 23 - 20 - 25
Macron - 23 - 17 - 28
Fillon - 19 - 16 - 21
Mélenchon - 19.5 - 14 - 24

There is a market on Turnout.

In 2012 it was 79.47%, and the fav for this year is the range 79.01 - 82.

In the 2012 polls not that many polls measured the expected turnout, but those that did had it down at 85% or more (Abstention 14% or lower)  only two had Abstention  above that at 27% and 28%.

This year though it's much different. The last  polls from the 5 main polling companies which measure it have Abstention  at 20%, 27%, 27%, 29%, 30%.

On that basis I think there is a very good chance of turnout being less that 79% this year. How low it will go is anyone's guess.

They are saying that midday turnout is higher than 2012. So 80% is possible. You cab assume its a large portion of Le Pen suporters. I am obviously hoping for shy Melenchon supporters.

I have 27's for Melenchon to win first round. That was available up to last night.

Looks like I'll be licking my woulds on turnout - ah well win some lose some.
Lets hope it's a late surge for Melenchon :) ... but I fear the worst with a Le Pen surge!

I also think Melenchon is a very lively outsider, and it's probably tougher to accurately poll across 4 candidates than 2.  I've laid the favourite but have little idea what will actually happen.  Recent events in France would suggest there could be many people who secretly vote LePen... 238 deaths across many attacks is enough to create sustained fear.

An early Exit poll (published in Belgium) gives Macron 24% Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20.5 and melenchon 18% - very similar to the polls -
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201704231052909373-exit-poll-le-pen-macron/

The same exit poll in 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/french-presidential-elections-are-underway - gave -


RTBF quoted first projections based on counted votes from hundreds of polling stations, which by law cannot be published in France until the last polling stations close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), as showing Sarkozy and Hollande would go through to the second round on May 6.

Hollande was ahead on the first ballot with 27 percent of the vote, with Sarkozy on 25 percent. RTBF said extreme-right leader Marine Le Pen came in third with 20 percent.
Actual result in 2012 was Hollande 28.6, Sarkozy 27.18, Le Pen 17.9, so the early exit polls had them in the correct order, just the amounts slightly wrong.

This is of course only indicative - things can change

Turnout has dropped a little -

http://www.lesoir.be/1488676/article/actualite/france/2017-04-23/presidentielle-taux-participation-etait-6942-17h-direct

17h, 69.42% of the 47 million French voters had already voted, according to figures provided by the Ministry of the Interior.
A decrease from the last election of 2012 (70.59%) and 2007 (73.87%). 

Could go either way - above 79% or below (for my financial health I would rather below - it will minimise losses!)

Sswitched my attention from the football to see macron at 1.48.

Both ISPOS and KANTAR  estimate turnout at 78% , Harris estimate 78.5%

It's going to be close between 76 - 79   and 79 - 82


http://www.ipsos.fr/presidentielle2017/ 
http://www.fr.kantar.com/elections/presidentielle/2017/presidentielle-2017-tour-1-estimations/
https://twitter.com/harrisint_fr

Not sure I trust that early exit poll on Belgian TV. Polling companies have suggested they won't be doing exit polls so it's going to be later than usual to get any meaningful data.

I think there's value in opposing Macron at 1.3 and I've acted accordingly.

If I can lay off tonight at 1.28 or so. I'll be more than happy!

You could be correct. The Belgium company did a similar exit poll in 2012 which had 2% between the top two - ended up 1.5%. So they have history, but this year is an unusual election

FRANCE eng on SKY 513 is giving a turnout estimate at 77% (abstension 23%)

Harris saying Le Pen not in top two.. Seems unlikely and I've no idea how reliable they are.

do you have a link to the Harris story ?

The turnout estimate of 77% is from -  Ipsos/Sopra Steria firm puts abstention at 23 percent nationally. - http://www.france24.com/en/20170423-france-liveblog-presidential-election-fi...

Macron 1.29 to win the 1st round.

Apr 23, 2017 -- 6:33PM, MartinK wrote:

do you have a link to the Harris story ?

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/856195933431791617

The French are contrarian to a fault. There's nothing they like more than confounding expectations. "There are going to be a lot of glum faces among Le Pen supporters". That said, she could still make it, of course.

Macron/Le pen for final 2 is still strong favourite.

projection is for Macron/Le pen for last 2

Macron 1.19, even lower than i thought.

Just watching France 24 Live ..   its a joke

No results in yet - and they talking as though they know the result.

Makes for good betting opportunities.

Yeah  ..  should have saved for this  ..

Is it another Brexit - USA  replay ?

Just watching France 24 Live ..   its a joke

No results in yet - and they talking as though they know the result.

The projections are based on a sample of actual votes. It might be wrong, but I won't be betting against it

Makes for good betting opportunities.

For those of us who have been backing Macron for months, at odds against, it makes for fantastic betting opportunities.

@ MK ..   actual votes  -  or an IPOS Poll ?

If its a run off between Le Pen and Macron on May 7 then he will beat her comfortably

At 1.15, you don't have to take the chance, Anxious. I think I'll lay off, myself.

Speaking from a purely selfish, betting point of view, of course.

Mind you if Le Pen can't even win the "protest" vote. She stands little chance in the final round.

Apr 23, 2017 -- 7:19PM, Des Pond wrote:

Makes for good betting opportunities.For those of us who have been backing Macron for months, at odds against, it makes for fantastic betting opportunities.

For the first round or the outright?

Le Pen ahead according to interior ministry but I'm not sure how that is counted.

Outright, of course.

Not one actual result in yet ..

Apr 23, 2017 -- 7:39PM, Des Pond wrote:

Outright, of course.

Excellent pick. Should get a great price after the official results come in if your not already out.

Doesn't matter, I've already laid off.

Thanks, CJ. very gracious of you.

After Brexit and Trump, I think I was due a result.

Guadeloupe goes Macron while Martinique goes Melenchon. Actual results.

The left are rioting in Paris after the results. Something that never changes from country to country.

Can someone tell me where & when we see the actual count results ?

wtf - I,m watching BBC & France 24  -  nothing ..

do results not come in one by one ?

http://www.wave3.com/story/35219426/the-latest-early-french-vote-results-le-pen-leads-macron

Partial official results from France's first-round presidential election show far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron leading.

The two will advance to the May 7 runoff, after rivals conceded defeat.

With 19.1 percent of the vote counted, the Interior Ministry said Sunday night that Le Pen was leading with 25 percent followed by Macron with 21.3 percent. The early vote count includes primarily rural constituencies that lean to the right, while urban areas that lean left are counted later.

Polling agency projections show Macron in the lead with between 23 and 24 percent, followed by Le Pen with between 21 and 23 percent.

You can see the evolving projections here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

@ MK ..  thanks for that.

So there is no area count results - as such ..  one by one ..

Just "projections" - until the final count result announcement.

Macron first round price just doubled. Interesting, haven't seen anything.

Christ, something is happening from 1.13 to 1.6, still haven't seen anything.

Tempted to get out.

Whats happening? I got out green that Id long given up hope on...

le penn into evens... (to win 1st round)

Le Pen now favourite! Whomever got her at 125 is sitting on a slap up meal.

Now Macron back into 1.3's.. Odd, very odd.

now back out to 4.2+. weird action. Someone misunderstanding the 'current votes' reading maybe? Le Penns ahead on it yet but doesnt include the big cities yet..

On actaul votes counted so far Le Penn leads 25% to 22% after 20m votes. I guess thats spooking people the initial estimates are wrong

The models take into account the expected outcome in the various areas. They would expect this sort of difference at this stage of the count.
As the results are coming in Macrons lead is increasing - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

The 1.27 price for Macron to win the first round is a gift - unfortunately most of my bank is already deployed!

Whatever it was it was bizarre. Perhaps Melenchon is getting most of the returns in the bigger conurbations rather than Macron?

I've gone back in against Macron at 1.05. Just too low.

The 1.27 price for Macron to win the first round is a gift - unfortunately most of my bank is already deployed!

I really really really hate backing odds on runners - but this really was a case of buying money.
Reality has finally set in and this fellow is 1.01 to back!

I've gone back in against Macron at 1.05. Just too low.




Poor old CJ - he's had more losing bets than a FOBT punter

The Belgium exit poll looks to have been very accurate again this time.

Apr 24, 2017 -- 7:33AM, Captain Wurzel wrote:

I've gone back in against Macron at 1.05. Just too low. Poor old CJ - he's had more losing bets than a FOBT punter

Have I? Do you want to try and explain that comment?

I suspect you may be unable to and just fancied having a shout on a topic you've been shown time and time again to not understand.

Apr 24, 2017 -- 8:10AM, MartinK wrote:

The Belgium exit poll looks to have been very accurate again this time.

Indeed. A good night for pollsters all round. I can see envious glances from across the water to those models.

Lol at CJ70 jumping around like a headless chicken. Doesn't seem a year ago he claimed he could easily manipulate the Brexit market. Me "Go on then." CJ "I'm not revealing my methods."

Apr 24, 2017 -- 10:09AM, unitedbiscuits wrote:

Lol at CJ70 jumping around like a headless chicken. Doesn't seem a year ago he claimed he could easily manipulate the Brexit market. Me "Go on then." CJ "I'm not revealing my methods."

Ooh Wurzel has got back up from somebody else who doesn't understand how betting markets work. Usually two heads are better than one while trying to think, but in this case I suspect it may not be.

Melanchon  big price outright backers got a run for thar money ,Fillon backers unlucky as well ,this macron creature has fcked everyones bets up

reading on his wiki he was pumpin his 40 yo teacher when he was 15 ,although must of went from hero to zero when he married her

"Macron’s parents told Fulda that they believed their son was actually going after the heart of Trogneux’s daughter. They were stunned to hear that this wasn’t the case."


never understood the french