Marine Le Pen. France Presidential Election.

coming back in again ....

Macron favourite again, crazy market! Will this volatility continue? I think it probably will.

Feb 21, 2017 -- 3:45PM, dom888 wrote:

yes very short lepen but insanly short AFD in Germany. 9 % and the are traded around 7/1 nuts in my opinion. overreaction of trump. now they think every right wing party will win.if lepen wins it will probably go down to 5/2 and will be the lay of the year.

Completely agree with this being great value at the moment. The problem with the German election is it comes after the Dutch and French, those elections could systematically change the relationship that Germany has with the EU. I think the AfD price is based on a grand coalition to save the EU vs an anti-establisment vote.

The thing is you can so easily trade out if things go that way that the current price is a no-brainer.

Fillon campaign manager has quit tonight and although filion says he wont quit he is all but finished now , many of the centre right are now helping Allain Juppe.
Next French President
Emmanuel Macron evens
Marine Le Pen   9-4
Alain  Juppe    11-4
François Fillon 10-1

Fillon is going nowhere so anyone betting on Juppe risks all and 16s or so Fillon is a great bet imho

Anxious sums it up rather well.

Le Pen wins the first round because she has the most support.
Her problem is you get this unholy alliance against her in the second round where left and right combine forces.

Fillon is so far to the right you would think the Left would baulk at supporting him.
Also calling Le Pen far right is wrong,she has some left leaning policies.

Macron is pro the EU which is a minus.
His statement about Algeria and war crimes will surely antagonise the right.

From Le Pens point of view she would rather face someone from the right.
Surely the Left in France have some regard for their country.

By Monday all these people who have bet on Juppe will be a lot poorer and wondering why they bet on a NON runner !! Fillon will bring the crowds out tomorrow in the rain and then the media will be forced to shut up .!! Fillon and Marine are being targeted by the Courts and Media .

Macron worked for Rothchild.

2014-2016 was the Minister of the economy as GDP fell from $2.84tr to $2.48tr.

'On Islam, Macron has been cordial, insisting "no religion is a problem in France today" and even drawing ire from the right by condemning French "crimes and acts of barbarism" during its colonial rule in Algeria.'

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/02/emmanuel-macron-struggles-impress-french-muslims-170218192439532.html

Suggests he is denial there is any kind of problem. If he denies there is a problem how can he deal with it?

He cant and wont.

Inside Trader you are correct and after tomorrow Fillon will take Macron on and expose him ,.He has been invented by the media and " forces" that we know little about !!.. Fillon will gain so much strength from tomorrow . A very smart move taken out of the " The Boss's book " ie Mister S!!

Fillon is finished.

Then you should make some money ! I wonder how Fillon will be forced out ....The money of the party is even in his control .With Deep respect you and other traders on politics know nothing Brexit Trump Corbyn ( 100-1) .I came across you all telling me this lot couldnt win ... .It got boring counting your money !! I furnished my Flat on people like you

Hilarious stuff. How old are you? You sound like 12.

Naw dotchinite, she's not as old as that surely.

Besides, some of the furniture out of charity shops is pretty good.

Yes you are right Meadow . The only item i bought new was a bed from Marks and sparks for 700 half price .. Not bad i thought . But not the wood these days . I'm in my 70s but i would give you lot a run on politics anytime

Funnily enough I also backed Corbyn, Leave and Trump.  Difference is I post my bets here in advance with my reasoning for backing them.  Have a look at the Stoke by election thread and you will see what I mean.

What price did you back Corbyn and what was the reasoning? Did you back any others in the race? Would like to see the thread if you can remember the name to see the logic behind it.

I backed Corbyn when I think he was roughly 40s on here on the day of the MP nominations. He still was about three short with about half an hour to go.

I backed him as the price was far too big if he made it past the nomination stage and felt he had a sporting chance of winning it as I didn't strongly fancy any of the other contenders.
I backed Leave because I had said all along the polls were too close for remain to be 1/3 and the value lay in backing Leave at 3/1.
I backed Trump because both candidates were terrible and he was the biggest price by a mile.

It appeared that anyone who knew much about the Labour membership realised straight away Corbyn was over priced hugely.

I wasnt one of them but neither were the vast majority of the PLP.

Pandora on chit chat definitely posted  about Corbyn being popular with the members and he was spot on.

Brexit and Trump were obvious at the prices. I dont know any pro who did not back them. Well done with Corbyn though as that was very unlikely.

What are your views on France? It seems who ever goes into the second round against Le Pen will be massively odds on. I have had bits and pieces on her whenever it goes above 5.

I haven't had a bet at all on the French market.

Inside trader - Putting my cards on the table i want Marine to win .I pretty much adore the lady and see her and Wilders as the only hope for Europe . The French are gutless  and Cowards so i cant see it .It would need bravery for that so i cant see it
I dont have a penny on her but i promise you i would give any winning up to see her win . Final two Marine/Macron vs Fillon with Fillon winning .As far as posting bets sadly i wouldnt know how
I have a Laptop which has opened up my life but i can only do basic things
Have a lovely night

Meadow Take Fillon

I'd favour a Le Pen victory, too, but it would represent a greater shock than Brexit or Trump in my view.  One can always hope, of course. :)

If its Fillon against her then will the left vote for her or Fillon? I cannot see French unions and farmers voting for a Thatcher type character. It is a real shame for Le Pen that he is up against it due being investigated.

If its Macron I guess the anti-Le Pen coalition from both left and right will vote him in. Its a shame for France because the man seriously lacks in economics and security policies. It will be more of the same. Regular terrorist attacks and a declining GDP.

I cant see how Marine can win because she cant break 30-40 % ( TOP whack ) so in a two horse race she must lose I agree she is the least likely of the three . 1 Trump 2 Brexit 3 Marine .
Politico have been putting fake news around tonight about Fillon ( that he is ending his campaign at the Rally tomorrow" hence price going out
Macron met Clegg in London this week . Both of course Manufactured by " them " .The ones we cant see !!!
If Fillon is in Monday night this time he wins the Pot !!

Fillon is still in there at 10s this morning with Juppe there at 7-2 , I think I will agree with IT here that if the final round is Le Pen v Macron then macron will win but if it was Fillon v Le Pen would the left vote for a harsh Thatcherite clone in Fillon I very much doubt that they would.

The Market has it wrong ! look at the prices tomorrow ,.Fake media is making a false market .I have info right from inside Fillon camp and he is not going anywhere .. You will see i'm correct later

Laugh all you want and Juppe will say he is supporting  Fillon at 10-30 ( 9-30 GMT ) Tomorrow .. Yes Trump Fangirl  but a rich one -PS keep laughing mugs

Polly, help me out here. Which contenders have you backed and why?

Sounds like money tree and burton brewers have got together and produced this confused, deluded, right-wing fantasist who doesn't have a clue what they are doing, and would quickly lose every penny they have, if they were betting on half the things that they say they are.

She was tipping Baroin a few days ago, and Fillon at the same time. Despite the fact that Baroin can only get through if Fillon quits. Raved about Fillon at 7.8, a few hours before he hit 18 plus. and tipped up Baroin at 100 long after he went as low as 14's and just before he drifted to 270. Amid all this confusion, she also claims to have positions on Macron!

You are very very nasty people . I came as a friend to share what i had  Nothing more nothing less .I even gave you hours to hoover up the money on Juppe before his statement tomorrow .I get things wrong i am 75 and mix things up. I wont be back . Keep laughing lowlife

Ps Baroin  went to under 20s after i put him up at 100s

No offence meant Polly, but you are funny, tbh. Sorry if I have upset you.

PPS and i have macron at 16s 12s and 11/4  thats it .. Good like to the nice people on here

8.45 post correct polly !

Thank you Des

When you post stuff on here you get far worse, believe me. I genuinely didn't mean to offend you. You should see some of the stuff that's been thrown at me over the years, mostly for telling the truth. and I try not to deprecate anyone, even when they are obviously trolling. For the record, I think Macron is a almost a shoe-in for the last 2, because Fillon and Juppe can only damage each other. Macron was odds-on a couple of days ago, and I don't really see him staying at 2.3 for long.

All the best Polly, I am sorry if my comments offended you,  I can see that they were a bit harsh.

All forgotten Des and thank you very much .Its not the same online as speaking to someone face to face ..Thank you again and if someone still wants money on Juppe take it off them Very odd the 1000s that went on him today Non runner -NO Bet WHOOPS nope anyway all good fun

Take care Polly. I noticed that Juppe has drifted to about 8 already!

baroin in on juppe drift ...

Macron in to 1.88. bit of a drift on baroin.

Evening  Des
Baroin will get a top job but wont now be standing against Fillon
As far as polls go we are at the low point imho for Fillon
In the primary for a longtime Juppe was hot Fav to be Fillon
We have debates then Fillon will blow them away as he did in the primary .
As much as the media might like the idea NO one will be taking on Fillon .NO plan B its Fillon all the way ..Trump was always right about the media -Total and utter Corruption .USA UK France etc etc Thank God for the internet otherwise the Astards would never have been exposed

Evening Polly. Hope you are well.

Expect drift on Fillon . Someone gave him 50.000 undeclared .. Not what he needed ..The media are really after him and Marine ...

Thanks to Polly I have had a bet on this market. I backed Fillon at 17 with willhill and layed them at 6 on here. I really don't know enough about this election to become really involved so will lurk with interest!

How sweet Meadow
Thank you

BEWARE Macron backers He could be the worst favorite since Andy Burnham in the Labour leadership.. This chart is how defo it is that people stick with their choice ( i have three bets on Macron myself )
If i get a few winners at Cheltenham next week i will put even more on Fillon !! Around 6 now but still Xmas
( it says photo pending so will add it later )

Are you a Bournemouth fan polly ?

No but she's called prolly you thick c....

Polly Ffs poxy I pad

got to love it when abuse goes wrong

( sorry dan)

Ha ha Dan serves you right you cockney muppet

Guess I'll have to swallow that

opinion polls have le pen and macron pretty close for first round

betting slow to react or are opinion polls suspect ?

The market has an unusual dynamic, at this stage. Although Le pen is expected to be 1st or a close second in the First Round of voting, she is widely expected to lose the second round to either Macron or Fillon. It's a question of whether the last 2 will be Le Pen and Macron or Le pen and Fillon. The odds for Le Pen and Macron for last two are very short (less than 1.5), as most people think that Fillon has been too damaged by ongoing corruption proceedings and will be eliminated in the 1st Round. Whether Macron or Fillon get through with Le Pen, they will be strong favourites and their price will plummet after the 23rd of April.

Fillon starting to drift again.

Macron 1.7 now, Could lay off before the 23rd.

Mar 15, 2017 -- 10:48PM, Des Pond wrote:

Macron 1.7 now,  Could lay off before the 23rd.

Depends how brave you are, if the Dutch election exit poll is wrong it'll shoot back out.

Do you think it's wrong?

Going to lay off a chunk of stake, but leaving most of it. Will be about 1.3 to 1.4, imo, if he makes it to the last two.

Mar 15, 2017 -- 11:02PM, Des Pond wrote:

Do you think it's wrong?

I have no reason to believe it is. Still it's happened previously, the way the tweets are going I'd suggest it is broadly correct.

Macron in to 1.57 now. I honestly didn't expect him to go quite as low as this, with over a month to go until the 1st round. More accusations against Fillon about links with Putin. It's hard to see Fillon making the run off, now.

Le Pen to kiss Pootin's feet in Moscow in return for election funding

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-23/le-pen-to-visit-moscow-as-russia-calls-her-political-realist

pootin shoots down another opponent in Ukraine and Le Pen pays respect like a mafia underling

The European Union will die because the people do not want it anymore, arrogant and hegemonic empires are destined to perish. The time has come to defeat globalists.

Vast amounts  of my money is on Le Pen to win the first round and a smaller amount on her to be  president. Viva la France.

Seriously - how can this Macaroon guy be these [ 1.52 ] odds ?

Look at his Twitter - they just take the piste

Look at his "meeting" the other day in Saint-Denis - people were sparse & walking out.
(the guy is an empty Cameron type - all promise and photo op & sweet FA else)

He cannot win this in a million years - can he ?

The five latest polls

Le Pen / Macron / Fillon / Mélenchon
23.0/ 23.0 / 19.0 / 19.0 - BVA
24.5/ 23.5 / 18.5 / 17.0 - Ifop-Fiducial
23.0/ 24.0 / 19.0 / 18.0 - Harris
25.0/ 24.0 / 20.0 / 16.0 - OpinionWay
23.0/ 23.5 / 18.5 / 18.0 - Odoxa

It's the Fillon / Mélenchon battle which is interesting. Mélenchon has hit 18/19% in 3 of the last 5 polls, three weeks ago he was on 12% with Hammon the socialist on 13%. Hammon is now sub 10% and for the first time Mélenchon  is now level pegging or only 1% and 0.5% behind Fillon.
Their prices on betfair 6.0 and 20.0, yet Mélenchon has all the momentum. The question is what is the floor for Hammon (his votes have likely moved to Mélenchon) and is Mélenchon attracting some of the 30% undecided voters. If there's one Guy who has the potential to shorten over the next weeks or so it has to be Mélenchon

Are not - the 30% "un-decided" the ones who are reluctant (in the polls) to say Le Pen ?

because of the media stigma - labeling her "racist" "fascist" "xenophobe"   ... etc.

I (think) so - but enough to win ?

I also (think) that those Macaroon poll figures are being artificially boosted (no doubt there).

I'm pretty much focused on who'll get through the first round at this point.

There is an element of that with the 30% - but it's conjecture. Lets face it the main parties are having a horrible time. The key element for Mélenchon and the first round is how many of Hammon's socialist supporters will be willing to switch to him if he's seen to have a chance, now Hammon looks like a definite also ran.

If Macron numbers are inflated then with Fillon and Le Pen splitting the right, Mélenchon becomes a definite possible for getting through the first round.

It’s worth noting Mélenchon enjoyed the same momentum in the run up to the first round in 2012, when polls put him at 16 percent, just behind Le Pen. In the end he gained 11 percent of the vote. But remember that year it was a socialist who won - this year the Socialist is fading fast, and many of their  vote will go in Mélenchon's direction.

Unlike our own Corbyn, Mélenchon is both charismatic and a fine orator and it was his performances in the two debated which have seen him surge.

Mélenchon has drifted out from his 20.0 of last night back to 26. There will be new polls on Monday, and if he solidifies his position on the 18/19 mark - or even better over the next week we'll see him drop under 20's again very soon. He could even be in single figures if he overtakes Fillon who is surely fatally wounded by the magistrate investigation into the Fake job for his wife.

I'd be very careful about the suggestion that Le Pen and Fillon are splitting votes. Le Pen is probably drawing from the left more than the right.

I can't disagree with anything else, it'll be interesting to see how far Melenchon can go without hitting the overly left leaning Macron vote.

I'd have to admit to being a bit of a novice on the French political scene. I thought Fillon would be ditched after the wife fake job thingy and  went big on Francois Baroin, but that soon went south, then assumed the left would combine behind Benoit Hamon, but I did take out a saver on Melenchon just in case, thank goodness.

If half of Le Pens support is from the left, then she must have the most to lose from a surging Melenchon.

The latest BVA poll has Le Pen 23.0, Macron 23.0, Fillon 19.0, Mélenchon 19.0, Hamon 8.5. The change from last weeks BVA poll is - Le Pen -1, Macron -2, Fillon 0, Mélenchon +4, Hamon -3

If Mélenchon can peel between 0.5 and 1% from Macron, Le Pen, and  Hamon (which he more than did last week) we would have Mélenchon, Macron and Le Pen all around the 22% mark, well within the margin of error.

There are also a third of voters who haven't decided yet.

Don't get me wrong Mélenchon is no slam dunk, but the market is seriously underestimating his chances.

It's interesting the user SpanishEyes believes "I also (think) that those Macaroon poll figures are being artificially boosted (no doubt there)."
Here is a note from the latest BVA poll on Macrons figures (via google translate):

Note: Emmanuel Macron remains the candidate most often chosen "by default", by 33% of his potential voters against 23% for the average of the candidates. And among its "hesitant" voters, nearly one in two declares "still waiting to be fully convinced"
(48%, 11 percentage points higher than the average for the candidates). These indicators illustrate a certain fragility of the vote of conviction for Emmanuel Macron as the ballot approaches.

Macron is being promoted on all fronts [ not national ! ]

You only have to look at his Twitter & his few "meetings" - to gauge his "actual" support.

I would say at this point Le Pen is 28%  - Macron 22%

How that [ and I'm no expert either ] - is going to pan out - I have no idea.

I have backed Le Pen ..  £100 @ 5 [ to win outright ]   ..  do I now lay that off .. dilemma ? ?

It'll be interesting to see if Melenchon keeps surging.

Le Pen v Melenchon run off would be extraordinary.

The kantar polling company in it's last poll tried out the following for the second round:

Le Pen /  Fillon   - 45 / 55
Le Pen / Mélenchon - 43 / 57
Macron / Fillon - 66 / 34
Macron /  Mélenchon - 53 / 47

It's the Macron / Mélenchon - that looks fascinating

http://fr.kantar.com/elections/presidentielle/2017/intentions-de-vote-forte-percee-de-jean-luc-melenchon/

You might need to google translate it if your French is as bad as mine!

Further to  SpanishEyes thoughts on Le Pen's under-counting in the polls - a twitter note from Angelique Chrisafis - Paris bureau chief for the guardian - https://twitter.com/achrisafis/status/851425463637614592 -


1/ Spent roughly two weeks talking to voters in rural central France & urban areas in S. East & West. A few things I noticed:

4/ Many intending to vote Le Pen hadn't voted Le Pen in any election before & hadn't voted in local elections in the past 5 years.

7/ Voters who said they were undecided didn't mean they were left-wing. There were undecided voters who said they might choose Le Pen


It's all anecdotal but puts a little more paint on the canvas

@Martin - your "painting" seems to [ possibly ] hold more substance than my "gut" ..

Dunno if you can shed any light [ for me ] on the second round poll analysis ..

All suggestions say Le Pen cannot win - who-ever she is up against ..

I just wonder [ as I have no idea - left & right ] .. who's votes will or should go to who ..

Is it simply a case of all losers vote AGAINST Le Pen ??

I have this [ in mind ] at the moment  [ percentage wise ]

26    Le Pen
21    Macron
19    Fillon
19    Mélenchon
9    Hamon
6    Others


So - possible 2nd round  [ I assume only 2 go through ]

Le Pen - Macron
Le Pen - Fillon
Le Pen - Mélenchon

Others may argue - but my mind says that.

So where do the loser votes go .. only one of these can go through

Macron
Fillon
Mélenchon
& the other 15%

Seems its a real complicated affair.

It's very difficult to say where the vote share of losers will split. There will be Le Pen voters from all of them, but heavily outweighed by anti Le Pen voters. It depends on how much the Le Pen lead is after the first round I guess and the momentum that brings.

The interesting one is if Melenchon makes it, Le Pen would then be seen as the more moderate candidate economically. Fillon voters should be the least likely to go Melenchon in theory, but it's a case of hard left economics and extreme hard left economics. Will they just not turn up?

Macron voters will probably split 80 to 20? as the leftists go to Melenchon while the 'I hate all political parties' go to Le Pen?

Hamon, LO, NPA & LR voters should be 100% to Melenchon.

If Fillon makes it then Le Pen has the best chance, she should get a good lump of votes from the Melenchon camp while many Macron voters will not want to touch someone mired in scandal, will they go Le Pen or will they not turn out?

Macron v Le Pen should be a walkover as Macron stands for little and it's just more of the same, an easy anti-vote.

Just some musings.

excellent , betfair behind the opinion polls again

As I suspected, the french elite have found a way of stopping Le Pen.  Their weapon/puppet is called Macron

Macron at 1.16. Is too low and will soon rise a litte?

Macron at 1.16. Is too low and will soon rise a litte?

Terrible for the French people and the future of Europe that the global and French elite have rallied around Macron.

He could not be worse on all the key policies for the working people. He could not be better for the banks, big business and the global elites.

If he wins, as seems likely, it will be green light for more EU integration, more immigration, more open borders, less tax for big business, more intervention in places like Syria and more denial of the causes of terrorism.

^ seethe level 9

Come on IT dont give in - Le Pen is in the second round - the French people still have an opportunity to

vote Nazi - lets see if they take it.

Which one do you think is Nazi?

The one who want France to be sovereign and take back powers for the French people or the one that wants to hand over the more of the state's powers to the German dominated undemocratic EU?

this seethe can go up to eleven

IT - great question. Is it fair to say such a question would never be asked by a BBC journo..?

Apr 24, 2017 -- 1:16PM, Captain Wurzel wrote:

Come on IT dont give in - Le Pen is in the second round - the French people still have an opportunity tovote Nazi - lets see if they take it.

it was her father who denied holocaust. Madame le pen and the Insidertrader's xenophogey betfair brigade hates black africans and muslims. Make them seethe again. The dutch clown was evens to be president. And Madame le pen will lose as well. My prediction 38 % for her.

BREAKING NEWS: French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen announces she is stepping DOWN as party leader to concentrate on presidential bid

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4441258/Marine-Le-Pen-stepping-party...
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

JUST CASHED OUT  BETTER TO HAVE HALF A LOAF THAN NONE AT ALL

Does anyone know when Betfair will remove the eliminated candidates from the market? I have big reds on candidates who can't win, and I'd rather not have to wait another 2 weeks to get access to the funds.

Why is Macron 1.07 when they are currently 50% and 50% at exit polling.

Its 1.05

how is he 1.05 especially as hes just been caught with offshore accounts and tax avoidence , all the value is in le pen this is a two horse race ,

1.01, now. The French have seen what has happened in the UK and in the USA, and said, "Non, merci." Thank Goodness for that! Maybe we can still have some sanity in Global Politics, after all.