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BMG were supposed to put out their final EU poll yesterday, but it was put back for a day because of the murder of Jo Cox and eventually emerged this morning. BMG carried out parallel telephone and online polls, and unlike ICM who no longer find any difference at at in their dual-mode experiments, BMG continue to find a big gulf:
In their online poll BMG found topline figures of REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%. Like other recent polls this reflected a big shift towards leave, with remain down by 2 points, Leave up by 6 points
Third is a poll from a company called qriously, whom I have never previously heard of. As far as I can tell the poll was conducted by embedding survey questions in adverts on smartphone apps. The data is weighted by age, gender, region, past vote and education so is making an effort to produce representative results – the question is to what degree, if at all, the sampling method is capable of producing a representative sample, which we cannot really tell. Their poll between the 13th and 16th June found topline figures of REMAIN 40%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 9% – so more favourable towards Leave than any other polling. They also released figures for people interviewed on Friday morning after Jo Cox’s murder, which were REMAIN 32%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 16% – a significant movement from Remain to don’t know.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
adios motherfruckers
In their online poll BMG found topline figures of REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%. Like other recent polls this reflected a big shift towards leave, with remain down by 2 points, Leave up by 6 points
Third is a poll from a company called qriously, whom I have never previously heard of. As far as I can tell the poll was conducted by embedding survey questions in adverts on smartphone apps. The data is weighted by age, gender, region, past vote and education so is making an effort to produce representative results – the question is to what degree, if at all, the sampling method is capable of producing a representative sample, which we cannot really tell. Their poll between the 13th and 16th June found topline figures of REMAIN 40%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 9% – so more favourable towards Leave than any other polling. They also released figures for people interviewed on Friday morning after Jo Cox’s murder, which were REMAIN 32%, LEAVE 52%, Don’t know 16% – a significant movement from Remain to don’t know.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
adios motherfruckers
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and lots of older dudes aint got smart phones so prob not represented so much in that last poll
and we all know which way they voting
and we all know which way they voting
REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 51%, Don’t know 9%
Don't trust that! They can't add up
Don't trust that! They can't add up
Turnout will be 65% ish (my guess).
The 35% will largely be the young. If I was a Remainer I'd be seriously worried.
The 35% will largely be the young. If I was a Remainer I'd be seriously worried.
odds are mystifying to me... most polls, and word on the street is that 'leave' is well in the lead?
From the word go the people out on the streets going door to door said Brexit will win.
Analysts, Politicians, Big Business, MSM all think remain will win. I think as at the GE the MSM is completely out of touch with what is going on outside of their bubble. A quick speech or photo opportunity surrounded by a few paid supporters means nothing. People are fed up. They are fed up with lots of things. Blair followed by DC/Osborne has done nothing for them. Labour had their chance to shine and they rejected it.
Analysts, Politicians, Big Business, MSM all think remain will win. I think as at the GE the MSM is completely out of touch with what is going on outside of their bubble. A quick speech or photo opportunity surrounded by a few paid supporters means nothing. People are fed up. They are fed up with lots of things. Blair followed by DC/Osborne has done nothing for them. Labour had their chance to shine and they rejected it.
3.1 Brexit now. Out from 2.6 before Thursdays terrible events.
Give it up guys its all over unfortunately. Leave has no chance since the tragic events of Thursday, I'm amazed there are still odds. The whole thing should be postponed for six months or something as far as I'm concerned.
Is it over though? Or is it a case of the MSM and politicians (and gamblers) thinking this event will have a massive effect on voters?
A similar thing had zero effect in Norway. Less and less undecided as time goes on. The free movement thing is big and that has not changed.
A similar thing had zero effect in Norway. Less and less undecided as time goes on. The free movement thing is big and that has not changed.
Don't think it will sway people Loddy sad as this weeks events have been I and many like me will still vote out and remainers will remain ! Maybe some Don't knows will be swayed, we have seemed to of become a nation of grievers especially when it's highlighted by the press. Baby P for instance again tragic and terribly sad, his grave became a shrine with people from all over the country visiting his grave, when in reality his case is not that uncommon which is the real tragedy 
sky just showed a poll with remain in front and one level no mention of the polls showing leave in front today,and mention MOS and times backing in ,not that their biased at all , FFS
Sky is a strange one. Sun backs Brexit yet some execs/journos seem to be pushing the EU agenda at Sky owned by the same concern.
Murdoch the double dealing thatcher lover at it again , when will the people learn
Rupert always follows the money , because that's all he cares about
Is anyone doing what I'm doing? I've bet on 'STAY' (as a saver) but will be voting 'LEAVE' and very much hope we do leave!
Maybe this is why 'STAY' is as low as 1.5 when it should be evens - LEAVERS are covering themselves!
Maybe this is why 'STAY' is as low as 1.5 when it should be evens - LEAVERS are covering themselves!
Hey Burt, how's it going? I thought I would be getting a lot earache from you when the price spiked a few days ago 
(although I was out of betfair range at the time) You were right about the price spikes in the run up ,surprised me a bit, tbh, but it is on the way down again, now!
(although I was out of betfair range at the time) You were right about the price spikes in the run up ,surprised me a bit, tbh, but it is on the way down again, now!
Seems to be an awful lot of these "polling companies" springing up. Where have they all come from? My guess is that it's the same people who do these so-called surveys that fly in the face of everything anyone has ever believed (e.g. eating well and exercising won't make any difference, after all or being in debt makes you happy, that sort of thing!, with no proper peer-reviewing,thorough sampling or real evidence. The problem is that there are so many people in University these days, they have to find something for them to do, otherwise what are they doing there? So they try to justify their wasted Uni years, by coming out with "surveys", "studies" and "polls" which, more often than not are of no use to anybody! I'm not talking about genuine medical research, although some of that is dubious as well.
The political elite along with some others from that part of society live in a big bubble, often surrounded by lackeys. They really had no clue how much they are despised, anything they recommend is highly likely to be laughed at. Its the masses sticking two fingers up at them.
UK polling report by Anthony Wells 19th June.
Like the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, YouGov in the Sunday Times show Remain ahead again following the pro-Leave polls a week ago. Topline figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday (full tabs are here). Almost inevitably people are going to look at these polls and assume that the murder of Jo Cox on Thursday has caused the move back towards remain.
My own view is that Jo Cox’s death probably isn’t the cause of the reverse. YouGov also conducted a poll on Wednesday-Thursday for ITV, and that already showed Leave’s lead falling (and indeed, a third of the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before Jo Cox’s death was announced). Looking at the rest of the questions, there is also a marked shift in people’s views on how they think leaving the EU would impact their finances – 33% of people now think that they would be worse off outside the EU, compared to 23% a fortnight ago.
The historic trend in referendums is for people to move towards the status quo. In Scotland a couple of years ago a couple of polls a fortnight out were neck-and-neck, but moved back to a clear NO lead by the final polls (and there was a further swing on the day itself). In the EU referendum polls have consistently shown that people think leave is the riskier choice and that people think it will damage the economy. While it was never inevitable, this has always suggested that late movement towards Remain was quite likely. If people are increasingly worried about Brexit’s impact on their own personal finances, then even more so.
Of course, we will never know for sure. The reality is that we can see changes in headline voting intention in polls, but we can never be certain what causes them: all we can do is look at what events happened at the same time and at what changes there have been in other questions in the poll that might have driven a shift. What we do know is that, whatever the reason, we’ve got four new polls tonight – some before Jo Cox’s death, some after – with three of them showing a shift back towards Remain.
Like the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, YouGov in the Sunday Times show Remain ahead again following the pro-Leave polls a week ago. Topline figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday (full tabs are here). Almost inevitably people are going to look at these polls and assume that the murder of Jo Cox on Thursday has caused the move back towards remain.
My own view is that Jo Cox’s death probably isn’t the cause of the reverse. YouGov also conducted a poll on Wednesday-Thursday for ITV, and that already showed Leave’s lead falling (and indeed, a third of the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before Jo Cox’s death was announced). Looking at the rest of the questions, there is also a marked shift in people’s views on how they think leaving the EU would impact their finances – 33% of people now think that they would be worse off outside the EU, compared to 23% a fortnight ago.
The historic trend in referendums is for people to move towards the status quo. In Scotland a couple of years ago a couple of polls a fortnight out were neck-and-neck, but moved back to a clear NO lead by the final polls (and there was a further swing on the day itself). In the EU referendum polls have consistently shown that people think leave is the riskier choice and that people think it will damage the economy. While it was never inevitable, this has always suggested that late movement towards Remain was quite likely. If people are increasingly worried about Brexit’s impact on their own personal finances, then even more so.
Of course, we will never know for sure. The reality is that we can see changes in headline voting intention in polls, but we can never be certain what causes them: all we can do is look at what events happened at the same time and at what changes there have been in other questions in the poll that might have driven a shift. What we do know is that, whatever the reason, we’ve got four new polls tonight – some before Jo Cox’s death, some after – with three of them showing a shift back towards Remain.
As much as I want 'LEAVE' to win, I fear the current 'don't knows' will err on the side of caution COME Thursday (it's what people do when they can't make up their minds!) and give a small win to 'STAY', unfortunately.
polls will be made public today? i am from Romania and not understand very good brexit pulse from uk? thanks
Does anybody know anyone who has been asked in a poll? Given that 50,000 people myst have been asked by now we must know somebody?
I ask because I suspect some of the pollsters are more bothered about getting the free advertising rather than actually asking people their opinion.
I ask because I suspect some of the pollsters are more bothered about getting the free advertising rather than actually asking people their opinion.
all good des, u alright?
looked over didn't it
now it doesn't
looked over didn't it
now it doesn't
Hey Burt, have you been out campaigning?
It looked over, then it didn't, now it looks over again.
The biggest spikes happened when I was abroad, so I couldn't really take advantage. Still, can't be greedy! I'll still makes lots of doe.
Seriously though, it was beginning to look quite close, until some nutter decided to murder the M.P. The mood has changed again, I think!
It looked over, then it didn't, now it looks over again.
The biggest spikes happened when I was abroad, so I couldn't really take advantage. Still, can't be greedy! I'll still makes lots of doe.
Seriously though, it was beginning to look quite close, until some nutter decided to murder the M.P. The mood has changed again, I think!
too busy now to go out campaigning
mood has changed but i dont know anyone that has changed their mind over this although no doubt some have
still think it will be a landslide to leave amongst the working class
word is that the leave vote from the postal votes is 80% out
i was 100% confident we were out before last thursday and though my £100 at prices from 90/1 down to 25/1 on over 60% was in with a great chance
not so confident now of course
just wish i had been up in yorkshire last thursday i would have shoved that knife up that sick counts arsse
just think dessie if its 51% out we both lose
i would take that though, no prob
mood has changed but i dont know anyone that has changed their mind over this although no doubt some have
still think it will be a landslide to leave amongst the working class
word is that the leave vote from the postal votes is 80% out
i was 100% confident we were out before last thursday and though my £100 at prices from 90/1 down to 25/1 on over 60% was in with a great chance
not so confident now of course
just wish i had been up in yorkshire last thursday i would have shoved that knife up that sick counts arsse
just think dessie if its 51% out we both lose
i would take that though, no prob
If leave get 51% it is clear, we are out of the EU permanently. Equally, if 51% vote Remain, the question is settled for good.
Share your sentiments Burt. I think many of us would have loved to have been there last week...I would gladly have given my life for that lady.
Bernard Kenny (77). To risk his life and tackle an armed man 20 years his junior was incredible. What a wonderful man.
Bernard Kenny (77). To risk his life and tackle an armed man 20 years his junior was incredible. What a wonderful man.
Looks over to me
I'm not convinced the Cox murder will have a major impact on changing views (more likely to firm up views) but its definitely killed all the momentum Leave was building up.
The media are currently making sure its stays top of mind as well (shame on them for showing Alistair Campbell's sickening exploitation of that poor woman's death)
Leave needs a decent lead (10% maybe) because most of the undecideds always stick with the status quo.
And because you always get a last minute swing back to the status quo.
Of course, a low turn out gives Leave a better chance.
Let it rain. hard !
I'm not convinced the Cox murder will have a major impact on changing views (more likely to firm up views) but its definitely killed all the momentum Leave was building up.
The media are currently making sure its stays top of mind as well (shame on them for showing Alistair Campbell's sickening exploitation of that poor woman's death)
Leave needs a decent lead (10% maybe) because most of the undecideds always stick with the status quo.
And because you always get a last minute swing back to the status quo.
Of course, a low turn out gives Leave a better chance.
Let it rain. hard !
I would love to see what the remain camp see in staying in the EU because I don't see it and I am half French/Italian
Jun 19, 2016 -- 7:35PM, macarony wrote:
I would love to see what the remain camp see in staying in the EU because I don't see it and I am half French/Italian
A job in Brussels and a nice fat pension.
Classic post Macarony. I think in those few words you have spoke volumes
We all know the gravy train Shab. The Kinnocks will have to get used to surviving off the millions that the family have milked from each and every one of us
Honestly from my point of view Britain from my British point of view is Britain would be better off with the commonwealth. Has for my continental perspective, the EU would be better off without Britain because it is main protagonist of the drag your feet let us not get to integrated point of view, You/we are stopping a united states of Europe from happening no wonder Obama was so keen for us stay in the EU as united states of Europe would be stronger than the USA
Serious question for Burt06:
How can someone opening the postal vote outer envelope to check signatures get an idea what has been marked on the ballot in the inner envelope? Unless they can hold it up to the light or something.
How can someone opening the postal vote outer envelope to check signatures get an idea what has been marked on the ballot in the inner envelope? Unless they can hold it up to the light or something.
Its not a train yet for Remain, but it looks quite relentless, small offers for 2/5 have been eaten up, 4/11 has been smashed and now 1/3 is being devoured.
The media are making sure the Cox murder remains top of the agenda, the latest polls are having an impact and the Pound has bounced back today
next stop looks like 1/4
The media are making sure the Cox murder remains top of the agenda, the latest polls are having an impact and the Pound has bounced back today
next stop looks like 1/4
Its over. Leave would have won but as of 2pm Thursday its been over I said it at the time. Can't believe remain is not 1/10.
Yes 3-10 and 2-7 now for remain all across the board unless there is a big turnaround I think remain will win, some firms betting on the percentage that remain will get 50/55 per cent is 11-8 and 55/60 is 9-4 both being .
Because the polls and betting were wrong in the general election I am refusing to get excited about this latest shift. Hopeful but not yet excited.
This is a carbon copy of the Scottish vote in 2014, looks like we're staying in the EU.
Did someone get shot and be used as a weeks worth of propaganda in the Scottish poll?
The shock in the final week in Scotland was more concessions to Scotland if they stayed in the UK. In this vote the UK government have no powers to offer last minute concessions.
And only one or two polls a fortnight before the vote put yes slightly ahead the rest were completely different.
Leave was coming in until that incident. The whole vote will be decided on the back of it. Its despicable and should not be going ahead.
Leave was coming in until that incident. The whole vote will be decided on the back of it. Its despicable and should not be going ahead.
couldn't agree more loddy, this tragic incident has skewed this referendum.
the people on the Remain side of the vote (government, business, banks, the media) control countries, armies, the financial system, education, health and all of the mainstream media content we consume, did you really think theyd lose a vote?
look what happens in other countries, politicians get killed off all the time to change elections, why should the UK be any different in the eyes of a multinational corporation to somewhere in west africa where political assassination is the norm?
they were never going to let it happen
look what happens in other countries, politicians get killed off all the time to change elections, why should the UK be any different in the eyes of a multinational corporation to somewhere in west africa where political assassination is the norm?
they were never going to let it happen
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