EU Referendum

I think the format favoured Cameron because all of his answers can be scripted prior to the event, and he can present them well.

Got to say though that the format is rubbish for debating the issue.

I think robert peston is trying to do an impression of Donald sutherland in Kelly's Heroes

Very wacky that preston

Tories favourite pollster thinks we'll brexit.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/tories-favorite-pollster-predicts-britain-will-vote-for-brexit/
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Remain getting backed off the boards last 24 hours. Is it all over bar the shouting?

Anyone know why such a big market move for Remain? Seems strange as not alot has happened in the past 24 hours apart from the extension to the registration.

must be an assumption that all these extra younger voters are mostly backing remain. Is there any evidence for this assumption, tho ?

Platini
Is there any evidence for this assumption, tho ?

Yes, numbers show the late registrants were mainly young voters, and theres a strong correlation between age and voting intention, ie younger more likely to vote remain, older more likely to vote brexit

Which is why these 'boohoo the EU is so undemocratic' brexit whingers would be happy for the late registrants to be denied their vote by a computer glitch

My first instinct tells me younger votes are likelier to vote remain but I don't think anyone can be confident, we just don't have the data from previous referendums to go on. It is just an assumption is it not?

its based on polling data, and shows a clear correlation

of course, whether you believe polling data or not is a separate issue

Price heding south again. that's evidence enough for me. pity, I would quite like to get another few grand on at 1.48 or above.

Think the price was more to do with the defector wasn't it? Obviously timed so it becomes the main topic of debate tonight.

Outers reached a point where victory seemed within their grasp a few days ago - now you can just feel it slipping away from them.

Jun 9, 2016 -- 6:51AM, Loddy wrote:

Think the price was more to do with the defector wasn't it? Obviously timed so it becomes the main topic of debate tonight.

Think you are right Loddy, lots of personally-ambitious hypocrites (on both sides). I wonder if more tory would-be "up and comers" on brexit side are getting skittish and ready to jump ship!

You are also right, Good Captain!

price gone north again I see.  Boris on tonight tho should see another trip back south

The price will move up and down over the next few weeks. A trading dream!

I got on at 3.75 yesterday expecting Farage to make it shorten - I was wrong there, but got more on at 4.4 at lunchtime as it got too big with a fortnight to go.

What is the definition of young when they claim the majority of registrations were "young"?

I also think there is a strong possibility that some of these are registering to vote leave, you know youngsters that have been apathetic towards politics but are paying attention to this through watching social media videos etc.

I know personally of a few neighbours/relatives kids that have registered to vote for the first time just to vote out, so though it may well be an advantage for remain I wouldn't go too overboard about it.

It is hardly a "trading dream",at the moment. these movements from 1.36 up to 1.44 and back down to 1.3, then 1.38,, 1.33 then down to 1.27 or so, then back up to 1.33 are hardly worth bothering with! When we got 1.4 up to 1.6 then down to 1.19 via various stops at 1.26  then back up to 1.44 then it was worth trading if you had a good few grand to play with. I hope we get more of the 1.6, but I doubt it somehow.

Could be barking up the wrong tree with the young, visit the popular social media sites used by the young and you won't come away with the impression that the majority will be voting to stay.

that would be the online f*cknut magnet effect

Bit of upward movement at last, just had a chunk taken at 1.47 & 1.48. Keep it up lads! If I can get 1.6 + I'll be like a pig in clover.

Don't worry Des, you will

seems to have levelled off for now. Another few hundred for the holidays

Could be barking up the wrong tree with the young, visit the popular social media sites used by the young and you won't come away with the impression that the majority will be voting to stay.


Depends on their backgrounds.
Middle class Remain
Working class Leave.

That is the division.

1.56 taken today (gotta love xenophobia, LOL!) Looks like it might have got as high as 1.58/159. Left some 1.7 to 1.75 while I'm on holiday As if! Brexiters I thank you!

There was a big move for an hour or two this morning and this was after it went in a bit to 1.44 ish no real explanation but seemed to be a lot of money down. I was expecting a poll announcement that hasn't come, so I can't work out what it was all about.

Maybe the unveiling of Gordon Brown lol

It's not Gordon Brown as such; it is the realisation that Cameron is failing, so they are letting Labour people become the face of the campaign. It might sway Labour voters, because that is where the outcome of the vote lies.

Labour are just digging themselves a bigger hole.

Well they have tried to avoid digging that hole for the whole campaign so far by taking a back seat, but it is desperation stakes now.

Too late, only thing that will save them now is a Brexit.

The spike was caused by fears/histeria after the shootings in USA, imo. Maybe also, the apparent discord among supposed football fans in Europe. it has all led to a general feeling of angst, i think! I honestly think most people are not that bothered about what the politicians say!

No you are way off. It was specific to a couple of hour period this morning. All that happened yesterday.

There is an ICM poll out for the Guardian today I think, maybe its that.

Jun 13, 2016 -- 8:23AM, Loddy wrote:

No you are way off. It was specific to a couple of hour period this morning. All that happened yesterday.There is an ICM poll out for the Guardian today I think, maybe its that.

I know exactly when it happened because I have the bets on my statement. This is the biggest spike since the Brussels terorism incident. The highest it has gone since than was a brief spike to 1.6 on 20th April at 13:12 and 21st April at 09:41, when a chunk of mine was snaffled. It has never reached that level again, although it came close this morning. the only price I had between 1.55 and 1.6 today was 1.55/1.56 which were taken at 10:18 and 10:44 this morning. Do you think that what happened yesterday cannot still resonate today?

1.46 now.

You are wrong Des simples. There are rumors of an ICM poll and the pound has been reacting. I sat and watched that market and a lot of money came down pushing the price out very quickly to 1.55 from 1.44 I am talking within minutes.

Thats not a delayed reaction to yesterdays news.

OK Loddy, I'm not going to argue with you. I know -to the second-, when my bets were taken. I have over 13k on this market now, so you can rest assured I am watching it very closely indeed! On the 24th, if I have lost the guts of that money, then feel free to come on and tell me I got it wrong! If I am almost £6k better off, I might come on here, and confirm that I got it right! Although I am more likely to be on another holiday, enjoying the money! I'm not interested in polls or rumours of polls. I have my own way of reading the market, and it is working very well!

Don't care what you have or what you don't have. Just telling how I saw it and there was a reaction to something and the market moved out 10 tics in about 2 minutes and has spent the rest of the day closing it back.

You don't get reaction like that to yesterday afternoons news, it was someone acting on information (possibly false) or someone with a load of cash had just sat down and watched last weeks question time on the iplayer.

There are lots of twitter rumours today the most recent one is that the new ICM poll has remain with a 5 point lead and the pound seems to have reacted.

OK Loddy, All the best!

ICM poll out at 5pm apparently. There is an old poll being retweeted from may don't fall for it.

1.61 now...heading north too

1.63 as I posted last

This dude Des Pond is a proper mug laying off now. Quarter inch thick pottery mug that would keep your tea warm for a whole morning.

If I was the EU , the five presidents would be offering the UK an opt out on home affairs and justice regulations ( like the one Denmark has ) along with an extra £2bn off that net contribution to swing things back towards them. But this is the EU, an organisation that is not nimble enough to do this, and it's main job is to support farm owners anyway, they could not be more remote from the job in hand.

So the EU loving classes cannot reverse the momentum of the last two weeks. Unless an outside force comes in, once something is moving, according to the laws of motion discovered by Isaac Newton who was from Great Britain coincidentally, they keep on moving.

I think Des is backing remain and has been for ages, only laying when it got down to 1.2ish I think

Des Pond - you must be selling your wife to get on at these prices?

£25k available at 1.66 for you

Great to see the polls moving our way but I do think remain is value now. Horrible feeling we may have peaked a bit too soon and woken a few remainers up. Will be gutted if so and I don't even have any money on it.

A poll being this close is good for Leave after some massive polls in their favour. We don't want to become complacent!

Anybody know why the Remain price is continuing to shorten? Currently 1.53/2.88

Surely it is not just due to the threatening budget cuts and the Geldof boat pranks? The poll last night was just in favour of Remain, but the move today has been from 1.7 last night. Confused.

Maybe the Remain bettors are thinking they have landed a blow? I think this is approaching a nice price for Leave for a trade.

Michael Gove was less than convincing with the audience Q&A tonight.

gove was disappointing........ farage would have done a lot better

I thought Gove was very good, remaining very calm in the face of some shuoutey thick people in the audience (esp that studenty type woman), thick as pigsh1t she was, had absolutely no valid arguments.

Well, it's been quite a week! Those of you who said that there would be bigger movements in the last week before the vote. You were RIGHT. There were some fairly dramatic spikes that I was not anticipating! I haven't had betfair access since Monday, so I haven't really been able to take advantage (apart from having a few bob waiting at 1.7)but the price seems to have settled back down a bit. ( despite horses called Churchill and Sir Isaac Newton winning at Ascot! ) I wonder if there will be more of the same in the run up to Thursday! Maybe, but I think that the murder of the young M.P. may have changed the mood! It seems to have dampened the momentum of the Out campaign.

farage would have done a lot better



Mugs like you have more faith in farage than a saint has in Jesus Christ.

The only thing farage does is alienate people who aren't among his cadre of fervent supporters.

Thats why the leave campaign have tried as hard as possible to keep him in the background of this campaign.

Quite noticeable swings in prices today, currently Leave bobbing between 4 and 4.4

Are there any polls due out tonight?

Very big referendum polling night ahead with ORB phone, YouGov online and the National Centre's figures. From Mike Smithsons Twitter.

Just got in from a round of golf (knackered), haven't laid anything off yet! Was going to leave some lays at 1.14 and below, but didn't bother. How low did it get, about 1.12 or so? Anyway, I think I might just leave it now. Unless it gets to sub 1.08 or so in the next couple of hours before I fall asleep!

sub 1.08 by 22:05

Maybe, I might shove a few grand at 1.06, or so, before I conk out!

I agree with john and pm there is some thing not right.and I will hold my bet till it's down to it's last fiver

If you're so confident Des Pond put it on at 1.14

Nah, Pauilow, I've had loads at anything from 1.38 to 1.7, most at 1.48 plus. I even got some 1.4, yesterday and some 1.52 a few days ago. there's no way I'm going in again at 1.14.

Dont blame you, I got a nice chunk at 1.7 odd last week as well

Yep, that was a gift. Pity I was abroad, or else I could really have made hay! Glad I left some up though.

I was away too, but luckily in London and smartphones are a godsend

I don' trust myself betting with smartphones, too hamfisted!

Britain brought to it's knees by the murder of a single person.
Think how many have died to give Britain freedom and taken away by one death.
Unbelievable really.

The only saving grace is that the Eu will implode in the next few years anyway

there you go, des!

A tragic and senseless murder. I think the vote  was only ever going one way, though.

Nice one, Die Linke. Your a minute or 2 too late, though!

Jun 23, 2016 -- 4:08PM, Des Pond wrote:

A tragic and senseless murder. I think the vote

Back up to 1.13, now Maybe because Chukka amoney opened his gob on radio.

It's odd these movements. I assume it is just the traders from today positioning themselves before the result.

I think this is close tonight

Jun 23, 2016 -- 4:57PM, Spock wrote:

I think this is close tonight

Really hope so!

massive % of postal votes, wheres the conspiracy theorists?

honestly i dont trust the uk authorities one bit

Is there some sort of independent / corporate body taking exit polls from 300+ stations?

Financial Institutions have commissioned polls, apparently.

As everyone knows, exit polls are the most reliable metric

I'm not sure how much useful data the Banks/Financial institutions will be able to get, tbh. I think it's more a case of trying to create the impression that they have their finger on the pulse this time. Unlike before, when the Credit Crunch caught them with their pants down!

Gibraltar votes remain.

Here we go boys... Sunderland guess work bringing prices up :)

You've probably seen this, but it is funny. Michael Gove - Independance Day!

Sh!t, didn't work! good cartoon, though!

1.22, wtf?

Sunderland rumoured to be 62% - expected 54% Leave
Newcastle expected 60% Remain, rumour 50%

BBC

Also there is not so much money in the market tonight - nothing like the 100s of thousands today - so moving the price does not take too much

I don't know much about that part of the country, but I would have thought they would have similar demographics and similar issues, therefore similar results. but, then I suppose it's more of a personal/Individual choice.

Jun 23, 2016 -- 5:56PM, Shab wrote:

Also there is not so much money in the market tonight - nothing like the 100s of thousands today - so moving the price does not take too much

Suicide to keep money in the market. As someone at a count with an unexpected result could hoover.

Good point about market volume

Jun 23, 2016 -- 5:57PM, Des Pond wrote:

I don't know much about that part of the country, but I would have thought they would have similar demographics and similar issues, therefore similar results.  but, then I suppose it's more of a personal/Individual choice.

Newcastle is full of Gov. workers and students.

Yes, good point CJ

1.4

2-7 remain 5-2 LEAVE

Seriously, if there are no exit polls at every station, how can anyone know?

Back in the game lads. 1.4

Bloody hell! from 6.5 K to sixty quid in about 4 hours I will get no end of earache now! Hope Burt hasn't noticed.

tried to warn u dude

Jun 23, 2016 -- 10:25PM, Burt06 wrote:

tried to warn u dude

Yep. you did. My own fault for being too complacent. Ah well, no harm done I suppose. To think I could have cashed out for over 4 grand, just after 10.pm. Hope you won some money. Turnout must have surprised you, though?

Well done to the Out backers, hope you made plenty, and it wasn't just the big predators that got it all!

Thought I was gonna make 5/6 grand or so, ended up with nothing (more or less) Could easily have made 3/4 grand, if I'd the sense to cash out or lay off after polling closed (god knows there were enough chances!)Then again, if I was sensible like that I wouldn't be on here, would I? Ah well!  Never mind, onwards and upwards.  Footy and Boxing tomorrow, always something to bet on.