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2015 election - next government - "any other" value?

mikeyc

09 Feb 15 16:26

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Date Joined: 03 Jan 03

| Topic/replies: 16 | Blogger: mikeyc's blog

I am just wondering what i'm missing here. Given the recent polls predicting 50+ seats for the SNP - eg http://goo.gl/aIAArX - isn't 5.4 for "any other coalition" an absolute bargain?

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Replies: 9

By:

CJ70 When: 09 Feb 15 21:20

Not really, because the SNP result directly effects the Labour result making a Con Gov more likely. If you are looking at Lab/SNP I'd back that directly with the books at 8/9's

By:

Howdi When: 09 Feb 15 21:43

I agree with OP may be a touch of value in it. Don't discount a minority gvment though

By:

cheese When: 10 Feb 15 12:25

I posted this before. Yes, a snp-labour alliance is probably the most likely possible outcome at the moment,
but it is still significantly more likely not to happen than happen (and if you don't understand why these things
are notcontradictory give up betting).

What isn't clear to me is what the definition of "any other" is. Say Labour win outright but the Green MP or MP's
decide to join with Labour. That's technically a coalition but I think Labour backers would be aggreived if they didn't
get paid.

By:

mikeyc When: 10 Feb 15 19:08

thanks cheese and happily i do understand why the most likely outcome is still unlikely! I still think that (now) 5.6 looks very long given that we agree it's the most likely outcome as things currently stand.

i have put my money where my mouth is, incidentally. odds of around 3.5 or so seem about right for this option to me.

By:

CJ70 When: 11 Feb 15 18:36

Feb 10, 2015 -- 12:25PM, cheese wrote:

I posted this before. Yes, a snp-labour alliance is probably the most likely possible outcome at the moment,but it is still significantly more likely not to happen than happen (and if you don't understand why these thingsare notcontradictory give up betting).What isn't clear to me is what the definition of "any other" is. Say Labour win outright but the Green MP or MP'sdecide to join with Labour. That's technically a coalition but I think Labour backers would be aggreived if they didn'tget paid.

How are you defining joining with Labour? If it's a Martin Bell situation where he was basically a Lab MP in all but name being whipped you'd be fine in betting terms. Also if Green MP's defected to Labour in order to form a Gov you'd be fine.

If it's a case where the Green's give tacit support to Labour issue by issue Labour minority would be settled.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 11 Feb 15 18:48

CJ,
I am fairly certain SNP wish to contribute to the Westminster parliament but do not wish to actively disrupt it for political means.

By:

CJ70 When: 11 Feb 15 18:53

Feb 11, 2015 -- 6:48PM, Meadow X1 wrote:

CJ, I am fairly certain SNP wish to contribute to the Westminster parliament but do not wish to actively disrupt it for political means.

In that case a coalition would be out in favour of propping up a min Lab Gov? Would be a big difference in betting terms.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 12 Feb 15 09:33

My understanding is that the SNP may support Labour on a vote by vote basis but will not enter into a formal coalition.

By:

pawras When: 12 Feb 15 10:46

SNP have one goal and one goal only, Scottish independence , and anything they do is with that in mind