US 2012 Presidential Race and Primaries - my bets

Finished bets

Minnesota +£32.00

Gingrich	Lay	£42.00	@3.49	42.00
	Back	£10.00	@5.20	- 10.00

Current bets

Virginia

Santorum	Lay	£16.99	@9.46
Gingrich	Lay	£16.71	@8.87

Arizona

Gingrich

Lay

£12.00

@4.00

Current bets

GOP Nominee

Romney	Back	£80.00	@1.46
	Lay	£50.00	@1.20
Santorum	Back	£4.00	@50.00
Jeb Bush	Back	£2.00	@210.00
Gingrich	Lay	£35.00	@3.05

Next President

Jeb Bush	Back	£2.00	@350.00
Mitch Daniels	Back	£2.00	@250.00

All odds are weighted averages, and current bets are likely to change before they are settled :)

Finished bets

Michigan + £41.33

Romney	Back	£27.81	@ 1.41	11.33
Santorum	Lay	£30	@ 2.80	30.00

Arizona + £6.23

Romney	Back	£3	@ 1.22	0.66
Gingrich	Lay	£4	@ 4.00	4.00
Santorum	Back	£6	@ 5.00	-6.00
Santorum	Lay	£7.57	@ 3.30	7.57

well, i know next to nothing  about these matters, but the 210.0 Geb Bush for GOP nominee looks like value to me ... at least he's not a Mormon and he hasn't had a chance to pi$$ everyone off yet ... just went to put a tenner on him and he's now 80!

Gus Rating: Hold

Jeb was 32 to lay the other day

Go Jeb!

all you need to reckon up is who the international bankers

want as their puppet president and youve cracked it

maybe late in the day theyll wheel out the appalling jeb

bush (oh my gawd not another bush- im sure its just a

coincidence) or even the lovely

general petraeus

I appreciate your comments, though I would like to keep this more as a record of my bets, not for general discussions. I've already cashed in on Bush to be nominee, but for most bets, I will only update them when they are settled (I will include all settled bets, until the nomination). My best investment, so far, was probably Santorum at 50:1, although again, I have long since cashed in on that (at between 6-8:1).

My one currently standing long shot, apart from Daniels and Bush becoming president, is for Hillary Clinton to be the next president: £2 at 400:1. It is still some time to the convention, and stranger things have happened in the past. I think Obama has a > 98% chance of becoming the nominee in September, but not a > 99.5% chance of being on top of the ticket on November 6th, and if he is not, I don't see anyone other than Clinton to replace him (it would be at a moment of national crisis).

Same thought crossed my mind, appletree. If a week's a long time in politics, how about nine months?

Obama is vulnerable because of the economy, and I don't think he would survive the sorts of scandals that engulfed Bill Clinton and John Edwards. And the health of middle-aged men in stressful jobs is always on the line; think about John Smith, Robin Cook and Michael Heseltine on this side of the Atlantic.

Same deal applies to Romney, of course.

That said, Hillary will 65 in November and has always been something of a hate figure to Republicans, so she would be no certainty to step in should something happen to the incumbent.

The way I've played it to lay everyone at the top of the market, and to generally trade around, to leave a free bet on all these wild longshots.

Even completely setting aside faint question marks about the nomination, Obama is probably too short at 1.6. If I had deep pockets and could afford to tie up funds for nine months, I'd be happy enough to field against him at these levels.

How are primaries settled? Most votes or most delegates? Not clear in the settlement rules, but can make a big difference.

What does everyone reckon for Super Tuesday then?

yawn---you would think republican party could come up with better candidates

i think rightwing christians--HATE ROMNEY

cant see a mormon being president

even donny & marie osmond cant help him

Romney cannot fail to strengthen his overall position tonight, even if he comes second in Ohio and Tennessee. The way the delegates are divided will ensure he'll win the majority tonight.

For betting purposes, whilst polls show Romney has a narrow lead in Ohio, I think the 7/2 on offer at PP for Santorum is worth a little interest. It wouldn't take much of a swing to see Santorum take Ohio and Romney's wife saying she doesn't consider herself to be rich last night will not do her husband's aim of connecting with the blue-collar workers any favours.  I think it should be more of a 1/2 Romney, 6/4 Santorum situation.

^I think you have to oppose romney in ohio at the prices. (currently 1.2 to lay).

the polls have been closing, but it's still basically neck and neck, and apparent light early turnout may well favour santorum.

you wouldn't want to pile in, but as you say, it's worth an interest.

Like you say, the polls show it's basically neck and neck, although what people say to a pollster and what they do in the voting booth can perhaps be different. You can't argue Romney has the momentum but the undecided religous base could revert to type and vote for Santorum.

Romney may well win tonight but I can't see why anyone would think 1.18 is the right price.

I see some money has gone up to lay Romney just now.

My error, it looks like someone wants to back Romney - good luck to them.

lot of money being dripped in to lay romney now.

guy with most money going to win

democracy at its finest.

This isn't over just yet

Unlucky, Romney layers. You got the value, but he somehow scraped an ugly win, which has been the pattern of the campaign.

What's saving the guy is that Santorum and Gingrich are splitting the conservative vote. Santorum would have hacked up in Ohio otherwise.

Apparently Romney can't put this to bed until June at the earliest (when California votes) so there's still a long way to go.

I turned to the CNN election map last night, saw the polls coming in, and started buying Romney - unfortunately, I had most of my money locked up in other markets, and was not going to break my vow not to bet more than £500, but it looked pretty obvious that Santorum's lead was from the rural counties. I have to admit that I got cold feet at some point (when Santorum was still leading with some 75% reporting), but luckily, I hung in.

Newly settled bets, as of yesterday:

Tennessee + £10.00

Gingrich

@5.84

£10.00

Lay

+ 10.00

Virginia + 36.70

Gingrich	@8.87	£16.71	Lay	16.71
Santorum	@14.75	£19.99	Lay	19.99

Virginia was risk-free money, of course, and one of the reasons I signed up to betfair in the first place.

Ohio is still not settled, which is fine (avoid another Iowa). I'll have a look at the next primary states, I don't think there is a lot of money to be made from the nomination race (laying Paul and Gingrich is 100% safe, but boring). Perhaps the VP race gets some attention soon, I have some very strong opinions on who will not be VP...

Oh, and I just made it sound like I knew Romney was going to win all the way - that was not the case, and it could have gone for Santorum, but I thought at £1.25 and above, Romney was good value for money. I would not have bought Romney at £1.10.

Regarding Hillary: She has already said that she will not seek another term as secretary of state. The only circumstances during which she might change her mind, I assume, is in a national crisis - which is also the only way that Obama will not be the nominee. I don't see this happening, I don't hope it happens, but chances are probably bigger than 100:1. Also, if there is such a crisis, Hillary Clinton will easily beat "businessman" Romney or "exorcist" Santorum.

ohio still not settled

I noticed that, and I am curious as to why - if Santorum were to win Ohio like he won Iowa, there will be a huge outcry about a conspiracy, because this would have certainly given him a lot of momentum, and could have conceivably swung Illinois (where he is certain to lose today, but was close up to a few days ago). I don't think this is going to happen though, as various news sources report "100% of precincts reporting".

http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-gop-results-map-ohio/

The interesting race now is the GOP VP spot. I consider Rubio the clear favourite (as do many), because he is popular in Florida, because he has appeal to the "base", and because he could cut into the Republican deficit with Latinos. However, Romney would be wise to wait, and possibly select someone from a more critical swing state, if polls suggests Florida is leaning Republican anyway.

However, I am much more certain about who will not be VP (among those with reasonable odds, I don't care about Donald Trump, Herman Cain et al., who have no chance but are also at 1000:1 to lay).

Rand Paul - that would only make sense because Ron Paul has some delegates, but this would be exactly the kind of deal-making that looks bad to voters. Rand Paul is inexperienced, and many will see him as not trustworthy as potential Commander in Chief. He would bring his own organisation to the Romney campaign, but they won't like that. And on many issues, he is further to the right than Romney needs to be in the general election. Romney will likely do something to please the Libertarians, if he has to, but not put Rand Paul on the ticket. Chance 1-2%


Rick Santorum - him on the ticket would be even worse than Rand Paul. He is seen by many as extreme, has been highly critical of Romney, including strong personal attacks, and does not appeal to a different demographic group like Rubio; he even went out of his way to alienate latinos (in Puerto Rico) and African Americans ("welfare for black people" - "oh no, I said blah people"). He is from a swing state, but he has lost there badly, so that won't help. Chance < 1%