Is Romney in Trouble?

Romney has the money and the structure to stay long enough for the Newt Bubble to burst, which is still the most likely outcome imho. However, if it does not burst, and if Romney comes out badly hurt, I still cannot imagine Newt winning the nomination. With that prospect, the GOP leaders will most likely draft someone like Rubio, Jindal, Christie or Jeb Bush. Interestingly, Bush is still refusing to endorse Romney in Florida, where his endorsement would be worth quite a bit. Perhaps we already see some signs?

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/288986/draft-jeb-bush-artur-davis

Three polls out overnight give Gingrich a substantial lead in Florida, so the momentum continues. Ladbrks make him 1/2 to take the state.

If Romney loses here his campaign could be over.

After Florida, Rick Santorum is likely to withdraw from the race. He's currently splitting the right-wing vote, so in future primaries that would be another 15% or so likely to break the way of Gingrich.

It's still not too later for Romney to turn things around, but it's basically now or never.

If there was a bet on a pre-nomination Santorum-endorsement for Gingrich, I would bet against it at 5:1. I agree that his staying in the race helps Mitt Romney as it splits the "conservative" vote, but he would never endorse someone with the perceived personal baggage of Newt.

Doesn't really matter, Karla.  He gave more than you'll ever produce in your life.

Hope you're right, appletree. I've laid Romney, Gingrich and Ron Paul, leaving a cheap bet on someone else entering the race.

'Unlikely, but not unrealistic' seems like a fair assessment.

Are you suggesting that Romney should be at 3/1? I still think it is more likely than not that he will be the nominee, but it is not as certain as it seemed just a week ago.

However, that poll covered January 18-22nd, i.e. after the CNN debate, where Gingrich trounced Romney, but before the NBC debate on the 23rd, where Romney started to hit back. I am not entirely sure Romney will rebounce, but he seems to be determined to at least destroy Newt, if he has to.

If Romney does not win the nomination, I am fairly certain the nominee won't be amongst the current contenders, and at 300/1 or so, Bush and Daniels may be worth their money. I shortened Gingrich at 2/1, but I don't think I'll cash in until he is above 10/1, and I'm prepared to lay some more should he ever see 2/1 or below again (maybe after Florida?).

Doesn't really matter, Karla.  He gave more than you'll ever produce in your life.

Not in percentage terms he hasn't. He paid 14% on his $21 million whereas I paid almost 50% on my £85,500. Myself and his secretary pay more than he does in percentage terms.

And as for 'produce in your life' that would depend if you include inheritance tax in that. If you do then I will pay more than him and you put together in your sad little lives.

Well, if Gingrich ends up being the nominee, that's worth much more to me than the few £100 I would lose on my bets, as it gives democrats the best possible chance of retaining the presidency. That being said, I cannot see it happening.

Before SC, Gingrich was able to hit Romney on his tax returns, and Romney gave a very bad answer at the debate, making him look dishonest. Now that the returns are open, that's a weapon taken out of Gingrich's arsenal (he really cannot be seen attacking Romney for being rich). However, I think the "lobbyist" card, which Romney did not play before SC, will eventually stick, and Gingrich's "free speech" defense on Monday already looked awful.

Gingrich will probably win Florida, but then it's only caucuses until the end of February, where Paul and Santorum can count on their support, so they have no reason to drop out.

One interesting aspect is Virgina, it's a big, southern state, but Gingrich is not on the ballot (only Paul and Romney are). What looks like disaster for Gingrich could actually be to his advantage: He can tell his supporters to vote for Paul, and if he does it in a clever way handing Paul a huge victory, Gingrich might end up with some of Paul's support (either in the form of voters, or pledged delegates) later. Losing to Paul would be quite an embarrassment to Romney, so I expect him to fight hard...

Laying the four current contenders (there are really only two, not much money to be won on either Paul or Santorum) may not be a bad idea, but I think it is still risky to lay Romney. In my opinion, there are so few alternatives (Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels), that a couple of £ on them at 200/1 or higher could be a better bet. But I should probably declare my interest at this point :)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71925.html

Well of course I was exaggerating a little, but as an only child to relatively wealthy parents I will one day pay a large amount of inheritance tax.

The point remains that rich people pay 14% like Romney when they do pay and nothing when they shunt their wife off to Monaco. The rest of us pay significantly more and right-wingers like you don't have a thing to say about it. Bootlicker.

how immensely revealing.

she brags about inheritance tax she will ultimately pay.  you only pay inheritance tax if the money goes to you, not if you give it away to charity.  so she is unashamedly greedy there.

so essentially, Karla, wants a world where productive individuals employing people, earning money are taxed highly, whilst she has no qualms about receiving money by doing nothing productive, except waiting for daddy to die.

Ties in pretty nicely with her council gig I guess.

this is clearly all irrelevant

the field comprises of a number of corporate stooges, and one honourable man-ron paul, who cannot win

because of the controlled corporate media and dubious voting system

they could benefit from the presence of international observers from libya or iraq though

Not sure why this thread had to go off-topic, but I must say; I really like my earlier predictions (and the profit I've made by betting against Newt) :)

Given his "performance" last night, and the fact that there are no more debates until the vote, I don't even think he has a chance to win Florida anymore, and with that, no path whatsoever to winning the nomination. At the moment, I would actually price Santorum higher than Gingrich for becoming the nominee, but both are very long shots, at no more than 5%.

I also like the fact that I backed Romney when he was at 1.64 for the nomination. I've already cashed in at 1.15 though, not much upwards potential left, imho, although he is probably 90% certain to win.

Yet more twists and turns, with Santorum landing a hat-trick of contests before Romney stopped the rot over the weekend in Maine.

We have a little clarity now, in that the anti-Romney vote seems to have coalesced around Santorum.

The pattern seems to be that no one has any enthusiasm for Romney - he's losing most of the primaries - but every time he reaches a 'must-win' State, the combination of more money, a better organisation and a split conservative vote sees him home.

Maybe he will keep scraping by, but I have this nagging feeling that sooner or later he's going to stumble where it matters.

The next big litmus test is Michigan. Romney's dad was governor here, so he needs to win. Yet the betting has it a coin flip.

I'm having a little bit on Santorum here at 20's because if he wins in Michigan that price crashes, but if he loses narrowly it will change little if at all.

And like Mr Appletree above, I'm keeping all the Republican outsiders (Bush/Christie/Daniels/Rubio, etc) onside, because in such a volatile race, anything is possible.

Another story running around adding to the “weirdo factor” concerns Romney’s former dog, Seamus. Apparently the Romney family once took Seamus on a 12 hour car drive to Canada … strapped to the roof of their car. Dog lovers have expressed outrage at the arrangement, but Mitt insists that Seamus loved it: ““He scrambled up there every time we went on trips. He got it all by himself and enjoyed it.”

There is evidence to the contrary. One of Romney’s sons later said that poor Seamus soiled himself (presumably because they were speeding up to a low bridge) and smothered the windscreen in fecal matter. Mitt stopped the car and hosed it all off. Another son, in an unguarded moment, admitted that when they arrived in Ontario, Seamus ran away.

first i've heard about this story about romney's dog lol

romney saying it was the dog's idea 

I expect to see Santorum at > 10:1 for the nomination tomorrow morning

I sometimes I think I should do this for money :)

Is there any prospect of Jeb Bush entering?  I personally cannot see how the American bible belt can possibly be expected to elect a Mormon.

I don't think Bush is a very likely contender anymore: Those in the GOP electorate who still don't like Romney seem to want someone right of him, and Bush has said recently that he thinks the Republicans have already shifted too far this season. I don't think Bush could win states that easily if he actually competed, and I don't think he could win enough of the pledged delegates at a convention - not Ron Paul's or Rick Santorum's at least, and that's who he would need to win at a brokered convention in addition to Romney's. From that point of view, probably someone like Marco Rubio (catholic, right-wing) mike have a better shot.

That being said, after Romney survived Minnesota, and Gingrich still not dropping out (with his campaign / super-PAC now financed almost entirely by Sheldon Adelson), Romney looks likely to get through, imho. I expect Ron Paul's delegates would eventually vote for Romney at the convention, in return for some concessions on fiscal policy.

Just don't expect any of the current field on the ticket as the VP.