IOWA RACE VOID BETFAIR?

Suss - very suss indeed.

I backed Santorum to win this. Anyone know what the procedure is for requesting a payout or, at least, a refund of the stake

I also backed Rick, what happens now - what are the rules?

I can't see anything that would cater for this, but essentially my bet won, the question beside similar markets is " Which Republican candidate will win the named Presidential Primary?", as Santorum has now been ruled to have won this, I think betfair must pay out, what they do about those already paid for Romney is really us to them.

They'll have to reimburse you, simple as that. No different to backing a side to win a cup competition, they get beaten and the person who laid your bet getting the money, but then they get reinstated due to an inelligible player being involved.

Email them and ask for your money, not rocket science!

I have money on rick to, but its seems like i lost? so Rick won in the end?

I also backed rick, but all my bets are lost? anybody

Why would betfair be responsible?  The wrong guy was declared the winner, but he was declared the winner.

Betfair rules state ...

Markets will be settled on the official result of the relevant governing body regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result.

So my guess would be all bets stand, Rick backers lose.

But this is the official certified result. Betfair broke their rules by paying out on the provisional results before they had been certified.

As there are 8 missing precints and the Iowa Republican Party has not declared an official winner the market probably should be voided. It certainly shouldn't be settled as a Romney win.

Like I say, contact them and say you need paying out on the official result, simple.

You should take a look at politicalbetting.com where there is a debate going on this subject. William Hill and bet365 have already announced they are going to pay on Santorum too. There is no way the market should be made void, Santorum is the officially declared winner. Bookmakers were premature in settling when they did (on what was a provisional result).

Betfair is a different model though, being an exchange.  Hill has capital it can use for goodwill whereas betfair has much less.  This is a foreseable problem and I expect the bets will (legally) stand as settled.

The type of betting model or the resources the company has  should not influence the correct settlement of a market. In any event this is not the Grand National, it's a very minor event in betting terms. In theory betfair reserves the right to re-settle "winning" bets as losers but that would be PR disaster. Even more a disaster than not responding quickly to paying out Santo bets.

I just wrote to betfair, and they will investigate the case. If Rick Santorum won, then its unfair that i lose my money:(

Yeah, they told me that the matter will be investigated further on Monday and will let me know when a decision is reached.  Not as arrogant as usual, that's a very welcome change for them.

Poorest - that sounds a bit more encouraging let's hope they come to their senses on Monday!

philip glass 21 Jan 12 09:14

The type of betting model or the resources the company has  should not influence the correct settlement of a market.

Nor does it, but it influences the propensity to pay up for goodwill.

If they don't pay up, take them to court. People making things much more complicated than they actually are.

They must have emailed someone back already with their position?  Someone post it.  I queried a result a year or two ago and they gave a detailed argument based on the text.  I think they were right even though it cost me.

Thank you for your e-mail.

Our Market Operations team are still reviewing this market and are due to review it further on Monday. We will have further information regarding the market after Monday and will contact yourself.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries.

Don't you hate it when people needlessly make a sentence reflexive.  "Contact _you_" you dimwit.

Att. Poorest  - have you heard any news? Seems to be taking a long time. Don't know whether that's a good sign or not!

no haven't heard a word on it - i'll send a reminder tomorrow.

Whilst Betfair is happy with the settlement on this market, we have advised customers that if they still feel the settlement incorrect to please contact IBAS. Their site is http://www.ibas-uk.com/ and with regard to resolving issues they can be contacted direct at adjudication@ibas-uk.co.uk .
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries.

Good auld betfair, always willing to match the customer service offered by their competitors.

Betfair is not a bookmaker.
You get a better price on here and take your chances on things like this.
Do you honestly think all the people who won on this market are happy to give their money back?

I backed Santorum to win this. Anyone know what the procedure is for requesting a payout or, at least, a refund of the stake

Betfair have decided that there are no grounds to amend their original settlement.

If you think they are incorrect they say you should register a complaint here:

http://www.ibas-uk.com/

It's actually quite easy and takes no time, presumably betfair's take was that nobody would be bothered doing so.  It's difficult to know exactly what the outcome will be, but I think the worst case scenario for Santorum backers would be a voided bet.

Betfair is not a bookmaker.
You get a better price on here and take your chances on things like this.
Do you honestly think all the people who won on this market are happy to give their money back?

Of course they wouldn't be, however those same punters know that betfair made an understandable mistake in this instance, they paid out before the official result was announced, in doing so they violated their own rules. 

The most obvious solution would be for betfair to take the hit and payout to Santorum backers too as high street bookies have done (I wonder how much that cost them in total - £50, £60??)

Better prices have no bearing on betfair rules, so I'm not sure why you mention that?

Well I've registered the bet for adjudication and to be honest, I would be shocked if I don't get paid out.  I don't even stand to win much, but that's not really the point is it!!


It all comes down to the key points below:

In this particular instance betfair rules are unclear, however, beside the relevant market they posed the question:
"Which Republican candidate will win the named Presidential Primary?".

The press release issued by the Iowan Republican party and linked to below states the following:

"As Strawn noted during the January 4 announcement of unofficial caucus night vote totals, Iowa GOP rules provided for a 14-day period by which each of Iowa’s 99 counties were required to submit a Form E document from each of the caucus precincts within the county. The Form E document is the official record of the presidential preference vote in each of Iowa’s 1,774 precincts.  The deadline for county Republican officials to submit the Form E documents was 5 p.m. (CST) on Wednesday, January 18.  Following Wednesday’s deadline, Iowa GOP officials were able to certify results from 1,766 of the state’s 1,774 precincts."

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=682


Below is an excerpt from USA today clarifying the Iowa Republican party's final result.  This is available from many other media outlets as well:

"In order to clarify conflicting reports and to affirm the results released January 18 by the Republican Party of Iowa, Chairman Matthew Strawn and the State Central Committee declared Senator Rick Santorum the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucus."

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/01/rick-santorum-iowa-caucuses-official-winner/1

One difference between betfair and a bookmaker is that a bookmaker has a stake in the result, which morally obliges him to pay out, if the results are reversed. He can factor events like that into his calculations of the odds.

Betfair does not have a stake in who wins, the provision they collect on the total net winnings in a market are identical, regardless of the outcome (except differences in personal discount rates, but these are negligible).

Hence, betfair always acts in the best interest of customers when they make their decision. If they waited for official confirmation for every result, we would all have our money tied in bets longer. Imho, betfair states unequivocally that they make a decision to the best of their knowledge, and that these decisions are final. Nobody questioned the "preliminary" results at the time, even Santorum conceded defeat. What would have been the reaction from punters if betfair had said "wait 14 days until we pay out" - what would reactions be if they said that about every future political bet?

If betfair pays out on Santorum, I'd see that as a welcome gesture of goodwill, but I am not sure they have to.

"Hence, betfair always acts in the best interest of customers when they make their decision"

If you honestly believe that, there is no hope for you

My request was rejected, Romney is the winner, and i have lost:(

Well thats how it is.

My bet was on Santorum by the way.

Santorum won, which is the official result.

If you can't be bothered to do anything about it and stick up for yourself and get the money which you are entitled to, that's up to you.

"if you honestly believe that, there is no hope for you"

I honestly believe that, at least when it comes to how a market is settled, because I see no incentive for them to act otherwise. For betfair, it would actually make sense (in the short term; they would lose business in the long term) to keep markets "unsettled" for as long as possible, because it increases the amount of capital loaned to them interest-free.

But once they make a decision, they have no interest in how they settle a market. To first order, at least, one man's gain is another man's loss, and betfair is always winning. There are some second order effects on individual contracts (£2 pounds bet at 50:1 generates 5% of £100 in one case, and 5% of £2 in another), but there will always be contracts that go the other way, and largely compensate (and there were no such high odds for either Romney or Santorum).

If betfair did not state that they reserve the right to make the final decision, then by all means, go for it. But don't suspect they acted with malicious intent.

I have seen plenty of such examples, so I'll suspect what I like, thanks very much.

And you seem to be quite an expert for someone who has only been on the forum for a week!

As expected I won my case at IBAS and I have been paid in full on my bets with betfair on Santorum to win Iowa. So much for the nonsense arguments on the forum about different betting models etc. The fact is Santo was the official winner. In addition I think betfair had to payout given that other bookmakers had realised it had been a foolish move to pay on the temporary result and, to my knowledge, all of them subsequently paid out additionally on Santo. I suspect this will make all bookmakers a little more cautious of paying out quickly on these events when the result appears to be very close.

In any event my thanks go to betfair for getting it right in the end.

What happens if I had bets on both Romney and Santoum to win Iowa.And I was paid out on Romney.If I now ask to pay out on Santorum,will Betfair judge my bets on Romney as lost and take the winnings away?

Or will Betfair let me keep the money won on Romney and pay out the Santorum bets as normal bookies have done?

I was also paid out, but again, only because I lodged my claim with IBAS.  Did it really have to go that far?  Was it just another betfair ploy to minimise their losses as they know that not everyone will bother to register the claim?

Betfair's email said that they were paying out on Santorum simply as a goodwill gesture.  If I was you, I would register a claim with IBAS for the Santorum bet, there's no need to mention your other positions in the market, after all betfair are happy that they settled it correctly.  Normally, I'd advise you to leave it, if Romney gained you the bigger win over all, but because of betfair's attitude in this one, I say chance it.