your gut feeling about the outcome

Well hung with the voters returning to Labour, and lib dems making small gains

Tories to just full short. About 310 Seats.

All 3 parties under 250 seats

tories maj. David declared PM by day break

Tory majority of around 15-20, Labour totally destroyed south of Birmingham.

tory majority

my gut feeling is that the tories will do a bit better than expected on here

no overall majority

Labour wipe-out.

Tory 60 seat majority

Tories most seats - possibly tiny majority

small tory majority,god i hope im wrong

tories just

True gut feel - Labour vote holds up but tories surge late, small majority.

Tory, small majority.

:_| To be honest Tory majority. Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Tory majority having spoken to lots of non political people today they seem to be voting tory,for no other reason than a flick of a coin.If thats reflected everywhere will definitely be a majority in the teens.

I suspect that the Tories will fall just short of an overall majority.

I think that Brown will try and persuade Clegg to join him in a minority government with the promise of a PR referendum as bait.

I don't think Clegg will go for it though and from there it's anybody's guess.

Sadly, Tories with a workable majority, perhaps 335 seats.  Late undecideds have a habit of opposing the sitting Government and self-interest will also come into play.  I'm tempted to back overall majority to cushion the blow of this ghastly outcome but can't bring myself to do so.

A high turn out must be bad for Labour.

I can't see people queuing up to vote for 5 more years of Gordon.

A decent Labour majority helped by a large increase in the number of postal votes.

Hung like a horse.

Hope I'm wrong.

Con > Lab > LD both in popular vote and number of seats.
Con getting less than 300
Lab and LD forming a coalition.

If Lab get 30% of the vote then Brown almost certain to remain as PM, if Lab get 27% then they might possibly agree to supporting Clegg as PM.
Anything in between and the big problem for Labour is they have no way of ousting Brown within a few days and my guess is he will be too stubborn to resign when Labour are staying in government. I have no idea who acts as Labour leader if Brown does resign.

tories have been polling consistantly around 37%. its not enough and i think they'll fall short, say around 310 seats. Cameron will run a minority government that will survive this year but not next. another election in 2011. no idea what that will bring. too many variables.

Tories 350+
Lib Dem 65-

Really worried about tonight. Expect the Conservatives to benefit from larger than anticipated swings.

Even the idiots see sense and can't bring themselves to vote Labour,Tory majority imo.

Small Tory majority. I think there is still a stigma attached to admitting you will vote tory in opinion polls and I think a lot of Lib Dems will, when push comes to shove in the polling station, bottle it.

^ agree, richard.

Conservatives to fall just short of a majority.

I don't think enough people are convinced by Cameron.

I sense the Tories have done well. Maybe enough for a Maj.
Libs have done well too.
Labour poorly.

I've moved some cash over to Tory Maj, so if the buggers win, I'll have a bigger win.

Hoping I'm wrong but surely a Tory majority is the bet. Hope not, so no lose as I'm on.

My gut feeling is I really have no idea, so this must mean it will be a very even share of votes and seats.

Lib Dems to do slightly better than expected.
Labour to take a spanking.
Tories fail to win a majority.

Result - HUNG.

In terms of a bet, freds 7/4 on Libs plus 100 looks ok? I just think Labour will have a disaster.

Tory landslide.

No, snookerbacker.

It cannot be ruled out of course, but you can reasonably expect either Lab or Con (probably Con) to get at least 280. LD +100 would then mean LD getting at least 181.

Not a 7/4 shot.

Prices have stayed pretty static. Foreign exchange is pretty nervy with the pound trading down at 1.48, which could be an indication that the markets think it's hung. But let's face it we won't have a clue until the exit poll at about 10pm. Even then it may not be conclusive but the prices will start to move about then.

If the markets don't suspend that is.....

Tory maj 20 seats

small but healthy maj for the tories 12-20,though they could govern with about 317-320 seats.

lab to take a hard spanking(ooeer)

libs to gain seats but not as many as theyd hoped for.

just don't know...

could virtually be any one of the examples mentioned already.  Not sure I buy into the theory that if it's an outright tory win they wont last more than one term mind... going to be too easy to blame whatever more damage they make to the economy on what they were left.  In any case markets will like it if they get in, so short term boost there and then the olympics should be enough of a boost to kick start a recovery again if worst comes to worst. 

One new suggestion to the list: Boris to replace Cam if he doesn't get tories most seats!  Most popular PM since Churchill after next election.

Novice at this miranda, thanks. Just feel that a lot of traditional labour voters in the north are switching to the shiny happy people. I can see them doing better than expected is all and Labour having a complete nightmare. A big turnout is surely never good for a long administration? I've taken the punt anyway but hey ho

Biggerturnout than I expected could lead to Labour vote holding up better. Conservatives to get 300-310 seats, Labour 260 and Lib Dems 75

I've had my fill. Tory majority should be about 1.2. Not really what I think will happen but a statistical certainty from here. Cameron is our PM.

Conservatives to get 330-340 seats, Labour 150 and Lib Dems 155

Lots of regional variations, London especially. Tory narrow majority. Bad night for Labour with some notable scalps.

what do we reckon this time?

Tory government of some form unless Labour can increase their seats in England by at least 30+

Tories for most seats.

I'm shocked at the Tory majority price (18s).

My hunch is that Labour will get beaten up badly but can the prices be this wrong..??

Obviously labour, cannot win most seats that's an impossibility,labour will be looking to get within 20/25 seats and would consider that a good night with seats lost in Scotland,think tories need to win by 40 seats to consider it good result..

yep if the tories win by around 20 that will leave all options on the table really. something either side would leave it more clear cut

My gut feeling is, that we'll be doing this again, in October/November, as they are both very unconvincing and the seats will be very close between Cons and Labour, with Cons having around 10/15 seats more.

it's like the ultimate ugly baby contest. never can there have been an election with 3 such hopeless and out of touch leaders

They can put Klingons in number 10 for all I care.

I won't starve or go without anything I want or need.

Tory majority and another sad day for Brittain and democracy

The betting, has flip-flopped, throughout the day on the next pm, but it looks like ed miliband, is as likely to be leader as cameron and the movement on odds throughout the day, favour Red Ed

Miliband until Oct/Nov

I can't see how Labour can possibly be the biggest party if they get hammered in Scotland.

YouGov's poll however puts Labour & the Tories level on 276.

Bonkers?

yes, but the Cons will lose some seats to Labour in other parts of the country and the SNP could well, then form the alliance, with Red Ed and try and run, the whole country, as Miliband, will be a very weak leader and be pushed around by the SNP

Was going to have a punt in the MOST SEATS market but might have to hold fire for now.

Can't really see then getting any bigger unless labour wins a marginal then you might get some crazy prices whatever they look massive at current prices..

Well the first few results will go Labours way as they are all northern seats, which means their price will automatically shorten. However by how much, depends on what the swing is to Labour. The first 2 results will be announced around 11.00pm in both Sunderland constuencies and both will be Labour holds, what will determine the market even more is whether there has been a swing to the Reds or Blues, but I would suggest up north, the swing to Labour, will be larger than down south.

5 years ago Labour had 29% i think.....estimate 33% this time round could give Labour a few more seats........no majority expected.

If you look at top 100 marginals it looks like they will be lucky to even win 40/50 seats the swings would have to be 10% no chance of swings like that,be very surprised if pollsters aren't at least a couple of % out,they could be eating humble pie again..

I think Dave will edge it.
You don't get Labour governments elected during troubled times.

The electorate are more savvy than they're given credit for in that respect.

The 1.29 looks big but at close of polls could be a 1.05 if the polls showe tories infront,very likely..

yes, but the Cons will lose some seats to Labour in other parts of the country and the SNP could well, then form the alliance, with Red Ed and try and run, the whole country, as Miliband, will be a very weak leader and be pushed around by the SNP

That is utter tripe.

Its the utter truth, as that is what will happen

Ed to be PM

My word you seem almost to believe that stupid drivel.

Are you on something by any chance or are you just an imbecile?

Otherwise this country is fcked

I haven't listened to any of it today, that is my opinion and everyone will have a different one

If labour get with 25 seats they've had a very good result,cameron will be in trouble still looks unlikely to me.

UKIP should win plenty more votes than expected,

Does that mean the tories lose more seats..

looking athtis thread we should be laying the 1.07 NO MAJORITY

cryoftruth • May 7, 2015 8:31 PM BST
My word you seem almost to believe that stupid drivel.

Are you on something by any chance or are you just an imbecile?,,,,HE WILL HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO KEEP THEM HAPPY THAT MUCH IS STRUE, GVMENT COULD LAST MONTHS

Conservatives 292, UKIP 11, Lib Dems 30, Labour 260, SNP 46,etc,etc. Like all of us just a guess but I reckon UKIP are being enderestimated, Lib Dems local positions mayprotect many of their seats and Labour will suffer big time from UKIP and Greens while SNP may slip a little.

May 7, 2015 -- 9:07PM, pauliow wrote:

The only thing I'd like almost as much a Tory majority is UKIP to take a few seats off Labour

You must be knee deep in value bets treetop if you reckon UKIP are getting 11.

Dr Crippen -does 74 not count as a troubled time?

When's the flip-flop?

TheVis,

I meant economic troubled times, because Labour are perceived as incompetent in these matters.

Labour on the drift for most seats.

tories 1.2 most seats

tories 1.2 most seats

Exit polls, Cameron in from 2.06 to 1.3 while Miliband, drifts from 1.96 to 3.5. Now of course, not everyone, may have told the truth.

1.05 now

The exit polls were pretty accurate last election.

thegiggilo
     07 May 15 20:19   


The 1.29 looks big but at close of polls could be a 1.05 if the polls showe tories infront,very likely...

I remember an exit poll announced on radio 4 predicting a hung parliament some years ago. It was way out.
The Tories got in with a comfortable majority.