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badbeatbilly
09 Mar 12 23:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Feb 09
| Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: badbeatbilly's blog
3 bad beats on the trot equivalent odds of Lord Lucan winning  The  Blackpool derby on Shergar with Elvis second on ET explains why the poker set up on Betfair will always be an also ran.
Stick to Pokerstars,more options,big pots,more realistic, more people.
Betfair poker=2nd rate (Mickey Mouse).
XXXXXXXXXXXXX
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Report Bishy March 9, 2012 11:48 PM GMT
only 3?fk me...keep playing
Report Bishy March 9, 2012 11:51 PM GMT
come back when u hit 20 bad beats..
Report Bishy March 9, 2012 11:52 PM GMT
in a row
Report Bishy March 13, 2012 12:01 AM GMT
11 in a row with the best hand f u
Report 666_v March 13, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
In the last week my pocket kings must have met pocket aces about 40% of the time, been beat by Ax about 30%, other pocket pairs 15%.

So pocket kings won around 15% - that seems wrong to me. his is having pushed hard pre flop or gone all in.
Report Bruce Willis March 13, 2012 6:39 PM GMT
Just won 8 flips in a row with the very worst of it.
Damn, evened out the bad beats.
Site is fair

Overruled
Report Bishy March 15, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
Bingo **** site...u NEVER want the best hand when u put ur chips in...ask bruce...play like a donk...BEST POLICY ON BINGO BF
Report chipfire227 March 15, 2012 11:30 AM GMT
Cant remember the last time I had a losing month on BF. It's like taking candy from a baby playing STTS.

I'm amazed when people say they lose.
Report Bishy March 15, 2012 11:35 PM GMT
First sng of the night i slow play my 2 pair on the flop..get my chips in on the turn being an 80% fav...LOSE..Second and third sng of the night i get my chips in with AA v AJ and AK v AQ preflop..LOSE
Report Bishy March 15, 2012 11:36 PM GMT
sry the AA was against JJ.
Report chipfire227 March 16, 2012 11:54 AM GMT
I lost with AA vs 67 off, 2nd hand in a 50$ STT last night, so what, it happens. NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY, on this forum cares about your bad beats. Not one single person.

You plat STT's Bishy, what ROI does a decent, winning, STT player have these days ? 6%,7%, maybe even slightly less. That means even a winning player is losing more than 45% of the time. Thats right, the winning players lose a lot of the time. A hell of a lot of the time. And a lot of the time they lose with the best hand when the money goes in.

That is a fundamental FACT about poker.It's not a supposition, or hearsay, or a theory, its a cold hard fact, and you need to accept that and deal with it or alternatively accept that you do not have the basic intelligence to process this information.

If you accept this for what it is,a fact, then you can see that the margins between being a winning player and a losing player are actually quite small. We are playing a game where luck is a major factor after all. So if the margins between being a winner and a loser are small, being able to accept variance and NOT GO ON TILT can make a massive difference.

We all suffer from tilt to varying degrees, but if you cannot accept bad beats will happen A LOT OF THE TIME in STT's, and let them affect your decision making in subsequent games, it can cost you a couple of buy ins per session, and that can be the difference between a +3% ROI and a -3% ROI in the long term.

You have ZERO influence over what cards fall on the flop, turn, and river.The only thing you have control over is your own decision making process, and if your decision making is consistently good, and not affected whatsoever by your emotions but purely by mathematics, you will always win in the long term. Always.
Report charlyfarly March 16, 2012 12:07 PM GMT
Is THIS Chip posting OR IS it Sleepwalker.Wink

IS it CATCHING.
Report chipfire227 March 16, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
I've somewhat CHANGED my writing style and may continue TO USE THE new style on my next ilpp BLOG.
Report seaqe March 16, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
joke network. i hope new owners makes some changes to this corrupt network.
Report tony.blair March 18, 2012 5:53 PM GMT
3 bad beats on the trot? The cards don't have a memory, it's one bad beat at a time. AA could lose to 27os 50 times in a row and it's still the same odds every hand.
Report brumster74 March 18, 2012 11:16 PM GMT
As long as people continue to think a 60% chance of winning means you win 100% of the time, I will continue playing here. I personally love it when I get called with 4-8 off suit and lose against AA as it means I will win 9 times out of 10.
Report seaqe March 21, 2012 5:00 PM GMT
yea people like it cuz its CORRUPT network. wonder if they still signed the CHEATER like back in what 08 09?

why shouldnt this be corrupt to then. i hope some Authority will look into ongame. most corrupt network ever
and i bet sites are same.

they are checking themself and says all is fair when infact it isent. can i provide proof? No.
can they provide proof? No. they only got a site to show where it says all is fair and regulated. BULL ****.

get a grip
Report chipfire227 March 21, 2012 8:55 PM GMT
Simple solution, dont play here then. Nobody has a gun to your head forcing you to play.

I wouldn't continue playing on any network I thought was corrupt, you would have to be mad to do so.
Report phaedrus March 22, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
Actually they do provide evidence that the deal is fair in terms of independent assessment of their RNG. Rigtards provide bad beat anecdotes.
Report Jonny25 March 23, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
variance dude for every 100 showdowns you have you can expect to have 7 losses in a row at some point  possibly with the best hand every time in that run 

all site are the same they just have a different feel

variance evens out over the long term
Report sea27 March 24, 2012 12:26 PM GMT
7 losses? how about 50 losses? guess only site you cab really depend on is pokerstars. its the only site there have true independents to check up there site. well i got some tickets is why i play here.

but all lost because this site and network is corrupt. they choose who to win and who dosent.
i have not yet seen any real evidence that it should be fair. get a evidence like POKERSTARS and will believe.

you see even WINNING players says its really wierd. so there must be some about it. betfair dosent post in here because they cant prove a thing and are to scared to write anything becase they know its true.

peace out.
Report chipfire227 March 24, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
^^^ Keep donating. Happy
Report Apocolypse March 24, 2012 7:13 PM GMT
What cracks me up with all these tards is they think that getting aa they should be 100%
guaranteed to win the hand!!
Even if a hand is 1% to win it can still win lol!!
Starz has exactly the same beats you dumb fookers but anyway as chip said thanks for donating :)
Report Anora March 26, 2012 12:01 PM BST
Don't be disheart badbeatbilly  just play and win...
Report BananaBoat March 28, 2012 9:31 AM BST
AA V's KK.. ten times on a trot

The tenth time, mathematic probability of AA to win is 12.3%

stop coinflippin and try and see all 7 cards before you make your decision on shoving
Report garybet. March 28, 2012 12:44 PM BST
Thats where ive been going wrong,i always thought that AA was about 82% every time.
Report BananaBoat March 28, 2012 5:23 PM BST
1st time. AA is 82%

if you got the same hands again or in the same tourny for E.G. then you must factor in that the same flop, turn, river is NOT going to happen.

must go deeper in the maths here.

bad beats happen to all, we must grow a bigger chin in this game to understand it!
Report chipfire227 March 28, 2012 9:02 PM BST
Probability of losing 10 times in a row when 80/20 would be 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which I beleive is something like 1,048,576-1 or something equally ridiculous.

Anyone stating they got it in 80/20 favourite 50 times in a row and lost the lot, is either the unluckiest person alive or a liar. I know which of the two my money would be on.
Report garybet. March 28, 2012 9:22 PM BST
I see what you mean banana. I suppose its like flipping a coin ten times, if it comes up heads the first nine times then its 10% to be heads on the tenth time.
Did i do the maths right?
Report MUSER March 28, 2012 9:53 PM BST
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
Report MUSER March 28, 2012 9:53 PM BST
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
Report MUSER March 28, 2012 9:53 PM BST
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
Report chipfire227 March 28, 2012 11:49 PM BST
Pretty simple POP,while I may not be a great poker player, I'm better than the people I'm playing against.

I also have the basic intelligence to analyse hand histories and iron out flaws in my game. Of course that takes more time,discipline, and honesty than simply blaming the RNG.

Funnily enough the patient, disciplined, players seem to think the site's fine, wheras the tilt monkeys who struggle with basic maths, always claim its r1gg3d but can offer no evidence other than the fact they lose. Probably just coincidence.

I ran at 6% ROI on the old software over 10,000+ games, and have done almost exactly the same ROI wise since the switch.

That's not arrogance, it's just the reality of the situation. I've never, ever, claimed to be great, I've simply claimed to be a winning player, which I am.
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