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badbeatbilly
09 Mar 12 23:24
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Date Joined: 27 Feb 09
| Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: badbeatbilly's blog
3 bad beats on the trot equivalent odds of Lord Lucan winning  The  Blackpool derby on Shergar with Elvis second on ET explains why the poker set up on Betfair will always be an also ran.
Stick to Pokerstars,more options,big pots,more realistic, more people.
Betfair poker=2nd rate (Mickey Mouse).
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Replies: 33
By:
Bishy
When: 09 Mar 12 23:48
only 3?fk me...keep playing
By:
Bishy
When: 09 Mar 12 23:51
come back when u hit 20 bad beats..
By:
Bishy
When: 09 Mar 12 23:52
in a row
By:
Bishy
When: 13 Mar 12 01:01
11 in a row with the best hand f u
By:
666_v
When: 13 Mar 12 18:09
In the last week my pocket kings must have met pocket aces about 40% of the time, been beat by Ax about 30%, other pocket pairs 15%.

So pocket kings won around 15% - that seems wrong to me. his is having pushed hard pre flop or gone all in.
By:
Bruce Willis
When: 13 Mar 12 19:39
Just won 8 flips in a row with the very worst of it.
Damn, evened out the bad beats.
Site is fair

Overruled
By:
Bishy
When: 15 Mar 12 02:04
Bingo **** site...u NEVER want the best hand when u put ur chips in...ask bruce...play like a donk...BEST POLICY ON BINGO BF
By:
chipfire227
When: 15 Mar 12 12:30
Cant remember the last time I had a losing month on BF. It's like taking candy from a baby playing STTS.

I'm amazed when people say they lose.
By:
Bishy
When: 16 Mar 12 00:35
First sng of the night i slow play my 2 pair on the flop..get my chips in on the turn being an 80% fav...LOSE..Second and third sng of the night i get my chips in with AA v AJ and AK v AQ preflop..LOSE
By:
Bishy
When: 16 Mar 12 00:36
sry the AA was against JJ.
By:
chipfire227
When: 16 Mar 12 12:54
I lost with AA vs 67 off, 2nd hand in a 50$ STT last night, so what, it happens. NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY, on this forum cares about your bad beats. Not one single person.

You plat STT's Bishy, what ROI does a decent, winning, STT player have these days ? 6%,7%, maybe even slightly less. That means even a winning player is losing more than 45% of the time. Thats right, the winning players lose a lot of the time. A hell of a lot of the time. And a lot of the time they lose with the best hand when the money goes in.

That is a fundamental FACT about poker.It's not a supposition, or hearsay, or a theory, its a cold hard fact, and you need to accept that and deal with it or alternatively accept that you do not have the basic intelligence to process this information.

If you accept this for what it is,a fact, then you can see that the margins between being a winning player and a losing player are actually quite small. We are playing a game where luck is a major factor after all. So if the margins between being a winner and a loser are small, being able to accept variance and NOT GO ON TILT can make a massive difference.

We all suffer from tilt to varying degrees, but if you cannot accept bad beats will happen A LOT OF THE TIME in STT's, and let them affect your decision making in subsequent games, it can cost you a couple of buy ins per session, and that can be the difference between a +3% ROI and a -3% ROI in the long term.

You have ZERO influence over what cards fall on the flop, turn, and river.The only thing you have control over is your own decision making process, and if your decision making is consistently good, and not affected whatsoever by your emotions but purely by mathematics, you will always win in the long term. Always.
By:
charlyfarly
When: 16 Mar 12 13:07
Is THIS Chip posting OR IS it Sleepwalker.Wink

IS it CATCHING.
By:
chipfire227
When: 16 Mar 12 13:35
I've somewhat CHANGED my writing style and may continue TO USE THE new style on my next ilpp BLOG.
By:
seaqe
When: 16 Mar 12 15:28
joke network. i hope new owners makes some changes to this corrupt network.
By:
tony.blair
When: 18 Mar 12 18:53
3 bad beats on the trot? The cards don't have a memory, it's one bad beat at a time. AA could lose to 27os 50 times in a row and it's still the same odds every hand.
By:
brumster74
When: 19 Mar 12 00:16
As long as people continue to think a 60% chance of winning means you win 100% of the time, I will continue playing here. I personally love it when I get called with 4-8 off suit and lose against AA as it means I will win 9 times out of 10.
By:
seaqe
When: 21 Mar 12 18:00
yea people like it cuz its CORRUPT network. wonder if they still signed the CHEATER like back in what 08 09?

why shouldnt this be corrupt to then. i hope some Authority will look into ongame. most corrupt network ever
and i bet sites are same.

they are checking themself and says all is fair when infact it isent. can i provide proof? No.
can they provide proof? No. they only got a site to show where it says all is fair and regulated. BULL ****.

get a grip
By:
chipfire227
When: 21 Mar 12 21:55
Simple solution, dont play here then. Nobody has a gun to your head forcing you to play.

I wouldn't continue playing on any network I thought was corrupt, you would have to be mad to do so.
By:
phaedrus
When: 22 Mar 12 16:38
Actually they do provide evidence that the deal is fair in terms of independent assessment of their RNG. Rigtards provide bad beat anecdotes.
By:
Jonny25
When: 23 Mar 12 15:33
variance dude for every 100 showdowns you have you can expect to have 7 losses in a row at some point  possibly with the best hand every time in that run 

all site are the same they just have a different feel

variance evens out over the long term
By:
sea27
When: 24 Mar 12 13:26
7 losses? how about 50 losses? guess only site you cab really depend on is pokerstars. its the only site there have true independents to check up there site. well i got some tickets is why i play here.

but all lost because this site and network is corrupt. they choose who to win and who dosent.
i have not yet seen any real evidence that it should be fair. get a evidence like POKERSTARS and will believe.

you see even WINNING players says its really wierd. so there must be some about it. betfair dosent post in here because they cant prove a thing and are to scared to write anything becase they know its true.

peace out.
By:
chipfire227
When: 24 Mar 12 18:55
^^^ Keep donating. Happy
By:
Apocolypse
When: 24 Mar 12 20:13
What cracks me up with all these tards is they think that getting aa they should be 100%
guaranteed to win the hand!!
Even if a hand is 1% to win it can still win lol!!
Starz has exactly the same beats you dumb fookers but anyway as chip said thanks for donating :)
By:
Anora
When: 26 Mar 12 12:01
Don't be disheart badbeatbilly  just play and win...
By:
BananaBoat
When: 28 Mar 12 09:31
AA V's KK.. ten times on a trot

The tenth time, mathematic probability of AA to win is 12.3%

stop coinflippin and try and see all 7 cards before you make your decision on shoving
By:
garybet.
When: 28 Mar 12 12:44
Thats where ive been going wrong,i always thought that AA was about 82% every time.
By:
BananaBoat
When: 28 Mar 12 17:23
1st time. AA is 82%

if you got the same hands again or in the same tourny for E.G. then you must factor in that the same flop, turn, river is NOT going to happen.

must go deeper in the maths here.

bad beats happen to all, we must grow a bigger chin in this game to understand it!
By:
chipfire227
When: 28 Mar 12 21:02
Probability of losing 10 times in a row when 80/20 would be 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which I beleive is something like 1,048,576-1 or something equally ridiculous.

Anyone stating they got it in 80/20 favourite 50 times in a row and lost the lot, is either the unluckiest person alive or a liar. I know which of the two my money would be on.
By:
garybet.
When: 28 Mar 12 21:22
I see what you mean banana. I suppose its like flipping a coin ten times, if it comes up heads the first nine times then its 10% to be heads on the tenth time.
Did i do the maths right?
By:
MUSER
When: 28 Mar 12 21:53
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
By:
MUSER
When: 28 Mar 12 21:53
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
By:
MUSER
When: 28 Mar 12 21:53
Popped in while on the betting bit,, quit Betfair Poker about 2 months into its changeover, suddently turned from a moderately successful MTT player into a bingo player on the new set up.. Havent played here since and wont,, took me about 5 sites, found another one similar to the Old Betfair format, even looks the same, and must be said less fish , less donkeys and much less bad beats,, keep the faith guys,, deposit again soon,,,
By:
chipfire227
When: 28 Mar 12 23:49
Pretty simple POP,while I may not be a great poker player, I'm better than the people I'm playing against.

I also have the basic intelligence to analyse hand histories and iron out flaws in my game. Of course that takes more time,discipline, and honesty than simply blaming the RNG.

Funnily enough the patient, disciplined, players seem to think the site's fine, wheras the tilt monkeys who struggle with basic maths, always claim its r1gg3d but can offer no evidence other than the fact they lose. Probably just coincidence.

I ran at 6% ROI on the old software over 10,000+ games, and have done almost exactly the same ROI wise since the switch.

That's not arrogance, it's just the reality of the situation. I've never, ever, claimed to be great, I've simply claimed to be a winning player, which I am.
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