Bigger sample sizes and I'm really having issues trying to understand your analysis.
And going back to your original post why the overbet with that flop and also when you made it are you really expecting a fold from someone flopping a boat?

And what was the buy in for this particular tournament?

chipfire when someone with a better ability rating than me posts in this thread, then i will listen to them.

and this offer still stands, if as you say no sites or networks are juiced, then its a license for you to print money.

manxy
18 Jan 12 17:15
Joined:
09 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 3,139 | Blogger: manxy's blog
would either of you like to play 20 pounds a point with me.

for every 130 community cards per table, which you can choose on carbon [merge network],
i will pay you 20 ponds for every ace under 10 in the sequence of 130 community cards,
you how ever only have to pay me 16 pounds for ever ace over 10 in the 130 community
card sequence, even with a 20 percent advantage, how much would either of you be prepared to lose before you admitted they are ace heavy boards, and about as random as the days of the week.

Jesus Wept.

You have posted hand histories with your user name on them so we can all see your stats, and we can see your play from the evidence you yourself have provided. You could PM me punterz stats for all I care, it changes nothing.

Your play is dreadful, your spelling is awful, you can't manage even basic maths, and you seem to expect people who have seen hundreds of thousands of hands of online poker, to take your word for it that everything is juiced, on the basis of two dozen micro stakes tournies.

All because you played badly in  2 dollar rebuy.

I'm sorry, but I'm not convinced. I've seen hundreds of flops today, every last one of them as dull as ditchwater. Then again I'm capable of folding king ten suited, and ace nine.

i know i was bored and reading this forum last night so i downloaded the bf poker client, then entered the next tourney that was not a turbo, it was eleven oclock.

i think i tested the cheap sit n goes, 3 or 4 of them months ago playing a different strategy each time, i think it was this account, maybe not, if not i have only played that one tourney, the poker clien is now uninstalled.


i dont really criticise someone who can turn 10BBs plus per 100 hands profit live turning to online, paying what is essentially a tax by accepting that the juice / equity levelling deals, that  mean more losses, however multi-tabling and skimming just 2 or 3 BBs per 100 hands is more proitable still than single table live.

just not my bag, i play because i love it, it saddens me to see how these networks have bastardised what is a great game.

NickFiickTheOriginal
19 Jan 12 01:15
Joined:
28 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 671 | Blogger: NickFiickTheOriginal's blog
Love the OPR stats - not that I would post them.
Looks like the $100 is running out quickly and best stick to live. Maybe good to start alternative card options. As you appear to be into card-counting try black jack?


listen ballbag, and listen good.

If any of these sites deals were completely random, then they would offer insurance
with a guaranteed odds skim just like any casino game.
it would really increase their profit margins, obviously theres more to be made sodomising the game the way they do.



they do not offer it because the cards in certain circumstances  are to predictable.
the ace heavy boards at merge being one example where you can watch the juice live, no hand histories needed.
even with a 20 percent skim off the correct odds, they would still get brutilised.

people like you who defend the industry as a whole entity, quite frankly just make me laugh out loud.

you see you can not convince anyone the deals are completely random industr wide, when all they have to do is go to carbon poker, open any low stakes table,at some random time, on some random day, log down the first 130 community cards, and close the table, then repeat, and repeat, and if your eyes aint already bleeding enough repeat again, 2 of our home  game lads had very similar results a me.

out of the 100 times over a month that i did it, only 27 times did a 130 card sequence have 10 or less aces in it, but ts worse than that, when you deduct the 12 sequences where the expected average of 10 aces happened you are left with 73 over ace heavy boards agianst 15 under ace boards,

hh mean nothing, all matters is how a site is dealing now, right now, not months or years ago.


combined with my other 2 simple tests , flushed flops occurring on average every 8 flops instead of one in 20, and the turn card pairing the flop test, that was also virtually double the  expected rate.


they are simple tests that anyone should do before ever considering depositing, if a site s prepared t adulterate the deal one way,then where they will draw the line is anyones guess.

so to sum up

over a month i opened 100 low takes tables
i logged to spreadsheet the fist 130 community cards and closed the table, then the next time telly was boring i rolled over and opened another table, and did the same again.

the results
73 sequences 11 aces or more
12 sequences expected norm 10 aces
15 sequencceesss  9  or  less aces

average over  all 1300 cards, ace every 8.03 cards.

average for flopped flushes 1 in 8 flops instead of the expected 1 in 20.
turn card pairing the flop occurred every 3.78 turn cards seen.

now off you go again and try convincing me that the only 3 simple tests i decided to run on the site were all so far askew at the same time is simply chance, over to you,of you go now.

error

average for flopped flushes 1 in 8 flops instead of the expected 1 in 20.


fixed

average for flushed flops 1 in 8 flops instead of the expected 1 in 20.

yes i could learn the rig of carbon easily, it is after all unashamedly blatant.
that way i could use an unfair advantage over someone who is naive enough to believe their advertising, its probably what you are doing right now.

what you suggest makes me feel dirty, its akin to theft, no different to insider trading, and just about sums up the online poker industry and most online players mind set, anything goes when it comes to money eh.

A question though. To what extent, if any, do you think the boards you are looking at ought to be light on aces?

Obviously you are only examining occasions where there is a flop. Where the hand is concluded pre-flop there is nothing to look at. Is it possible that where aces are dealt as hole cards betting is likely to be aggressive pre-flop and so the hand is likely to be concluded pre-flop. Had there been a flop it would have been light on aces since they are in the hole cards but you never get to count this in your stats. Where betting is light pre-flop there is a little less chance of Aces being dealt as hole cards and consequently more chance that there will be a board and that aces will appear on it.

Is there a selection bias here?

waffle waffle pre flop yada yada.

quite simple open table, log down one row of 130 columns, close table, roll over and watch telly, repeat when ever bored for a month until 100 rows of columns are comeplete, filter out all the hits from the 13,000 logged community cards = 1600 plus aces divide into 13,000 = ace every 8.03 community cards seen.


the highest  was 33 aces per 130 card sequence, and the lowest 5.
the aces were heavier by 38.23 percent over 13k random samples.

your a proper nugget you, anyone playing decent stakes would change name every few weeks, ban their scope etc data being seen etc, who in their right mind would want other decnt players knowing anything about them.

then theres nuggets like you, 3800 sit n goes for around 55c a game average return, boosted by a sharp 6k spike,at 2500 games whilst still being just a few hundred dollars up on the 2.5k sngs, got lucky in a tourney i presume.

you play 20 dollar sngs for an average 55 cent profit per table, stack the years upon years worth of profit together, along with your tourney winnings, including your 6k onetime touch and then try and come over as being some kind of poker authority.

your scope shows you a few hundred dollars in profit for the first 2.5k games, and 2.2k up for 3800 == 55 cents a game, its a joke no matter whatever way you spin it

Sorry Doobs.

indeed you would get the same figures i got if YOU did go and try carbon.

you are convinced bf is straight, right i believe you, so i will re-install the client and do the same tests over a month, i will put batches of 10 row results here along with the table I.D.s and hand number start, and finish.

i think from tests i have already done here that aces will show 1000 times in 1300 random community cards give or take 5 percent.

FFS save your hand histories and download Pokertracker or HEM2 both of which have free trials. I have 150,000 hands saved and I checked my all in stats that match closely to what I should expect in HEM2. It's human nature to see patterns but sometimes we see only what we want to see. Come back to me when you've 150,000 hands saved with your 100% definite proof or go troll elsewhere.

Manxy, to be clear, I'm not saying you are making up your results.

I'm saying that using your method of looking at hands where the players choose to see a flop has an effect on the number of aces you should expect to see. If your plan is to simply repeat the experiment I'm not clear what that would achieve and it seems like a lot of effort to go to.

I know people are saying 'LOL sample size' but I don't think that's the only issue. I have no idea what proportion of aces you should expect to see. My argument is that it's possible the very fact that a flop is dealt makes that flop more likely to be ace heavy. But how much more I have no idea. I just doubt that 1/13 board cards ought to be an ace.

No point trying to convince losers like "chipliar" and baldydoobs" manxy. What you must understand about these low lifes is that they are compulsive gamblers. It's a bit like telling an alcohlic that the drink is doing bad things to your body and will kill you, they will deny this and also deny that they have a drink problem. Ask chipfire how much money he has lost on the horses, sports betting ETC? and why he has to have a loss limit on everything? Fact is something that has to be programmed by a human cannot be random, and in the future at some point it will be proved that online poker is not honest.

manxy     19 Jan 12 13:24 
yes i could learn the rig of carbon easily, it is after all unashamedly blatant.
that way i could use an unfair advantage over someone who is naive enough to believe their advertising, its probably what you are doing right now.

what you suggest makes me feel dirty, its akin to theft, no different to insider trading, and just about sums up the online poker industry and most online players mind set, anything goes when it comes to money eh.


what a load of bolux , i suppose when playing live and a rich /drunk fish down on your table ,you get up and refuse to play as it wouldent be right taking his money
its a long time since ive seen as much garbage spouted on one thread . stinks of a live player assuming internet is easy and because he cant cut the mustard needs to blame someone instead of looking at his own play

Oh Cheezer, you cut me so deep man.

Turn the caps lock off mate, it makes you appear angry about something.