PNicholls

It is fairly obvious that we had a moderate weekend with only one winner from thirty one. We have several horses coughing and not running to their form.

As you may have read elsewhere I've had to cancel my Cheltenham media day this week due to this. In these circumstances we do not feel it is appropriate to invite the media on Wednesday.

I'm sure everyone agrees my horses and owners must come first at this stage.

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Fair play to sponsors Betfair for pumping more money into this meeting to keep this race as the UK's richest handicap hurdle with prize money of £152,500; last season the winner was racing for just over £34,000 and we didn't have a runner. But we have three this year, and all have chances.

Here are my thoughts on Zarkandar...

If only life was as simple as some people are making out and my Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar is thrown in off a mark of "just 151" here, given the way the form of that Cheltenham race has worked out. Obviously, I hope that he is but I don't think it is as straightforward as some people are speculating. And it is interesting to see that while Timeform have him as their top-rated horse in the race, it is only by 1lb.

Yes, the Triumph form has been franked time and time again this season - even the tenth horse home, Smad Place, won a handicap by seven lengths off 144 on his reappearance at Ascot - and so I have to be hopeful. And I am very hopeful. But those winners have surely all improved - I can certainly tell you that Brampour has - and Zarkandar's workmanlike manner at home (it was the same last season, so don't be worried on that score) means that, hand on heart, I cannot say the same of him for sure.

But we know this horse comes alive on the track, the breathing operation he had in the summer appears to have done its job in that he doesn't make a noise now, and he is an unbeaten horse with scope for plenty of improvement. And he schooled really well on the grass with Celestial Halo on Tuesday. And if you go back and watch his Triumph win, you have to be really impressed by the turn of foot he showed to put the race to bed very quickly.

And Trudy, who has ridden him out every day for the past 18 months or so, reckons he is a much stronger horse this year. And he certainly looked ok when doing a racecourse gallop with Poquelin three weeks ago.

But is he a value bet at 3-1? Everyone knows that I am not a betting man, so I am probably not the best person to ask.

But those odds don't particularly tempt me, especially as I don't have him 100pc for this race. Yes, of course, he is fit enough. You don't run horses in these races half-baked, that's asking for trouble. But he isn't at what I would call a "Festival peak".

One thing is for sure; if he doesn't win here, then I would not immediately dismiss him for the Champion; after all, Flakey Dove was beaten off a mark of 149 in this race before winning the 1994 Champion Hurdle a month later.

And, remember too, that Long Run was beaten off a mark of 158 in the Paddy Power before going on to win the King George and Gold Cup.

He has to run well for us to still consider the Champion, and you clearly have to be running well off a mark of 151 with the likes of Hurricane Fly waiting around the corner, but an honourable defeat wouldn't be the end of the world.

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12:10 Newbury

Hold Fast

This horse is very tricky to train as he has intermittent lameness and foot problems - but he doesn't lack in talent either judged on his seven length defeat of All For Free at Sandown last time. Although we expected him to come on for his reappearance run here and he was well-backed at Sandown, the manner of his victory certainly came as a bit of a shock to us.

Admittedly, the form of that race hasn't worked out at all, but the emphatic nature of his win told us that we have to step him up in class and see where he takes us. I'm not saying that he has Grade 1 pretentions at the Cheltenham Festival at this stage - not by a long chalk - but that was the same Sandown race that Master Minded won before winning the Champion Chase in 2008. And St Pirran also won that race in 2004 before taking the Grand Annual that season, albeit squeezing in a fall in between. So wouldn't it be great if he could make it a memorable hat-trick.

There is no Cue Card in opposition but clearly he will need to improve to give the likes of Sprinter Sacre and French Opera a run for their money. But sometimes these unheralded, and hard-to-train, horses can continue to surprise you. Let's hope he does.

12:40 Newbury

Tidal Bay

I had half an idea that Tidal Bay could be a Grand National horse this season but his run in the Argento last time told me that he simply doesn't jump well enough for Aintree. But that race also told me that I still have a high class horse on my hands. Don't get me wrong, I'm not blinkered to his faults - certainly not as much as those who backed him at odds as short as 4-11 in running on Betfair at Cheltenham, anyway - and he clearly doesn't deliver as much as he promises in his races. But hopefully that situation will improve the more Ruby, and we, get to know the horse. Fact is, this horse is a Cheltenham Festival winner whose latest two-and-three-quarter length second to Midnight Chase puts him in with a definite chance of chasing home Long Run. The Gold Cup is the plan after this.

What A Friend

If Tidal Bay has been called some names in the past, then so has What A Friend. But give me a dual Grade 1 winner with a bit of an attitude every day of the week, thanks very much. Yes, his head second to Noland in this race last season wasn't too pretty to watch but he was carrying a 10lb penalty that day and isn't here. And furthermore the application of blinkers saw him just a short head behind Kauto Star, when an 11 length fourth (obviously off levels) to Long Run in the Gold Cup. He receives 10lb from Long Run today, which makes things interesting. Especially as he comes here really fresh and well after returning sick from Wetherby in October. If he shows some of Denman's tenacity today to go along with his undoubted talent, then who knows? Stranger things have happened and Timeform only have him 6lb behind on their ratings. The more it dries out the better for him. It will be the Gold Cup for him after this.

13:15 Newbury

Zarkandar - see separate blog

Brampour

Brampour finished 11 lengths behind Zarkandar in the Triumph Hurdle last season, yet is asked to give him 11lb here - and that underlines what progress he has made in this campaign. A narrow success at Ascot on his reappearance was followed up with an impressive and clear-cut win in the Greatwood, and then he lost nothing in defeat when third to Grandouet and Overturn in the International, where Harry couldn't claim his usual 7lb. Then we ran him too soon in the Ladbroke just a week later, and he didn't fire. But he is in great form at home and comes here en route to a crack at the Champion Hurdle. But he is clearly up against it here, racing off a mark of 162 and giving upwards of 11lb to some potentially well-handicapped horses. I could easily see him running into a place at big odds though; Harry takes 7lb off.

Empire Levant

He's taken a while to grow into his big frame and, to be truthful, still has some filling out to do before he is the finished article. But I think this horse could go well at a price here. We knew we had a well-handicapped horse on our hands at the start of the season and he duly dotted up on his reappearance over this course and distance, beating Tony Star and Right Stuff by 29 lengths and 50 lengths respectively. Both placed horses ran well on their next starts (the runner-up finished a close second in a handicap hurdle, and third was a winner on the Flat).

That gave us a decision to make and we decided to let him take his chance in the Gerry Fielden at this course just 48 hours later. Although he was a beaten favourite, he certainly was not disgraced in finishing a six length second to Rock On Ruby, and he had subsequent Ascot winner Raya Star four-and-a-half lengths behind in third. He is 12lb higher in the handicap today but this is a horse who has continued to please me (though he had a slight setback around Christmas) and I have had this race in mind for him for a while. Perhaps he won't prove to be as battle-hardened as he needs to be to win a prize of this nature, and chasing will be where he excels next season, but I don't think a mark of 140 flatters him. Has been working really well.

14:25 Newbury

Deireadh Re

This maiden pointer has done nothing but improve this season and stayed on dourly to get the better of Shoreacres over 2m6f at Wincanton last time, getting up on the line to win by a short head. He has paid for that victory with another 5lb rise in the weights but a stronger-run race over this longer trip (he had earlier won over 3m at Cheltenham) will suit. Let's hope his improvement curve remains on the up. Harry takes 7lb off.

14:55 Newbury

I also run three in this race but don't read anything into the jockey bookings, as Ruby rides Cedre Bleu because he won on him last time, and similarly Daryl won on Pacha Du Polder at Warwick.

Picture This

I think it is fair to say that my face will be something of a picture if he wins this, because we are basically running him here to get him qualified for the Kim Muir. To be qualified for Cheltenham, you have to have run a novice three times over fences or hurdles by next Sunday, so I have to get a run into him, and there are precious few options. On form he has a mountain to climb to finish in the same parish as some of these, and he wasn't overly impressive when winning a match at Folkestone on his reappearance at odds of 1-6. But he wasn't straight there and his earlier form (he was off for a long while with a leg before Folkestone) shows he is far better than that. But surely not good enough for this company.

Cedre Bleu

Whatever he did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus and he showed a really likeable attitude on his chasing debut over 2m1f here, battling back to beat Bellvano, who won at Kelso on Wednesday. We were going to run him in this rescheduled race before the meeting was abandoned last week, and then at Exeter on Sunday before that was called off. So his preparation hasn't been ideal. But he has improved since Newbury, fitness and experience wise, and this race will tell us where we stand with a view to a possible run at Cheltenham. Although he will have to improve a good deal on the bare form of his win, I think the step up to 2m4f will be a help.

Pacha Du Polder

Had useful form in France and made a pleasing debut for me when beating Eradicate by a nose over 2m in a match at Sandown in November. The handicapper was very impressed by that and put him on a ridiculously high mark of 150, which was even more mystifying after he flopped at Ascot next time. But he won, as he was entitled to, when stepped down in class and up in trip at Warwick last time, even though he was a massive drifter in the market there by all accounts. This will tell us if he has Grade 1 aspirations at Cheltenham next month, though he clearly has to improve a good deal to trouble the likes of Champion Court and For Non Stop. But he only has seven races under his belt, so the potential is there.

15:30 Newbury

Vrai Vert

There are a few in this bumper that have already run to a very smart level of form, possibly chief among them Village Vic, Hold Court and Gevrey Chambertin, but I quite like my horse, too. Everyone knows that I don't rev my bumper horses up at home, so it was pleasing to see Vrai Vert win so well at Hereford in December, though he did have the experience of finishing third in a maiden point beforehand. He obviously has to improve to mix it in this loftier company but he is a useful prospect on what he showed us first time out. And he is bred to be smart, too, coming from a jumping family that includes Captain Chris.

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14:10

Martys Mission

Had some fair form in novice chases in 2009/10, and was giving the winner 7lb when beaten 7 lengths by Punchestowns at Newbury in November 2009. But he has been off the track for over a year since beaten a long way off a mark off just 116 at Plumpton in January 2011. He has since joined me from Richard Rowe. This horse has had plenty of problems with a leg since then, but he has been fired and we have given him a full MOT, which also included a breathing operation. So hopefully you will see a better horse today, but he has had his problems, I can assure you. If he doesn't run well today, then we will look to hunter chasing with him. James Cowley takes 7lb off.

15:15

Aldertune

Is undoubtedly a tricky character but he appears to run his best races when we dispense with the blinkers and cheekpieces, such as his fourth in the Southern National and his second to Zarrafakt over 3m2f at Wincanton last time. On official ratings, he has a fair chance in this and his jockey Jody Sole performed with credit when second on Blu Teen in this race last season before that pair landed the Grand Military at this course the following month. Conditions will suit, too.

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14:00

Like Minded

Meets some fair sorts on his chasing debut - Quentin Collonges sets the standard - but won a maiden point as far ago as February 2008, so hopefully he will be able to shine in this sphere. I'll be honest and say I would like him to find more off the bridle but there was certainly nothing wrong with his two-and-a-half length third to Knight Pass off a mark of 129 at Kempton on Boxing Day last time and Kells Belle, who was eight lengths behind him that day, won a listed race next time up. Is related to winning chasers, and hopefully chasing will see him fulfil his undoubted talent. Ryan takes 3lb off.

14:35

Balding Banker

This race is proof positive that, after the cold spell, every novice hurdle will take plenty of winning from now until Cheltenham. Balding Banker showed smart bumper form when winning at Newbury last season and had a breathing operation in the summer after disappointing badly at the same course next time. He ran a very good race when a three-and-a-quarter length second to Molotof first time up at Wincanton, and is 10lb better off with that admittedly improving rival here. However, he again ran below par at Cheltenham in December, finding little when asked. He has had a break since then and I hope he can show his true worth here today; if he does, then he clearly has a chance in a hot little race.

15:05

Carlicue

We had the Beginners' Chase as well as this race as an option for the fencing debut of Carlicue, but we went down the handicap route because I think a mark of 118 is fair. He won his point by 20 lengths and then showed great promise in winning his hurdle over 2m6f at Ffos Las. But it is fair to say that he has disappointed badly on both occasions since, being pulled up when well-backed for a handicap hurdle at Wincanton last season and when tailed off when favourite at Chepstow on his reappearance. I would ignore that Chepstow run and, although the fact that he has bled in the past is an obvious worry, I would like to think that he could be competitive here as chasing could well be the making of him.

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It is the first time in years that I haven't attended the Grand National Weights Lunch, which takes place at the Savoy in London today.

But I am simply too busy at the moment, with the big Newbury and Ascot meetings this week. And today was the first time in three weeks that we could school on the grass, and we took advantage by sending out three lots. It was really good to see a couple of Triumph Hurdle winners in Celestial Halo and Zarkandar schooling together.

I only have two horses in the National this year, but I am happy enough with the weights they have been allotted.

I am actually thrilled with Niche Market's racing weight of 10st 5lb; it's a lovely racing weight and I am obviously pleased to see that Timeform have him as their third top-rated horse in the race behind Weird Al and Prince de Beauchene.

Niche Market ran a good second in the Becher on ground far too soft last time and good ground in mid-April will be much more to his liking.

"The Niche", as his owner Graham Regan calls him, is really well at the moment and you will see him next in a 3m2f veterans race at Newbury on March 3.

If Ruby doesn't ride him - and he has a decision to make with the horse getting such a nice weight - then Harry Skelton will probably step in.

I still think Neptune Collonges is probably too high in the handicap but I can't complain too much. He has always struck me as the ideal horse for this race and has run two good races at Ascot and Sandown on his last two starts.

He runs at Haydock on Saturday, where he will hopefully advertise his National claims. I haven't thought about an Aintree jockey for him yet, but I will sit down with John Hales at the appropriate time.

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Losing Newbury on Saturday was a big blow - but at least it has been softened by the news that the whole meeting has been transferred to Friday, live on Channel 4.

So fair play to all concerned in making this happen.

And it is especially pleasing to see that the Betfair Hurdle retains its original prize money of £152,500 and will still be run as Europe's richest handicap hurdle, despite the race being run on a Friday.

Last year it was run for a fraction of that, with the winner only getting just over £34,000.

As long as they are all fit and well, then all the horses I was going to run at Newbury will turn out on Friday - and that includes Zarkandar.

I would not be overly-concerned if a lot of my horses had to go straight to Cheltenham - I can get them fresh, fit and well at home - but it is a different story for horses that haven't yet run this season. So Zarkandar will run.

This weather is a pain and, while it clearly isn't ideal, none of my horses have missed any work.

But someone asked me the other day why don't English trainers travel more to Ireland when our meetings are being frozen off.

Well, firstly, cost is an issue.

Obviously that is not a concern when you are talking about your better horses in the big races. But it is when you factor in that you don't want these Cheltenham possibles travelling to Ireland so close to the Festival, as some travel badly, and it can take others a while to get over it. We saw that when we took Celestial Halo over for the Irish Champion Hurdle two years ago.

I was actually toying with the idea of sending The Minack for the Hennessy but decided we would go to Ascot with him next week, on a course where he won so well last time.

So while Ireland is a short term option, it doesn't necessarily make the most sense in the long term picture.

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I will not be a happy man if the cold weather sticks around claims the "Betfair Super Saturday" meeting at Newbury on February 11.

Because I have a strong team heading for the meeting - as no doubt you will be reading about in the papers on Tuesday, as I host a press day here for Newbury racecourse and Betfair here this morning.

But you may as well read about my Newbury team here first, so here goes.

At this stage, ante-post favourite Zarkandar (Daryl Jacob) and Brampour (Harry Derham) are my two definite runners in the Betfair Hurdle, Europe's richest handicap hurdle. And Empire Levant could also join them.

What a Friend was a sick horse after Wetherby but he is in really good form at the moment and is my number one hope in the Betfair Denman Chase. He carried a 10lb penalty when a head second to Noland in the race last season, but doesn't this time around. Hopefully, this will be a good stepping stone to the Gold Cup, in which he finished a fine fourth last season.

Paul Barber was obviously keen to have a runner in the Betfair Denman Chase, so we will enter Aiteen Thirtythree. But he will have to up his game after disappointing us again at Doncaster last week; let's hope a small field, conditions race at his favoured Newbury is more to his liking. I have my suspicions that he may have a breathing problem after stopping so quickly on his last two starts, but I can't do anything about it at this stage of the season, so I will run him in a tongue tie and cross noseband next time.

I run Hold Fast in the Betfair Super Saturday Chase (I have been told I can't call it the Game Spirit any more), fitness permitting. This horse is very tricky to train as he has intermittent lameness and foot problems. But he is 100pc at the moment and he certainly deserves to take his chance after his impressive Sandown handicap win, albeit one off just 137. That was the same race that Master Minded won (off 145) before winning this in 2008 and then the Champion Chase.

Grands Crus could turn up for the 3m novice chase on the card, and I have two possible rivals for him in Join Together and Silviniaco Conti, though that pair have plenty of other options in the coming fortnight. I give Edgardo Sol his County Hurdle prep in the novice hurdle on the card, and aim to run a nice horse of Simon Munir's, easy Hereford winner Vrai Vert, in the bumper.

Fingers crossed, they get the chance to run.

As Denman unfortunately can't make it to Newbury to parade before the race named in his honour - we will give an update on him next week - I gather Betfair have lined up a super-sub in Prince Harry, at the course to represent the Walking With The Wounded charity, of which he is patron.

It is a great charity, and some of the lads will be here on Monday to do a photo-shoot with Denman, and advertise such a worthwhile cause. It's a brilliant idea to give our incredibly brave servicemen and the charity some exposure, not only on Monday, but also on live terrestrial TV on Channel 4 next Saturday.

It is always sad when the likes of Denman and Master Minded pick up injuries, or indeed any horse, but let's not lose perspective here.

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It was a big day for the stable at Taunton - and thankfully the big guns delivered.

All eyes were on Dildar on his hurdling debut, and I was delighted with the win. I had made no secret of the fact that he had been pleasing me at home - impressing as much in his homework as all my highly-rated, top juveniles - so some people may have been expecting a lot more from him than a narrow win.

But the track is where they have to deliver, and I was thrilled with the victory.

Yes, the level of form wouldn't be anywhere near that of Pearl Swan (officially rated 146), Ranjaan and Hinterland (141), but you only have to look at how the first two improved from their debuts to see the potential.

He jumped a bit novice-y in sticky ground but he showed his Flat speed to take the race and the experience will stand him in great stead for the bigger tasks ahead. I know everyone will want to know who I rate as my number one juvenile hope at the moment but they are all different types, and Dildar goes for the Adonis next. We will see what we have there.

Pearl Swan, Hinterland and Ranjaan will all have entries in the Supreme and the Fred Winter, as well as the Triumph, to keep my options open.

And I will have also an ex-French horse called Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter; he will go straight to that race.

And to finish off on the juvenile front, I run a horse called Dodging Bullets at Taunton on February 9. He, too, is a nice prospect.

You couldn't fail to be impressed by Sanctuaire's chasing debut. Yes, he got his own way in front, but they couldn't live with him and he hosed in. Sanctuaire will obviously get an entry in the Arkle and I have yet to speak at length to Jared, but please hold your bets on him for that race.

He could well miss Cheltenham, and instead go to Sandown in March and then on to Aintree, where 2m and a flat track would really play to his strengths.

Ted Spread dotted up in a first time tongue tie today but I wouldn't go overboard about the form; with all due respect to the opposition, it wasn't the strongest of races. That said, he had Group form on the Flat, has an entry in the Supreme and will be entered in all the handicaps at the Festival.

So, all in all, a very satisfactory day that has us looking forward with great hope.

Finally, you may have seen my earlier tweet, but I have entered two for the Grand National, Neptune Collonges and Niche Market.

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For those of you who like to back ante-post, I will run you through my entries in the novice chases at the Festival, and the National Hunt Chase.

I have five entries in the Arkle, for which Al Ferof, Timeform's leading novice chaser at any distance this season, is obviously my number one hope after his excellent third at Ascot last Saturday. He goes straight to the Festival.

Thursday's Warwick winner Pacha Du Polder is a very unlikely runner and wants a trip. He is also entered in the Jewson, but it could be that we give Cheltenham a swerve with him this year.

Sanctuaire probably makes his chasing debut at either Taunton or Ludlow next week. I was toying with running Escort'men in the Lightning at Doncaster on Saturday but decided against it; I refuse to believe this talented hurdler is as bad over fences as he has shown so far, but handicap hurdles are always an option at the Festival. But he will have his next run in a chase, maybe at Wincanton next Thursday.

That leaves Cristal Bonus to complete my Arkle quintet; he was a classy hurdler who holds entries in the Jewson and RSA as well. He delighted me when winning over 2m4f at Chepstow on his chasing debut and goes for the Scilly Isles at Sandown a week on Saturday. His current target is the Jewson, though.

I also have five in the Jewson, though I have already discussed Al Ferof, Cristal Bonus and Pacha Du Polder. Newbury winner Cedre Bleu goes to Exeter in a fortnight. He could give Cheltenham a miss too, but if he ran well at Exeter and the ground came up soft at Cheltenham, who knows? The remaining other possible is Silviniaco Conti.

I have three entries in the RSA and many will think that Silviniaco Conti is my number one hope at this stage after his excellent second to Grands Crus in the Feltham. But hold your bets on this horse.

We will not be taking on the winner again if he goes down the novice route, and it could be that we wait until Aintree. I think a flat track will suit him better than Cheltenham.

But the race is definitely the plan for Join Together. He was very impressive at Cheltenham last time and has three options for his next outing; Newbury on Betfair Super Saturday, the Reynoldstown or maybe Fontwell on National Spirit Day. Star De Mohaison won at Fontwell before winning the RSA. In fact, those three races are possibles for Silviniaco Conti, too.

I have two entries in the four-miler and Sir Alex Ferguson part owns both. Picture This got a leg last season and was only half fit when winning a match at Folkestone first time up; he is better than that.

But if he runs at the Festival, it could be in a handicap. But the National Hunt Chase is something that I have had in mind for Harry The Viking all season, and he showed all the attributes that you need for this marathon test when battling to win a 3m2f handicap at Doncaster last time. He is a true stayer.

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