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Paul Nicholls - exclusively on Betfair
13:30, JCB Triumph Hurdle
Dodging Bullets
Showed smart form on the Flat in Ireland (beating Hisaabaat on his final start at Sligo of a mark of 89) and delighted me when second to Grumeti at Kempton on his hurdling debut last month. The winner probably won with a fair bit in hand and was giving us 7lb, but I was more than happy with that introductory run. He will be a lot sharper for it. I was originally going to keep him back for Aintree but he has really pleased me at home since so we take our chance here.
My juveniles tend to come on a good deal for their first run and I hope that is the case again here, as he will need to improve a fair deal to be winning this. But he is a horse I rate, and his slick jumping will stand him in good stead. Has done plenty of schooling on grass since Kempton.

Pearl Swan
Decent maiden on the Flat in France and I hadn't had him too long before he made his debut for at Taunton, and I was a bit worried that he may have been a gallop short there. But I needn't have worried as he bolted in there from a fair sort. I then decided to throw him in the deep end here in a Grade 2 just nine days later and he didn't let me down, giving Grumeti 3lb and a short head beating. He was obviously demoted to second there for causing interference but that didn't detract from the fact that it was a high class performance and I have to be hopeful here.
He reminds me a bit of Zarkandar in that he has a powerful burst of speed; let's hope he can get the job done, too. But this is a very competitive Triumph as always with plenty of unexposed horses in the line-up.

14:05, Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Edgardo Sol
Is racing off a 15lb higher mark than when winning by 6 lengths over this course and distance in November, and you would have to assume there are better handicapped horses in this race. And he showed he was probably in the grip of the handicapper now when fifth at Taunton last time, after which he was dropped 1lb. Conditions will suit and he should run his race, but an each way chance at best. Harry takes 7lb off.

Ted Spread
Won the Chester Vase on the Flat and was very impressive when winning off a mark of 120 at Taunton. Was raised 15lb after that win, but we went into the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday thinking he could still be competitive, though I was worried about the soft ground. And I was right to be, as he travelled really well before finding precious little when let down. Today's better ground will suit and I can see him coming to 2 out on the bridle. What he does from there is anyone's guess, especially backing up after just six days, but I think he could bounce back to form on better ground.
One word of warning though - I think he needs a breathing operation, so we will look at that after this run.

14:40, Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Rocky Creek
Point to point winner who disappointed us slightly when beaten on good ground at Exeter first time up but he showed his true colours when beating Gullinbursti at Doncaster last time, and the runner-up franked the form when unlucky not to win a Newbury handicap subsequently. Is a horse of real potential and I can see him going close here, but the drying ground is a concern for this big horse.

15:30, Cheltenham Gold Cup
Kauto Star
I have kept this to myself until now but a couple of weekends ago my gut feeling is that he wouldn't make it to the race. When Clifford told me that Wednesday evening that he thought Kauto was only 50-50 to get to the Gold Cup, my heart sank. But I was even lower that Sunday as I simply wasn't getting the right signals from the horse; don't get me wrong, he was fine but I just didn't think he was himself. Perhaps it was just nerves on my part.
But ever since then he has done nothing but improve and the racecourse gallop and the subsequent schooling session has certainly put a spring back into the step of the horse - and every one else in the yard, too. So we still go into the Gold Cup hopeful rather than confident. Some people will ask why aren't you confident? Well, first off, any setback, however small, so close to the Festival has to be a big negative. And I suspect we may be meeting a peak-form Long Run here today.
Don't get me wrong though, that is not defeatist talk. We are going into the race with the form horse this season - Kauto is arguably in the form of his life after his Betfair Chase and King George wins - and the best horse in many of our lifetimes. And if he could win a third Gold Cup, and regain it for the second time, then it would be my proudest achievement as a trainer.
Just getting to the race is a testament to the horse's courage and strength of character. So let's just hope he runs his race, and I honestly don't care if he wins or loses as long as he performs to his best and comes back safe. And I mean that. A win would be the ultimate bonus.
But I can tell you he really is sparkling now and did a great piece of work with Pearl Swan on Thursday morning. Looking at him, you cannot believe he is a 12yo.

What A Friend
Ran the race of his life when fourth in this race last year, just a short head behind Kauto Star. Wasn't right when coming back from Wetherby in October and he took a while to come back to himself but he delighted me when third to Long Run and Burton Port in the Betfair Denman Chase. I was very pleased with that run - although he goes well fresh, I expect him to strip fitter here today -and it wouldn't surprise me were he to run a similar race to last year and finish in the places. We all know his style of racing can look a bit ungainly and he isn't the most straightforward but he is a Grade 1 horse and not a bad bet win and place at around the 34.0 mark.

16:00, Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
Just Amazing
Disappointed when pulled up in this race last year but goes well when fresh, so we deliberately kept him for this race, his last start being a win at Ascot last April. Has the form to go well.

Rowdy Rampage
Is owned by "The Rowdy Boys", a group of locals, and he landed a few good bets for them when winning at Worcester in the summer. He is another who we have kept fresh for this but he has his work cut on the book, as his Worcester win came off a mark of just 109.

16:40, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Empire Levant
Dotted up at Newbury first time before bumping into a certain Rock On Ruby at the same course 48 hours later, and Tuesday showed there was no disgrace in finishing a 6 length second to that horse, even receiving 24lb. I thought he would run better than he did in the Betfair Hurdle last time but, if he is back to the form of his Newbury runs, then don't rule him out. His potential may not be fulfilled until he goes chasing but I retain a lot of faith in this horse. We try him over a longer trip today.

Like Minded
His chasing debut at Fakenham last month didn't go entirely to plan, so we switch him back to hurdles here. And there was nothing wrong with his earlier third to Knight Pass at Kempton (though he was raised a harsh 6lb for that run). Doesn't always find as much as expected but I can see him going well at a price.

17:15, Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
Toubab
Very smart hurdler on his day and bounced back from a bad fall at Haydock when winning at Sandown last time, at a time when some of our horses were under a cloud. This strong traveller has the raw talent to make his presence felt off a mark of 143, has course form, and I can see him going well.

For more Festival betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/
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