PNicholls

Here are my views on our quartet of runners in the Gold Cup today:

Denman: Rain would certainly be a great help to Denman's chances. He is a horse the public have really taken to because he is a trier, a fighter and a bruiser; the Marvin Hagler to Kauto Star's Sugar Ray Leonard. Has had his problems since his finest hour - a 7 length defeat of Kauto in this race in 2008 - but has continued to turn in some devastatingly good performances since, notably when winning the 2009 Hennessy. And you would have thought he had won that race for the third time this season to judge from the reception he got coming in after finishing third to Diamond Harry at Newbury. Although he was eventually beaten over 15 lengths there, he was giving lumps of weight away to the youngsters Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and only weakened from 2 out. Ratings-wise, that wasn't far off his best but we got the impression he didn't finish his race off as we would have liked, so he had a breathing operation. Whether or not that ekes out some improvement we won't know until the race - if Imperial Commander is in the same form as when beating him 7 lengths last season, it may need to - but he comes into this race at his best physically,

Kauto Star: If significant rain does come that wouldn't be in Kauto Star's favour but I can tell you he looks in magnificent order and was bucking and squealing the stables down earlier this wee. It was obviously ridiculously premature for people to call for his retirement after his King George run; the facts of the matter are that he would have been a decent second to Long Run had he not made the stopping mistake, and Riverside Theatre went on to win the Betfair Ascot Chase. And after Kempton he bled slightly and had a minor infection, so there were excuses for what was a below par performance anyway, So we will see where he stand today but don't forget he has won this race twice, beat the Champion Chaser Sizing Europe on his reappearance at Down Royal and only four runs ago won the King George by a distance. Not retirement material in my eyes. But I just want to see him do himself justice and, re-united with Ruby, I hope he does just that.

Neptune Collonges: Missed last season with a bit of leg and this season certainly didn't start ideally, being brought down in the Hennessy and then never getting competitive or into a racing rhythm when starting slowly at Cheltenham next time. But got the lead in the Argento Chase last time and never looked back, beating Tidal Bay 1 ¼ lengths. That form puts him in the mix here and don't forget that this is a horse who is a multiple Grade 1 winner who has finished third and fourth in Gold Cups. He is probably not the 44.0 chance I see he is on Betfair but clearly this is a very tough ask. The more rain the better.

What A Friend: Is a horse we had really high hopes for this season after a 2009-10 campaign that saw him finish second in the Hennessy and go on to record Grade 1 wins in the Lexus and at Aintree. But he has disappointed me in his two runs this season, firstly when finding the tacky ground against him in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November and then when beaten a head by Noland in the Aon, looking very awkward. I am convinced the talent is in him to run a big race here, so let's hope the bigger field, hopefully better ground, and blinkers see him show it. But the jury is obviously very much out on him at the moment. But, remember I won the 1999 Gold Cup with See More Business, who was wearing blinkers for the first time.

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