I've written a piece of software, that is online and available at www.pluckier.co.uk This software evaluates each horse and it's previous runs against todays going and weights and distance and provides a rational list of the horses rated on previous form. The user can then use sliders to change the significance of these three variables (weights, distance and going). The point is to be able to model any result which can be determined based on the horses form. If , for example, a trainer has done a great job and a horses is much further forward than previous runs then the software can't possibly determine this additional information and therefore can't predict such a winner.
Registration is FREE via http://www.pluckier.co.uk, today I mentioned this software on the forum and I was shot down like a lead balloon. Ego's were big and the label of SPAMMER was sent my way. I am not bragging nor do i want anyone to use my software but it's funny how people were suspicious and aggressive towards it. I press fire and then slider to a good selection for a good chance of a return.
The great thing about this software is that it is emotionless and has no ego, perfect.
Is there such a thing as an easy winner? Occasionally we know when one will win (like Frankel the other day) but usually this has a direct consequence on the price you can get. This price then needs to be weighted against the risk of losing your stake, in Frankel there was no risk but at 4/6 you need more winners than losers to make profits.
So is there another way?
YES.
Place bets can prove to be a quality method of earning money. Why? Well it's easier to pick a horse that will be in the shake up than to pick a horse that will win. Winning can be on the nod and therefore completely unpredictable but placed horses can be determined even if they run poorly. The example today was Ebraam in the first race at Warwick... came 2nd.