Pinza

Seeing [b]Farraaj[/b] in the early entries for the race made this my probable bet if it was going to run. Looking at Kremlin stable data I'm not so sure. The only pattern [b]colt/gelding[/b] winner previous to Farraaj on AW was[b] Laaheb[/b] and that never won at same level again on AW. Faraaj won as 3yo in Listed company (at Lingfield) - but would be the first male horse going back to 1994 to repeat an AW win in similar grade. It's the sort of stat that may fall eventually but still a risk. Past race trends indicate that you need a horse that won in it's previous two races, but since Hatton won in 2008 I've extended this to three runs - and that took in [b]Premio Loco[/b] last year. You used to be able to rely on a good run in February Trial race but [b]Junoob[/b] let that down...