Pieros

A beautiful but at the same time competitive card at Cheltenham and Doncaster. Here are my views and analysis on the main races:

1:15 Cheltenham - Sizing Tennessee 3/1 William Hill
I’m a very big fan of Sizing Tennessee that has really improved his jumping lately after a couple of costly mistakes: he was challenging Black Corton (a subsequent Grade 1 winner at Kempton) at this venue last October travelling much better than his rival before hitting the fence hard.  Made amends when beating Duel At Dawn by six lengths in December and ran a mighty race in January when finishing only a neck second to classy Yanworth in Grade 2 event over this course and distance. Back at handicap level, Tizzard’s charge loves it at Cheltenham and with a clear round of jumping he must have every chance to be heavily involved.

1:50 Cheltenham - Shantou Flyer 12/1 Ladbrokes (5 places) Bet Victor and Frodon 8/1 Paddy Power WH both each way (Coral Betfred Bolesports paying 5 places too)
Here we will get a very strong pace with many front runners and keen types; they could set it up from an experienced good jumper travelling behind the pace. Shantou Flyer was entered in hot Ascot’s handicap last Saturday but declared non runner: trainer Richard Hobson has targeted instead this race after the very positive performance 26 days ago over this course and distance when second to today’s favourite Ballyhill but re-opposing him on better terms. Already a Grade 3 course and distance winner in 2017 at the same handicap mark, the 8 year-old gelding will get the very useful help of James Bowen claiming 3lbs.
Another course and distance winner last season in the Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase is Frodon, a model of consistency for Nicholls’ yard that ran some very nice races in defeat. Second to Gold Cup favourite Might Bite at Sandown, third to Top Notch and a close second to Gold Present last time out at both times at Ascot. The form is really good and this looks an easier task; he’ll carry top weight which is never positive in competitive handicaps but he’ll be helped by Bryony Frost’s claim.

2:25 Cheltenham -  The Last Samuri 5/1 each way Paddy Power ****
This race has been won twice by legendary Many Clouds: last year heading Thistlecrack on the line and in 2015 when went on winning the Grand National. When I think about that race The Last Samuri suits the profile: he was already second at the Aintree festival and he’s always campaigned with that final target. On the other hand, he has never run before at Cheltenham but he is a sound jumper and stays forever. Bailey’s consistent veteran is getting weight from the whole field and that does not happen too often when your handicap mark is 159. The new Cheltenham course has an emphasis on stamina and will clearly suit him.

3:00 Cheltenham – Santini 9/2 Betfair Sportbook
I was really impressed by former point-to-point winner Santini when winning at his debut under rules at Newbury. A drifter that day but he pulled 4 ½ lengths clear of the subsequent double winner Chef Des Obeaux, a convincing Kempton scorer last week-end. This 150k purchase knew his job already and could be something special if improving on that performance. Nicky Henderson took him off last Saturday at Ascot when ground deteriorated into very testing and he’s taking his chance here: it’s clearly a good test for the future as this race looks competitive.

3:15 Doncaster – Wakanda 8/1 each way SkyBet Betfred Coral **** all paying 5 places
A beautiful finish last time out at Wetherby in Grade 3 event between 3 horses in top form: improving Get On The Yager put his head in front beating Wakanda and Delusionofgrandeur. Selection was giving plenty of weight to his rivals but rallied to lead again towards finish and was headed close home. A clear sign that Smith’s stayer is back in top form and looks well handicapped at current mark of 145 considering that he won at 151 and was placed at 149.

3.35 Cheltenham - Beer Goggles landed a huge surprise when scoring at Newbury last time out with a majestic front ride by champion jockey Richard Johnson being able to dictate his own pace. Today it’ll be tougher carrying a penalty and at a totally different track: in fact the 7-year-old gelding won only at quick galloping  tracks but has an improving profile. Finian's Oscar returns to hurdles after not showing enough improvement over fences, he has strong form over smaller obstacles and he has a clear chance if can revert. Agrapart has  never won over 3miles, Wholestone beat Colin's Sister last time out over 2m4f (carries a 3lbs penalty) but was well beaten by the latter over this distance at Wetherby: the mare is very interesting at current 12/1 odds back up in distance but I’ve noticed that her trainer, Fergal O’Brien, is still looking for his first win in 2018. Thomas Campbell was consistent in handicaps but disappointing in Graded contests, The Worlds End is another interesting runner with his Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle run: he was cruising behind the leaders when fell *2 out sure be involved in the finish. Tom George’s charge has a couple of runs with a much more improved effort last time out at Ascot and should be fitter today. At huge 33/1 odds I wouldn’t discount the Irish challenger Ex Patriot, former 85 rated on the flat for trainer Ger Lyons that performed really well in last year Triumph Hurdle when 4th of 15. Ellmarie Holden’s charge is only 5 and has shown improvement stepping up in trip winning at Limerick and running a mighty race when second behind Killultagh Vic at Punchestown last time out. He’ll go up again in distance today and I’m really curious to see if he can improve again, decent outsider.

3:50 Doncaster - Bigmartre 3/1 general
Bigmartre was already useful over hurdles that was seen as a bonus as he always looked a chaser in the making. Won a couple of competitive Novices events at Ludlow and Newbury that worked out really well considering runner up Cyrname won a Grade 2 subsequently at Kempton. Trainer Whittington thinks a lot about his lightly raced 7-year-old as he gave him festival entries for Arkle and JLT: he is only runner on today’s card for trainer/jockey and must win this to confirm his fancied entries.
4:10 Cheltenham – Dino’s Velvet 14/1 each way Bet365 and WH
As you know I’ve been following Dino Velvet lately because I think that there is a good handicap to be won with him and although travelling extremely well he looked as if he did not stay the distance over 2m4f trips at Newbury and Kempton. It’s fair to say those two races were some competitive handicaps and much more difficult than today’s contest. Alan King gives plenty of time to his horses but he’s running Dino after only two weeks and the drop in trip seems logic. The handicapper put him down 2lbs in the ratings; hopefully they‘ll go a good clip up front as the 5-year-old does not possess speed but should stay well over 2 miles on a testing track as Cheltenham.

Come onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn SuperSaturday bring it onnnnnn

A lot of non runners but still a very decent Saturday’s card with  Un De Sceaux travelling to Ascot for the Clarence House Chase. I ve read online THAT many punters are keen to take him on with Brain Power but I m not completely sure IF it is a good move: the latter according to my notes performs best on good ground and Mullins’ champion loves cut in the ground. Anyway, at these odds I’ll pass and focus on races with + 8 runners (3 places or more) plus a couple of picks in smaller fields including  the Champion Hurdle Trial Hurdle at Haydock. The handicapper has been tough to last time winners this month and there is maybe some value elsewhere so I’ll try to oppose the favourites with horses suited by conditions, pace and distance.

14:25 Ascot - Oxwich Bay 15/2 Coral each way Bet365
Oxwich Bay went in my tracker last season after a couple of decent performances in defeat : he relished the step up in trip last time at Ffos Las when winning over THE same distance of today’s race on heavy going. Evan Williams’ gelding looks the improving type : he went only 3lbs for his victory and Mitchell Bastyan will claim 5, so actually HE can run off a better mark today.

15:00 Ascot Shantou Flyer 7/1 each way ****
This is a class 2 event and Shantou Flyer has been competing at Grade/Listed level so far as his handicap mark went sky high after a Grade 3 win at Cheltenham around this time of the year last season. Richard Hobson’s charge SHOWED his true colours last time out going close in competitive Grade 3 event and looks down in class. Mitchell Bastyan (claiming 5lbs) is confirmed on board and 7/1 looks a decent each way proposition at the early exchanges.

15:15 Haydock The Dutchman 12/1 Bet365- Highland Lodge 20/1 both each way 4-5 places
This is probably the race bookies will compete with each other offering an extra place(Sky Bet and Paddy Power 5 places), they love to lay these open field contests. I respect the favourites, there might be a real top horse but I’ll pass on them as it’ll be very hard to win again under a penalty on heavy ground. First of all I was interested in Carole's Destrier that put up this great performance last season in the Hennessy finishing really fast and almost beating on the line Native River but I m not sure if he is effective on deep ground and has not delivered since that race... could be well treated at current mark.
The Dutchman started his last season winning a Novice chase at Wetherby over too short a trip according to his trainer Sandy Thomson and ran several fair races in defeat subsequently. He moved to Tizzard’s stable having a very positive debut at this course in the Stayers Grade 3 on heavy ground finding only Sam Spinner too good. He did not enjoy the Cheltenham hill subsequently and he’s back here 2lb better off.
The other one that looks interesting at juicy odds is Highland Lodge: he runs only 3-4 times per year and often delivers a good performance when mud flies over staying distances. He did really well last time out at Aintree when third to top rated Blaklion and The Last Samuri : he’s had a nice break since and looks an each way proposition.

16:15 Haydock  Bruichladdich 8/1 each way Bet365 Betfred
Very tricky contest with a few lightly raced sorts open to improvement. Bruichladdich was having his first seasonal run last time out at Ayr after a long break. Unfancied and drifting in the market he ran a race full of promise behind subsequent winner Too Many Chiefs running out of puff just in the 100yards. Jardine’s charge was entitled to need it but he relished the big time step up in trip very well. He’d have done without the 5lbs raise in the ratings but he’s carrying only 10-6 and looks open to improvement.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second favourite can turn over short price fav

14:15 Taunton –Irving 9/4 Bet365
Monbeg Legend will be probably a short price favourite but he has done all his winning on fast ground and it’s a big question mark if he can handle the conditions at seasonal reappearance. Irving is the class horse in this contest and he’s stepping up in trip for the first time: he finished off really well last time out behind  Buveur D'air in Newcastle Grade 1 contest giving the impression he would  stay the extra mileage. This course winner loves cut in the ground and drops in handicap company at the workable mark of 149: positive jockey booking in Bryony Frost claiming an extra 5lbs.

14:40 Haydock - Ch'tibello 7/4 Bet365 William Hill
The New One has won the last 3 editions of this contest and even though not getting any younger he’s still alive and kicking at 10 years of age. He might be vulnerable today at odds-on giving 6lbs to the field and I think Ch'tibello could be a big danger after the very promising first season run at Cheltenham : he made an eye-catching headway before 2 out but was short of room at the stands rail before last losing momentum. Skelton’s charge finished only 1 length and a ¼ behind The New One but I m sure he’ll come on plenty with that run under his belt. He won over this course and distance last season second time out on heavy ground beating short odds-on My Tent Or Yours and finished a close second to Yanworth in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle with smart Sceau Royal back in third. An improving profile for a relatively lightly raced horse, more to come, hopefully today.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The favourites:
When I was studying these types of Novices contests this afternoon,  odds were unknown yet, so I just picked my fancies waiting curiously for the early prices. These three runners are favourites, up to you guys if you like to bet them

12:40 Ascot- Nayati 10/11
I think the well supported Nayati was a very impressive winner on his UK debut on testing ground. He won easily beating Kapdad that run really well in defeat subsequently at Kempton against classy Redicean. Trainer King is the one to follow in January and his charge can defy a penalty against some unexposed sorts that might need the experience.

15:25 Brianstorm 11/10
Brianstorm has improved with every run and especially when talking soft ground: second to the more experienced Arthington at Leicester, he did extremely well to get third in competitive Newbury Maiden. The form of that race has taken some boost with some of those running well subsequently and trainer Greatrex may have found an easier race to his  charge finally off the mark.

16:05 Santini 4/5
I was really impressed by former point-to-point winner Santini when winning at his debut under rules at Newbury. A drifter that day but he pulled 4 ½ lengths clear of the subsequent double winner Chef Des Obeaux, a convincing Kempton scorer last week-end. This 150k purchase knew his job already and could be something special if improving on that performance. Nicky Henderson likes to take his best horses to Ascot, it’s clearly a good test for the future as racing is competitive.

1.00 Market Rasen - It’s Obvious 9/1 each way William Hill Bet365
I m following for some time It's Obvious, sold for 85 k at the Aintree’s auctions after finishing runner up to Fitzhenry in an Irish point-to-point. Pipe’s charge ran with credit in maiden/novices contests and he is now having his handicap debut; he is stepping up big time in trip and that should suit as he stayed on one pace over inadequate 2 miles distance. Many front runners in this contest could set things up for those coming from further back and selection has been ridden with restrain so far; tongue-tie on for the first time has paid dividends for this trainer in the last 5 years.

1.20 Newbury – Doitforthevillage 7/2 Ladbrokes William Hill Coral
Doitforthevillage was improving during last season starting at a handicap mark of 103 and currently rated 140 over fences after his win in class 2 event at Cheltenham. Today he’s reverting to hurdles where the 9 year-old gelding is rated only 113. I don’t know if he can be competitive enough over the smaller obstacles but 27lbs difference looks key: already a winner on soft ground Henderson’s charge is worth a bet.

1.30 Market Rasen – Morianour 4/1 Ladbrokes Paddy Power Coral
Morianour was travelling like a dream 9 days ago at Fontwell chasing home the very well handicapped (our pick) De Rasher Counter: the pair were clear from Minella On Line and other horses rated around 125. Useful Mitchell Bastyan claimer is booked for his only ride on the card. If the race doesn’t come too soon Evan Williams’ charge will win today, he’s due to go up 5lbs in the ratings next Sunday, so he looks well in at current mark of 113.

3.00 Newbury – Indy Five 7/2 exchanges 3/1 Skey Bet Paddy Power and Killala Quai 12/1 Each way Bet365 Betfred
I was on Indy Five last twice: the first time he was having his seasonal reappearance over hurdles but he clearly needed the run after one and a half year lay off. He made an impressive debut over the larger obstacles subsequently making it virtually all over 3 miles at Taunton. He has been hammered by the handicapper with a 12lbs raise at the weights but this horse has some very hot form in the book as he beat the 147 rated Midnight Tour over hurdles and won his point-to-point in Ireland having the better of Big River, now rated 144 for trainer Lucinda Russell. He could be still well in at the current mark of 122 with Noel Fehily booked for the job: David Dennis’ yard is still going well and I ll stick to “the Indy” another time.

At double figure odds Killala Quay takes a big drop in class having ran in some much more competitive contests than this one. Longsdon’s charge displayed an encouraging performance last time out at Doncaster against horses rated between 150 and 128 in first time blinkers. Richard Johnson’s booking suggests this race might have been the plan for the 11 year-old gelding.

3.10 Market Rasen – Farm The Rock 9/1 each way Bet365 Ladbrokes Coral
Strong form in the book for Farm The Rock that improved stepping up to 2m4f when second at Wincanton: the third horse Compadre won subsequently and few horses in that race did well next time out. Katy Price’s charge was unlucky to fall last twice as both times he was travelling strongly behind the leaders poised to challenge: he’s a point winner and although still a maiden under rules he looks a chaser in the making, with a clear round he d be involved.

3.30 Newbury – Kapatana 6/5 exchanges
I was waiting for Kupatana for some time, probably she needed more time than others as she makes only today her official debut under rules. Front runner in sole Irish point-to-point last March on ground with cut: that race has produced plenty of subsequent winners and she moved to Henderson’s yard for 120k. She is Nico De Bonville’s pick of trainer’s pair and looks an interesting runner for top yard.

4.05 Newbury - Baddesley Knight 5/1 each way BetVictor Bet365
Some interesting types on pedigree but the best form in the book is from Baddesley Knight that performed really well finishing so close to subsequent winners Court Liability and Solomon Grey. Tom Cannon’s charge was extremely green too in that occasion, so you can expect him to improve with that run under his belt. That race was on good ground but his sire Doyen was by Sadler's Wells and they both did not mind soft conditions.

Precautionary inspection 8am at Ayr, focus on Hereford: Brewin'upastorm makes his debut under rules in the bumper. The Skelton’s bought him for 250k but he is now with Olly Murphy, he is a short price favourite and will be interesting to see how he’ll perform over the short 2m trip. Another that looks interesting is Odello, a bumper winner last season that has not confirmed his talent so far over hurdles: he is entering the handicap route at the mark of 94 in a very weak race and Richard Johnson is booked for the job. It is all guessing work with poor racing during the week and the odds are not appealing.

12:20 Marettimo 11/1 Bet365 BetVictor 19.0 Exchanges 20win/80place
Marettimo has already caught the eye on a few occasions this season and I remember mentioning him after a decent run at Ludlow last November. Turner’s charge was unlucky to fall subsequently at Fontwell when still leading and going well and he wasn’t a disgrace when 5th to Style De Garde at Newbury not being knocked about. Best performance came last time out at Taunton when he was subject of a real on-course gamble (6/1 into 11/4): still a bit too keen frontrunner, he managed to finish a good second to useful Vaziani, second to Radicean last Saturday at Kempton, relegating a well fancied Nicholls’ runner 13 lengths behind. There are a few fancied competitors today coming from more important yards but Marettimo can make good use of his experience and rates the value each way bet at 11/1.

12:50 Sunset Showdown 15/8 Ladbrokes 2/1 Betfair
When I was studying the form of this race yesterday I decided that I was always going to make my choice depending on the odds: Piton Pete is very consistent and was often well backed but did not deliver yet. This could be his day but at current prices I m gonna try Sunset Showdown for the Curtis’ yard. Expensive purchase as 3 year-old, won a point-to-point contest over today’s distance at Knockanard beating two subsequent winners in Master Of Tara and Chosen Path. He made a creditable debut under rules at Chepstow in flat contest over the minimum trip (went off 11/8 favourite and Barry Geraghty made the trip for the single ride) and today he’s having his first start over timbers back up to winning distance. McManus’ charge is really well bred by Flemensfirth out the King’s Theatre’s dam and is related to plenty of hurdle/chase winners, should improve.

3:05 Carlos Du Fruitier 100/30 Paddy Power Coral Betfred 7/2 Betfair
It was a very eye-catching performance the one Carlos Du Fruitier delivered last time out when very well backed in much more competitive class 3 event than today’s contest (we had the winner in that race -Value At Risk). Held at the back of the pack and not always fluent in his jumping technique, he made some significant ground travelling apparently still well when fell 3 out. Already an impressive bumper winner last term on deep terrain, he was clearly held in high regarded by trainer Pauling as he was sent to Aintree’s Grand National meeting for his final outing in that division. After a creditable debut over timbers at Wetherby, won a decent Doncaster Novice when again very well supported at the early exchanges. Looking at his profile he seems one of those long term projects from this trainer: he is gradually improving with racing experience and he is the only runner on the card for the yard today.