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Fireworks time...
Stage 16
PONTE DI LEGNO - VAL MARTELLO/MARTELLTAL
27th May 2014
139 KM - High Mountain
This is "only" 139km long but should be one of the best stages of the race. Three absolutely brutal climbs, which should also be taken extremely quickly because of the shortness of the stage. All three climbs are scary, but two of these climbs are monsters. 2,000 metres or more is where the air starts to thin, it becomes difficult to breathe, and people start to suffer. The Gavia is 2,600m and the Stelvio is nearly 2,800m! These two climbs had to be cut from the race in 2013 due to bad conditions, not for the first time, but it should be raceable on Tuesday so we are in for a feast.
We start off at Ponte di Legno in Brescia, Lombardy and head north. After a short descent we start the first of the climbing immediately with the iconic and feared Gavia.
The Gavia is considered by some to be the hardest climb in Europe. Certainly in terms of altitude, length and average gradient of climb, it is at least the equal of anything else. The average gradient is 7.9%, it goes from 1258 metres at the base to 2621 metres at the summit. It reaches 16% in places, but it’s the last 3km, averaging 9% at the accompanying altitude will see some suffering.
In the 1988 Giro, only 90 seconds separated the top 7 in the GC when they took on the Gavia in horrendous, blizzard conditions. Johan Van Der Velde, the classy but mental Dutchman set off without gloves, arm or leg warmers or gilet. He would reach the summit before his pursuers Andy Hampsten and Erik Breukink, with everyone else trailing behind with bodies, breaks and gears all grinding to a halt in the sub-zero conditions.
Climbing the Gavia in those conditions is one thing, descending it is quite another. In his "Maglia Rosa, triumph and tragedy in the Giro d'Italia" Herbie Sykes says descending the Gavia in snow and ice is a horrific, unthinkable prospect. "Horribly steep, badly paved and full of craters, it's a racing cyclist's worst nightmare in the cold, let alone in sub-zero temperatures".
Van der Velde may have been a minute ahead at the summit but he stopped at the first hairpin in fear, and with the terror of that lottery of a descent lost 48 minutes (!) before the stage finish, 27km down the road in Bormio. The riders behind, many of them in tears from the climb now confonted their worst fears but the race director Torriani decreed the race would continue. Hampsten and Breukink slithered down as the snow turned to ice; Breukink took the stage and Hampsten the jersey. The existing maglia rosa Franco Chioccioli was inconsolable, the pre-race favourite Jean-Francois Bernard lost 9 minutes and Visentini, who had lost to Stephen Roche the year before, lost half an hour. The next day they were due to climb the Stelvio, but it was abandoned due to snow. Not even Torriani dared make the riders dice with death again.
The Gavia was due to be climbed again the following year and was deemed impassable due to snow. New race director Castellano had had enough. The conditions on the Gavia and the Stelvio were making a mockery of the race every year. They would no longer be climbed. The Giro did come back to the Gavia in 2008 when Emanuele Sella won the stage from Rovetta – Tirano, and the summit should be passable this year, but there has been a lot of work to get in it a state where it is raceable, and we will see 10 feet of snow on either side of the road.
After the Gavia we head further north to the Stevio pass on the Swiss border. The Stelvio is possibly the most historic climbs in all pro-cycling, and it’s a giant in every sense. The Stelvio is the second-highest paved road in the Alps, and the highest finish ever on any Grand Tour.
It’s worth noting that the Stelvio is the Cima Coppi, the highest point on the Giro, and mountain points are doubled over the summit of this climb. And so they should be. The Stelvio’s average gradient is 7.1% with a length of 21.5km, it’s 1533 metres from the bottom to the top, which is at 2758 metres above sea level. The last 10km of this climb are above 2,000 metres and the last 4km average 8%. This will put everyone in real trouble, and we could see some real gaps developing already.
In 2012 Thomas de Gendt wrote his name into Giro fokelore with his astonishing solo attack on the Stelvio, which would lead to him moving all the way up to 4th in the GC, which became 3rd when he made up more time in the next day’s TT. This huge climb, following on the footsteps of the Gavia will go a long way in deciding the stage winner and possibly the maglia rosa.
If those two beasts aren’t enough we finish on the Monte Martello. The Val Martello is a longer climb than the Stelvio at 22.3km. The good news for the weary riders is that the average gradient is not as steep as the previous two climbs, and the summit is not as high.
But there’s bad news too; by this point, oxygen deprivation at altitude and the sheer distance they’ve climbed will take its toll on the legs and the issue with this climb is that the gradient is not steady. There are several less steep sections, but there are also some horrible parts that go upto 20%. With about 5km to go there is a section that averages 12.5%, and although it flattens out and there is even a small descent, the last 1.5km average over 10%.
This is an absolutely brutal day, and only the strongest will survive. Nairo Quintana will see it as a day to recapture a big chunk of the time Rigoberto Uran has on him. Yesterday Aru and Rolland looked strong, and Uran made some time over his nearest rivals Evans, Pozzovivo and Majka. It’s difficult to know how a rest day will affect some of these guys. There is no super-strong team that will drive the peloton either, so a strong break could make it, but with this amount of climbing, and the fact that you can throw a blanket over the top 10 in terms of time gaps, means I think this will be fought out by the GC guys.
The other thing to note is that with tomorrow's stage being short and quick, it's probably the one that's most likely to see bigger guys fall outside the time limits. Bouhanni red jersey backers (me included) beware...
But if the stage win is fought out by "the big big favourites" (copyright Sean Kelly, every day) , I make Nairo Quintana a worthwhile bet at 2/1. I think this is where he comes to the fore and tries to take control of the race. I think he has several things in his favour. Other than Uran he has more experience of competing for GC in big mountain stages in Grand Tours compared to other potential stage winners like Aru and Majka. He is probably well on the mend from his illness of week two. If we assume a linear recovery, then he should be in better shape on Tuesday than he was on either Saturday or Sunday. He’s also got experience at altitude on big stages, which will be crucial for this. I’ve got two others I want to back as well but I will leave them for now as I’m not happy with prices and I might get better.
Stage 16
PONTE DI LEGNO - VAL MARTELLO/MARTELLTAL
27th May 2014
139 KM - High Mountain
This is "only" 139km long but should be one of the best stages of the race. Three absolutely brutal climbs, which should also be taken extremely quickly because of the shortness of the stage. All three climbs are scary, but two of these climbs are monsters. 2,000 metres or more is where the air starts to thin, it becomes difficult to breathe, and people start to suffer. The Gavia is 2,600m and the Stelvio is nearly 2,800m! These two climbs had to be cut from the race in 2013 due to bad conditions, not for the first time, but it should be raceable on Tuesday so we are in for a feast.
We start off at Ponte di Legno in Brescia, Lombardy and head north. After a short descent we start the first of the climbing immediately with the iconic and feared Gavia.
The Gavia is considered by some to be the hardest climb in Europe. Certainly in terms of altitude, length and average gradient of climb, it is at least the equal of anything else. The average gradient is 7.9%, it goes from 1258 metres at the base to 2621 metres at the summit. It reaches 16% in places, but it’s the last 3km, averaging 9% at the accompanying altitude will see some suffering.
In the 1988 Giro, only 90 seconds separated the top 7 in the GC when they took on the Gavia in horrendous, blizzard conditions. Johan Van Der Velde, the classy but mental Dutchman set off without gloves, arm or leg warmers or gilet. He would reach the summit before his pursuers Andy Hampsten and Erik Breukink, with everyone else trailing behind with bodies, breaks and gears all grinding to a halt in the sub-zero conditions.
Climbing the Gavia in those conditions is one thing, descending it is quite another. In his "Maglia Rosa, triumph and tragedy in the Giro d'Italia" Herbie Sykes says descending the Gavia in snow and ice is a horrific, unthinkable prospect. "Horribly steep, badly paved and full of craters, it's a racing cyclist's worst nightmare in the cold, let alone in sub-zero temperatures".
Van der Velde may have been a minute ahead at the summit but he stopped at the first hairpin in fear, and with the terror of that lottery of a descent lost 48 minutes (!) before the stage finish, 27km down the road in Bormio. The riders behind, many of them in tears from the climb now confonted their worst fears but the race director Torriani decreed the race would continue. Hampsten and Breukink slithered down as the snow turned to ice; Breukink took the stage and Hampsten the jersey. The existing maglia rosa Franco Chioccioli was inconsolable, the pre-race favourite Jean-Francois Bernard lost 9 minutes and Visentini, who had lost to Stephen Roche the year before, lost half an hour. The next day they were due to climb the Stelvio, but it was abandoned due to snow. Not even Torriani dared make the riders dice with death again.
The Gavia was due to be climbed again the following year and was deemed impassable due to snow. New race director Castellano had had enough. The conditions on the Gavia and the Stelvio were making a mockery of the race every year. They would no longer be climbed. The Giro did come back to the Gavia in 2008 when Emanuele Sella won the stage from Rovetta – Tirano, and the summit should be passable this year, but there has been a lot of work to get in it a state where it is raceable, and we will see 10 feet of snow on either side of the road.
After the Gavia we head further north to the Stevio pass on the Swiss border. The Stelvio is possibly the most historic climbs in all pro-cycling, and it’s a giant in every sense. The Stelvio is the second-highest paved road in the Alps, and the highest finish ever on any Grand Tour.
It’s worth noting that the Stelvio is the Cima Coppi, the highest point on the Giro, and mountain points are doubled over the summit of this climb. And so they should be. The Stelvio’s average gradient is 7.1% with a length of 21.5km, it’s 1533 metres from the bottom to the top, which is at 2758 metres above sea level. The last 10km of this climb are above 2,000 metres and the last 4km average 8%. This will put everyone in real trouble, and we could see some real gaps developing already.
In 2012 Thomas de Gendt wrote his name into Giro fokelore with his astonishing solo attack on the Stelvio, which would lead to him moving all the way up to 4th in the GC, which became 3rd when he made up more time in the next day’s TT. This huge climb, following on the footsteps of the Gavia will go a long way in deciding the stage winner and possibly the maglia rosa.
If those two beasts aren’t enough we finish on the Monte Martello. The Val Martello is a longer climb than the Stelvio at 22.3km. The good news for the weary riders is that the average gradient is not as steep as the previous two climbs, and the summit is not as high.
But there’s bad news too; by this point, oxygen deprivation at altitude and the sheer distance they’ve climbed will take its toll on the legs and the issue with this climb is that the gradient is not steady. There are several less steep sections, but there are also some horrible parts that go upto 20%. With about 5km to go there is a section that averages 12.5%, and although it flattens out and there is even a small descent, the last 1.5km average over 10%.
This is an absolutely brutal day, and only the strongest will survive. Nairo Quintana will see it as a day to recapture a big chunk of the time Rigoberto Uran has on him. Yesterday Aru and Rolland looked strong, and Uran made some time over his nearest rivals Evans, Pozzovivo and Majka. It’s difficult to know how a rest day will affect some of these guys. There is no super-strong team that will drive the peloton either, so a strong break could make it, but with this amount of climbing, and the fact that you can throw a blanket over the top 10 in terms of time gaps, means I think this will be fought out by the GC guys.
The other thing to note is that with tomorrow's stage being short and quick, it's probably the one that's most likely to see bigger guys fall outside the time limits. Bouhanni red jersey backers (me included) beware...
But if the stage win is fought out by "the big big favourites" (copyright Sean Kelly, every day) , I make Nairo Quintana a worthwhile bet at 2/1. I think this is where he comes to the fore and tries to take control of the race. I think he has several things in his favour. Other than Uran he has more experience of competing for GC in big mountain stages in Grand Tours compared to other potential stage winners like Aru and Majka. He is probably well on the mend from his illness of week two. If we assume a linear recovery, then he should be in better shape on Tuesday than he was on either Saturday or Sunday. He’s also got experience at altitude on big stages, which will be crucial for this. I’ve got two others I want to back as well but I will leave them for now as I’m not happy with prices and I might get better.
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good review mc
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http://www.cyclingnews.com/giro-ditalia/stage-16
A video to watch maybe |
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should be a terrific stage and great write up, thanks MC
no doubt Arredondo will be the first onto the attack again, but the way he constantly looks around suggests he does not believe in himself either to distance his rivals. Rolland has shown his keenness to respond to attacks and then go on the attack himself. The ones to look out for could therefore be Ulissi and Hesjedal both @ 50/1 the other rider worth a small saver at a big price could be sent on ahead of Cadel Evans and might just stay away and seems to be the forgotten climber, Sammy Sanchez who is 250/1 with a favoured irish firm who love gimmicks so much whatever happens sit back and enjoy, it could be explosive |
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Snow is forecast now on the Gavia and Stelvio. Chance we don't climb one or both. Presuming we're on it should be a great stage.
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Superb write up MC.
Looks an absolute monster of a stage, a real cracker. It should be fantastic to watch, and like you said we should real fireworks. It sounds like the roads passed the inspection this evening, and they are expecting everything to be ok for tomorrow. Though they are inspecting again at 9.30am and do have an alternative route, via Passo Tonale and Passo Castrin, instead of Gavia and Stelvio, should the weather unexpectedly worsen. With so much climbing over 2000 metres, the altitude is going to have a huge effect here. It really does look like a day made for Quintana, and after the rest day the chances are he feeling much better than he was last week. I can't see a break staying away, so it's hard to see anything but a win for Quintana here. He will know if he doesn't take a big amount of time here, then it will be very very hard for him to win this Giro. The interesting thing will be when does he attack?? You would think 5-10km out on the final climb, but if he see's most of his rivals suffering on Stelvio will he attack there?? It's quite likely that many will be suffering there, so he may see attacking on Stelvio as potentially a race winning move, an opportunity to really take huge time on everyone. It is a long way from the finish though, and it would obviously be much safer for him to leave his attacking until the Martello. It could even be an option for Movistar to get a strong climber like Anton in the break, and then have Quintana bridging over to him on Stelvio?? It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out, and the tactics the teams use. I can't wait, just love watching these brutal mountain stages, this is what grand tours are all about. |
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I got my fingers burnt on Pozzovivo yesterday but that doesn't put me off one bit for tomorrow and I think the market has overreacted to one slightly iffy ride. Before yesterday's stage he had attacked And put Uran in trouble and only Quintana could live with him of the GC contenders. Before that he rode a very good ITT. Maybe he was felling it yesterday and the rest day came at the perfect time. I thought he was very interesting that Uran took Pozzo's wheel for most of the climb - until he realised he was in trouble. That for me shows who Uran thought was the danger man for the stage and the big attack. Sitting on Pozzo's wheel meant Uran was sometimes 9 men back in the peloton....dangerous for the race leader.
Also I can't state my true thoughts on Pozzo on here but suffice to say I think he will have had plenty of steaks on the rest day today. Sometimes we ignore things like that when betting on cycling but boy are they crucial. Anyway, I feel Pozzo will be determined to make amends and he said yesterday his aim was a stage win and a top 5 place. Tomorrow might be his best chance of a stage win. And with him losing time yesterday, he might be allowed more rope. Plus he has the strongest climbing team on the giro IMHO. A steaked-up Pozzo to gain compensation for yesterday's disappointment. He is too big a price considering he went off at 4-1 for yesterday's stage |
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Brilliant write-up MC.
I share the excitement of the forum for this stage, it looks to be an abosolute cracker after the rest day, and the short distance should contribute to attacking riding. From the long list of riders with stage-winning aspirations who will look to attack early, none really have the long-range credentials to succeed, except for perhaps Rolland and only then if given support. Arrendondo has shown his inexperience by being impatient, and he doesn't fit the long-range scenario. From the GC contenders Pozzovivo may have a good day and look likely at some stage, but Quintana has shown that staying with the Italian veteran is not very difficult. The fact that he is not challenging for favouritism with the Books, confirms my belief that he doesn't have the devastating attack required to win this stage from the GC bunch. I therefore think he might narrow the gap to Evans by finishing ahead of him, but cannot hold any confident scenario within the normal understanding of the way the stage might unfold -- for him to be fighting for stage honours. Yes, it's true that he did most of the work on stage 14 after attacking the GC group, with Quintana sitting on his wheel, however the ease with which Quintana sat on his wheel was the telling factor. Quintana might have been patient throughtout the Giro in the first two weeks by default, since the circumstances of his crash and the cold forced him to ride for placing by staying with the GC contenders and thus limiting his losses. He succeeded in that respect, and if I was going to mark him on that Mid-Mountain week, then an A- would seem an appropriate grade, simply because he only lost time to the GC contenders in the ITT, likely at the height of his cold since his breathing was affected the most, and it was a major disadvantage against freely-breathing opposition in a discipline where there is nowhere to hide. Take away that loss he suffered in the ITT to Uran, and he is leading this race by a single sec. I think his 3/1 price on here to win the stage is excellent value, and after a rest day and hopefully with the cold now gone, I believe this is one of the stages where he should be full of riding and will be backing him for the stage win on a WIN ONLY basis. Good luck to all, SP |
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I have backed Nairo Quintana on here and with **** at 3/1. However, Gazzetta are reporting that he has an ear infection and a fever to go with his previous illness. They are also saying Pozzovivo has developed Bronchitis. **** are going 4 places, and so they get my money, especially as they are biggest on the each way plays I wanted. I've added Dani Moreno 18/1. I had a big single on him to beat Ulissi on Saturday but he lost 8 minutes. He looked in much better shape on Sunday and this is the sort of climbing stage that should suit him down to the ground. He is no threat at all on GC so he could be one that is allowed away. I've also backed Uran and Majka, both at 28/1. If it does come back together I would see them as place contenders.
 Big day for Uran this, if he can avoid losing serious time to anyone he becomes a strong favourite but if Quintana or one of the other contenders makes 30 seconds or more it's all up for grabs. |
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**** = Spoilsports
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Gazetta reporting this morning at Quintana still has a high fever. Not sure this stage is what he wants if that is how he is feeling
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hmm was going to have agood bet on quintana spoil way out of line on price dont see much hope of him winning giro with all his ailments obviously he has just tried to stay in hunt hoping for full fitness this last week I think he would of won easily if 100% still looking forward to todays stage
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ffs an ear infection? altitude wont help,can anyone confirm quintana health?
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Latest pictures, looks cold put passable
 Gavia now  Stevio now |
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Evans, Pozzovivo and Basso apparently a minute down on the maglia rosa group on the descent of the Gavia
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Evans back in the maglia rosa group. We've got
Franco Pellizotti Androni Giocattoli Dario Cataldo Team Sky Alexis Vuillermoz AG2R La Mondiale Robinson Chalapud Colombia Robert Kiserlovski Trek Factory Racing Przemyslaw Niemiec Lampre-Merida Hubert Dupont AG2R La Mondiale Jarlinson Pantano Colombia Diego Rosa Androni Giocattoli up ahead and Geniez (FDJ) chasing. |
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Is Quintana still value at 2.7 MC?
Many thanks... |
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Who'd be a bike rider ?
Eurosport saying Stelvio descent might be neutralised. How would they manage the time gaps ? |
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Not neutralised.
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This is mental. The race organisers tweeted that the descent was neutralised. Then Quintana makes 2 minutes on the maglia rosa on that "neutralised" descent and then they delete the tweet.
There is going to be some serious repercussions here. It's keep money in pocket time imo |
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I greened out on my Quintana bet on here and threw away some profit, but I backed him with the Padds & Spoils as well so that's a good result.
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Not such a good result for my outright bet on Uran. Might have to put my new bike plans on hold.
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A huge ride from Quintana, doing all the work himself for 20km+ on the brutal Martello, we all knew it was going to happen, it was just a case of when! Yes there will be slight controversy over the descent but he started the final climb only 1m25s up on the maglia rosa group, he did the real damage on his own on the climb. There is no doubting who is the strongest rider here, and it will just be a case of how many minutes he wins by from here. It should be a great battle for the podium places, with Rolland possibly looking the next strongest right now, though Kelderman was quite impressive today, and it could be any one of 7 or 8 riders on the podium come sunday.
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A nice result for me Mary
Backed Quintana outright @ 2.44 & for the stage @ 3.9 thanks to you. This is becoming my favourite thread ! |
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a cracking stage , just wished i had done Hesjedal e/w but i am not an e/w punter, brave brave ride from him but never thought i was gonna collect. Chapeau to Quintana, we could be in for some great Grand Tours in the years to come guys
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Not sure if you've seen this on Twitter.
http://gyazo.com/5c59cb5dc4a0ecb94fbf17e7ab517404 |
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If that is correct then it's got to be a DQ.
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So they did neutralise the race and certain teams ignored it. It's going to be a complete clusterf*ck administratively from now on.
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the race organisers have already stated that they announced the red flags were just to warn about difficult sections. They have said that the word "neutralised" was never used. Anyhow, it won't be being changed now.
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Unfortunately
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Some weasel words there from the organisers
 Leferve and Tinkov are all over this, so I wouldn't be surprised if this carries on. Not sure to feel sorry for Quintana as whatever he does now will be taken as a cheat or put him in the same category as Rolland who is always doing similar. |
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Oleg going Postal. Apparently he's got the organisers in the Saxo bus trying to get yesterdays times expunged.
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Layed Quintana a little more at 1.20 as the rumour is he might be docked time. Not certain to happen but 1.2 is the wrong price if it does.
If the story about him asking the neutralised bike to speed up and then when it didn't passed it is true he could be in a lot more trouble. Will see what the prepared statement says after todays stage. |
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There is absolute no chance of any time being docked. The fastest man down the Stelvio descent was Cataldo, he wasn't told to slow down and then 2 mins later the next fastest were Rolland, and Hesjedal follwed by Quintana and they were never once told to slow down. It really is just terribly bad sour grapes from Tinkoff and Omega because their men lost time. You didn't hear any of the riders complain, and in fact Pozzovivo and Evans have both come out and said that they never thought for one moment it had been neutralised. Watch the Stelvio descent over again, you will see that Rolland and Quintana were always ahead of Uran etc, right from the top. The rest of the maglia rosa group just didn't folow their wheels but it never looked like they were racing down, for whatever reason Uran chose not to or just couldn't follow them on the descent. Not at any point on that descent did the Quintana group appear to be racing hard or taking any major risks. They only made 1 min 30 anyway there, and the way Quintana had to ride virtually solo then for the last 25km, I think if Quintana had sat in the maglia rosa group, he would have had lots more energy left for the last 10km and would really have blasted his rivals away then by 5mins +!
To my mind it was a lot less controversial than the way Evans stole time over the whole field on Stage 6. |
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Uran (and most of the other big favourites) stopped at the top and put extra layers on becuase they had been informed the descent was neutralised and would be slow and cold. When they restarted they said they thought that all the favourites were together (including Quintana) and it wasn't until a few km down the descent that they heard that Quintana had a gap.
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That is only what they have come out and said after losing so much time. All the riders I've heard have said they never once thought it was neutralised, it is only certain DS's coming out and saying that. The fact Cataldo had gone flying down the descent and had not been told to slow, a full 2 mins before the maglia rosa group, should have been notice enough to anyone who was uncertain. The maglia rosa group also had 20 km on the flat before martello to make up the 1min 30s gap, which they never really made any effort too. The gap at the bottom of the climb was 1m35s and stayed steady between 1m20s and 1m50s up until 15km to go when Quintana really upped the pace on the climb.
Like i say what Evans did was far worse than what Quintana did. I can't wait for Quintana to put 3 or 4 more mins in to Uran and Majka tomorrow, lets see what excuse they come up with then! Uran had been struggling for days to stay with Quintana, it was only matter of when he lost the time. |
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I've been open to being convinced on this matter, although I haven't put too much work into the precise details, but HB, you put it well mate. The only thing I'd say is that it's a bad look when there is conflict amongst the big teams, it makes them all look bad, and the WT should be above this, especially as Quintana is being rated as one of the Purest Climber's ever.
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I don't disagree with most of what you're saying but there's no way those riders would have stopped at the top of the descent normally. I don't think any time should be taken away from Quintana, and I don't think Quintana did anything wrong but I don't think Uran or anyone else is whining or lying, they're just telling it how it is/was.
The only thing I'd disagree with is that there was no effort made to close the gap. The way they were burning off domestiques in both groups shows me they were making every effort to close and hold the gap in the respective groups. I've heard a few riders say they didn't know it was neutralised but most I've heard said they thought it was. There clearly is confusion. Certainly the fault seems to be with the race organisers, not the riders. As I understand it, Movistar also agreed that to remove the time Quintana and others gained on the descent so it seems like there is consensus amongst the teams but I can't see the race organisers playing ball. Anyway, I'm sure you're right that Quintana will put the argument to bed by taking more time tomorrow. |
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Statement out, all teams agreed that Quintana, Hesjedal and Rolland should lose two minutes but the organizers refused.
All very odd. If Movistar are agreeing why would you refuse it as it just stokes up a bigger problem? That's as it stands atm. |