Giro D'Italia

you always have to wait how weather affects the route

I expect certain riders to turn back the years. So I've taken Scarponi and Basso well in advance.

Layed Quintana as the short price favourite although I think he's probably the best suited for the route and at 2013 levels should win this at a canter.

A fun bet on Team Gadret as well.

I've got one I fancy at a price,

Had my first Giro bet today. Want to bet the same bloke top 10 as well, but no market anywhere yet...

CJ70 -- on what basis do you expect these certain riders to turn back the years?

Apr 28, 2014 -- 10:08AM, SwingingPick wrote:

CJ70 -- on what basis do you expect these certain riders to turn back the years?

Not sure you are going to like it. It's the same reason as Horner for the Vuelta last year.

Form this year has been a re-run of who was on top in 2011 before there was a rumour of a new test.

Hey mate, I don't mind odd theories, but as you correctly suspect the drug issue talk is not my cup of tea. Then again, comparison by years can work without such talk, since it doesn't matter how we arrive at the comparison but rather how conclusive the data is in matching. Interested to take a look. SP.

CJ70 -- Not sure your claims check out mate.

Basso won the Giro in 2010 not 2011, for the second time after his 2006 victory, in fact. His only stage race win on GC in 2011, was a second-rate category 1 classification race. The same classification for his one-day classic win in the GP Di Lugano over less than 200 kms. Even if we look in 2010, he finished 5th in the Giro del Trentino, whilst this year in the same race he finished only 25th. Take your pick from a long list of second-stringers that finished ahead of him in that race, and some that have raced far better than him this season.

Michele Scarponi can be regarded as a Giro specialist, having ridden this race every year since 2009: 32/4/1/4/4. In his 2011 season when he won here on GC, he had won Giro del Trentino, Catalunya, and finished on the podium in Tirreno-Adriatico. A 6th place finish in MSR was also noteworthy since he finished with the 7 rider group. This year he has done nothing whatsoever, although finishing seventeen places ahead of Basso in Trentino, might be considered something? I guess my point is that for your observation to hold up to scrutiny, Scarponi should have showed glimpses of his 2011 strength in at least one stage of one stage race this season, like he did in 2011, and he just hasn't.

I remember you to offer good insight in the past, but in my opinion this particular theory is not one which holds much weight, I'm afraid. SP.

I suspect what he meant was that as we've seen names (Gilbert? Contador?) show form after a couple of 'barren' years maybe we might see a few other names recapture past glories in the Giro?

Okay, but those past glories didn't come from nowhere, the seasons' showed form leading to glory. Basso and Scarponi have little chance here, of the two Scarponi has some chance for another top-4 showing, and possibly a podium if one of the top two riders crash out or catch an illness. SP

Any odds against Quintana is a gift from the gods. He is Frankel in this field. he will tear this lot a new one in the mountains - Purito has had a tough Classics season and just doesn't look right to me. Others gotta hope Nairo is ill or injured to beat him. Should be 1.6 imho

Don't know if you are working a small position fluctuation CJ, but you seem to like Quintana, also? I'm with Clay's exuberant confidence on this one, though.

I mean, it seems we've got a consensus on Quintana winning, but is it really the best bet? Winning bets are always the best bets, and he looks the winner, but whether that is the best risk/reward option, is another matter somewhat different, I would suggest? SP

Sorry if I didn't put over what I meant clearly. So far this season we have seen previously successful athletes that have fallen away over the last few years suddenly being able to give themselves the extra 5-10% again and peak.

Scarponi and Basso have both had their best performances doped to the gills in Italy. Both coming to the end of their career and wanting to go out with a bang will have targeted a good result at their home race. The mysterious rise of previous dopers finding excellent form this season suggests that certain athletes are not afraid of getting caught.

They may not win but the prices are completely wrong if there is a chance of them reaching back towards their glory form. I think that chance is pretty high.

As for Quintana I couldn't back a rider in a 3 week race at even money. On last years form he is head and shoulders above a weak field, I agree.  I've already mentioned how I think last years form is unreliable and Quintana this year has hardly been outstanding. I've layed up as far as 2.3x.

I guess in summary what I'm trying to say is that I believe Quintana to be the best rider and most likely winner if all things are even. I don't expect them to be.

It's not a particularly pleasant point and I don't expect everybody to agree.

the teams do not look strong compared to most Giros

http://www.pelotonwatch.com/calendar/2014/worldtour/giroditalia/startlist.html

is TVG ruled out through injury ?

is this the best Sky can offer?

After Cadel's resurgence maybe he can add a second Grand Tour?

Looks like a good opportunity for some lesser lights in the sport to stamp their name with a podium finish in a GT

Big price is Julien Arredondo @ 200/1

few more days to study the stages properly,

Disappointed it clashes with Womens Tour of Britain as i wanted to attend Stage 4 Cheshunt to Welwyn
rare opportunity to watch Marianne Vos riding here

CJ -- No worries, I think I can be a bit too pedantic sometimes. I understand your point, although I'm uncomfortable with it. I in-turn understand your discomfort in backing a rider at around evens in a three week event. Nevertheless, I think I will pay for my outsider by backing Quintana on the basis of: 1.) his endurance over three weeks has been confirmed. 2.) his distinct ability to cope with altitude. 3.) his season is good to fair:

1st Tour of San Luis -- clear winner.
2nd Tirreno-Adriatico -- Beaten by a brilliant Bertie. Safely held Kreuziger with 9 secs.
5th Tour of Catalunya -- 10 secs behind Purito, Bertie, and TVG. Didn't really look comfortable, but 10 secs is a small margin. Willing to forgive him.

CM -- I believe TVG was always going to be targeted for the Tour since the team announced Evans for the Giro quite early. Most recently: Sport Director Baldato said the quality of the squad around Evans exceeds any edition the BMC Racing Team has fielded since it first began competing in the Giro in 2010.

I don't think Sky know if they're coming or going -- what they're doing? Surprised there hasn't been anything big written yet about a big team which looks like it has had a cluster-bomb thrown into it. Indeed they can have a much better team, and they can be much smarter about their selections and targets. I don't think they know what they're doing beyond Romandie. More to research here, but in their present state they look poor.

Cadel is an interesting prospect after his Trentino win by nearly a minute on GC. His age at 37 for three weeks can be understood in opposing ways. Good, because he has the experience and is a proven GT winner. And bad, that he has to sustain such physical exertion and condition on a body which might have lost some of its suppleness. What do you think about the price -- 12/1 best and 9/1 at the worst? 

Great minds think alike! Arredondo was my big-price selection, also. I believe he was 250/1 a few days ago. Will introduce him on MC's Giro thread preview a little later.

Pity about the WTB. Will you be getting out to watch the Tour at all over the three stages, this year?

Cheers,
SP

Sky are a mess. Arrogance is got the better of them and now the tail is between their legs. All winter long it was about how Porte was going for the Giro, now with Froome looking 'iffy' to say the least Porte has been rerouted to the TDF to support Froome. It's the biggest admission yet from Sky that all is not well with Froome.
And with the Bertie Tour de Force coming their way, they are rightly sh!tting it

Clay did you write that before watching Froome today??? Nothing iffy about Froome's form at all, he rode away from Nibali like he wasnt there today, and Nibali is in decent form as he showed in the classics. Froome won in Oman, then picked up a back strain in Catalunya though still managed to finish 6th, and will win Romandie, don't think thats too iffy myself. All was not well with Froome re the back strain but that was public knowledge, and he has come out this week and shown it has not affected his form at all. I'd be shocked if Froome gets beat in the TDF, and i doubt Contador will make the podium.

As for Porte, the full intention was to go for the Giro until  he missed 3 weeks with the flu, picked up during tirreno-adriatico. Therefore he missed his planned prep races and a big block of training, meaning he was no way going to be ready for the giro, and as you can see in Romandie he is still far from back to full fitness yet. Richie Porte was desperate to be team leader at the Giro and have a crack at winning a grand tour, but once he got ill he knew he  had to ease off the training and so wouldnt be able to do himself justice. Sky's back up plan for the  Giro was Henao but as we know he is back in Colombia, so two unforeseen and unpredictable occurances mean they are going to the Giro with no gc contender. Thats just how it happens sometimes, call it bad luck or whatever, not a lot you can do about that.

I guess my point and perhaps what Clay picked-up on, was that Sky are a big team with a big budget and big expectations. Incidentally, they have been slowly building to such brand name recognition with Wiggins' success initially, and then confirmed their success and name with Froome's win in the Tour last year. Perhaps they can now be considered the Man Utd of the WT, in that respect? However, big teams are successful in the face of unexpected events by planning for contingencies, and clearly they haven't done that this year.

No GC contender for a GT by a team of this type, clearly shows, I would argue, that they were sailing along with little in the way of critical back-up plans as things were going against them. Indeed, when things with Porte were looking concerning they decided to bide their time with Henao, when the results of the study into his 'altitude native' effects might have been conducted in a more suitable time-frame to that which they initially set aside (8 weeks), and thus might have given them him as an option for the Giro, since I agree with you that he would have been their logical choice in the absence of Porte. In my opinion it just highlights a lack of close-planning throughout the season, another of which can also be reflected in the way they flogged Thomas after a promising classics campaign by pushing him into the Ardennes, unnecessarily. The way Thomas worked for Porte in Andalucia was remarkable, and a similar role by him for Henao in the Giro, might have given them at least the appearance of a team thinking through their options in a considered way.

Froome
2013	2014
1st Tour of Oman	1st Tour of Oman
2nd Tirreno-Adriatico	back injury
1st Criterium International	6th Tour of Catalunya
1st Tour de Romandie	1st Tour of Romandie?

     

Froome's back injury has clearly been his only problem this year, and I agree with you that there's nothing iffy about his performance in Romandie, especially stage 3, since Spilak was past him for the win last year in a similar stage, I believe.

Cheers,
SP

Not sure SKY could have done much about Henao as it could have turned out he'd be missing a couple of years Bertie style.

Cataldo and Siutsou are both top 10 material and I suspect they'll be hoping for much the same from Kennaugh and Henao in the future. No big names but not as weak it looks IMO. Saying that.. I expect them to be stage hunting rather than a tilt at the overall.

i missed the 250/1 Arredondo had to settle for 200/1

i have decided to forgo Tv coverage of the start of the Giro to go watch the Womens Tour of Britain.
I watch too much cycling online and cant pass up the chance to watch the world's best on British roads.

Yes SP i have booked the first week of the TDF off as hols, i plan to be at the finish of stage 1 in Harrogate and cheer on Cavendish's attempt (probably his last chance) to win a yellow jersey. Second day i will be at York racecourse for the start of stage 2. For stage 3 i anticipating watch action on the road probably through Epping Forest. This way i get a mix of start middle and end over the tremendous three days. Cant wait! Anyone else on this forum planning to watch it live?

Be nice to get some more markets...

Top 3
Top 6
Top 10
Stage markets
Nationality of Winner
GC matchups
Points
Mountain
Team
Youth
Irish rider Stage wins

Get a frigging move on Betfair it starts in 5 days

Bet £3.65 have got some other markets up. I can't believe they've got Kittel and Bouhanni 15/1 for points jersey, I'm going to take some on both as I think they have got this wrong.

Winner w/o Quintana.

CM -- After taking closer research, I really believe that Arredondo is a 1000/1 at 1/5 top-10 proposition, so 200/1 or 250/1 doesn't really matter a lot I don't think, since he is more a chance in a top-10 finish than on the podium. Just had a few coins E/W off-site, in any case.

Sounds great on the Tour itinerary mate, you've really thought it through properly. Hope it's a few great days for all, and that weather you Brits always complain about is instead shown to be gloriously sunny and warm. Really looking forward to seeing the Yorkshire countryside. SP

Uran Uran backed GC.

Slightly off topic but went to watch the Team Time Trial yesterday and was very impressed with the way the Irish have taken to the race.

well..had some fun with Rigoberto @22.0...but congrats to the Quintana faithful. He is the real deal going uphill.

Thanks heaps for your contribution, V.

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