2014 La Fleche Wallonne

La Fleche Wallonne, also known as The Walloon Arrow, continues the week of Ardennes Classics with the race to be once again decided on the Mur de Huy, a 1.3km climb at some 9.3% slope gradient, which will covered two times prior. In total, eleven climbs will feature along the 199km route, and whilst they will appear mainly in the second-half of the race, they are generally steeper and longer than the ones the riders faced in AGR on Sunday. The Books taking their sweet time to frame the market, suggested to me a distinct level of hesitation and indecision, and this was confirmed when the first Book (paddypower) finally showed their hand.

Philippe Gilbert, 3/1 favourite when establishing a parallel line of form to his brilliant 2011 season!? Purito, second favourite at 4/1 when he crashed out of the AGR on Sunday, is experiencing dizziness and complaining of pain from bruised ribs, and is not even confirmed for the race!? It’s a surprise that Dan Martin isn’t third favourite at 6/1 since he abandoned AGR with the realization that you, “You can't pedal with one leg” and will therefore be coming into this race with an injury cloud.

Jelle Vanendert at 22/1 is the first non-favourite rider with some value in the market, although he should be 33/1. He was one who was caught out before the left hander on Sunday, and thus was way behind the bar-room brawlers on the Cauberg, and yet he finished in 2nd place, seemingly coming from nowhere. This nowhere must have come from somewhere, and it must therefore have been an impressive bit of climbing out of (broadcast) camera frame. Here however, he won’t have the benefit of road to get back on, since as I've said the top of the climb brings with it the finish line, and so if he is out of position it’s most likely that he’ll finish out of position. He will need to ride more aggressively to get into a more prominent position, but even should he find himself on-terms with the other riders, I question his acceleration on some of the average steep sections at 19% of the Mur de Huy, or Wall of Huy. If things go weird in front, he may be one to grind out a good result, though.

Kwiatkowski looks better suited by the finish coming on top of the climb here, as he is by the steeper gradient on offer to that of the Cauberg. In the finish of Strade Bianche, he looked quite punchy on the narrow and steep finish when he made Sagan look like an outright sprinter, but he’ll need to get his timing right on a notoriously deceptive run-in to the start of the Wall. On the maximum steepness gradient of slope, on the bend at 26%, he may come back into proceedings should he find himself chasing early. He doesn't necessarily have a better team with him this time, but that may be an advantage since he might be more likely to hide in the peloton. He will be out to impress management with a solid performance, but 19/1 would be much more enticing.

Valverde looks like he is finally beginning to lose some of his impressive (earlier season) condition, and I think a convincing case might be made for his suitability and attraction on the start line of Liege, instead. I wouldn't be laying him, but I can't back him with any confidence. 

Daniel Moreno, the third favourite, looks like he is the one coming into this at the right time, with room for improvement on his 9th place finish in AGR. He was out of position coming into the left turn at the base of the start of the Cauberg on Sunday, but it wasn’t a highly convincing performance since he finished alongside other riders coming from the back also, and so 6/1 is far too short for my liking. He may go close, but there's no value in that price whatsoever.

I now think that Nibali’s (40/1) options are much smaller than I initially thought after the finish of AGR, and at 100/1 team-mate Gasparotto might get the principal role, instead. Gasparotto isn’t getting any younger at 32 years-of-age, but his weight looks good and it looks like there may be some improvement on his AGR ride.

In conclusion, as I inferred earlier, I cannot go past Gilbert and think his 3/1 price is value when taking into account his 2011 form line. He displayed a devastating kick on the Cauberg, knows the Wall intimately well, and whilst he’ll be disadvantaged by not having GVA in the team this time, both Sammy Sanchez and Ben Hermans have the ability to draw out attackers for him in the nervous and deceptive area of the run-in to the actual climb, should things go as predicted. Moreover, he will enjoy that the finish will come on top of the climb as this will give him more freedom to throw everything down on the Wall. And Gilbert with freedom whilst in-position, will be very difficult to beat, I think.

***** Philippe Gilbert 3/1 WIN ONLY. The one to beat. Rated to 100.

*** Michal Kwiatkowski 16/1 E/W. Sound prospects. Expect forward showing.

* Jelle Vanendert 22/1 E/W. Worthy of close consideration. Keep safe.
* Enrico Gasporotto 100/1 E/W. Perhaps a place at odds.

Good luck to all,
SP