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18 Apr 14
10:48
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11 Jul 11
Sorry MC, but the way BF works nowadays your preview might never get approved, and the forum might not have a preview to discuss. 
Amstel Gold Race is long at 252 kms, but what makes it a tricky race are the 34 short punchy climbs coming in rapid-fire succession, and the technical sections like narrow roads, small roundabouts, and sharp corners.
The Cauberg looks like the key to the race, and with the finish line remaining in place from last year’s change in coming some 2 kms after the top of the Cauberg, it gives the advantage back to a strong time-trial specialist or a rider who has a strong sprint. Kwiatkowski is OPQ’s main chance, but like the other punchy climbers at the top of the betting order, I believe they lose their advantage somewhat with the old finish line on top of the Cauberg no longer there. Simply, non-punchy climbers just have to hang on to the tail of a selection on the Cauberg to remain in the hunt for the line after it.
I therefore do not even see the Polish champion competing with someone like Gerrans for instance, if in a group over the climb, simply because he hasn’t proven he can sprint as hard. Likewise with Purito, who will have a big gear on the Cauberg and indeed could get away, and certainly will not get dropped, he just won’t have the strength in a sprint to the finish line, I don’t believe.
What do you do when you have a dynamite team of talented riders, know you will be dominate the WorldTour Team ranking, but yet want to improve your chances of having more overall victories, and more riders in the top 10 individual rankings table? You continue to develop what you already have.
Tony Martin hasn’t ridden a one day classic all season and it looks like this one is going to be his one and only, at least until one or two of his home German classics (or indeed even the Worlds race) come around much later in the season. Martin doesn’t ride the pave and whilst he has ridden in the odd Flanders classic in his long career, his only one day classic win came in the same region of Holland as the AGR, in the 185 km Volta Limburg Classic in 2008, at a time when he was being developed as an ITT specialist. Of the one-day classics he has ridden repeatedly, the Ardennes classics come to focus, and particularly the AGR, which he has been involved in from 2008 to 2010, finishing 147/99/106. Not exactly impressive results, but certainly expected results from a rider who has been a very successful one-trick pony.
At 28 years of age, and now peaking in maturity as a rider, and after having dominated the ITT discipline since 2011 and certainly even since 2010 when he was beginning to get consistently good results, he is now at a stage in his career where he can be developed as something even more. Indeed, Patrick Lefevere inferred in a tv interview in Dubai earlier in the season that the team would be looking to develop Tony Martin into a classics rider if not exactly a classics specialist. Whilst the mug interviewer didn’t draw out further the subject to give us more information into what management were exactly thinking with Martin, and whilst it is conjecture on my part, we can find a pattern of racing from him, at least from last year, which suggests that he holds no fear of hilly races such as that which he will find here, and indeed has shown that hilly races might suit his developing characteristics in order to prolong his career in the saddle.
Only recently, in fact in his last race in the Tour of the Basque Country, he got his first win of the season when soloing to victory from a break on a hilly course much more difficult than this one, since it included two cat 2 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 1, not to mention the rolling hills covering the final 40 kms. Whilst he got some assistance from team-mate Bakelants to attack Gorka Izagirre and get away on his own, what was a telling factor of his strength on undulating terrain was that he increased his lead in the last 10 kms, even though he faced a climb equally as problematic as the 900m long and 7.5% slope gradient which is the Cauberg, and which he will face twice in the final stages of this race, but four times in total. The final ITT stage 6 in this particular tour, was no pancake flat course which Martin has always been salivating over. Whilst short at 26 kms, there were two climbs of equal distance and gradient of slope at about 4 kms and 6.5% average.
Philippe Gilbert’s performance in stage 3 of Tirreno-Adriatico this season, was not very convincing when he attacked on the ramp to the finish, however he showed hardness to claim the 4th place, in retrospect. He then was in the finish in MSR with a fair result in finishing in 13th place. In comparison to last year when he finished in 5th place here, he does look much better than that result, especially on the back of his Brabant Arrow win on Wednesday. I believe he still has the potential to improve further, since he did a lot of hard riding when caught in no man’s land after attempting to bridge to the break late in the race. Looks dangerous. One of the main contenders. No value. Price too short, now.
Simon Gerrans hasn’t had the best season after his Tour Down Under win on GC. Since arriving back in Europe in February, he hasn’t finished either of the two stage races he started in, has complained of suffering from hayfever, and picked-up a virus prior to MSR. Nevertheless, in his last start in the Brabant Arrow, he passed the test of his condition with strong attacking riding. He faded in the final because of his attack at less than 50 kms to go, but he wanted to push himself to gain an idea of his condition, and he has stated that he passed his high standards. Here he knows what to do and when to do it, and he knows how the race might be won, therefore. In a bunch sprint he has the advantage of a very strong kick to the line, and he demonstrated this earlier in the year, when he beat the Gorilla in stage 1 of the Tour Down Under in a sprint.
Roman Kreuziger won this race last year with a solo victory from a small but highly select group. This year he showed a good start to the season when on the dusty white roads of Italy in the Strade Bianche, finishing in 5th place. Then in Tirreno-Adriatico when he was riding for Bertie, he showed excellent strength and climbing ability, when he surprisingly finished in 3rd place on GC. He came off the boil in the Basque Country, but it may have been a tune-up ride for this race.
Simon Geschke is 28 years-old and he looks like he might take a breakthrough win in a race such as this. He came into consideration last year after a good result in the Brabant Arrow when 4th, but could only manage an 18th place in AGR. His season looks better than last year though, and it would be no surprise to see him amongst the selections.
***** Tony Martin 250/1 E/W (paddypower) Best bet. Special.
*** Simon Gerrans 14/1 (various places) Should be 18/1 E/W. Coming into this at the right time. Treat warily.
** Roman Kreuziger 66/1 E/W (****) Worthy of close consideration. Should be thereabouts.
* Simon Geschke 66/1 E/W (various places) Should be 150/1. Some prospects. Worth considering.
Good luck to all,
SP
Amstel Gold Race is long at 252 kms, but what makes it a tricky race are the 34 short punchy climbs coming in rapid-fire succession, and the technical sections like narrow roads, small roundabouts, and sharp corners.
The Cauberg looks like the key to the race, and with the finish line remaining in place from last year’s change in coming some 2 kms after the top of the Cauberg, it gives the advantage back to a strong time-trial specialist or a rider who has a strong sprint. Kwiatkowski is OPQ’s main chance, but like the other punchy climbers at the top of the betting order, I believe they lose their advantage somewhat with the old finish line on top of the Cauberg no longer there. Simply, non-punchy climbers just have to hang on to the tail of a selection on the Cauberg to remain in the hunt for the line after it.
I therefore do not even see the Polish champion competing with someone like Gerrans for instance, if in a group over the climb, simply because he hasn’t proven he can sprint as hard. Likewise with Purito, who will have a big gear on the Cauberg and indeed could get away, and certainly will not get dropped, he just won’t have the strength in a sprint to the finish line, I don’t believe.
What do you do when you have a dynamite team of talented riders, know you will be dominate the WorldTour Team ranking, but yet want to improve your chances of having more overall victories, and more riders in the top 10 individual rankings table? You continue to develop what you already have.
Tony Martin hasn’t ridden a one day classic all season and it looks like this one is going to be his one and only, at least until one or two of his home German classics (or indeed even the Worlds race) come around much later in the season. Martin doesn’t ride the pave and whilst he has ridden in the odd Flanders classic in his long career, his only one day classic win came in the same region of Holland as the AGR, in the 185 km Volta Limburg Classic in 2008, at a time when he was being developed as an ITT specialist. Of the one-day classics he has ridden repeatedly, the Ardennes classics come to focus, and particularly the AGR, which he has been involved in from 2008 to 2010, finishing 147/99/106. Not exactly impressive results, but certainly expected results from a rider who has been a very successful one-trick pony.
At 28 years of age, and now peaking in maturity as a rider, and after having dominated the ITT discipline since 2011 and certainly even since 2010 when he was beginning to get consistently good results, he is now at a stage in his career where he can be developed as something even more. Indeed, Patrick Lefevere inferred in a tv interview in Dubai earlier in the season that the team would be looking to develop Tony Martin into a classics rider if not exactly a classics specialist. Whilst the mug interviewer didn’t draw out further the subject to give us more information into what management were exactly thinking with Martin, and whilst it is conjecture on my part, we can find a pattern of racing from him, at least from last year, which suggests that he holds no fear of hilly races such as that which he will find here, and indeed has shown that hilly races might suit his developing characteristics in order to prolong his career in the saddle.
Only recently, in fact in his last race in the Tour of the Basque Country, he got his first win of the season when soloing to victory from a break on a hilly course much more difficult than this one, since it included two cat 2 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 1, not to mention the rolling hills covering the final 40 kms. Whilst he got some assistance from team-mate Bakelants to attack Gorka Izagirre and get away on his own, what was a telling factor of his strength on undulating terrain was that he increased his lead in the last 10 kms, even though he faced a climb equally as problematic as the 900m long and 7.5% slope gradient which is the Cauberg, and which he will face twice in the final stages of this race, but four times in total. The final ITT stage 6 in this particular tour, was no pancake flat course which Martin has always been salivating over. Whilst short at 26 kms, there were two climbs of equal distance and gradient of slope at about 4 kms and 6.5% average.
Philippe Gilbert’s performance in stage 3 of Tirreno-Adriatico this season, was not very convincing when he attacked on the ramp to the finish, however he showed hardness to claim the 4th place, in retrospect. He then was in the finish in MSR with a fair result in finishing in 13th place. In comparison to last year when he finished in 5th place here, he does look much better than that result, especially on the back of his Brabant Arrow win on Wednesday. I believe he still has the potential to improve further, since he did a lot of hard riding when caught in no man’s land after attempting to bridge to the break late in the race. Looks dangerous. One of the main contenders. No value. Price too short, now.
Simon Gerrans hasn’t had the best season after his Tour Down Under win on GC. Since arriving back in Europe in February, he hasn’t finished either of the two stage races he started in, has complained of suffering from hayfever, and picked-up a virus prior to MSR. Nevertheless, in his last start in the Brabant Arrow, he passed the test of his condition with strong attacking riding. He faded in the final because of his attack at less than 50 kms to go, but he wanted to push himself to gain an idea of his condition, and he has stated that he passed his high standards. Here he knows what to do and when to do it, and he knows how the race might be won, therefore. In a bunch sprint he has the advantage of a very strong kick to the line, and he demonstrated this earlier in the year, when he beat the Gorilla in stage 1 of the Tour Down Under in a sprint.
Roman Kreuziger won this race last year with a solo victory from a small but highly select group. This year he showed a good start to the season when on the dusty white roads of Italy in the Strade Bianche, finishing in 5th place. Then in Tirreno-Adriatico when he was riding for Bertie, he showed excellent strength and climbing ability, when he surprisingly finished in 3rd place on GC. He came off the boil in the Basque Country, but it may have been a tune-up ride for this race.
Simon Geschke is 28 years-old and he looks like he might take a breakthrough win in a race such as this. He came into consideration last year after a good result in the Brabant Arrow when 4th, but could only manage an 18th place in AGR. His season looks better than last year though, and it would be no surprise to see him amongst the selections.
***** Tony Martin 250/1 E/W (paddypower) Best bet. Special.
*** Simon Gerrans 14/1 (various places) Should be 18/1 E/W. Coming into this at the right time. Treat warily.
** Roman Kreuziger 66/1 E/W (****) Worthy of close consideration. Should be thereabouts.
* Simon Geschke 66/1 E/W (various places) Should be 150/1. Some prospects. Worth considering.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Another great write-up SP. The value in Gilbert has surely gone but he deserves to be among the favourites, who can forget his heartbreaking ride in Stage 6 of last year's Vuelta?
What are your views on Bjorn Leukemans who does consistently well here or is he too old to go for overall victory?
The nature of this race means it is one of the hardest races of the year to predict , so hard to narrow the field because it can be won by a climber, a rouleur, or a sprinter who can hang on up the Cauberg.
Looking forward to MC's post
What are your views on Bjorn Leukemans who does consistently well here or is he too old to go for overall victory?
The nature of this race means it is one of the hardest races of the year to predict , so hard to narrow the field because it can be won by a climber, a rouleur, or a sprinter who can hang on up the Cauberg.
Looking forward to MC's post
cedar -- I think you've hit the nail on the head with respect to Leukemans. He has obviously been riding quite consistently this season, but is in the team to offer experience and guidance to their younger riders, I would suggest. It's hard to think that he has been saving his best result in such a race when halfway out-the-door to retirement. Additionally, 80/1 seems small for a rider who hasn't won this season and hasn't won a big classic in his career. Then again, I didn't think much of your Tjallingi pick in Roubaix, and he actually had a good forward showing for a large part of the race, so go with your gut mate, but I can't have him.
Astana may like Nibali for this even though Gasparotto won it in 2012. I believe Nibali has the suitable characteristics for the way this race is now staged, and even though he hasn't raced since San Remo he responds well to light racing. If he can be less ambitious than he has been in the past, and much more patient, then I would expect a big ride from him. In fact he made my short list, but can't tip them all. 66/1 is a cracking price for a proven workhorse, but you need some firm belief in him, and since I don't I won't back him.
Good luck,
SP
Astana may like Nibali for this even though Gasparotto won it in 2012. I believe Nibali has the suitable characteristics for the way this race is now staged, and even though he hasn't raced since San Remo he responds well to light racing. If he can be less ambitious than he has been in the past, and much more patient, then I would expect a big ride from him. In fact he made my short list, but can't tip them all. 66/1 is a cracking price for a proven workhorse, but you need some firm belief in him, and since I don't I won't back him.
Good luck,
SP
I think the play with Gilbert was to follow Clay, in backing him for this on the back of a strong ride in the Brabant Arrow. Pity Clay wasn't his articulate best. 
Even a small position at 14/1 would have proved to be a good foundation to build on prior to this. SP.
Even a small position at 14/1 would have proved to be a good foundation to build on prior to this. SP.
Amstel Gold Race
Sunday's Amstel Gold Race
Amstel Gold Race is the latest of Cycling’s Spring Classics, set in Southern Netherlands. After the cobbled classic races like Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix that favoured the peloton’s strongmen, Amstel Gold Race marks the first of the Ardennes Classics which will see the climbers and puncheurs come to prominence.
Route
Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are characterised by huge numbers of short, sharp climbs that sap the legs. The profile of this race resembles the bottom jaw of Roald Dahl’s Enormous Crocodile.
Profile
The Cauberg is the iconic climb associated with this race, and is climbed three times in all, including at finale. Last year the finish was moved a kilometre beyond the Cauberg and the route is the same for 2014. This means there is an intriguing tactical element to the race. Will the race be held together by teams with fast finishers, or will climbers attack, escape on the climb and stay away until the finish?
Riders Climbing the Cauberg and the Cauberg's Profile
Last year, 66/1 winner Roman Kreuziger escaped the bunch and stayed away to win solo. Behind him there was a sprint from a select group. Watch the 2013 Amstel Gold finishing kilometres here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI
This year’s race has a stellar cast. We have top quality climbers, the world’s best punchers, some fast men and some of the very best up-and-coming talent around. This all points towards an incredible race on Sunday.
Amstel Gold Race: Last year’s top ten (2013)
1. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff in 6-35-21
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar at 22secs
3. Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
4. Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-QuickStep
5. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing
6. Sergio Henao (Col) Sky
7. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM
8. Pieter Weening (Ned) Orica-GreenEdge
9. Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
10. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Blanco all same time
Amstel Gold Race: Recent winners
2013 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff
2012 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2010 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2009 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Team Katusha
2008 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre
2007 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner
2006 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
2005 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas-Bianchi
2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner
Amstel Gold Race 2014: Climbs
1. Slingerberg (105m, 9.4km)
2. Adsteeg (110m, 14.1km)
3. Lange Raarberg (140m, 22.3km)
4. Bergseweg (175m, 38km)
5. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 49.7km)
6. Cauberg (140m, 54.1km)
7. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 58.6km)
8. Wolfsberg (170m, 78.1km)
9. Loorberg (215m, 81.2km)
10. Schweibergerweg (220m, 92.5km)
11. Camerig (273m, 98.9km)
12. Drielandenpunt (320m, 109.5km)
13. Gemmenich (265m, 114km)
14. Vijlenerbos (276m, 117.8km)
15. Eperheide (224m, 126.5km)
16. Gulpenerberg (151m, 135.1km)
17. Plettenberg (141m, 138.6km)
18. Eijserweg (202m, 140.7km)
19. Huls (216m, 145.2km)
20. Vrakelberg (183m, 150.5km)
21. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 158.2km)
22. Cauberg (140m, 162.6km)
23. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 167.2km)
24. Bemelerberg (140m, 179.9km)
25. Loorberg (215m, 195.2km)
26. Gulpenerberg (151m, 204.7km)
27. Kruisberg (165m, 210.1km)
28. Eijserbosweg (195m, 212km)
29. Fromberg (165m, 215.8km)
30. Keutenberg (175m, 220.3km)
31. Cauberg (140m, 230.3km)
32. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 234.9km)
33. Bemelerberg (140m, 243.6km)
34. Cauberg (140m, 248.8km)
Amstel Gold Race: Contenders
All prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner
Alejandro ‘El Bala’ Valverde (Movistar 9/2) Second last year, winning the bunch sprint behind Kreuziger, Valverde has been in fantastic form this year, with 6 wins already to his name. He has two Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a Fleche Wallone to his name, and he was second in three stages in the recent Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only Contador was climbing better than him. If it does come to a sprint from a largish group the Spaniard could be vulnerable to one or two faster men but is the one they have to beat.
Valverde
Michal ‘Kwiato’ Kwiatowski (Quickstep – 7/1) The young Pole is one of the most exciting talents around. There is nothing this kid cannot do. He’s one of the best young time-triallers around, he can climb and he’ll beat all but the world class sprinters if it comes to a bunch finish. Kwiatowski was 4th in this last year and he’s definitely improved since then. In March he won Strade Bianchi and then wore the leaders’ jersey in Pais Vasco before being eventually outclimbed by Contador, and the month before that he won the GC in Algarve. Likely to be a very short price should it come down to a sprint from a select group.
Kwiatowski
Phillipe ‘Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert (BMC – 12/1) Is it possible we are seeing the true Gilbert again now he’s been relieved of the pressure of having to wear the World Champions’ Rainbow Jersey? If his win in Brabanste Pijl is anything to go by, we could be. His record in this race is scary, and on his day he is untouchable on the sort of finish this race provides. He’s as short as 6/1 everywhere else and VC Bet are taking a bit of a chance with the standout price of 12/1 here.
Gilbert
Simon Gerrans (Orica – 14/1) Gerrans has had two podium finishes in this, including 3rd place last year. He did lots of work for Bling Matthews on Wednesday, and he should have a team happy to work for him. Gerrans isn’t often far away when he decides he is going to win a race, and he has all the qualities needed to win this, stamina, climbing ability and a superb fast finish.
Gerrans
Tom Jelte Slagter (Garmin – 17/1) Another young star on the rise. Won the Santos Tour Down Under last year, and showed that form was no flash in the pan with two on-the-premises rides in Paris-Nice this year in stages with a similar profile to this. A very fast finisher on short-sharp climbs, doesn’t have the CV in big races of some of the other market principles but is clearly afraid of no-one and looks to have the goods to be a threat if Dan Martin and co are riding for him.
Slagter
Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha -16/1) As short as 6/1 in places, the 18/1 Paddy Power are offering about the most explosive climber in the race looks an attractive proposition. Purito is one of the most popular riders around, and he’ll have plenty of fans on the Cauberg desperate for the Spaniard to add to his extensive palmares that includes 2 Lombardias, a Fleche Wallone, 8 stages of La Vuelta, a Giro podium and a 2nd in the World Road Race last year.
Rodriguez
Errrrrr.....sorry, that should have been PURITO Rodriguez
Ben ‘Swifty’ Swift (Sky 28/1) One of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Ben Swift as a climber/puncher. Swifty astounded most with his third in Milan-San Remo after being up with the pace for most of the afternoon. He then showed that form was no fluke with a stage win in Coppi e Bartali, a 2nd place in Vais Pasco and then bettered that three days later with an astonishing win on a stage full of climbs when he had several of these rivals like Valverde, Kwiatowski and Slagter in his wake, not to mention Contador! His new lease of life makes him a live chance for a profile like this. If he gets over the Cauberg the third time and is anywhere near the front, he could complete a miraculous rags-to-riches journey and become the latest British cyclist to join the big names at the top table.
Swift
Diego Ulissi (Lampre 30/1) Another of the young pretenders, Ulissi is building a massive reputation as a climber and GC rider. He’s another one with a fast-finish, and has a real tactical brain, and as such could be a real threat here.
Diego Ulissi
Rui Costa (Lampre 40/1) If Ulissi doesn’t have the legs then Lampre have the luxury of the World Champion. Costa won two stages of the Tour de France last year, the GC at the Tour de Suisse and then the World Championship. With his climbing ability, stamina and ability to get in the right moves he must be at least an outside contender for this. There is a certain similarity between the Florence course where Costa won the Rainbow Jersey and the Amstel course, and it would be fantastic to see Costa gain his first win in the Champ’s Jersey here.
Rui Costa
Wout Poels won a Stage of Vais Pasco and out-rode the best climbers in the world. He has real speed on the shorter climbs and could be an outside punt. Bauke Mollema can climb away from anyone and if he can get away he’ll try to use his excellent time trialling skills to stay away. Roman Kreuziger is the defending challenger and has looked in great shape in recent weeks. As such he seems a bit big at 66/1 but realistically it’s difficult to see any circumstances where he’d be allowed to repeat last year’s escape. Two climbers who would look for a solo win in similar circumstances would be Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal. They’re both available at huge prices, probably because they are not first choice riders for their respective teams, but they could both cause an upset if on form and I’ve had a small play on both each way.
My bets
So many options here in a fascinating puzzle, but I’ll take my chances on:
Gerrans 14/1
Swift 28/1
Nibali 80/1
Hesjedal 100/1
Sunday's Amstel Gold RaceAmstel Gold Race is the latest of Cycling’s Spring Classics, set in Southern Netherlands. After the cobbled classic races like Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix that favoured the peloton’s strongmen, Amstel Gold Race marks the first of the Ardennes Classics which will see the climbers and puncheurs come to prominence.
RouteAmstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are characterised by huge numbers of short, sharp climbs that sap the legs. The profile of this race resembles the bottom jaw of Roald Dahl’s Enormous Crocodile.
ProfileThe Cauberg is the iconic climb associated with this race, and is climbed three times in all, including at finale. Last year the finish was moved a kilometre beyond the Cauberg and the route is the same for 2014. This means there is an intriguing tactical element to the race. Will the race be held together by teams with fast finishers, or will climbers attack, escape on the climb and stay away until the finish?
Riders Climbing the Cauberg and the Cauberg's ProfileLast year, 66/1 winner Roman Kreuziger escaped the bunch and stayed away to win solo. Behind him there was a sprint from a select group. Watch the 2013 Amstel Gold finishing kilometres here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI
This year’s race has a stellar cast. We have top quality climbers, the world’s best punchers, some fast men and some of the very best up-and-coming talent around. This all points towards an incredible race on Sunday.
Amstel Gold Race: Last year’s top ten (2013)
1. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff in 6-35-21
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar at 22secs
3. Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
4. Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-QuickStep
5. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing
6. Sergio Henao (Col) Sky
7. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM
8. Pieter Weening (Ned) Orica-GreenEdge
9. Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
10. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Blanco all same time
Amstel Gold Race: Recent winners
2013 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff
2012 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2010 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2009 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Team Katusha
2008 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre
2007 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner
2006 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC
2005 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas-Bianchi
2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner
Amstel Gold Race 2014: Climbs
1. Slingerberg (105m, 9.4km)
2. Adsteeg (110m, 14.1km)
3. Lange Raarberg (140m, 22.3km)
4. Bergseweg (175m, 38km)
5. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 49.7km)
6. Cauberg (140m, 54.1km)
7. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 58.6km)
8. Wolfsberg (170m, 78.1km)
9. Loorberg (215m, 81.2km)
10. Schweibergerweg (220m, 92.5km)
11. Camerig (273m, 98.9km)
12. Drielandenpunt (320m, 109.5km)
13. Gemmenich (265m, 114km)
14. Vijlenerbos (276m, 117.8km)
15. Eperheide (224m, 126.5km)
16. Gulpenerberg (151m, 135.1km)
17. Plettenberg (141m, 138.6km)
18. Eijserweg (202m, 140.7km)
19. Huls (216m, 145.2km)
20. Vrakelberg (183m, 150.5km)
21. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 158.2km)
22. Cauberg (140m, 162.6km)
23. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 167.2km)
24. Bemelerberg (140m, 179.9km)
25. Loorberg (215m, 195.2km)
26. Gulpenerberg (151m, 204.7km)
27. Kruisberg (165m, 210.1km)
28. Eijserbosweg (195m, 212km)
29. Fromberg (165m, 215.8km)
30. Keutenberg (175m, 220.3km)
31. Cauberg (140m, 230.3km)
32. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 234.9km)
33. Bemelerberg (140m, 243.6km)
34. Cauberg (140m, 248.8km)
Amstel Gold Race: Contenders
All prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner
Alejandro ‘El Bala’ Valverde (Movistar 9/2) Second last year, winning the bunch sprint behind Kreuziger, Valverde has been in fantastic form this year, with 6 wins already to his name. He has two Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a Fleche Wallone to his name, and he was second in three stages in the recent Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only Contador was climbing better than him. If it does come to a sprint from a largish group the Spaniard could be vulnerable to one or two faster men but is the one they have to beat.
ValverdeMichal ‘Kwiato’ Kwiatowski (Quickstep – 7/1) The young Pole is one of the most exciting talents around. There is nothing this kid cannot do. He’s one of the best young time-triallers around, he can climb and he’ll beat all but the world class sprinters if it comes to a bunch finish. Kwiatowski was 4th in this last year and he’s definitely improved since then. In March he won Strade Bianchi and then wore the leaders’ jersey in Pais Vasco before being eventually outclimbed by Contador, and the month before that he won the GC in Algarve. Likely to be a very short price should it come down to a sprint from a select group.
KwiatowskiPhillipe ‘Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert (BMC – 12/1) Is it possible we are seeing the true Gilbert again now he’s been relieved of the pressure of having to wear the World Champions’ Rainbow Jersey? If his win in Brabanste Pijl is anything to go by, we could be. His record in this race is scary, and on his day he is untouchable on the sort of finish this race provides. He’s as short as 6/1 everywhere else and VC Bet are taking a bit of a chance with the standout price of 12/1 here.
GilbertSimon Gerrans (Orica – 14/1) Gerrans has had two podium finishes in this, including 3rd place last year. He did lots of work for Bling Matthews on Wednesday, and he should have a team happy to work for him. Gerrans isn’t often far away when he decides he is going to win a race, and he has all the qualities needed to win this, stamina, climbing ability and a superb fast finish.
GerransTom Jelte Slagter (Garmin – 17/1) Another young star on the rise. Won the Santos Tour Down Under last year, and showed that form was no flash in the pan with two on-the-premises rides in Paris-Nice this year in stages with a similar profile to this. A very fast finisher on short-sharp climbs, doesn’t have the CV in big races of some of the other market principles but is clearly afraid of no-one and looks to have the goods to be a threat if Dan Martin and co are riding for him.
SlagterJoaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha -16/1) As short as 6/1 in places, the 18/1 Paddy Power are offering about the most explosive climber in the race looks an attractive proposition. Purito is one of the most popular riders around, and he’ll have plenty of fans on the Cauberg desperate for the Spaniard to add to his extensive palmares that includes 2 Lombardias, a Fleche Wallone, 8 stages of La Vuelta, a Giro podium and a 2nd in the World Road Race last year.
RodriguezErrrrrr.....sorry, that should have been PURITO RodriguezBen ‘Swifty’ Swift (Sky 28/1) One of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Ben Swift as a climber/puncher. Swifty astounded most with his third in Milan-San Remo after being up with the pace for most of the afternoon. He then showed that form was no fluke with a stage win in Coppi e Bartali, a 2nd place in Vais Pasco and then bettered that three days later with an astonishing win on a stage full of climbs when he had several of these rivals like Valverde, Kwiatowski and Slagter in his wake, not to mention Contador! His new lease of life makes him a live chance for a profile like this. If he gets over the Cauberg the third time and is anywhere near the front, he could complete a miraculous rags-to-riches journey and become the latest British cyclist to join the big names at the top table.
SwiftDiego Ulissi (Lampre 30/1) Another of the young pretenders, Ulissi is building a massive reputation as a climber and GC rider. He’s another one with a fast-finish, and has a real tactical brain, and as such could be a real threat here.
Diego UlissiRui Costa (Lampre 40/1) If Ulissi doesn’t have the legs then Lampre have the luxury of the World Champion. Costa won two stages of the Tour de France last year, the GC at the Tour de Suisse and then the World Championship. With his climbing ability, stamina and ability to get in the right moves he must be at least an outside contender for this. There is a certain similarity between the Florence course where Costa won the Rainbow Jersey and the Amstel course, and it would be fantastic to see Costa gain his first win in the Champ’s Jersey here.
Rui CostaWout Poels won a Stage of Vais Pasco and out-rode the best climbers in the world. He has real speed on the shorter climbs and could be an outside punt. Bauke Mollema can climb away from anyone and if he can get away he’ll try to use his excellent time trialling skills to stay away. Roman Kreuziger is the defending challenger and has looked in great shape in recent weeks. As such he seems a bit big at 66/1 but realistically it’s difficult to see any circumstances where he’d be allowed to repeat last year’s escape. Two climbers who would look for a solo win in similar circumstances would be Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal. They’re both available at huge prices, probably because they are not first choice riders for their respective teams, but they could both cause an upset if on form and I’ve had a small play on both each way.
My bets
So many options here in a fascinating puzzle, but I’ll take my chances on:
Gerrans 14/1
Swift 28/1
Nibali 80/1
Hesjedal 100/1
could any enthusiast want any more in a preview, very impressive, thanks MC
Yes, good stuff MC, makes my essay appear humdrum in comparison. 
I took close notice of Swift in San Remo, and had a look at him for here, but some of those wins you mention are quite ordinary. For instance the Coppi e Bartali win was over less than 100 kms. Stage 5 in the Basque Country was a 22 man finish and came after a long descent, although it was a hard stage. First and only start at this race was in 2009 for 56th, although he was a neo-pro I believe? Very short for lots of question marks, so I dismissed his chances. I am warming to Nibali, and it helps that his price is drifting, but just can't seem to pull the trigger. SP.
I took close notice of Swift in San Remo, and had a look at him for here, but some of those wins you mention are quite ordinary. For instance the Coppi e Bartali win was over less than 100 kms. Stage 5 in the Basque Country was a 22 man finish and came after a long descent, although it was a hard stage. First and only start at this race was in 2009 for 56th, although he was a neo-pro I believe? Very short for lots of question marks, so I dismissed his chances. I am warming to Nibali, and it helps that his price is drifting, but just can't seem to pull the trigger. SP.
Excellent write ups from both SP and MC - really insightful, informative and very enjoyable
For what it's worth I'm sticking with Gilbert. I have Purito on my mind for Liege Bastogne Liege after his narrow miss in the race last year
Racing Post puts up
S Gerrans 1pt e/w @ 14/1
B Swift 1pt e/w @ 28/1
S Gerrans 1pt e/w @ 14/1
B Swift 1pt e/w @ 28/1
Must have read my preview 
Break
Pim Ligthart
Lotto Belisol
Pirmin Lang
IAM Cycling
Alexey Lutsenko
Astana Pro Team
Nicola Boem
Bardiani-CSF
James Van Landschoot
Wanty - Groupe Gobert
Manuel Belletti
Androni Giocattoli
Preben Van Hecke
Topsport Vlaanderen - Baloise
Matej Mohoric
Cannondale
Christophe Riblon
AG2R La Mondiale
Rory Sutherland
Tinkoff-Saxo
Peloton
at 14:41
Break
Pim Ligthart
Lotto Belisol
Pirmin Lang
IAM Cycling
Alexey Lutsenko
Astana Pro Team
Nicola Boem
Bardiani-CSF
James Van Landschoot
Wanty - Groupe Gobert
Manuel Belletti
Androni Giocattoli
Preben Van Hecke
Topsport Vlaanderen - Baloise
Matej Mohoric
Cannondale
Christophe Riblon
AG2R La Mondiale
Rory Sutherland
Tinkoff-Saxo
Peloton
at 14:41
Wonder when Schleck will find the stuff Bertie's on this season...
Martin shouldered into a bush by Kwiatowski. Looks like he'll get back on but that surely rules him out of contention.
Voeckler goes.
Voeckler goes.
30k to go. Cauberg for the 3rd and penultimate time. Kolobnev and Leukemans got across to the break from the look of it.
Astana got three on the front, Fuglsang, Nibali & Iglinsky. We're going to see a few attacks in a minute...
Many of the principles up there, Gilbert, Gerrans, Mollema, Kwiatowski
Brilliant by Gilbert. Once he got rid of the rainbow jersey he has come back to his very best.
4th Valverde
5th Kwiatowski
6th Geschke
7th Mollema
8th Gasparotto
9th Moreno
10th Arashiro
Onto Fleche Wallone & LBL
5th Kwiatowski
6th Geschke
7th Mollema
8th Gasparotto
9th Moreno
10th Arashiro
Onto Fleche Wallone & LBL
great to see Gilbert back to his best - chapeau
happy with top 10 finish for Gasparotto and very prominent showing from Leukemans
happy with top 10 finish for Gasparotto and very prominent showing from Leukemans
Which bookie pays on top-10 and prominent showings?
Unlucky for Tony Martin, I was hopeful he might have covered the break the way Stybar did for OPQ, since he was playing such a forward role, but he wasn't there and that break was never going to stay away in any case, even though Kolobnev was given free reign and looked highly dangerous. This 2012 Worlds course really does work beautifully. Very happy with Gerrans' ride, could've not bothered for a place, but always the honest performer he stuck on hard. Aussie spirit! Safe to say that the 'Boar of the Ardennes' is back -- as many expected. Nibal really looks good for the La Fleche Wallonne, since it doesn't look like he is in Liege for the start. Need to look into that some more, but he certainly showed some form. SP.
I like to concentrate on the race when it's on, but another excellent thread MC, and keeping it going throughout the race for the forum.
SP.
SP.
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