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Another great write-up SP. The value in Gilbert has surely gone but he deserves to be among the favourites, who can forget his heartbreaking ride in Stage 6 of last year's Vuelta?
What are your views on Bjorn Leukemans who does consistently well here or is he too old to go for overall victory? The nature of this race means it is one of the hardest races of the year to predict , so hard to narrow the field because it can be won by a climber, a rouleur, or a sprinter who can hang on up the Cauberg. Looking forward to MC's post |
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Will Astana all be riding for Enrico Gasparotto?
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cedar -- I think you've hit the nail on the head with respect to Leukemans. He has obviously been riding quite consistently this season, but is in the team to offer experience and guidance to their younger riders, I would suggest. It's hard to think that he has been saving his best result in such a race when halfway out-the-door to retirement. Additionally, 80/1 seems small for a rider who hasn't won this season and hasn't won a big classic in his career. Then again, I didn't think much of your Tjallingi pick in Roubaix, and he actually had a good forward showing for a large part of the race, so go with your gut mate, but I can't have him.
Astana may like Nibali for this even though Gasparotto won it in 2012. I believe Nibali has the suitable characteristics for the way this race is now staged, and even though he hasn't raced since San Remo he responds well to light racing. If he can be less ambitious than he has been in the past, and much more patient, then I would expect a big ride from him. In fact he made my short list, but can't tip them all. 66/1 is a cracking price for a proven workhorse, but you need some firm belief in him, and since I don't I won't back him. Good luck, SP |
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I think the play with Gilbert was to follow Clay, in backing him for this on the back of a strong ride in the Brabant Arrow. Pity Clay wasn't his articulate best.
Even a small position at 14/1 would have proved to be a good foundation to build on prior to this. SP. |
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Amstel Gold Race
Sunday's Amstel Gold RaceAmstel Gold Race is the latest of Cycling’s Spring Classics, set in Southern Netherlands. After the cobbled classic races like Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix that favoured the peloton’s strongmen, Amstel Gold Race marks the first of the Ardennes Classics which will see the climbers and puncheurs come to prominence. RouteAmstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are characterised by huge numbers of short, sharp climbs that sap the legs. The profile of this race resembles the bottom jaw of Roald Dahl’s Enormous Crocodile. ProfileThe Cauberg is the iconic climb associated with this race, and is climbed three times in all, including at finale. Last year the finish was moved a kilometre beyond the Cauberg and the route is the same for 2014. This means there is an intriguing tactical element to the race. Will the race be held together by teams with fast finishers, or will climbers attack, escape on the climb and stay away until the finish? ![]() Riders Climbing the Cauberg and the Cauberg's ProfileLast year, 66/1 winner Roman Kreuziger escaped the bunch and stayed away to win solo. Behind him there was a sprint from a select group. Watch the 2013 Amstel Gold finishing kilometres here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI This year’s race has a stellar cast. We have top quality climbers, the world’s best punchers, some fast men and some of the very best up-and-coming talent around. This all points towards an incredible race on Sunday. Amstel Gold Race: Last year’s top ten (2013) 1. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff in 6-35-21 2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar at 22secs 3. Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge 4. Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 5. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing 6. Sergio Henao (Col) Sky 7. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM 8. Pieter Weening (Ned) Orica-GreenEdge 9. Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana 10. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Blanco all same time Amstel Gold Race: Recent winners 2013 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Saxo-Tinkoff 2012 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Astana 2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 2010 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 2009 Sergei Ivanov (Rus) Team Katusha 2008 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 2007 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner 2006 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 2005 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas-Bianchi 2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner Amstel Gold Race 2014: Climbs 1. Slingerberg (105m, 9.4km) 2. Adsteeg (110m, 14.1km) 3. Lange Raarberg (140m, 22.3km) 4. Bergseweg (175m, 38km) 5. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 49.7km) 6. Cauberg (140m, 54.1km) 7. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 58.6km) 8. Wolfsberg (170m, 78.1km) 9. Loorberg (215m, 81.2km) 10. Schweibergerweg (220m, 92.5km) 11. Camerig (273m, 98.9km) 12. Drielandenpunt (320m, 109.5km) 13. Gemmenich (265m, 114km) 14. Vijlenerbos (276m, 117.8km) 15. Eperheide (224m, 126.5km) 16. Gulpenerberg (151m, 135.1km) 17. Plettenberg (141m, 138.6km) 18. Eijserweg (202m, 140.7km) 19. Huls (216m, 145.2km) 20. Vrakelberg (183m, 150.5km) 21. Sibbergrubbe (153m, 158.2km) 22. Cauberg (140m, 162.6km) 23. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 167.2km) 24. Bemelerberg (140m, 179.9km) 25. Loorberg (215m, 195.2km) 26. Gulpenerberg (151m, 204.7km) 27. Kruisberg (165m, 210.1km) 28. Eijserbosweg (195m, 212km) 29. Fromberg (165m, 215.8km) 30. Keutenberg (175m, 220.3km) 31. Cauberg (140m, 230.3km) 32. Geulhemmerberg (130m, 234.9km) 33. Bemelerberg (140m, 243.6km) 34. Cauberg (140m, 248.8km) Amstel Gold Race: Contenders All prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner Alejandro ‘El Bala’ Valverde (Movistar 9/2) Second last year, winning the bunch sprint behind Kreuziger, Valverde has been in fantastic form this year, with 6 wins already to his name. He has two Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a Fleche Wallone to his name, and he was second in three stages in the recent Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only Contador was climbing better than him. If it does come to a sprint from a largish group the Spaniard could be vulnerable to one or two faster men but is the one they have to beat. ValverdeMichal ‘Kwiato’ Kwiatowski (Quickstep – 7/1) The young Pole is one of the most exciting talents around. There is nothing this kid cannot do. He’s one of the best young time-triallers around, he can climb and he’ll beat all but the world class sprinters if it comes to a bunch finish. Kwiatowski was 4th in this last year and he’s definitely improved since then. In March he won Strade Bianchi and then wore the leaders’ jersey in Pais Vasco before being eventually outclimbed by Contador, and the month before that he won the GC in Algarve. Likely to be a very short price should it come down to a sprint from a select group. KwiatowskiPhillipe ‘Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert (BMC – 12/1) Is it possible we are seeing the true Gilbert again now he’s been relieved of the pressure of having to wear the World Champions’ Rainbow Jersey? If his win in Brabanste Pijl is anything to go by, we could be. His record in this race is scary, and on his day he is untouchable on the sort of finish this race provides. He’s as short as 6/1 everywhere else and VC Bet are taking a bit of a chance with the standout price of 12/1 here. GilbertSimon Gerrans (Orica – 14/1) Gerrans has had two podium finishes in this, including 3rd place last year. He did lots of work for Bling Matthews on Wednesday, and he should have a team happy to work for him. Gerrans isn’t often far away when he decides he is going to win a race, and he has all the qualities needed to win this, stamina, climbing ability and a superb fast finish. GerransTom Jelte Slagter (Garmin – 17/1) Another young star on the rise. Won the Santos Tour Down Under last year, and showed that form was no flash in the pan with two on-the-premises rides in Paris-Nice this year in stages with a similar profile to this. A very fast finisher on short-sharp climbs, doesn’t have the CV in big races of some of the other market principles but is clearly afraid of no-one and looks to have the goods to be a threat if Dan Martin and co are riding for him. SlagterJoaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (Katusha -16/1) As short as 6/1 in places, the 18/1 Paddy Power are offering about the most explosive climber in the race looks an attractive proposition. Purito is one of the most popular riders around, and he’ll have plenty of fans on the Cauberg desperate for the Spaniard to add to his extensive palmares that includes 2 Lombardias, a Fleche Wallone, 8 stages of La Vuelta, a Giro podium and a 2nd in the World Road Race last year. Rodriguez Errrrrr.....sorry, that should have been PURITO RodriguezBen ‘Swifty’ Swift (Sky 28/1) One of the stories of the season has been the emergence of Ben Swift as a climber/puncher. Swifty astounded most with his third in Milan-San Remo after being up with the pace for most of the afternoon. He then showed that form was no fluke with a stage win in Coppi e Bartali, a 2nd place in Vais Pasco and then bettered that three days later with an astonishing win on a stage full of climbs when he had several of these rivals like Valverde, Kwiatowski and Slagter in his wake, not to mention Contador! His new lease of life makes him a live chance for a profile like this. If he gets over the Cauberg the third time and is anywhere near the front, he could complete a miraculous rags-to-riches journey and become the latest British cyclist to join the big names at the top table. SwiftDiego Ulissi (Lampre 30/1) Another of the young pretenders, Ulissi is building a massive reputation as a climber and GC rider. He’s another one with a fast-finish, and has a real tactical brain, and as such could be a real threat here. Diego UlissiRui Costa (Lampre 40/1) If Ulissi doesn’t have the legs then Lampre have the luxury of the World Champion. Costa won two stages of the Tour de France last year, the GC at the Tour de Suisse and then the World Championship. With his climbing ability, stamina and ability to get in the right moves he must be at least an outside contender for this. There is a certain similarity between the Florence course where Costa won the Rainbow Jersey and the Amstel course, and it would be fantastic to see Costa gain his first win in the Champ’s Jersey here. Rui CostaWout Poels won a Stage of Vais Pasco and out-rode the best climbers in the world. He has real speed on the shorter climbs and could be an outside punt. Bauke Mollema can climb away from anyone and if he can get away he’ll try to use his excellent time trialling skills to stay away. Roman Kreuziger is the defending challenger and has looked in great shape in recent weeks. As such he seems a bit big at 66/1 but realistically it’s difficult to see any circumstances where he’d be allowed to repeat last year’s escape. Two climbers who would look for a solo win in similar circumstances would be Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal. They’re both available at huge prices, probably because they are not first choice riders for their respective teams, but they could both cause an upset if on form and I’ve had a small play on both each way. My bets So many options here in a fascinating puzzle, but I’ll take my chances on: Gerrans 14/1 Swift 28/1 Nibali 80/1 Hesjedal 100/1 |
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could any enthusiast want any more in a preview, very impressive, thanks MC
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Yes, good stuff MC, makes my essay appear humdrum in comparison.
![]() I took close notice of Swift in San Remo, and had a look at him for here, but some of those wins you mention are quite ordinary. For instance the Coppi e Bartali win was over less than 100 kms. Stage 5 in the Basque Country was a 22 man finish and came after a long descent, although it was a hard stage. First and only start at this race was in 2009 for 56th, although he was a neo-pro I believe? Very short for lots of question marks, so I dismissed his chances. I am warming to Nibali, and it helps that his price is drifting, but just can't seem to pull the trigger. SP. |
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Excellent write ups from both SP and MC - really insightful, informative and very enjoyable
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For what it's worth I'm sticking with Gilbert. I have Purito on my mind for Liege Bastogne Liege after his narrow miss in the race last year
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Racing Post puts up
S Gerrans 1pt e/w @ 14/1 B Swift 1pt e/w @ 28/1 |
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Must have read my preview
![]() Break Pim Ligthart Lotto Belisol Pirmin Lang IAM Cycling Alexey Lutsenko Astana Pro Team Nicola Boem Bardiani-CSF James Van Landschoot Wanty - Groupe Gobert Manuel Belletti Androni Giocattoli Preben Van Hecke Topsport Vlaanderen - Baloise Matej Mohoric Cannondale Christophe Riblon AG2R La Mondiale Rory Sutherland Tinkoff-Saxo Peloton at 14:41 |
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Purito abandons after crash
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think it is Maryck in the break not Sutherland
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Nicki Sorensen abandons
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Andy Schleck abandons, (surprised anyone noticed)
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Wonder when Schleck will find the stuff Bertie's on this season...
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Martin shouldered into a bush by Kwiatowski. Looks like he'll get back on but that surely rules him out of contention.
Voeckler goes. |
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Stybar, Van Avarmaet, Fuglsang, Voeckler, Weening
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and Tim Wellens
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30k to go. Cauberg for the 3rd and penultimate time. Kolobnev and Leukemans got across to the break from the look of it.
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Astana got three on the front, Fuglsang, Nibali & Iglinsky. We're going to see a few attacks in a minute...
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Think there's still 50+ in the main group
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Dabble on Fuglsang at 30s, doesn't mind going long
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Doesn't look like Swift is still in the main peloton
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Many of the principles up there, Gilbert, Gerrans, Mollema, Kwiatowski
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Gilbert, Kwia, Gerrans, Valverde go
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Gilbert decent gap to Gerrans, Valverde, Kwiakowski
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Gilbert wins Amstel Gold
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Brilliant by Gilbert. Once he got rid of the rainbow jersey he has come back to his very best.
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Vanendert 2nd
Gerrans 3rd |
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Almost identical to 2012 World Champs
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4th Valverde
5th Kwiatowski 6th Geschke 7th Mollema 8th Gasparotto 9th Moreno 10th Arashiro Onto Fleche Wallone & LBL |
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great to see Gilbert back to his best - chapeau
happy with top 10 finish for Gasparotto and very prominent showing from Leukemans |
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Which bookie pays on top-10 and prominent showings?
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Unlucky for Tony Martin, I was hopeful he might have covered the break the way Stybar did for OPQ, since he was playing such a forward role, but he wasn't there and that break was never going to stay away in any case, even though Kolobnev was given free reign and looked highly dangerous. This 2012 Worlds course really does work beautifully. Very happy with Gerrans' ride, could've not bothered for a place, but always the honest performer he stuck on hard. Aussie spirit! Safe to say that the 'Boar of the Ardennes' is back -- as many expected. Nibal really looks good for the La Fleche Wallonne, since it doesn't look like he is in Liege for the start. Need to look into that some more, but he certainly showed some form. SP.
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I like to concentrate on the race when it's on, but another excellent thread MC, and keeping it going throughout the race for the forum.
SP. |