Brabanste Pijl - Wednesday

I always feel AG suits Gilbert down to a tee. Have backed him before he, hopefully, wins this on Wednesday

Since its 2010 start date change to the Wednesday before Amstel Gold Race, WSC SPORTY RED have attempted to re-brand this race as the Ardennes classics opener, however it is still being seen as the final part of the Flanders Classics races, so it is quite confusing in that regard. I’m not a great fan of the Brabant Arrow, and won’t be getting involved in anything beyond a simple bet for interest sake, and seeing how some of the names look for the next three big races.

Some climbs amongst mainly straight and flat roads, with a similar profile to last year’s race.

Sonny Colbrelli is an exciting young talent from Italy, who is knocking on the door of his first ever win as a professional. It has been said that he has the similar characteristics of John Degenkolb, although it appears to me that he does ride much lighter and is a shade shorter than the German sprinter. Also, in three of his highly impressive six top-5 results this year, he has finished amongst punchy climbers such as Valverde and Ulissi, so perhaps it might be the case that he doesn’t have his style or shape worked-out yet? Indeed, when asked a similar question; he answered, “I’m finding my position in pro cycling. I think I’m not a sprinter, but a fast rider who can compete for victory in a group of 80/100 riders, so not for bunch sprints.”

He just missed a seventh top-5 result when he finished in sixth place in Milan-San Remo, so he can certainly survive a race of 200 kms. He finished twelfth on debut the year before in MSR, so he is clearly improving in strides.

28/1 (Unibet, 888Sport) Should be 67/1.

Good luck to all,
SP

Impey at 40/1 (place terms) looks a better price than Gerrans, perhaps?
Geschke and Ciolek look better prices at 25/1 (place terms) than Gilbert, perhaps?

SP

Gerrans 9/1 win only
Poels 33/1 ew
Martin 50/1 ew

my three bets for this, small stakes though

That was the Gilbert of old! Well done Clay, I believe you had backed him here? SP

Well done Clay, didnt really think Gilbert had the form to win that but he did bloody well there.

Neither me MC, I went all the way back to Tirreno-Adriatico stage 3, when Sagan got his own back on Kwiatkowski from white roads, and it was a tough ramp up to the finish which looked perfect for the Gilbert of old to win on, but as soon as he got to the front he didn't look convincing, that is to say he didn't have that impressive acceleration, and whilst he did fade, he did manage to scrape together a fourth-place finish on the line, so perhaps discounted his effort there. However, in any case, here he put in a lot of late work in an attempt to join the six leaders and was stuck in no man's land, before getting back into the peloton. Now, I was convinced that it was lights out for him, but he found a way to get to the front in the finale and timed his kick very well, after riding so hard just a few kms earlier. This would suggest that he has some very good form back indeed, and there is no surprise to the significant shortening in his price for Amstel Gold Race, next. But, let's not forget that Gerrans did an equally large amount of work, and while he finished back in the race some 40 secs down, he will be improved by this race, and 14/1 is nearly acceptable, but would obviously prefer 18/1.

In relation to Amstel Gold Race, have been working on something rather special hopefully, so just need to put the preview together. I've already got on, so am willing to reveal that I've backed Tony Martin with Paddypower at 250/1 on an E/W basis. I think that is a cracking price, and am making it my best bet of the season so far. Preview to follow.

Cheers,
SP

I'll have my AGR preview up soonish

I'm ready to go, but will wait until you have it up first. SP.

Just waiting for my photos to get approved

SP and MC - I backed Gilbert for AG on the basis I thought he's go well in Brabanste Pijl and that he would be shorter come Sunday. I always feel AG suits Gilbert and his style.

Yes, that's what I understood, nice move Clay. When I was ready with the preview he was still 12/1, but now getting into nearly unbackable price of 9/1. I agree this race suits him, but perhaps not as much in previous years, since as of last year the finish line no longer comes on top of the Cauberg, but nearly 2 kms on. So, even if he attacks on the Cauberg in the big ring like he did in the 2012 Worlds to win, he will face a tough task to keep ahead from the selective chasers, who will know exactly his tricks, and must surely be on his wheel. For instance, I don't see him dropping Purito, since Purito can have a big ring going also, but he would obviously have his measure in a sprint. The 2km run-in to the finish really does make it interesting, and why I don't understand the price for Roman Kreuziger, for instance, he could easily repeat his win from last year, since he is enjoying some seriously good form. GL, SP.

*still* waiting to get photos approved zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz this site's going to the f**king dogs. It used to take 15 minutes, it's almost been 24 hours.

I appreciate your efforts, MC. SP.