London Marathon?

The last two years of the London Marathon has been kind to me getting decent bets down on both winners - Kipsang @ 7/1 and Kebede @ 8/1 and I remember with fondness hammering the price of Ndereba from 9/1 into 7/2 when winning the World Championships in 2007. My background is mainly in golf betting and in that field bookmakers know who is going to be backed most weeks as based on course and current form the punters pile in to what generally speaking are artificially low prices. The books know who they will lay no matter what price they go and this is often the basis of how they make their money week in week out. However in some events this can backfire and I think this years London Marathon is a case in question.


We are in an unusual position this year as with Mo Farah running books are all up a few weeks early as there is extra interest and the bookmakers know home interest will see a lot of bets placed. Farah varies in price from 5/2 to 9/2 and that to me says a lot but in all honesty I would make him no lower than 8/1. We have to remember this is his first marathon, many great athletes have failed before him when making the step up in distance. His prep run in New York in the half marathon will have done him no favours as he “fell” during the race and collapsed after the line.


Another runner who I think is artificially short but will have his supporters is Stephen Kiprotich - the World and Olympic Champion has a great pedigree with those wins but they were summer marathons run over very different courses. He would have to run several minutes faster than he has ever done before and last year he could only finish 6th.


Last years renewal was run at a fast early pace and Kebede came through to win by conserving his energy and I can see this years race being run in much the same way. We have the great Haile Gebrselassie setting the pace as they go for a world record and it will be interesting to see who can grind it out.


Personally I think the books have it right making Wilson Kipsang favourite and I make him around 2/1 as well - he is a prolific winner but showed he was vulnerable to last years fast pace when he could only manage 5th - strange as later last year he set a new World Record when winning in Berlin.


I think the huge each way value lies with last years winner Tsegaye Kebede who goes for his third win in the event. It is not easy to defend but Martin Lel did it when he went on to win his third title in 2008. Looking at his recent running history one can see that he rarely runs in any other road races and I think that sets him up well for full marathons - his body knows what’s coming! In the last six years he has run in 14 of them, finished them all, won 6 of them and finished on the podium in an amazing 12 - that is incredible consistency in what is one of the toughest sports in the world. I would make him more of a 3/1 shot and anything over 4/1 with books paying ¼ the odds 3 places you have to say with his podium finish record that is a fine price especially when you build in his overall London record of 2nd, 1st, 5th, 3rd and 1st.

Of the others - Emmanuel Mutai often finds one or two too good for him and his 2011 victory here remains his only major title. Stanley Biwott is still a bit of a dark horse but he blew up last year and I find it strange that people are backing him quite heavily. The only other one I quite like is Geoffrey Mutai who went off a short price last year but picked up a leg injury during the race and retired. He has shown that that injury has been shaken off by winning the New York Marathon in the Fall (beating Kebede into 2nd with Biwott 5th) and then went on to win the New York Half Marathon from Mo Farah a few weeks ago.

It is great to see an event with prices all over the place and I expect to see a lot of further movement before the gun goes - to summarise my bets are as follows

Tsegaye Kebede 2 pts ew 7/1 ¼ 3

Geoffrey Mutai 0.25 pts ew 8/1 or better ¼ 3 (took 10/1 myself)

Zazu - Mutai hadn't been 12/1 for a while with Lads - Oddschecker had a problem with their odds - they cut to 4/1 when he won the New York Half

I quite enjoy betting on the marathon and have backed Geoffrey Mutai at 10s and Ashbero at 14s eway who I think has got a solid chance after finishing 3rd last year.available at 16s now.
I think Kebede will finish in the top 3 or 4 but wouldn't back him at the available prices.He more than often lets a group get away from him before finishing off like a steam train.He will surely trade bigger in play.
Can't have Kipsang at the prices.
I think Mo will struggle in first marathon and for me is a confident place lay.
Emanuel Mutai no consistency.
Might back Biwott for a place as always looks in with a shout and is usually up with the leader until fading badly,hopefully lay off at decent prices.

Hope you all enjoy the race.

I've backed Geoff Mutai and  Mekonnen.

Quite tempted to have a chunky bet on 2.04-2.05 finish time as well


Don't think it being Farahs debut is as big an issue as it's being made out

Doesnt defy the laws of biology at all. He races at 10km but its not like he's a fun runner. Will easily be doing 130-140miles per week.

Bekele debuted in the Marthon last week at Paris - 2.05 and a new course record

Platini Joined: 20 Dec 02
Replies: 7875 11 Apr 14 01:23 
yes but he's not competing against fun runners here. these are world class marathon athletes.
I really think it would be the most superhuman achievement in sport were he to win this.


So does Bekele currently hold that honour?
Its really not that special at all going from 5k/10k to the marathon. He's been building up to this race for 18months+

By lunchtime Sunday he'll more than likely hold every GB record from 1500m to Marathon. That is impressive but...he's African and even NASA would be impressed with the science behind his training. Just look at Rupp



Has anyone looked at the womens race? I backed Dibaba earlier, miles ahead on ability and as mentioned earlier I dont buy into the marathon debut stuff at this level.

Only other lady I like - bit of a dark horse Tadesse 20/1 ew

Needs to improve by at least a minute but been doing that regularly - one of the few unexposed runners who still has improvement in her

1,01 lay on kipsang to 3 gotto be value

that's a frigging good time steve jones set for so long ago
damn impressive 4 a white boy

Mo's gonna have 2 stick 2 the track
unless he can get his handicap right down 4 the marathon!

no value

You say no value but why was Wilson Kipsang 1.40 about 3 minutes ago?

awesome frigging time

expensive Sunday morning

absolute garbage from Farah. Needs to take up a different sport after he finishes with the track because 2.08s aint going to pay the bills

I wouldn't put it past Mo winning gold if he runs in Rio.just look at Kiprotic winning gold at both world and the Olympics.A slower run race with no pace makers would suit Mo down to the ground plus what he learnt today will play a massive part.i was totally against him today but I wouldn't be at the olympics