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Team Time Trial
For me OPQS are all but certainties to win this. The flat course suits them and they look even stronger with Kwiatowski in instead of Boonen. Their only rivals in my eyes are Orica Greenedge, but they look weaker man for man. Sky and BMC should fight Orica for the podium places. Hard to find a bet on this.
Orica each way at 8/1 with Paddy Power is a possible, but I'm going to leave it.
For me OPQS are all but certainties to win this. The flat course suits them and they look even stronger with Kwiatowski in instead of Boonen. Their only rivals in my eyes are Orica Greenedge, but they look weaker man for man. Sky and BMC should fight Orica for the podium places. Hard to find a bet on this.
Orica each way at 8/1 with Paddy Power is a possible, but I'm going to leave it.
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Which country? UCI have a live stream to those countries that don't have a host broadcaster.
Brilliant TTT to watch. I wont put up a spoiler as it took me ages to find a live stream. BBC coverage in the UK is poor, it would be far better if it were still on Eurosport.
Brilliant TTT to watch. I wont put up a spoiler as it took me ages to find a live stream. BBC coverage in the UK is poor, it would be far better if it were still on Eurosport.
Who else is getting incensed about the way some idiot at BF is dragging their heels on getting an Elite Men Road Race market up?? This is just so unprofessional! I've requested a market one week ago, hoping to get some good positions on account of some good data for this event, and still there's nothing! Anyone have better experiences with another place? I'm ready to move someplace else -- this is crap service! I don't usually like to make a fuss, but I'm over being treated like a piece of crap! 
SP.
SP.
Think Spartacus is concentrating more on the road race, as its a classics looking course, with a loop with a sharp climb that they take on a number of times. He is 3-1 fav. The time trial course is much flatter and should suit Wiggins and especially Tony Martin more.
The 11/1 is win only I think. The each way terms are meagre for this, most books showing 1,2 1/3 if they are even taking each way bets.
The 11/1 is win only I think. The each way terms are meagre for this, most books showing 1,2 1/3 if they are even taking each way bets.
I agree with MC1 -- Spartacus is targeting the Road Race. Unlike Gilbert, who is riding everything to find form for the Road Race, Spartacus hasn't entered in anything since his DNF at the Vuelta, except for the TTT, here. I would therefore expect it to be a training ride of some note, but he certainly won't be pushing himself on a course which is made-to-order for Martin, and hoping to get amongst the medals. Even if he is feeling particularly strong out on course, he will throttle-back and ride within himself, perhaps even missing out on bronze.
Yes, the circuit for the Road Race suits Spartacus, but he is essentially confirming his still fairly recent riding-style re-branding, and trying to match Boonen as one of the best Classics riders in the world. He may not have a better chance to do so after the stars fell into place this season with a bag of great Classics results -- Boonen getting injured had some effect -- and so it's quite obvious that an old-hat ITT Rainbow Jersey is no longer in his interest, here.
If we have the race together on the last lap than that tight, right-hand turn onto the short and steep Via Salviati ramp will be very exciting to watch, since it would be expected that that is where the significant, race-winning attack will take place.
Cheers,
SP
Yes, the circuit for the Road Race suits Spartacus, but he is essentially confirming his still fairly recent riding-style re-branding, and trying to match Boonen as one of the best Classics riders in the world. He may not have a better chance to do so after the stars fell into place this season with a bag of great Classics results -- Boonen getting injured had some effect -- and so it's quite obvious that an old-hat ITT Rainbow Jersey is no longer in his interest, here.
If we have the race together on the last lap than that tight, right-hand turn onto the short and steep Via Salviati ramp will be very exciting to watch, since it would be expected that that is where the significant, race-winning attack will take place.
Cheers,
SP
Can anybody give me a good reason why I shouldn't dutch Tony and Wiggo?
CJ70 24 Sep 13 00:38 Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 13,773 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
Can anybody give me a good reason why I shouldn't dutch Tony and Wiggo?
yeah. SPARTACUS!
Can anybody give me a good reason why I shouldn't dutch Tony and Wiggo?
yeah. SPARTACUS!
Tony Martin at 11/10 for the ITT will do me. Think he's just stronger than Wiggo. Cancellara may not even podium 
and I'll take Taylor Phinney for a top 3 place.
In the Road race, I think that 10 climbs of the Fiesole will do for Sagan and Cancellara (+ Gilbert, Boassen Hagen et al). I reckon the climbers will be forced to drive a fierce pace up the climbs because they know its the only way they can get rid of the two favourites. For me its a little bit reminiscent of the way the peloton stopped Cav winning the Olympics by refusing to help bring the break back because they knew it would only result in Cav winning a bunch sprint (the Germans might regret that now having seen Kittel's performances in the Tour) - the peloton will have to join forces and drive a fierce pace to ensure the "sprinters are dropped one by one" as Froome said yesterday.
So, I'm looking at climbers. Nibali was my first instinct, but has the Vuelta taken too much out of him? I would argue that the Worlds were the aim for Nibali this season all along, and that there should be plenty left in the tank, especially if we compare him to two similarly-priced rivals in Purito and Valverde, who also rode the Tour and have thus been on the go since June. Not only that but Nibali has the advantage of a home course, home crowd and full team backing. The Spanish have more potential cards to play (Moreno, Rodriguez, Valverde...even Contador?) but does that mean that they will have divided loyalties. Would Moreno really support Valverde if he was looking strongest for example, if Purito was still around? Nibali has a lot going for him, so I'll take him at 14/1 (4 places) with Coral. My second bet is Chris Froome. I'm not completely convinced he is back in top shape, he got dropped toward the end of the TTT, he isn't competing in the TTT, but this course should suit, again he should have full team support. IF Froome is fit and IF the punchier riders Froome shouldn't be a 33/1 shot on the basis that he has shown he's the best climber around this year.
The other thing to consider is "training and preparation". Personally I feel that certain portions of the peloton are once again ahead of the testers. Italy isn't Spain, so there's a better chance of getting caught if you're cheating, but if people are microdosing EPO in a new way that makes it harder to get caught we have to look out for someone to massively outperform their odds.
Bearing in mind that someone might come from nowhere and win who is worth taking a chance on at a price? A couple that could be worth a poke are Richie Porte at 300/1 (or 200/1 4 places)Tejay Van Garderen at 400/1 (250/1 4 places).
and I'll take Taylor Phinney for a top 3 place.In the Road race, I think that 10 climbs of the Fiesole will do for Sagan and Cancellara (+ Gilbert, Boassen Hagen et al). I reckon the climbers will be forced to drive a fierce pace up the climbs because they know its the only way they can get rid of the two favourites. For me its a little bit reminiscent of the way the peloton stopped Cav winning the Olympics by refusing to help bring the break back because they knew it would only result in Cav winning a bunch sprint (the Germans might regret that now having seen Kittel's performances in the Tour) - the peloton will have to join forces and drive a fierce pace to ensure the "sprinters are dropped one by one" as Froome said yesterday.
So, I'm looking at climbers. Nibali was my first instinct, but has the Vuelta taken too much out of him? I would argue that the Worlds were the aim for Nibali this season all along, and that there should be plenty left in the tank, especially if we compare him to two similarly-priced rivals in Purito and Valverde, who also rode the Tour and have thus been on the go since June. Not only that but Nibali has the advantage of a home course, home crowd and full team backing. The Spanish have more potential cards to play (Moreno, Rodriguez, Valverde...even Contador?) but does that mean that they will have divided loyalties. Would Moreno really support Valverde if he was looking strongest for example, if Purito was still around? Nibali has a lot going for him, so I'll take him at 14/1 (4 places) with Coral. My second bet is Chris Froome. I'm not completely convinced he is back in top shape, he got dropped toward the end of the TTT, he isn't competing in the TTT, but this course should suit, again he should have full team support. IF Froome is fit and IF the punchier riders Froome shouldn't be a 33/1 shot on the basis that he has shown he's the best climber around this year.
The other thing to consider is "training and preparation". Personally I feel that certain portions of the peloton are once again ahead of the testers. Italy isn't Spain, so there's a better chance of getting caught if you're cheating, but if people are microdosing EPO in a new way that makes it harder to get caught we have to look out for someone to massively outperform their odds.
Bearing in mind that someone might come from nowhere and win who is worth taking a chance on at a price? A couple that could be worth a poke are Richie Porte at 300/1 (or 200/1 4 places)Tejay Van Garderen at 400/1 (250/1 4 places).
Great addition MC1 
-- will make closer study of your post before replying.
Many thanks for your great thoughts,
SP
-- will make closer study of your post before replying. Many thanks for your great thoughts,
SP
I think Wiggo beats Martin tomorrow - Wiggo's frame of mind is right - most important for him
Good to read your views MC and you SP as usual.
Though i slightly disagree with you both regarding Cancellara for the TT. I couldn't believe that when the books opened this week, he was 10/1 for the TT and 3/1 for the road race!! Now i'm not saying he is going to win the TT, but in my mind he is way more likely to win the TT than the road race. For that reason I had to back him at 10/1, the price was just too big.
Yes he has been very publicly targeting the road race all year and after his performances in the spring classics, he was probably feeling that this was his best chance of ever winning the road race. He has worked hard to get himself in shape for a real crack at the road race, losing some weight. Thus he then thought he was probably not going to be as competitive over a long TT course being less bulky/strong than usual, but i think he surprised himself by winning the vuelta TT beating Martin, causing a slight change in plan and leading him to think he should ride the TT here after all. I don't think for one moment that Cancellara will do anything but give 110% tomorrow, and he is one of only 3 riders in with any real chance of winning.
As for the road race, as MC has said above this is a very demanding course, and like MC i think all the teams with the best climbers (Italy, Spain, Colombia, GB, USA, etc) will be setting a very high pace every time they go up to Fiesole. I just can't see how Cancellara/Gilbert/Sagan are going to stay with the real climbers if the pace is kept very high every lap. The Italians, the Spanish and the British have all talked about there being a very very small and select group left for the last couple of laps. And thats how i expect it to play out, and i'd be shocked if Cancellara was still in that group.
In conclusion i think the TT will be very close between the big 3, maybe less than 20 seconds between all 3 of them. For that reason Cancellara is the value bet at 10/1. I do have a sneaking suspicion that Wiggins may just edge it and will be backing him if i can get bigger than 2/1
As for the road race, I have backed Rodriguez at 25/1, Quintana 33/1, Porte 300/1, and Talansky 300/1.
Good luck all.
Though i slightly disagree with you both regarding Cancellara for the TT. I couldn't believe that when the books opened this week, he was 10/1 for the TT and 3/1 for the road race!! Now i'm not saying he is going to win the TT, but in my mind he is way more likely to win the TT than the road race. For that reason I had to back him at 10/1, the price was just too big.
Yes he has been very publicly targeting the road race all year and after his performances in the spring classics, he was probably feeling that this was his best chance of ever winning the road race. He has worked hard to get himself in shape for a real crack at the road race, losing some weight. Thus he then thought he was probably not going to be as competitive over a long TT course being less bulky/strong than usual, but i think he surprised himself by winning the vuelta TT beating Martin, causing a slight change in plan and leading him to think he should ride the TT here after all. I don't think for one moment that Cancellara will do anything but give 110% tomorrow, and he is one of only 3 riders in with any real chance of winning.
As for the road race, as MC has said above this is a very demanding course, and like MC i think all the teams with the best climbers (Italy, Spain, Colombia, GB, USA, etc) will be setting a very high pace every time they go up to Fiesole. I just can't see how Cancellara/Gilbert/Sagan are going to stay with the real climbers if the pace is kept very high every lap. The Italians, the Spanish and the British have all talked about there being a very very small and select group left for the last couple of laps. And thats how i expect it to play out, and i'd be shocked if Cancellara was still in that group.
In conclusion i think the TT will be very close between the big 3, maybe less than 20 seconds between all 3 of them. For that reason Cancellara is the value bet at 10/1. I do have a sneaking suspicion that Wiggins may just edge it and will be backing him if i can get bigger than 2/1
As for the road race, I have backed Rodriguez at 25/1, Quintana 33/1, Porte 300/1, and Talansky 300/1.
Good luck all.
Nibali: There was a lot being said by Nibali ahead of the Vuelta, concerning his Worlds preparation and how he'd perform at the Vuelta, so I wouldn't take much of that seriously. Nevertheless, I don't think the Vuelta took so much out of him that it will be a disadvantage, especially against the riders you mentioned whom have been riding since the Tour. Against them he has a clear advantage.
I agree with the home course advantage for Nibali, and would support it further, by showing that the last time a Worlds event was held in Italy, in 2008, not only did an Italian win, in Ballan, but an Italian also finished 2nd in Cunego. Moreover, Nibali has selected a nice tune-up event prior to the Road Race, by finishing 7th, in the GP Costa Degli Etruschi over less than 200kms, it's a good little race, and it's in the similar region of Italy as where the Worlds are taking place. He seems to be taking his preparation very seriously. At 14/1 Nibali represents excellent value, but I haven't committed to him, at this stage.
On the matter of the course: Initially, I wasn't looking for a climber. I thought that Spartacus, Gilbert and others might be suited. I agree, it's not unlikely to see the climbers wanting to raise the pace up, to dwindle down the peloton to manageable proportions for themselves, and the sprinters such as Cavendish are out of the finish in the most likely scenario. So what I'd say, though, is that there are some places to hide for someone like Spartacus, and for him to therefore stick with the climbers.
The last time a top climber won the Worlds, was in 2009 in Switzerland, when Cadel Evans won from Kolobnev, Sammy Sanchez and Purito. Interestingly, Spartacus and Gilbert finished 5th and 6th respectively, and Gerrans managed to squeeze into the top-10 behind Valverde. Now, this course has 1500m less climbing than in Switzerland when Evans won, so I'm not entirely convinced it's such an open and shut case for a climber having all the aces here. I was looking closely at Gilbert, however his preparation is highly neurotic and I cannot have him on that account. But Spartacus is worthy of very close scrutiny and I continue to track him, since he ticks a lot of boxes. The only thing I'd question is how he'll handle the Fiesole, which does appear a little long for him, once the speed really comes on late in the day. It just does look a little long for him doesn't it? And he doesn't deserve favouritism at all on that score, and so I'm leaning away from him at this stage, but haven't discounted him entirely as yet.
Don't like Froome at all. Have to be a fan, since there are so many unanswered questions left open.
Porte over Van Garderen, but I don't like either. I do appreciate you're looking for big value, but 1K is more appropriate. As would be appropriate for Chris Anker Sorenson.
I don't understand the huge money coming for Sagan? If he continues to come in, he may start favourite, and then he becomes very good value for a lay, I believe.
Cheers,
SP
I agree with the home course advantage for Nibali, and would support it further, by showing that the last time a Worlds event was held in Italy, in 2008, not only did an Italian win, in Ballan, but an Italian also finished 2nd in Cunego. Moreover, Nibali has selected a nice tune-up event prior to the Road Race, by finishing 7th, in the GP Costa Degli Etruschi over less than 200kms, it's a good little race, and it's in the similar region of Italy as where the Worlds are taking place. He seems to be taking his preparation very seriously. At 14/1 Nibali represents excellent value, but I haven't committed to him, at this stage.
On the matter of the course: Initially, I wasn't looking for a climber. I thought that Spartacus, Gilbert and others might be suited. I agree, it's not unlikely to see the climbers wanting to raise the pace up, to dwindle down the peloton to manageable proportions for themselves, and the sprinters such as Cavendish are out of the finish in the most likely scenario. So what I'd say, though, is that there are some places to hide for someone like Spartacus, and for him to therefore stick with the climbers.
The last time a top climber won the Worlds, was in 2009 in Switzerland, when Cadel Evans won from Kolobnev, Sammy Sanchez and Purito. Interestingly, Spartacus and Gilbert finished 5th and 6th respectively, and Gerrans managed to squeeze into the top-10 behind Valverde. Now, this course has 1500m less climbing than in Switzerland when Evans won, so I'm not entirely convinced it's such an open and shut case for a climber having all the aces here. I was looking closely at Gilbert, however his preparation is highly neurotic and I cannot have him on that account. But Spartacus is worthy of very close scrutiny and I continue to track him, since he ticks a lot of boxes. The only thing I'd question is how he'll handle the Fiesole, which does appear a little long for him, once the speed really comes on late in the day. It just does look a little long for him doesn't it? And he doesn't deserve favouritism at all on that score, and so I'm leaning away from him at this stage, but haven't discounted him entirely as yet.
Don't like Froome at all. Have to be a fan, since there are so many unanswered questions left open.
Porte over Van Garderen, but I don't like either. I do appreciate you're looking for big value, but 1K is more appropriate. As would be appropriate for Chris Anker Sorenson.
I don't understand the huge money coming for Sagan? If he continues to come in, he may start favourite, and then he becomes very good value for a lay, I believe.
Cheers,
SP
Just waiting on one rider and I'm all set for tomorrow.
This course is the ideal course for one person, flat as a pancake and non-technical. It's made for the big engine grafters and there was none bigger than Big Bert circa 2009. He hasn't done anything for the last few years and we can all speculate why that may be but he's out of contract at the end of the season and will go all out for a good result here to get a ride for next year. He could be completely washed up but one thing we do know is he'll be riding a gear the size of a small town. At 500/1 its worth a few quid as a trading option.
As on a previous post I've dutched Wiggins and Tony as I can't see anyone else realistically challenging on this course. I give Tony the edge but that is reflected in the current prices.
Layed Cancellara for the podium and put in a cheeky request that bookies price up Martin catching Cancellara out on the road. At 1m30 intervals it certainly isn't impossible if unlikely. Both Wiggins and Martin have had the edge on Cancellara in flat TT's for the last few years and I don't see that changing, especially as Cancellara looks to have made a trade off to improve his climbing abilities.
RR markets are up on Betfair with no liquidity as yet.
This course is the ideal course for one person, flat as a pancake and non-technical. It's made for the big engine grafters and there was none bigger than Big Bert circa 2009. He hasn't done anything for the last few years and we can all speculate why that may be but he's out of contract at the end of the season and will go all out for a good result here to get a ride for next year. He could be completely washed up but one thing we do know is he'll be riding a gear the size of a small town. At 500/1 its worth a few quid as a trading option.
As on a previous post I've dutched Wiggins and Tony as I can't see anyone else realistically challenging on this course. I give Tony the edge but that is reflected in the current prices.
Layed Cancellara for the podium and put in a cheeky request that bookies price up Martin catching Cancellara out on the road. At 1m30 intervals it certainly isn't impossible if unlikely. Both Wiggins and Martin have had the edge on Cancellara in flat TT's for the last few years and I don't see that changing, especially as Cancellara looks to have made a trade off to improve his climbing abilities.
RR markets are up on Betfair with no liquidity as yet.
Looks like Wiggins and Martin are about to flip flop.
I've picked up my last rider. Rohan Dennis at 200's I expect either he or Grabsch to be the early leader.
I've picked up my last rider. Rohan Dennis at 200's I expect either he or Grabsch to be the early leader.
I have just watched an interview on swiss tv.
He completely evaded the questions. It sounds like he doesnt care only sunday matters.
He was asked what his goal for time trial is. He said to give my best then i am happy.
He completely evaded the questions. It sounds like he doesnt care only sunday matters.
He was asked what his goal for time trial is. He said to give my best then i am happy.
Quaade has just taken 2mins out of everyone on the first split 
That was phenomenal. Martin is truly peerless when fully fit.
I've pretty much nailed the top 3 in the TTT and got the ITT more or less right (thought Cancellara might not podium), but there wasn't too much to go at from a betting point of view. Can't wait for Sunday though, should be superb.
I've pretty much nailed the top 3 in the TTT and got the ITT more or less right (thought Cancellara might not podium), but there wasn't too much to go at from a betting point of view. Can't wait for Sunday though, should be superb.
Martin really is a beast! 40s on the field is more than anyone would ever imagine this morning I'd have thought.
Great runs by Kiriy, Quaade and Cancellara all doing a lot better than expected. Quaade passed out after the finishing line apparently, hope he's OK.
Great runs by Kiriy, Quaade and Cancellara all doing a lot better than expected. Quaade passed out after the finishing line apparently, hope he's OK.
I'm not believing Roche is one of the best TTers in the world.
Okay, good stuff, job well done! 
Now...back to the RR...
Sagan is 2nd favourite -- can someone convince me why he is deserving of this, please?
Cheers,
SP
Now...back to the RR...
Sagan is 2nd favourite -- can someone convince me why he is deserving of this, please?
Cheers,
SP
A couple of outsiders in the road race.......
Robert Gesink 65s - come into some great form in the last month. Won a race in Quebec a couple of weeks ago. The hilly course shoudl suit and had a decent sprint finish, providing no pro sprinters are in the mix (i.e. Sagan).
Arthur Vichot 400s - in the best form of his life racing really well in Canada last couple of weeks. The course will again suit. This guy should not be this price.
Robert Gesink 65s - come into some great form in the last month. Won a race in Quebec a couple of weeks ago. The hilly course shoudl suit and had a decent sprint finish, providing no pro sprinters are in the mix (i.e. Sagan).
Arthur Vichot 400s - in the best form of his life racing really well in Canada last couple of weeks. The course will again suit. This guy should not be this price.
I think Sagan is the greatest allround talent we've seen in cycling since Eddy Merckx, imo he is very likely to surpass the successes Kelly had during his career. What impresses me is the different ways he wins his races, sometimes it looks as he does whatever he likes. No doubt there is noone to beat him if he Comes with the lead to the red kite, and along with Spartacus there should be noone from the Sprinters and classics department who might survive this course. I'm not saying he deserves his odds, but it's those 2 my sympathy goes with on Sunday.
Thanks for the reply bb66, I really appreciate it since it allows me to test my theories. I'm impressed by Sagan also, there's heaps of potential there; but specifically in this race for him to be 2nd favourite, suggests to me that I've missed something with him for this course because that's not the price I'd offer. And you infer an interesting point in terms of him being the most likely to win with 1km to go sans sprinters. However, if we examine his Classics results this season, it shows he does find ways to finish in 2nd place (or worse) more than in 1st.
Comparing Spartacus and Sagan on this course, and I again go back to the Mendrisio course in Switzerland. Yes, Spartacus was unsuited by the climbs there, but what he did so effectively to remain in the race (he finished 5th), was to open-up the engine on the downhill sections to effectively stay in the race by giving himself every opportunity against a late Spanish tag-team, and battling away on the climbs. Sagan, just hasn't proved that he can manage this type of course, even though I believe it's less of a climber's course than the one in Switzerland. But even if he can manage the downhill in a similar fashion as Spartacus has proven, to bridge gaps on the climbs, The Via Salviati has some similarities with the Paterberg, and we saw how Sagan struggled to stay with Spartacus at the Tour of Flanders this year. I don't see that he can launch an effective attack on a climb, and moreover I'm not convinced he can open the engine the way Spartacus has proven he can on the downhill sections. As a result, therefore, he doesn't deserve to be compared to Spartacus on price. I would suggest that his brand is so big now, that he attracts this type of default position, when really he doesn't deserve it after examining his results up close. Can he win this race? Yes. Is his price an accurate reflection of his chances? No, not imo. Sagan has to be there up until the end to figure, and if a strong breakaway forms he won't be in it because he doesn't have the skills to stick-on, on this type of course. Additionally, he appears too young to make his mark in the way Boonen did in 2005.
Let's look at the strong Dutchman Laurens Ten Dam, and whilst his Worlds results are poor, he is an effective climber who could make easy work of the climbs on this course (he could certainly make a big attack since he is so suited) and he has similar if not better time-trialing credentials than Sagan, and yet his price is in the 500s. And whilst Ten Dam hasn't won a Classics race over 200kms, Rui Costa has, and his Worlds results are better than Sagan's, and he is presntly being priced in the 50s.
Is Sagan a better climber than Bakelants, for instance?
I am getting closer to pulling the trigger on a Sagan Lay, to pay for Ten Dam, Spartacus, Bakelants, Rui Costa, Breschel and a Nibali bank.
Good luck to all,
SP
Comparing Spartacus and Sagan on this course, and I again go back to the Mendrisio course in Switzerland. Yes, Spartacus was unsuited by the climbs there, but what he did so effectively to remain in the race (he finished 5th), was to open-up the engine on the downhill sections to effectively stay in the race by giving himself every opportunity against a late Spanish tag-team, and battling away on the climbs. Sagan, just hasn't proved that he can manage this type of course, even though I believe it's less of a climber's course than the one in Switzerland. But even if he can manage the downhill in a similar fashion as Spartacus has proven, to bridge gaps on the climbs, The Via Salviati has some similarities with the Paterberg, and we saw how Sagan struggled to stay with Spartacus at the Tour of Flanders this year. I don't see that he can launch an effective attack on a climb, and moreover I'm not convinced he can open the engine the way Spartacus has proven he can on the downhill sections. As a result, therefore, he doesn't deserve to be compared to Spartacus on price. I would suggest that his brand is so big now, that he attracts this type of default position, when really he doesn't deserve it after examining his results up close. Can he win this race? Yes. Is his price an accurate reflection of his chances? No, not imo. Sagan has to be there up until the end to figure, and if a strong breakaway forms he won't be in it because he doesn't have the skills to stick-on, on this type of course. Additionally, he appears too young to make his mark in the way Boonen did in 2005.
Let's look at the strong Dutchman Laurens Ten Dam, and whilst his Worlds results are poor, he is an effective climber who could make easy work of the climbs on this course (he could certainly make a big attack since he is so suited) and he has similar if not better time-trialing credentials than Sagan, and yet his price is in the 500s. And whilst Ten Dam hasn't won a Classics race over 200kms, Rui Costa has, and his Worlds results are better than Sagan's, and he is presntly being priced in the 50s.
Is Sagan a better climber than Bakelants, for instance?
I am getting closer to pulling the trigger on a Sagan Lay, to pay for Ten Dam, Spartacus, Bakelants, Rui Costa, Breschel and a Nibali bank.
Good luck to all,
SP
You're correct, Vichot should not be that price, he should be 1K! Not a noted climber, nor a time-trialer, and hasn't won a Classics race over 200kms. Young and inexperienced, I'll be surprised if he is even mentioned once throughout the coverage.
Cheers,
SP
Not a noted climber, nor a time-trialer, and hasn't won a Classics race over 200kms. Young and inexperienced, I'll be surprised if he is even mentioned once throughout the coverage. Cheers,
SP
Uran Uran...so good they named him twice.
E/W
Plenty of reasons.
E/W
Plenty of reasons.
Judging from the Espoirs' race the long climb isn't steep enough to make it an elimination race for the pure climbers, the short steep climb looks more decisive, so it should favour the punchy riders, but I doubt Purito or Moreno can gain enough time to come through, so the last I would do is rule out Sagan.
I really can't have either of the 2 favourites in this. Cancellara will have to burn too much energy trying to keep up on the climbs the last few laps. Realistically I don't see how he shakes everyone who can beat him in a sprint. He's going to be marked so there isn't much chance he's up the road on the final lap where I can't see him being able to keep up.
And as for Sagan who's going to take him back to the lead group whenever there is an attack, he can't chase them all down. He tried that in Quebec (or Montreal) and couldn't sprint at the end. He's not going to get away on his own.
Froome is another that I really can't see winning but it's possible if he got away with say 2 of Moreno, Ullisi, Martin etc.
So much hinges on the tactics Spain employ. Will Purito, Moreno, Contador and the Sanchez's really ride for Valverde? It's got to be the fall back plan but to win he'll need it to be a really select group of 5-10 climbers and Spain will have to be on the front a long way out to narrow the field down to just that.
It's a fascinating race, I think I'll just lay Cancellara, Sagan and Froome.
And as for Sagan who's going to take him back to the lead group whenever there is an attack, he can't chase them all down. He tried that in Quebec (or Montreal) and couldn't sprint at the end. He's not going to get away on his own.
Froome is another that I really can't see winning but it's possible if he got away with say 2 of Moreno, Ullisi, Martin etc.
So much hinges on the tactics Spain employ. Will Purito, Moreno, Contador and the Sanchez's really ride for Valverde? It's got to be the fall back plan but to win he'll need it to be a really select group of 5-10 climbers and Spain will have to be on the front a long way out to narrow the field down to just that.
It's a fascinating race, I think I'll just lay Cancellara, Sagan and Froome.
I have changed my mind since the u-23 race. There's a lot of talk that the course isn't as hard as it looks. This will play into Sagan and Cancellara's hands. Whether they will have the energy to deal with the constant attacking that being favourite brings is another matter.
Two further things to take into consideration are the anticpated rain (should help Cancellara, Sagan and Nibali amongst others) and the distance. Not many races are over these sorts of trips. I'm looking at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and MSL for clues about distance and weather.
I'm not going to back either of the two favourites at the short prices they are now, but I am a lot less confident about my team of climbers and am looking for alternatives with proven form at distance and in rain. Stannard & Ulissi (Italy's plan B) are on the shortlist.
Two further things to take into consideration are the anticpated rain (should help Cancellara, Sagan and Nibali amongst others) and the distance. Not many races are over these sorts of trips. I'm looking at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and MSL for clues about distance and weather.
I'm not going to back either of the two favourites at the short prices they are now, but I am a lot less confident about my team of climbers and am looking for alternatives with proven form at distance and in rain. Stannard & Ulissi (Italy's plan B) are on the shortlist.
The best bad weather form over a distance to me was Purito's Lombardia win last year. It was awful weather that day, and he won with ease. Although he states he doesn't like bad weather, he also had his team attack on the worst weather day in the vuelta, when they dropped basso and very nearly got rid of Valverde. So to me Rodriguez is definitely a rider who more than copes with rainy conditions and will have no problems with climbs or distance.
I would also be very wary of taking any notice of how easy the u23 riders said the course was. The senior race is going to be a very very different race altogether. The final lap itself is not too testing in isolation, it's the fact they are going to tackle it 10 times in 2/3 hours and 10 times at very high speed. Make no mistake the main teams here are going to ride very high tempo from the very first lap of the finishing circuit, which will make it altogether a different proposition to the u23 race. Wiggins spoke earlier in the week about froome having a meticulous plan to win, and that he himself was going to give 110% towards a British win as he did 2 years ago. I expect GB, Spain, probably Italy and possibly Colombia, to be on the front from the very first lap around Florence, taking no prisoners.
With the rain in mind, have added three more riders who may excel in the conditions, who should be able to climb with the best and last the distance. Froome 33/1, Rui Costa 60/1, Uran 66/1.
The big danger to everyone and the rider i'm most wary of that i've not backed is Nibali but i just feel the vuelta will have taken too much out of him. so I will take my chance that although i expect him to go well and be right there amongst it, that someone with fresher legs will do for him.
Gl all.
I would also be very wary of taking any notice of how easy the u23 riders said the course was. The senior race is going to be a very very different race altogether. The final lap itself is not too testing in isolation, it's the fact they are going to tackle it 10 times in 2/3 hours and 10 times at very high speed. Make no mistake the main teams here are going to ride very high tempo from the very first lap of the finishing circuit, which will make it altogether a different proposition to the u23 race. Wiggins spoke earlier in the week about froome having a meticulous plan to win, and that he himself was going to give 110% towards a British win as he did 2 years ago. I expect GB, Spain, probably Italy and possibly Colombia, to be on the front from the very first lap around Florence, taking no prisoners.
With the rain in mind, have added three more riders who may excel in the conditions, who should be able to climb with the best and last the distance. Froome 33/1, Rui Costa 60/1, Uran 66/1.
The big danger to everyone and the rider i'm most wary of that i've not backed is Nibali but i just feel the vuelta will have taken too much out of him. so I will take my chance that although i expect him to go well and be right there amongst it, that someone with fresher legs will do for him.
Gl all.
Anyone having a pop at the womens RR? Vos is incredibly short but I don't think I have the cojones to lay her pre-off. Having trouble getting any big priced outsiders matched.
Layed Vos at 1.6's. Only a couple of people live trading it.
If anyone wants a really good idea of what the circuit is like then they should watch this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRc75LSVRvY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRc75LSVRvY
Vos stormed that. Waiting for the forecast tomorrow before finalising my riders for the mens race. If it is raining it's all going to go a bit Torvil and Dean on the descent.
should be an interesting race tomorrow,some good posts on here about it,not much to add as im not overly knowledgeable ,i have backed roche,martin, froome,mollema ,what tv channell is it on eurosport,itv 4?
marychain,whos the best colombian rider ,done well in the tour pls?
Quintana was the best rider in the tour, came second to Froome. Not convinced about his tactics though, or form. Uran seemed in good nick towards the end of the Vuelta. Henao/Betancur are both talented but with question marks over their form.
A small interest bet on Kwiatowski for me.
Pity there isn't a 'Nationality of Winner' market, that way I'd be interested in the Columbians but I couldn't back any of them individually.
Pity there isn't a 'Nationality of Winner' market, that way I'd be interested in the Columbians but I couldn't back any of them individually.
Does the UCI stream work for you? http://www.uci.ch/Templates/UCI/UCI8/layout.asp?MenuID=MTYzMDQ&LangId=1
Absolutely hammering it down now. Live pictures lost, so that will not bode well if this continues when we get to the circuit.
I don't like Sagan and Cancellara as they managed to mark each other out of race wins in the classic season. If the pace is easy enough that they are still in contention I think we'll have a similar situation to this years Strade Bianche which Moser won. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEHfNwIqBFk
This will be a layers market as the rain is going to cause carnage on the newly resurfaced roads on the descent. Niewadoma the Polish girl absolutely clattered the barriers yesterday in the dry and I'd expect more DNF's here.
I've gone for an outsider in Michele Scarponi at 120's as he is on home ground and looked like he was peaking towards the end of the Vuelta.
I don't like Sagan and Cancellara as they managed to mark each other out of race wins in the classic season. If the pace is easy enough that they are still in contention I think we'll have a similar situation to this years Strade Bianche which Moser won. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEHfNwIqBFk
This will be a layers market as the rain is going to cause carnage on the newly resurfaced roads on the descent. Niewadoma the Polish girl absolutely clattered the barriers yesterday in the dry and I'd expect more DNF's here.
I've gone for an outsider in Michele Scarponi at 120's as he is on home ground and looked like he was peaking towards the end of the Vuelta.
Italy look the strongest team to me and Nibali probably the one to beat
1) Nibali
2) Gilbert
3) EBH
1) Nibali
2) Gilbert
3) EBH
COSTA! 
Rui Costa for the first Portugal win ever!
Cheers,
SP
Rui Costa for the first Portugal win ever!
Cheers,
SP
What a great race, all the better when you've backed the first 2 home!!
But have to say i'm gutted for Purito, he so deserves a really big one, always seems to just miss out. What a great gutsy rider though, but credit to Costa for not giving it up and showing such a will to win.
But have to say i'm gutted for Purito, he so deserves a really big one, always seems to just miss out. What a great gutsy rider though, but credit to Costa for not giving it up and showing such a will to win.
Big mistake by Valverde to let Costa go over the railway bridge, when Nibali was clearly cooked, and Costa was doing absolutely nothing on the last lap. He should give Nibali the bronze medal. SP.
SP.
Yep, great race, especially when you win, but Nibali would've only been a bank return for me, and either of the two Spaniards a big loss. SP.
Even though Costa did well in Romandie and Suisse, he just really impressed in the Tour with those two excellent wins, and 50s was an end-of-season gift for the faithful. Will be very pleased to see him in the Rainbow Jersey next week in Lombardi. SP.
SP.
Uran ....think I can count myself pretty unlucky there...100's a ridiculous price.
Hope he's ok
Hope he's ok
what a day for Portugal, 1st cycling road race world champion and 1st ATP tennis tournament win
Purito must be absolutely raging as the Movistar boys done him up like a kipper
Felt a bit sorry for Valverde there, didnt dare close the gap because it would be bringing Nibali back, and had a trade teammate and a compatriot up the road. At least Rui Costa won't have to wear that Godawful pink Lampre kit next year...
Well done SP, looked at Rui Costa and didn't pull the trigger.
Well done SP, looked at Rui Costa and didn't pull the trigger.
yes well done sp,i had small stake bet on rui costa at 42 after reading this thread,good work thx
Thanks PD. Really appreciate your input MC1 -- everyone here should -- you get the debate going by being often the first to commit to an opinion, and then not being afraid to change your mind. It's easy to disagree with someone when they have formed the foundation for an argument, and there's a way in. I can honestly say that I wouldn't be so engaged in asking all the right questions if not for you and other regular posters, here.
Apart from all the luck required in such difficult conditions, Costa did ride very positively by being within the head of the peloton for most of the race -- we needed an all-rounder for this course, and whilst Costa didn't tick many boxes in terms of spreads, he really impressed by being capable of doing it all in those two Tour wins, and having such a great season. Then comparing his price to Sagan, I think told the significant story.
I didn't have Valverde so it's difficult for me to feel sorry for him, but I understand your point.
Many thanks,
SP
Apart from all the luck required in such difficult conditions, Costa did ride very positively by being within the head of the peloton for most of the race -- we needed an all-rounder for this course, and whilst Costa didn't tick many boxes in terms of spreads, he really impressed by being capable of doing it all in those two Tour wins, and having such a great season. Then comparing his price to Sagan, I think told the significant story.
I didn't have Valverde so it's difficult for me to feel sorry for him, but I understand your point.
Many thanks,
SP
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