Vuelta a Espana

Yeah, wasn't tempted either.

Using A Geeks Toy it definitely showed no matches on him. There was even money available to back at 13.5 and 13 on Morkov when the market suspended and T. Martin was available to lay at 1.5 too . With the inplay betting delay and the prompt market suspension not really surprising though, although you have to be careful, cycling markets aren't always suspended to quickly at the conclusion.

my pics are so much delayed (ES), that I thought it was already finished when Martin was available to lay @1.01 and he had won, didn't look like it at all to me at that second, so I don't know how someone was tempted to press the button.

Michael Morkov won the National Champs of Denmark on the road at 200kms -- so 1K was big.

bb66 -- I agree with you entirely win relation to your initial consideration of Sky riders, and yes now that they have Uran so high up on the GC after Giro performance (which I maintain he disappointed to not have won) it's easy for them (and us) to reverse opinion and install leader status. Not as much liquidity as I would have expected for the GC market (even with the favs) but where do you think his price should be at? Also, agree that Spartacus spoiled it for Martin, who I think everyone will agree deserved the win -- what a magnificent engine!

Don't feel sorry for the MUG who backed Martin at 1.01 -- you cannot do that in cycling, especially in that kind of scenario.

How good is Stybar going? 27 years old and he has done nothing until this year. How would he have gone with a ramp to the finish against the World Champion, though? Perhaps one to keep an eye on, going forward.

Dan Martin -- ouch!

Cheers,
SP

it's difficult to judge Uran's form compared to his rivals, but I would have him between 3 and 4 maybe for the podium

Back to the climbers after a couple of relative flat days, definitely not betting on the flatter stages they are just so unpredictable in this vuelta.

With a proper tough mountain stage coming up on monday, I have a feel the likes of Nibali/Rodriguez/Valverde will probably just be watching and marking each other again tomorrow. I expect that to change monday, when i think we will see some real time gaps and a good shake up of the GC.

Tomorrows stage (stage 8), is quite short 166km and fairly easy until we get to the climb to the finish. The peleton will quickly be decimated over the first couple of km climbing, as it's very steep to start at 12% for 2km! It flattens out for a few km before ramping up again , and averaging over 7% for the last 5km. Expect to see a bunch of maybe 30 riders still together going in to the last few km. Like I said I don't expect any big attacks from the main contenders. One rider who may fancy an attack again is Konig, he has looked very strong so far and after a Czech winner today he could be fired up to do likewise. Another rider who has looked in great shape, as he was in the first week of the tour, is Mollema, this  stage and climb should really suit him.

Konig 33/1
Mollema 40/1

Well done, Happybacker! Brilliant call on Konig. Full congratulations and respect!

Cheers,
SP

Yes well done.  Roche in red

Great shout on Konig. One of my favourite riders and fully deserved a GT win.

Nibali looked off the gas again, is he targeting the third week and the worlds or is he going to be a trade over the next few days.

Uran lost 40" today and seems to be lacking team support

I think you're asking two different questions, CJ70. 1.) How is the market reacting and going to react to his performance? 2.) Is he still a worthy favourite to win this as an outright bet? To answer the former question first: 1) expectedly he has eased a little in the market but remains favourite because 2.) his credentials haven't really changed, and he is within the amount of time he may regain just in the ITT. In his 2010 winning ride, he rode in a similar fashion -- tactically aware -- not doing the heavy lifting, riding smart by looking at the big picture, and yes obviously keeping the third week in consideration.

This suggests to me that he is coming into good value range, because he is riding comfortably within himself, and losing only small amounts of time which he will be capable of getting back later. I mean, he hasn't done anything wrong, in fact I would argue he has let go of the red jersey in order to release the pressure on his team having to defend it, knowing full-well that remaining relatively fresh in the third week will be decisive for him, and that will be the time to strike.

Nibali has become my bank in the GC market, but I'm now considering to increase green on him at this price, since he is riding very intelligently and obviously similar to 2010.

Uran not gone like Arroyo, but questions being raised.

Good luck to all,
SP

Stage 10 Alto de Hazallanas.

One of the key stages in this years vuelta, we will see the first really big shake up of the gc. Think Rodriguez and Valverde will be attacking here, with a rest day to follow and then the tt where they will undoubtedly lose time to Nibali. Really fancy Rodriguez to win this stage tomorrow, think he has ridden wisely so far in just marking Valverde and not attacking. But am expecting him to want to gain some big seconds here, there are plenty of sections of 12%+ on the final climb and it should be ideal for Purito to attack.

If Purito is content to sit on Valverde's wheel again, which i think is unlikely, then Nieve could be a contender for this stage. He is one of the best climbers in the field, was right there on nearly all the climbs on the tour, and his finish today suggested his form from the tour maybe still there. After dropping out on saturday it's clear he's not here for the gc but just for a stage win or 2! This stage will be just the sort Nieve would feel he could win, though whatever happens tomorrow i feel sure he will definitely be targeting the Angliru stage. His price for tomorrow at pp of 100/1 seems huge for a climber of his ability.

Rodriguez 6/1
Nieve 100/1!

Not sure it's good for cycling but it's good for my bank balance. Nibali looks better than I expected and I'm considering cashing in on my losses on him.

Will see how the market settles in relation to Horner before deciding whether to get out or not. Always a worry that he might get pinged for previous indiscretions.

Horner is CLEAN!

My previous comments have been deleted. Presumably because of what I said about Chris Horner. I also said I was all over Cancellara at 4/1 today.

The classic "my post was deleted" aftertime!

Interested in what you wrote about Horner, though.

I said he was a ********** ***** who should be chucked out of the sport and I hoped he would be chucked in **** as well. ******* in the face of cycling.

Looks like we were tricked to Martin with a wrong 1st time check on Spartacus, glad I only did a small bet on Martin 1st

All the split times have been wrong all morning, at the first split anyway.

Eurosport still using the old (wrong) split times

The way Spartacus flexed his legs to chase down Martin on stage 6 when Morkov won, made for a compelling case he would be back to his best form in the ITT here, especially after doing those impressive turns in the TTT. He's having a magnificent season, which got going twice, actually. 3rd Milan-San Remo, 1st E3, 1st Tour of Flanders, and 1st Paris-Roubaix -- like a vintage Boonen or Gilbert season.

Nibali's GC price going into freefall here.

Cheers,
SP

That ride from Pozzovivo was almost as not normal as Horner's on Monday. Are the testers on holiday or something?

I know and have ridden round all the roads round the end of Stage 11, from Reus round Montroig, through Cambrils and up towards Tarragona. It's coastal and flat into Tarragona. It looks like a sprint stage at first glance, but I'm not sure the sprint teams are strong enough to reel in a strong break if one gets out on the road. There were a couple of time triallers that underperformed in today's stage that make me wonder if a few had their eyes on this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha, might be one. What are your thoughts MC? SP.

2013-09-04
17:03    29557773569     2013-09-04
16:33     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          1.01    X    Lost    X
    2013-09-04
17:03    29557591326     2013-09-04
16:25     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          2.50    X    Lost    X
    2013-09-04
17:03    29557573726     2013-09-04
16:25     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          3.00    X    Lost    X
    2013-09-04
17:03    29557491021     2013-09-04
16:21     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          4.00    X    Lost    X
    2013-09-04
17:03    29557480913     2013-09-04
16:20     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          3.00    X    Lost    X
    2013-09-04
17:03    29557371777     2013-09-04
16:16     Vuelta a Espana 2013 Stage 11 TT / Stage Top 3 Finish / Domenico Pozzovivo
Lay          3.00    X    Lost    X

Something tells me that I wont be ending this Vuelta with a profit. Outrageous performance.

Seems to be a massive over reaction to Nibali taking the red jersey back, can't believe he is now odds on!
To my eyes everyone finished about where you would have expected in todays TT (except Pozzovivo!). Nibali gained a bit but wasn't as impressive as in the Giro, Horner and Purito lost a little bit which we knew they would. Don't think anyone will be too unhappy after that. The GC still looks wide open to 8 or 9 riders and is far from done and dusted, the real mountain tests are still to come, and there will be some twists yet!

As for tomorrow looks sure to be a bunch sprint finish to me, Orica and Omega will make sure of that. Is probably going to be the last chance for them tomorrow before Madrid. Pretty sure Matthews will win the stage but 6/4 not for me. Think friday will be a good day for a break to go all the way.

Wouldnt surprise me at all to see Flecha in the break.

@CJ70 I saw someone put on twitter that after Cobo, Horner and now Pozzovivo, you'd be better off backing people on the X-Factor than in the Vuelta.

It's true. Although we can pick out certain people as likely to have 'better than expected' results in the Vuelta, indeed most of my green book in the winner's market is due to Horner.

The day a guy that weighs 8 stone outdiesels Nibali, Cancellara and Tony on a 4% ramp is the day where reality left the room!

Totally agree. When you consider he almost definitely lost time on the descent, he probably did the rest of the course faster than Tony Martin

It just beggars belief.

When that comes two days after 42 year old Horner leaves Nibali for dead it just makes a complete mockery of the sport. I wanted to believe Wiggins and Froome were clean but this nonsense just leaves me cold. You can't help but think that whatever Sky have had their hands on has now spread into the rest of the peloton.

I think we can put this down to the lax testing in Spain rather than anything else. Horner has been hitting his straps in all the races that have no testing, so he was bound to be up to the eyeballs on product here. Both he and Pozzo would be pinged in France, you would have to crack more than a few eggs to be pinged here.

Belkin and SKY have been blown away so far, I don't think that's a coincidence.

Anything can happen here. Don't think there's a bet I want to have today, except to maybe take a chance on a break staying out. Might just throw a couple of quid at a few Adam Hansen, Tony Martin and Dario Cataldo types just in case. And I'll take Boassen Hagen and Spartacus late on against the sprinters, lots of furniture and sharp turns on the way into Tarragona. Might suit a late attack from Flecha as well.

Had a little dabble on Matthews as OGE are all over the peloton and as long as they don't mess up the lead out he should be up there. Looks like a stage built for crashes in the last K.

Just seen the pictures of Pozzo yesterday, he didn't even use a TT bike.

using a normal road bike (tbh I didn't spot it) might be the explanation why he was faster uphill, but lost 1:40 from top to arrival

It doesn't explain how he managed to beat Tony on the relative flat of the first CP.

Tony off on a banzai, no Pozzo in the wheel today.

Good stuff on giving the forum the character of the run-in to the finish, MC1. Cheers, SP

...Well perhaps not entirely, but I did get enough of a flavour to pick-up from where you finished. Very narrow roads, causing high speeds and rough riding for hard-as-nails finishers. Pity I had lost faith in Gilbert for so long that I didn't even consider him for this -- finish looked made-to-order for him. Arghh... Definitely missed an opportunity here, but the correct thinking was there.

Cheers, SP

Stage 13 is set-up for a breakaway succeeding after the cat 1 climb gives suitable candidates the launching pad for a 50km, relatively downhill ride to the finish. The dip on the profile soon after the cat 1, might contribute to their advantage since it will allow the climbers to consolidate their advantage, or at least have a better chance of defending it. The Books will invariably come up with some default favourite, and some lay value might be open for pouncing on if liquidity comes. As I write this, in fact, it looks like the Swinging D!ck has gone with Basso to be installed as favourite, and so at nearly 3mins behind I would question if he would win from the breakaway? And that makes me lean toward an initial lay, but I suspect it won't be at 2/1.

I think you need a certain type of climber in this break, in so far as he might be best served by being on the heavier and larger physical frame. Will wait to see who makes the break and the gap with 40kms to go, but the likes of someone like Laurens Ten Dam ticks some boxes in ante-poste, or even fellow team-mate Mollema looks good if he can recapture the good riding he showed in the first week. Incidentally, during the 10th stage he had given up all GC hopes on account of fatigued legs, and then in post-stage interview went on to say he'll conserve energy levels as much as possible until a suitable stage presents itself to go for stage glory and get something for the team. His last two stages, especially, have looked like training rides, so if his legs are good, he may be one dangerous candidate to have before the off.

Good luck to all,
SP

Gilbert will be favourite for tomorrow imo. Don't fancy the break, the Cat1 is only 4.3km and there are, as you mentioned, 50kms to race after that - can see this being brought back for the puncheurs like Phil Gil.

It is 4k+ at 10% though isnt it?

yes, 4.3km @ 10.6% avg.

But it'll have little to no impact on the stage due to how far it is from the finish. No-one is going to take 5mins on the peloton and solo home from here. I don't see the break being allowed to go all the way.

despite the shorter (but much steeper instead) climb and the longer way to the finish from there I think a Scenario like we had in this year's TdF stage 16 into Gap is possible with 1 (or even 2) lead groups of 10-15 men - the 2nd maybe (if a bit larger) even including the GC contenders. Different to Gap though we have a 10% ascend on the last 500m here, which makes it a different kind of rider to pick for the win.

Break is winning this.

I'll take Coppel was fantastic in the time trial the other day, can climb and Cofidis really need something cos they've had a poor year.

Still available at 24 even after I've had my fill.

Taken some 55s on Gilbert just in case they peg it back

bunch sit up, so take your pick from the 9.

Reckon Nocentini and Santaromita are the best two from this sort of escape, but I'll take my chance on Coppel and Inxausti

Right then, who has got the best drugs today? I'm going to go with Basso and Pozzovivo.

The next three days are the most important of the vuelta, and will go along way to deciding who is this years winner. The race really does get brutal from here, there will be no hiding place, and only those truly climbing well will  be left in contention.

To my mind mondays first mountain proper showed the 5 Gc riders that are climbing best, and the ones to concentrate on, Nibali, Horner, Rodriguez, Pinot, and Basso. You will notice i've not included Valverde or Roche as i thought they were in trouble on monday and only got back on because the others slowed after Horner attacked.

Purito showed in his little attack yesterday that he knows he has to start taking time back this weekend, and hopefully it was a sign  that he is starting to feel really strong. I feel sure he will attack on todays final climb and will be looking for the stage win.

The other rider I really want to back over the next couple of days is Pinot. To my eyes he looked the most comfortable (bar Horner) on mondays stage, and I think he has been overlooked and way over priced. Pinot is a very good climber well capable of staying with the best as he has shown on the tour in the past. His achilles heel has been his tendency to have the odd bad day but he has looked strong here and hopefully he will keep his form over the next week. I put him up at the start of the tour as a good bet for top 10 and an outsider for the podium, the top 3 might be just out of his grasp this week but hopefully he should safely be in the 10.

stage 14
Rodriguez 9/2
Pinot 40/1

gonna have a little nibble on 4 outsiders
marcos garcia
simon clarke
maciej paterski
antonio piedro
gwaaan the break

I've been against Pinot as it's raining and they have long downhill sections. If he abandoned TdF because he is scared of descending he wont be anywhere near over that yet.

Not sure they will go all out to catch the break including Ratto, Gilbert, Brown, LuLu & Chainel. We should get pictures just before the peleton tops Envalira.

If it looks like the GC contenders are going to fight out the stage I'll be all over Pozzo & Horner.

Traders wet dream or nightmare.. No footage in the mountains as the helicopters are grounded.

LuLu abandoned because of hypothermia after crashing. Sounds like a lovely day up there.

Yeah terrible conditions alright sounds horrible.
And CJ so much for Pinot's descending problems, he has now attacked on the descent and is in a small group ahead of the peleton!

Valverde has been dropped and Basso! sounds like carnage today!

Basso also retired with hypothermia! Brutal stage and it will only get harder this week!

Good news if Pinot is over it, certainly a day to find out. Layed a bit of Ratto at short prices as we have no time checks to the chasers.

Papa and Nibbles in a two horse race.

Nibali looks like this weather doesn't bother him as we already saw in the Giro

Yeah CJ it is beginning to look a two horse race, as much as i want Purito to win it's not looking likely now! At least Pinot improved his position and looks sure for top ten.

Tomorrow will be the main indicator I think. Who will recover for tomorrow, if anybody lost time today were they saving themselves for tomorrow.

I don't expect Papa to feel a second hard day in the saddle for obvious reasons. Not sure about Nibali, he looked like he was riding at about 80% and schooled the field today. Will he have a bad day tomorrow? Weather is set to be poor again and if the pace is high and we get attacks on the descent, Nibali has form for pushing too hard and coming a cropper.

Don't expect the break to be in a position to take the day tomorrow and it looks like a J-Rod finish, I suspect he'll be super short for tomorrow.

CJ I  agree tomorrow is THE crucial  stage, and if you fancy J-Rod get on to b365 he's 10/1! And i see pp are going 14/1 Nibali! Both seem huge prices to me. I assume Valverde has been made fav because of his win on this finish in last years tour. That was a far easier stage, and didn't come on the back of such a brutal day, where he spent the last hour or 2 chasing as hard as he could to get back on. Hats off to him it was a great effort to limit his losses today but in no way does that suggest to me he is about to win the biggest hardest stage of this vuelta.

I can't see a break staying out tomorrow  even if the weather is as bad again. The  stage is very long and they will have done 200km by the time they get to the top of the port de bales, i think any break will be caught on that climb. I expect it will then be a showdown of the very elite on the final climb/climbs, Nibali and Horner, probaly Rodriguez, maybe Pinot and very questionably Valverde. Purito desperately wants to win a stage this weekend but can he drop Nibali? I'm not sure, I hope so. I think it's between the 2, and obviously Horner, tough I just have a feeling the old man will have an off day soon??

The fly in the ointment are Euskatel. They love to win stages in the pyrenees, they were strong today with 4 in the top  20, and  Sammy Sanchez seems to be getting stronger every day. I have a feeling one of their riders will  have a dig for home from a long way out, maybe Sanchez, maybe Nieve/Anton/Landa?

stage 15 bets
Rodriguez 10/1
Nibali 14/1
Nieve 25/1

Had a nibble at J-Rod at 12's, Papa Horner at 16's and Pozzovivo at 50's. The stage profile to me screams J-Rod territory and I can't ignore the juice twins. All three are a bit big, so I'm hoping to lay a bit back when the market forms properly or when we go in play.

I can't make out why Bala is favourite here either. His comments after the race today suggest he is suffering badly and if it comes down to a GC group I'd take Papa, Nibali and J-Rod all before him.

I'm not sure if it's just me, but I think Euskatel have switched off a little since the Alonso news came through? My outsiders of the day that I'm hoping to pick up for a big price are Leopold, Nico and Kiriyenka.

Even at 8/1 Nibali is a cracking each way bet today. His team are doing a good job, and unlike the others he doesn't really need to push today.

Little pop on Cataldo today at 80s and a bigger bet on him to beat Sarmiento at 9/10.

Got 33/1 Barguil top 10. Wins two stages but hours down...So close but so far

MC1 -- well done on uncovering this young Barguil lad, I wasn't aware of his promise and you have tipped him for the top-10 from the very start. How did you come across him in research? SP.

Heard the Argos DS talking about him and the young sprinters before the Tour and had a look what I could find. Not in the bag yet today, two riders chasing.

I understand, the Argos team are really looking like a development squad, aren't they? Great win today though -- he has shown his stuff when being challenged by Uran. SP.

Holy crap what a finish that was

Love the Vuelta

Nibali dropped

Rest day has come at the wrong time for me. Riis took full advantage of rest days as a pro and his cyclists tend to come back a little stronger after the rest day.

Layed a little bit more of Horner off and had a little bit more against Nibali as he's far too short. I suspect this will be decided on Angry Lou and in current form I don't see Nibali being able to stick with Horner. A lot of ground to be covered before we get to that point.

For Riis read Vino.

Who else thinks Horner insurance is a wise play? SP.

I think it is wise. Cheats prosper.

If you are heavily exposed on Horner I'd look to cover. It's a two horse race with the second horse looking forward to the steep ramps in the last few days.

Not touching anything today as the breakaway could stay away again.

No bet for me today either, wasn't sure whether sprinter teams could reel in the break and its a horrible looking ramp and descent about 10k out of Burgos. I went for Spartacus and Roux in my tipping comp.

After a slow start -- and thanks to MC1 and Dope that at least it was positive by swaying me on Nibali -- I'm not willing to lose most of my meagre Nibali green to dig Horner out of half-field-red position. I'm heavy red on Valverde and Purito, but I'm going to play the odds on Horner, for a tad bit longer. Nibali looks good, but whilst Horner looks suited to the steep climbing his age just doesn't fit the spreads.

Great laying market today, alas there were no bets for me, either.

Cheers,
SP

I've been trying to work out a position to take for today. It's a stage that was made for J-Rod and at 3.6 he is rightly the heavy favourite.

That said I'll be opposing him for the following reasons..
1) Do Movistar and Katusha have the leg power to ride hard all day to stop a break from succeeding? Probably.
2) If we have a hard stage it will more than likely affect the guys with Tour legs.
3) Papa has been master of the uphills regularly dropping J-Rod
4) When it has come to a sprint finish, Bala has had a slight edge on J-Rod
5) I expect Pozzovivo and his team(If there are any left) to try and attack Nico early after having their pants pulled down by Saxo yesterday.

The rest day should mean that those looking for a refill should be in top condition. Horner is my favourite, but if anyone can stay with him he's toast in the sprint.

Also looking to lay Nico if Saxo try something off the 2nd Cat

very dodgy pefromance by horner - record climb by over 20 seconds

*performance

Wow. Nibali is shot.

Slightly overdid laying Horner and now he's my worst result. IMO only being pinged stops Horner from winning this.

Great run by Kiri to save SKY's Vuelta as well.

Sammy Sanchez is going to have a go today isn't he? So obvious

Someone thinks Eddy Boss is going to have a go today too... more money matched on him than anyone else... don't see it myself.

Unless one of the GC contenders wants to sacrifice riders to look for the time bonuses this is going to be a break, with Angry Lou coming up tomorrow I don't see it.

Don't see it happening for Eddy Bos either but the money suggests someone has said he is going for it. I'd take Henao out of the SKY riders.

My main pick for today is Mr. Breakaway, Mr. Glorious Failure, the great Amets Txurruka. I expect both he and Edet to try and get in the break for the mountain classification points, so I've backed both looking to trade in running.

Both my choices in breaks and trading lower but I was too busy on the football to take advantage.

Horner in red and the way Nibali is going he could drop off the podium on Angry Lou.

Clay, missed your opinions earlier in proceedings -- maybe I wouldn't have to be taking a loss with Horner, if you were to have swayed me on keeping him safe. Purito opened as favourite on here for the stage, but there's no way he's ripping into tomorrow to get nearly 2mins back.

Cheers,
SP

What an absolute joke sport..........age 41 and suddenly wins a Grand Tour ROFL

Just totted up my P/L for the Vuelta from all sources. Turned in a decent performance but ended with a loss of £59.

Looking back on the 3 weeks passed, where did Nibali lose the tour? Was it in the 1st week, when he handed the leader's jersey to Horner twice, or was it in stages 14 and 15, when he missed to take time out of him on the 2 bad weather mountain stages, thinking it would be enough to defend the advantage?

Interesting question -- I considered Horner being a danger, but was confident that Nibali was riding smart, not allowing the situation to get away from him or defending too heavily and putting himself into energy debt; and generally saving himself for the showdown on L´Angliru. Since the penultimate stage came down to who had the better legs between the two rivals, and considering that both knew -- from the start -- that this is where a time gap of up 45 secs could be defended or attacked, in my opinion Nibali lost the Vuelta here, in a battle of attrition of energy levels for the entire season, in so far as Horner hadn't ridden a GT this season and Nibali had ridden and won the Giro, earlier.

Cheers,
SP

Disregarding the betting side, as fans does it bother you that the winner (and therefore probably many others in the race) have possibly been 'helped' so to speak or does the excitement override that? And would you say the Giro D'Italia is also this way? As an irregular fan the idea that rather than pure sporting ability its potentially who is on the best gear that decides the outcome totally destroys the sport (especially on mountain stages, my favourite). Its probably a naive view but the man v man v mountain has to be one of the most purest of sporting tests that deserves to be clean.

It's not my area of interest to discuss such matters, never has been -- sorry! SP.

I just think that they have found new, effective ways to microdose EPO. I believe it is a C02 inhaler delivery system means they avoid detection but still get a big performance boost. It was apparently being trialled by many teams in the Tour and because it hadnt been perfected at that stage it led to some people and teams having very poor or up and down tours.

Seems some have got it right now. Once again, they're ahead of the testers.

I think we can say with confidence that seven out of the top ten were cheating without any fear. The other three? One I'd be extremely worried about after previously riding clean(My opinion) and the other two have the benefit of the doubt.

We all knew it was going to be a freak fest as you don't get pinged in Spain unless you annoy the powers that be. The only surprise for me is that Contador didn't turn up and win it by 10 mins.

I don't think most of those cheating at the Vuelta are using anything new. Why bother with the expense? That's not to say there isn't anything new floating around, there clearly is.

As for where Nibali lost it. A combination of two stages I think.

Firstly underestimating Horner when he took 50 mins on the first MTF and then not going the full Pozzovivo in the TT when he already knew Horner had mountain legs.

7/10?

The 3 I'd be most confident about being clean looking at that top 10 would be Nibali, Pinot and Roche. There's only 2 in the top 10 I'm sure were doping, (CH & DP) and with the other 5 there wasn't anything that caught my eye as being freakish but who knows either way?

I've always thought Roche has ridden clean. Always had the talent but hasn't been able to apply himself 100%, now since he's shacked up with Riis he suddenly gets more consistent and starts TT'ng. That worries me.

Pinot & Konig are the other two.

Pretty sure Nibali topped up before Angliru, his battle with Horner reminded me of Rasmussen v Contador.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WRqxW9Jyt8

Forgive the Machiavellian thought processes but it did cross my mind that the USADA ‘missed appointment’ with Chris Horner for his random dope test seemed a little odd.

It made me wonder if they had serious doubts about the credibility of his performances but very little confidence of obtaining a positive test result.  They then (deliberately?) turn up at the wrong place and let Team Radioshack unwittingly publicise the missed test.  Black propaganda mission accomplished?

Okay, I confess I’m not really being very serious here but it might make a good storyline for a soap opera…

I'd suggest as there was a mix up between USADA and their Spanish counterparts, the latter looking for a clean Vuelta may be a similar far fetched story.

It does seem likely to be EPO-type blood doping of some sort. But both Horner and Froome are skeletal - even for cyclists - they have faces like E.T - so maybe it's something to do with fat burning.

AICAR seems to be what the pros were using a few years ago to lose mass without losing power. Supposedly there is a test to detect it, but I'd take that with a pinch of salt.

I'd be surprised if Horner was using anything new.