Tdf: Stage 14 Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule - Lyon - Day for the Break?

SP - do u think Orica GE will be trying something tomorrow? Clarke?

I'd go for Albasini to be OGE's man for the break tomorrow

Confused by the sprinters prices. Cav and Greipel both at 40/1. Do they have a chance at not getting dropped? Thought they'd either be way bigger (no chance) or slightly lower (some chance).

Yes, definitely agree on a breakaway succeeding. Very high chance indeed, if there's no GC dangers involved. Which consequently makes a Sagan lay good value, after he opened-up as a solid 3/1 favourite with the Books. Presently at 5/1 on here suggests a wait-and-see prospect, so far.

Yes Clay, I also believe Clarke will be looking to get into it. He was in the third group on the road in stage 13, so perhaps had an easier time of it, and management have come out saying that they want representation in the breakaway. So, since he's the most likely candidate in the team, and if he's feeling good, it's a good chance he'll be wanting to steal into it.

However, this stage looks like one for the punchy-type Spanish riders, and with this in mind I like Mikel Nieve. He finished in 16th place in the Yellow jersey group of stage 9, and then confirmed his good form by backing-up the next day to Ax 3 Domaines, finishing in 6th place. Far from a prolific winner, his best result this year was in February, in the Tour of the Mediterranean, where he finished 3rd in a similarly hilly stage 5 from Bandol to Grasse over 192 kms. With Euskatel-Euskadi having little to show for their racing across France so far, and with much needed representation on tv, let alone a stage win for the Sapnish fans at home, Nieve is the most likely to give himself an opportunity to get into the breakaway. He opened up at 66/1 with the Books, but at 120/1 on here I think he is excellent value as a rider to work with a breakaway group of many riders, from which a further selection may come.

Good luck to all,
SP

With over 300m of vertical to climb to the highest point on the stage, to the 727m cat 3 Col du Pilon after having climbed a cat 3 before it, I think the sprinters are unlikely to contest the sprint for first place. Cannondale don't look strong enough to work as a solo team to bring back the breakaway in the downhill section from Pilon, and with roughly a 100m vertical climb of the cat 4 ramp for their efforts to come by the bottom, no other sprinter's teams will want to help, knowing that Sagan will likely be strongest by the end of another two cat 4 ramps before the finish.

Essentially, the Books think that with 65kms of road to the finish after Pilon, there's a lot of racing to be had and that some organization might eventuate into a concerted effort to bring the breakaway/s.

Cheers,
SP

BMC have had a shocker and this could be their last chance saloon. Might throw a few quid on Gilbert

Nieve?

If you want 200 on him put it up and I'll lay it.

gl.

Totally agree with the majority view that it will be a day for the break. Got to think the GC teams will be saving their legs for sunday, and the sprint teams will have their main men so far behind by halfway that they won't be too bothered in chasing the break down either.

Also agree with SP and Clay that Euskatel and BMC are 2 teams that will be looking for this sort of breakaway win now. Maybe also FDJ, Cofidis, sojasun.

So going to have a little on
Burghardt(BMC)150/1 - has won a breakaway stage before, and was very active in Romandie this year
Vichot (FDJ) 80/1 - as mentioned on an earlier stage is a rider in form
Taaramae (Cofidis)200/1 - a very good all rounder on his day, not having the best of tours but capable of doing something if in a break.

Voeckler will be in the break 99.9%, probably with a 2nd EUC rider, as only 9 pts are available for KOM I doubt it will be Rolland

Reading some of the teams' comments and general language used about this stage, it's almost like there is an unofficial pact for a breakaway to succeed and allow the peloton to have a relative rest day -- so long as the riders play by the rules and not put a GC danger into it. Still not convinced by Sagan being installed and remaining favourite -- looks more-and-more like a default position, but he's still not in the range of a value lay. Stage 7 was a lumpy stage, not hilly like this one, and Cannondale were smashing-up their team to keep the advantage. Can't see a repeat performance.

Clay -- I think the first cat 3 at 8% might be a bit too steep for Gilbert, will need to be at his best to get over it with enough strength to back-up for the next cat 3 which suits him more.

Happybacker -- for those three teams you've mentioned I'd also envisage Julien Simon for Sojasun, Jeremy Roy for FDJ, and Daniel Navarro for Cofidis actually made my short list -- but not including these as they wouldn't be payed for.

Have added Bardet at 130/1.

Cheers,
SP

bb66 -- good point with Voeckler. The market should be quite receptive to Voeckler in the break, and wouldn't be surprised to see him favourite by the middle of the stage. I would actually have had him installed as favourite, so he could be a good trade at that price with enough liquidity.

Cheers,
SP

I'm sorry SP but a 1.7km climb at 8.2% will be nothing for Gilbert. If the stage finished at it's summit he'd be a favourite. It's also 80km from the finish, they wont be attacking up it Gilbert will have no problems there.

These stages are great, where you know the break have a real chance, great though if you get a man or two in the break at prices.
I've scatter bombed a few in the hope.

Tom Dumoulin
Simon Clarke
Dami Cunego
Tejay V G
Wout Poels
Jurgen Roelandts
Brett Lancaster
Blel Kadri
Willam Bonnet

Good luck.

Dope -- when the time comes where you provide some information for your selection, in fact just offer your selection, I might finally consider what you have to say without a smile on my face.

Van Garderen the better option from BMC stable for this.

Cheers,
SP

hb
joined you with vichot (thats him knackered then)
and added boom cyril and j izagirre to my portfollio of losers
gl all

Pinot for me, won a lumpy stage 8 last year with 7 climbs, exciting young rider and decent chance @ 140 if getting into the break..gl all

I am tempted to add a few more...But you can go through half the field for this almost, bar Sky, Movistar and Belkin you'd have though and anyone outside 15 mins of GC could be in the break. And if one of those categorised climbs was a bit beefier at the end you would happily discard the sprinters but who knows, there is enough time for them to get into it if the will and legs are there after the last 3rd category climb.

This is one of the stages that would be interesting to see from the off to see how the selection is made.

I provided 2 picks in this thread already. Navardaukas to win and LAY Nieve - who was available at 900 & 910 before the stage started, enjoy your 150 - he honestly should have been 1000.

Anyone got a stream for this at all?

apart from stage 9 it seems the 1st attack always was successful, quite different to times of late 90ies and early '00s, when there were numerous attacks with 50km/h average in 1st hour

Vichot makes it across for some up there ^^

vichot and kadri in the break

They have 40 seconds...
Surely Lampre, Katusha, Cofidis, Euskatel et all need some interest on a day like this and will bring it back...

Looks like orica desperate to have someone in the break, as they have done a lot of the chasing down here. Will all be back together again soon, then expect more attacks and sure to be an OGE rider in the mix.

got with Millar at decent odds on the counter attack.
will of course chuck a couple of quid away on  my usual long-shots...

Albasini in it as I predicted, but with Talansky they won't have great freedom, maybe they convince him to drop back

Looks like we have our break now. All 18 of them.

Yeah it's a shame Talanksy is there because i can't see the GC riders giving him much rope.

Tejay, Burghart, Talansky, Millar. Anyone know anymore?

TALANSKY A.178GRS+00:13:11
BAKELANTS J.42RLT+00:31:29
VAN GARDEREN T.39BMC+00:38:08
GAUTIER C.54EUC+00:43:47
VICHOT A.79FDJ+00:44:25
VOIGT J.48RLT+00:59:28
ALBASINI M.182OGE+01:07:50
BURGHARDT M.33BMC+01:14:44
BRUTT P.102KAT+01:17:53
GESCHKE S.196ARG+01:19:34
MILLAR D.176GRS+01:21:52
SIMON J.218SOJ+01:26:13
ROJAS J.129MOV+01:26:29
BAK L.22LTB+01:31:06
TRENTIN M.158OPQ+01:42:03
ERVITI I.125MOV+01:48:54
KADRI B.87ALM+01:51:02
GARCIA ECHEGUIBEL E.134COF+01:54:45

Can see the others telling Talansky to p1ss off

Bak, Burghardt, Van Garderen, Bakelants, Voigt, Gautier, Vichot, Kadri, Brutt, Erviti, Rojas, Garcia, Trentin, Millar, Talansky, Albasini, Greschke and Simon

Thanks.

2 of my 3 bets in there! So a bit of interest for the day any way!

Some really strong riders in that group, be interesting to see how much the main GC teams let them go.

Talansky the key to this.

Hopefully he will do a Nibali last year and bugger off and leave them to it.

Looks like Euskatel and Lampre won't let them go, they obviously want a man in the break, so are leading the peleton and the gap isn't growing.

It is brilliant to see a stage like this form.
Though I should be doing something more constructive on a sunny day like today than watch this I feel...

At last Euskatel have finally given up the chase! Now lets see this break go! Froome was not happy with euskatel  at all.

Cav looking for intermed sprint

Betfair needs to shuffle the deck.
Faves to the top please...

Can i edit....
Just back in, needed a refresh.
Sorry

Good stuff, bb66, Happybacker, and Federalski -- now which of those? SP.

God knows who gets this.
Should be exciting though.
If i had to have one I'd say Albasini.

Think Rojas is the best sprinter but would imagiine someone is going to solo away to victory. Not sure who, i hope \burgahrdt or Vichot!
I'm a bit suprised all the GC teams have let Talansky go so far, he is going to be right back in contention  after this, he will be well inside the top 10 and not too far off the top 5!

Don't have anyone, but a s mall green-screen, so will be cheering your picks on Happy. Federalski don't you want Van Garderen, mate?? SP.

Cheers SP.

Yes, Talansky the big winner here before they cross the line -- will work for Millar. SP.

Haha, yeah I want TJ.
I even topped up on him at 40 and 44 when the break formed...

No worries, Happy. Yes, I thought so Federalski. SP.

No one wants to work here -- Simon too good to be allowed to dictate his own terms. SP.

Simon is looking real good.

Simon's suffering for his country looking very good -- Vichot cooked unfortunately. SP.

Think Vichot still looks good for this SP.

I thought he had his opportunity on the final bit of that climb -- hard to bring it back now. SP.

Read on another forum Vichots dad or uncle - cant remember which, won 20 odd years ago to the day... May be written in the stars for him...

...But he gave it his all up that climb... SP

Burghardt Happy -- he's your man -- moving like a winner!! SP.

Brilliant drama!!!

Great stuff!! SP.

Who was on Trentin at 1000 then? Someone had £2 on!

Great finish to a stage, certainly had a run for my money!

I would've never thought it'd be Trentin even in this final drama -- so it wasn't mine. Weren't interested in laying off anything, Happy? SP.

So does this mean we should only look for a Frenchman in tomorrow's stage? SP.

No only had few quid on for interest, so happy to let it run.

They say every year back a Frenchman they will be well up for the win on Bastille day, but i'm sure it's been years since one has won on the day!
And i can't see any frenchman being good enough to be climbing with the main boys tomorrow.

That's why you're the Happybacker. But yes, spot-on, it's their little myth and if Voeckler does a bit of a dance for a few kilometres they'll talk it up like it was a proud day for the country in the Tour, and as good as a win. SP.

Just looking at this Trentin kid from Italy -- doesn't look like he's ever won as a pro -- no surprise about the 1K then -- perhaps it was his dad's money? SP.

No interest in him before the start of the stage, that one £2 bet @ 1000 was all that was matched.

Fair play to Sean Kelly on the Eurosport commentary who called Trentin as the fast man in the break before the finish.

found the guy who had the £2 on

wwwDOTpodiumcafeDOTcom/2013/7/13/4520120/tour-de-france-stage-14-live-second-thread#173112961

he also picked Trentin on the predictor game.

After-timer?
Only since dog's don't speak and therefore can't be called-up as witnesses.
SP.