Tdf: Stage 14 Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule - Lyon - Day for the Break?

I'd go for Albasini to be OGE's man for the break tomorrow

Yes, definitely agree on a breakaway succeeding. Very high chance indeed, if there's no GC dangers involved. Which consequently makes a Sagan lay good value, after he opened-up as a solid 3/1 favourite with the Books. Presently at 5/1 on here suggests a wait-and-see prospect, so far.

Yes Clay, I also believe Clarke will be looking to get into it. He was in the third group on the road in stage 13, so perhaps had an easier time of it, and management have come out saying that they want representation in the breakaway. So, since he's the most likely candidate in the team, and if he's feeling good, it's a good chance he'll be wanting to steal into it.

However, this stage looks like one for the punchy-type Spanish riders, and with this in mind I like Mikel Nieve. He finished in 16th place in the Yellow jersey group of stage 9, and then confirmed his good form by backing-up the next day to Ax 3 Domaines, finishing in 6th place. Far from a prolific winner, his best result this year was in February, in the Tour of the Mediterranean, where he finished 3rd in a similarly hilly stage 5 from Bandol to Grasse over 192 kms. With Euskatel-Euskadi having little to show for their racing across France so far, and with much needed representation on tv, let alone a stage win for the Sapnish fans at home, Nieve is the most likely to give himself an opportunity to get into the breakaway. He opened up at 66/1 with the Books, but at 120/1 on here I think he is excellent value as a rider to work with a breakaway group of many riders, from which a further selection may come.

Good luck to all,
SP

BMC have had a shocker and this could be their last chance saloon. Might throw a few quid on Gilbert

Totally agree with the majority view that it will be a day for the break. Got to think the GC teams will be saving their legs for sunday, and the sprint teams will have their main men so far behind by halfway that they won't be too bothered in chasing the break down either.

Also agree with SP and Clay that Euskatel and BMC are 2 teams that will be looking for this sort of breakaway win now. Maybe also FDJ, Cofidis, sojasun.

So going to have a little on
Burghardt(BMC)150/1 - has won a breakaway stage before, and was very active in Romandie this year
Vichot (FDJ) 80/1 - as mentioned on an earlier stage is a rider in form
Taaramae (Cofidis)200/1 - a very good all rounder on his day, not having the best of tours but capable of doing something if in a break.

Reading some of the teams' comments and general language used about this stage, it's almost like there is an unofficial pact for a breakaway to succeed and allow the peloton to have a relative rest day -- so long as the riders play by the rules and not put a GC danger into it. Still not convinced by Sagan being installed and remaining favourite -- looks more-and-more like a default position, but he's still not in the range of a value lay. Stage 7 was a lumpy stage, not hilly like this one, and Cannondale were smashing-up their team to keep the advantage. Can't see a repeat performance.

Clay -- I think the first cat 3 at 8% might be a bit too steep for Gilbert, will need to be at his best to get over it with enough strength to back-up for the next cat 3 which suits him more.

Happybacker -- for those three teams you've mentioned I'd also envisage Julien Simon for Sojasun, Jeremy Roy for FDJ, and Daniel Navarro for Cofidis actually made my short list -- but not including these as they wouldn't be payed for.

Have added Bardet at 130/1.

Cheers,
SP

I'm sorry SP but a 1.7km climb at 8.2% will be nothing for Gilbert. If the stage finished at it's summit he'd be a favourite. It's also 80km from the finish, they wont be attacking up it Gilbert will have no problems there.

Dope -- when the time comes where you provide some information for your selection, in fact just offer your selection, I might finally consider what you have to say without a smile on my face.

Van Garderen the better option from BMC stable for this.

Cheers,
SP

Pinot for me, won a lumpy stage 8 last year with 7 climbs, exciting young rider and decent chance @ 140 if getting into the break..gl all

I provided 2 picks in this thread already. Navardaukas to win and LAY Nieve - who was available at 900 & 910 before the stage started, enjoy your 150 - he honestly should have been 1000.

apart from stage 9 it seems the 1st attack always was successful, quite different to times of late 90ies and early '00s, when there were numerous attacks with 50km/h average in 1st hour

vichot and kadri in the break

Looks like orica desperate to have someone in the break, as they have done a lot of the chasing down here. Will all be back together again soon, then expect more attacks and sure to be an OGE rider in the mix.

Albasini in it as I predicted, but with Talansky they won't have great freedom, maybe they convince him to drop back

Yeah it's a shame Talanksy is there because i can't see the GC riders giving him much rope.

TALANSKY A.178GRS+00:13:11
BAKELANTS J.42RLT+00:31:29
VAN GARDEREN T.39BMC+00:38:08
GAUTIER C.54EUC+00:43:47
VICHOT A.79FDJ+00:44:25
VOIGT J.48RLT+00:59:28
ALBASINI M.182OGE+01:07:50
BURGHARDT M.33BMC+01:14:44
BRUTT P.102KAT+01:17:53
GESCHKE S.196ARG+01:19:34
MILLAR D.176GRS+01:21:52
SIMON J.218SOJ+01:26:13
ROJAS J.129MOV+01:26:29
BAK L.22LTB+01:31:06
TRENTIN M.158OPQ+01:42:03
ERVITI I.125MOV+01:48:54
KADRI B.87ALM+01:51:02
GARCIA ECHEGUIBEL E.134COF+01:54:45

Bak, Burghardt, Van Garderen, Bakelants, Voigt, Gautier, Vichot, Kadri, Brutt, Erviti, Rojas, Garcia, Trentin, Millar, Talansky, Albasini, Greschke and Simon

2 of my 3 bets in there! So a bit of interest for the day any way!

Some really strong riders in that group, be interesting to see how much the main GC teams let them go.

Hopefully he will do a Nibali last year and bugger off and leave them to it.

It is brilliant to see a stage like this form.
Though I should be doing something more constructive on a sunny day like today than watch this I feel...