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razz
24 May 13 10:33
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Date Joined: 27 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 8,394 | Blogger: razz's blog
Heavyweight Championship: Cain Velasquez (c) vs. Antonio Silva
   
Heavyweight    Junior Dos Santos    vs.    Mark Hunt               
Light Heavyweight    Glover Teixeira    vs.    James Te Huna               
Lightweight    Gray Maynard    vs.    TJ Grant
Lightweight    Donald Cerrone    vs.    K.J. Noons

Preliminary card (FX)
Welterweight    Mike Pyle    vs.    Rick Story               
Featherweight    Dennis Bermudez    vs.    Max Holloway               
Welterweight    Colton Smith    vs.    Robert Whittaker               
Lightweight    Khabib Nurmagomedov    vs.    Abel Trujillo               

Preliminary card (Facebook)
Welterweight    Stephen Thompson    vs.    Nah-Shon Burrell               
Bantamweight    Brian Bowles    vs.    George Roop               
Featherweight    Jeremy Stephens    vs.    Estevan Payan

looking forward to the main card, i'll be going heavy on velasquez, it's been 1 year since he painted the canvas red with silva's blood, really cannot see a different result happening in this one. i can't understand why the odds for cain are slightly better than last time either. bigfoot's last 2 wins were against travis browne who suffered a bad injury at the beginning of their fight and overeem who gassed and had his hands down the entire fight. both of those fights could easily of had a different outcome. velasquez's wins are a lot more one sided and the stats heavily favor cain : http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/05-2013/ufc-160-betting.aspx

the other fights i dont really like from a betting perspective, think cerrone will get the job done so gonna have a small bet on him, but he has looked vulnerable the last 18 months or so. got badly hurt by a body shot against guillard before the hail mary kick, lost via body kick to pettis in a very one sided ass beating, and got a boxing clinic from nate diaz before he succumbed to the sub. he did look pretty good against jeremy stephens but stephens is more of a brawler with huge power than a technical striker. i think cerrone's stock is a little overated here but noons is a good matchup for him, considering kj has won 2( the couture decision was bullshit) of his last 5 fights. noons also cuts easily and gets tagged a fair bit in most of his fights, cerrone has a fairly high output standing so should land some good shots.

hunt vs cigano i can't wait for, really hope junior stands with hunt and doesn't go for a takedown straight away. hunt's only chance of winning is by ko/tko hopefully hunt's in better shape than against struve ( didnt he have some sort of leg injury that prevented him from doing to much cardio in that training camp?) and has been working on his takedown defense.
junior looked disproportionately big in his last fight, not sure why he felt the need to pack on so much muscle. he got rocked a lot in the cain fight and if cain can hurt him then hunt certainly can as well. not gonna bet this fight.

who are you guys going for? post your picks :)
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Report razz May 24, 2013 10:36 AM BST
going small on nurmagomedov and story also.
Report Biscar Two from a mile back May 25, 2013 2:09 PM BST
Plenty of short ones on the card, too short imho.

Velasquez at 1/7 is too short, 4oz gloves and a beast of a man who weighs 19 stone creates enough risk to make that price no value.
I think velasquez will win but do I think that in 8 fights Silva can catch him with something at least once,absolutely.

Cigano V Hunt

Surely Cigano drops down and takes this to the mat despite his willingness to stand and trade.He's a good boxer so he might win the stand-up but he's in a different world to Hunt on the ground and surely that's where he should take it for an easy night.

Teixeira  V Te Huna

There is much hype surrounding Teixeira who has only one big name on his record that of Rampage Jackson,he does have a good background in submission wrestling.Te Huna has been operating at a much lower level though and despite being heavy handed (has had hand injuries) don't think he will be good enough to stop the take down and then the likely submission.

Cerrone V Noons

Cerrone for a while looked the real deal stopping fair fighters at will and showing that he wasn't one dimensional in doing so.However the latest loss to pettis was pretty brutal and seemed to show weakness to body shots.Noons make the step over from strikeforce and has lost 4 of his last 5 which doesn't augur well.The old Cerrone would walk this and I think he will but I'd like to see him again after the bad loss to Pettis so at a best price 4/11 I'd have to just watch.

GL.
Report Biscar Two from a mile back May 25, 2013 2:16 PM BST
fwiw razz

Nurmadomedov missed weight declined to come back and try again and Nah shon Burell missed first time but got to 171 at the 2nd attempt
Report razz May 26, 2013 3:06 PM BST
my wifi cut out for the whole day so couldnt watch any of it Sad . great results for me though, amazed jds knocked out hunt!! apparently hunt broke his toe in the first round and might of affected his movement for the rest of the fight.

velasquez is in a whole different class to bigfoot who i think is fairly overated, he's dangerous yeah but he has such a speed disadvantage against most of the division and his gigantic head makes an easier target, i thought 1.17 was great value( i was sitting at about 1.22 after trading in the weeks before the fight), i woulda priced cain at 1.1 ish tbh. it's hard to see if they hypothetically fought again cain being any higher priced than that.

ahh didnt see the weigh ins, nurmagomedov (had to check 4 times that i spelt that right haha) has some scary wrestling strength someone like him missing weight wouldnt worry me as much as others, also considering the lower class of his opponent

just saw dana white said jds vs cain III is the next title fight, should be good, id rather see cain fight werdum first though.
Report Biscar Two from a mile back May 27, 2013 5:39 PM BST
Nurmagomedov looks a great prospect although he didnt seem to make himself any friends.He misses weight( would have loved to know why) then 10 seconds later he starts a melee by shoving his opponent.After the fight( which he totally dominated and looked great)Dana compares him to Jon Fitch and says he hates all that wrestling $hit,but having pi55ed off DW the day before he wasn't in the good books anyway.

JDS made it harder for himself than he needed to,didn't go for take downs very often and backed up in straight lines into the cage several times which didn't seem the smartest move either.

JDS vs Cain is interesting as both have shown they are able to beat one another.Plenty people asking about the fight being held in Mexico which DW confirmed they were looking at.JDS seemed to think he over trained for the last fight which showed up in a creatinine test.

Werdum fights Big Nog on the 8th June in a battle of BJJ studs.Nog might be damaged good however.

GL
Report razz May 29, 2013 8:38 AM BST
yeah agreed, khabib will be a force to reckon with in a year or two definitely see him in the title picture one day. i think dana and the ufc are trying to build him up for a card in russia one day, that is a potentially huge market for them that has been unexploited so far, the talent level of fighters their could rival brazil and america in the not so distant future imo.

yeah JDS could of  won a lot easier just with the takedowns, but standing with hunt for most of the fight was impressive nonetheless. still don't think he will stand much of a chance in the rubber match though. although i was wrong about the second fight so who knows,  yeah i heard he overtrained for that fight too,  apparently after the fight he was urniating his own muscle fibre because of the extreme pressure he put his body through in camp and the fight, where his muscles started to break down!! [:scared:

liking werdum on the next card, don't like his line as much, but he has looked pretty good in his laqst couple of fights, but he hasnt fought in nearly a year
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