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Sir Denis Eton-Hogg
11 Mar 13 20:27
Date Joined: 16 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 7,725 | Blogger: Sir Denis Eton-Hogg's blog
As there's not many cycling fans on here i thought it might be best to just have a single cycling thread. anyway my 1st contribution to the thread is to suggest that Contador is ludicrously short at around 13/8 to win the tour de france.
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Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg March 27, 2013 4:58 PM GMT
I think he means g thomas!
Report marychain1 March 27, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
Ah, yes I did mean Thomas.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg March 28, 2013 7:16 PM GMT
The TT in last years vuelta was pretty much up and down a big hill so obviously that favoured contador. On a flatter course i think hes pretty average nowadays. Hilarious to think he beat cancellara in the 2009 tour timetrial...
Report marychain1 March 29, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
Who does everyone fancy for Sunday then?

Sagan to win for me
Thomas 25/1, Offredo 125, and Keukelaire 300/1 each way
Report Thesundancekid March 30, 2013 6:26 PM GMT
i went dabbling on offredo too!! im strugglin look past sagan..although with the small money i gamble with hardly seems worthwhile!!
Report lucylucky March 30, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
Bit off the classics topic but I had my biggest bet of the year this weekend.
Tour de France Team Classification: Saxobank Tinkoff 18/1

I absolutely can't fall out of love with this bet. Victor priced it up at the end of last years tour and since then we've had A Schleck give up, F Schleck get a year long ban, Wiggo target the Giro and Saxo sign Roche, Rogers and Kreuziger.

The way I see it:
Sky ride pace all tour as usual and DMs kill themselves (not sure Porte will be able to stick like Froome did last year and we can assume Wiggo will drop off with Giro legs)
Radioshack hopeless?
Saxo boys: Bertie, Rogers, Roche, Kreuziger there or there abouts in every mountain stage and possibly given go ahead for full gas in TTs?

I see Movistar as the nearest threat with Valverde Quintana and other boys juiced up

or am i not seeing this right? I still think 8/1 is a massive bet.
Report marychain1 March 30, 2013 9:47 PM GMT
It looks a stonker at first glance.
Report marychain1 March 30, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
Especially at 18/1
Report marychain1 March 31, 2013 10:00 AM BST
Boonen abandons
Report red and white March 31, 2013 11:36 AM BST
Froome has some engine and I'd love to see him smoke Contador, but I think he's a tactical idiot and wouldn't touch him with a bargepole at the current price.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg April 2, 2013 6:55 PM BST
Why do u think he's a tactical idiot?
Report red and white April 3, 2013 6:25 PM BST
I can think of numerous examples but the main one was burning energy leading out a (losing) sprinter in the Vuelta last year. I recall Brad hinting Froome's wasn't the sharpest tactical brain in the peloton. Think it was in his book. Has mounted stupid attacks in the 2011 Vuelta and last year's Tour. Has the talent but needs to grow up.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg April 3, 2013 8:15 PM BST
Well considering he was never gonna win last years vuelta after a massive effort in le tour i dont think its such a big deal that he did a leadout. It was hardly gonna make a big difference to his gc placing and presumably he was just trying to show his team mates that he wanted to be a team member. I dunno about wiggins' comments, havent read them. As for attacks in the vuelta and tour i cant see how he did stupid attacks. He attacked that time in le tour coz he thought he could make up some time on his gc Rivals and cement 2nd place. He knew it wasnt gonna affect wiggins chances but the team obviously thought it would look bad so called him back. I guess they were just being ultra cautious but it didnt make any difference to the overall result
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg April 3, 2013 8:17 PM BST
I mean cycling isnt exactly rocket science. I'd be amazed if a tactical error cost froome the tour de france
Report lucylucky April 4, 2013 9:41 AM BST
froome's biggest **** up imo was in 2012 Vuelta when he started putting on the burners on coll de la gallina at ridiculous times with no plan (slowing to a halt when bertie had his wheel). but i expect he has learnt a few lessons from his "treasure trove of experience"
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg April 4, 2013 12:32 PM BST
Well if attacking on a climb and then slowing when yr opponent is on yr wheel constitutes inept tactica then that doesnt say much for contador's nous!!
Report marychain1 April 4, 2013 5:14 PM BST
Cycling is the most tactical sport of all imo, nothing else even comes close.
Report marychain1 April 4, 2013 5:15 PM BST
I've got a great bet lined up for the Giro btw. Dont want to say too much yet, but will put it on here once I've got all I want on.
Report bb66 April 7, 2013 9:11 AM BST
are you kidding me, Spartacus 1.9 on Paris-Roubaix after 2 falls during the week?ConfusedCrazy
Report GoBallistic April 7, 2013 9:46 AM BST
On balance I'd still rather be a backer than a layer I think
Report bb66 April 7, 2013 10:29 AM BST
not in race over cobbles where so much can happen
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg April 7, 2013 4:45 PM BST
Cycling is the most tactical sport of all imo, nothing else even comes close.

U cannot be serious
Report layingisthewayforward April 7, 2013 5:53 PM BST
Denis, are you fishing saying cycling isn't tactical?

Anyone else think Quintana is big at 33/1 for the tour?
Report Thesundancekid April 7, 2013 7:31 PM BST
sceptical with quintana mate...god knows who they will favour as team got some real good climbers.
Who do people fancy for amstel gold race?!
Report marychain1 April 10, 2013 12:25 PM BST
I said I had a decent bet for The Giro and would tell all once I'm on, well I am now so here goes. It's a bit of a longshot but not without a chance and in my eyes he's vastly overpriced.

Diego Ulissi for GC. I've got £10ew on at 500/1 (Coral), and a further £10ew on split between VC and Paddy Power at 300/1.

What are the positives? He's an improving Italian climber and time trialler, who has a decent chance of being main or joint main GC hope for an Italian team in the Giro. If we look at his performances in week long stage races and Grand Tours we can see a picture of continued improvement from 2010-2013. He performed admirably in Paris-Nice, including the Col d'Eze mountain time trial, which is very similar to the mountain TT in the Giro. He also impressed in several stages in The Tour of The Basque Country. He will lose time in the flat 55k ITT but there is evidence to show his time trialling is improving fast. There's also a question mark over whether he or Scarponi will be the main GC hope for Lampre but in my eyes Ulissi is better than both Scarponi and Cunego now, and even 300/1 is still several times bigger than Ulissi's true chances.
Report marychain1 April 10, 2013 12:57 PM BST
I've also backed Porte and Pinot for tdf at 66/1 and 100/1
Report lucylucky April 12, 2013 12:36 AM BST
as soon as you said you had a bet for the giro i knew it would be ulissi mc. i didnt bother because no one lays me bets but its a cracking each way. cunego should be way past it by now so strong chance of team lead. im kind of wishing i had a big lump on wiggo at 6/4 during the first stage basque when he looked well up for it. i wouldnt be backing porte at all as he'll be firmly DM duties with no gas in TTs being skys #3.

i wouldnt say quintana is "big" at that price. - may've peaked too early, too young, wont be team leader, not good enough? are all negatives.

any more thoughts on saxo team classification anyone? i keep having dreams of riis injecting the saxo boys mid tour but then also nightmares of herrada, quintana and valverde winning it for movistar.
Report lucylucky April 12, 2013 12:43 AM BST
sorry that should read first stage of catalunya*

also i think nfl and cycling are pretty tactical in terms of game theory and i enjoy both.

also thoughts on amstel gold? henao or maybe tom jelte slagter could get up that ramp first at big prices?
Report marychain1 April 15, 2013 11:30 AM BST
I had a treble with two football matches that won leaving me a tidy sum on Sagan for Amstel Gold, think it might have been one race too far.
Report lucylucky April 16, 2013 10:24 AM BST
i went big on gerrans 16/1ew with skybet after i realised the course was changed and they were doing 4 places! i wasnt surprised sagan didnt get up with the first group. looking at fleche wallone atm, but not betting until purito status is confirmed.
Report marychain1 April 17, 2013 7:52 AM BST
I've taken Sagan at 17/2 with Pads. That price is surely too much of an overreaction to Sunday. I've also baaked a few at small steaks each way, Betancur, Ulissi & Mollema. Main bet Sagan though.
Report OnTheEdgeofInsanity April 19, 2013 5:03 PM BST
Ulissi is not doing the Giro (or TdF). Scarponi is their GC man.
Report lucylucky April 19, 2013 10:31 PM BST
sorry i keep after timing but i never expected gilbert or sagan to get up the hill and place layed sagan 9/4 and layed gilbert 3/1. i backed dan martin vs vannendert at 7/4 too.

other cycling bets this week- i went for lampre 300/1 in the trentino team time trial because Sky and BMC looked way too short with those lineups.

massive stab in the dark- ive piled into rolland for liege 150/1ew

sorry i forgot about scarponi, i guess ulissi has no chance then. wiggo at 6/4 will be my play for giro (im assuming he will drift)
Report marychain1 April 21, 2013 7:10 AM BST
Ive done Nibali 12/1 ew with billies, & Samuel Sanchez 33s and Kreuziger 40s with joke orals, cos they're paying 4 places. They've all got decent records in this. Sanchez looked like he's in decent nick in the Tour of the Basque Country.
Report ClayDavis April 21, 2013 12:22 PM BST
I like Nibali e/w too
Report marychain1 April 30, 2013 9:22 AM BST
I'm intrigued by Saxo Tinkoff's team for the Giro. It looks to me like their main GC hope is Rafal Majka. Not someone that is very familiar to me, but looking at his past results I've had a little dabble at 300/1.
Report marychain1 May 1, 2013 6:27 PM BST
Also took some of the 25/1 for young rider that Stan James were offering about Rafal Majka, into 5s now.
Report Flying_V May 2, 2013 1:35 PM BST
Got santambrogio e/w at 200 for the Giro. Podium play. Getting anything on ap at long odds is a struggle...
Report manafana May 3, 2013 12:49 PM BST
I have a bit up on my blog for this years giro
Report marychain1 May 4, 2013 9:08 PM BST
Its a total joke they havent even got Stage 2 markets up yet
Report marychain1 May 6, 2013 1:05 PM BST
Everyone seems to be after Bouhanni today. I'm not convinced the sprinters will get over the climbs.

Gatto, Felline and Pozzato for me.
Report marychain1 May 7, 2013 12:36 PM BST
Paolini was the last one I crossed off the shortlist yesterday Cry

Today Santambrogio has obvious claims, but at a bigger price I've taken Betancur and Sammy Sanchez
Report marychain1 May 7, 2013 9:13 PM BST
Both mine in the final group but the rain put paid to any chances of winning. Sprinters favoured again tomorrow but I dont think so.
Report marychain1 May 8, 2013 10:45 AM BST
Two for today both 33/1 4 places

Marco Marcato
Sacha Modolo
Report Flying_V May 8, 2013 12:23 PM BST
bouhanni for me today..e/w.
should be another good day.
Report Dope May 9, 2013 10:23 AM BST
marychain1 (and anyone else interested) you should start playing the 'GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME' at Podiumcafe dot com - Yes you'd be 5/6 stages behind but it's still good fun. ;)
Report marychain1 May 11, 2013 9:24 AM BST
im doing Wheelie bets giro competition with Dan Lloyd and co.

On Wiggins and Kessiakoff today. Think one to watch is Johan Le Bon of fdj
Report marychain1 May 11, 2013 9:32 AM BST
Taken £1.34 ew on Johan Le Bon at 600/1 with Bet £3.65. Awaiting confirmation of what price im allowed for my other £3.66 ew.
Report bristol county caravans May 11, 2013 9:53 AM BST
Johan 500/1 at bv mary.
Report marychain1 May 11, 2013 12:19 PM BST
What a joke Betfair are. Neither Wiggins or Evans listed in the "Rider in Pink" market even though they are probably the two most likely candidates at the end of Stage 8.

Loads of potential podium names missing from the Stage 8 winner & top 3 markets as well.

Sort it out Betfair.
Report Dope May 11, 2013 12:56 PM BST
They take their rider lists for the stage markets from bet 365 and ignore anyone over 200/1
Report Janthefish May 13, 2013 9:08 PM BST
No betting up for tomorrow's stage
Report Janthefish May 13, 2013 9:11 PM BST
ps thanks Dope- Podiumcafe a good site.
Report marychain1 May 14, 2013 12:46 PM BST
Taken Evans and Pozzovivo for the Giro Spreadsheet today.

Backed Evans at 14/1, Atapuma at 40/1 and Duarte at 80/1 and had a little tickle on Machado and Millar once the break formed.
Report bb66 May 14, 2013 1:25 PM BST
bad weather predicted for the whole week, bad news for Wiggo. Hope Nibali delivers, as I've layed Evans and Scarponi
Report Flying_V May 15, 2013 2:08 PM BST
well...couldn't help but have a small interest on Sammy Sanchez today [S 11]....That profile will suck me in every time...
Report johnnie allen May 15, 2013 7:22 PM BST
I don't suppose there's much chance of getting this Declan guy commentating on the TDF. He seems to know his stuff and doesn't feel the need for hysterics. Carlton Kirby really gets on my t1ts. Giro, Tour of California and Tour of Norway tonight.
Report nugget May 16, 2013 2:16 AM BST
extremely boring race so far, hope it improves
Report geoff m May 16, 2013 4:11 PM BST
wiggo well and truly struggling cant keep up on flaT
Report Dr Gonzo May 16, 2013 4:42 PM BST

extremely boring race so far, hope it improves

Agreed. I know part of Quigley's job is to talk things up, but couldn't believe it earlier when he was talking about what an exciting race it's been.
Report Flying_V May 17, 2013 11:46 AM BST
One more place available on the Giro podium now. Come on Mauro...
Report nugget May 17, 2013 4:14 PM BST
was wiggins a fluke
Report nugget May 17, 2013 4:27 PM BST
I think wiggins will retire
Report nugget May 17, 2013 4:31 PM BST
wiggins looks like he needs a sandwich
Report nugget May 17, 2013 4:55 PM BST
hopefully the tour will make up for this ordinary giro
Report nugget May 17, 2013 5:10 PM BST
how many jerseys will nibali win in this giro?
Report bb66 May 19, 2013 4:48 PM BST
where has Sanchez been caught on the Galibier? Could have backed Visconti with my whole bank if they had shown thisCry
Report marychain1 May 19, 2013 11:32 PM BST
I have hit the post so much in this Giro. Had Duarte and Majka today and they came 4th and 5th...

My 300/1 on Majka looks like its going to come up just short, but the 25/1 on the young rider jersey is looking promising.

Big shame for me is still my 500s on Diego Ulissi. Coral have refunded my steaks but Vietcong Bet are refusing saying it was antepost. Understandable I suppose. But when I see what Niemeic has achieved as Lampre's supposed second GC rider it makes me think Ulissi could well have threatened the podium Cry
Report dead pop stars May 20, 2013 8:38 PM BST
1st post on the forum for about a million years and 1st look for a while
just to say good luck flying with your santambrogio bet ,will be cheering him on from this point
Report Flying_V May 21, 2013 1:39 PM BST
Cheers DPS. Nice to hear from you.
Think he has a real chance of the podium now. All media attention on Uran...and rightly so...but Santambrogio looked great on Sat up to Bardoneccia.
Can't help thinking [hoping?] he will take time on one or both of the big dolomite finishes. Not sure of Evans up those gradients either...
We will see...but it's been a nice ride.
Report Flying_V May 21, 2013 4:08 PM BST
Ha! Nice timing!
Report lucylucky May 21, 2013 10:38 PM BST
can someone lay me a price carlos betancur gets a suspension for doping in the next 3 years?
Report KIMBLE May 21, 2013 11:28 PM BST
yeah 1.05
Report dead pop stars May 23, 2013 12:45 AM BST
srry flying
sods law
will keep stum next time
Report nugget May 23, 2013 7:49 AM BST
nibali is a disgrace if he doesnt win the mountain tt
Report bb66 May 23, 2013 4:23 PM BST
demolition even in worse conditions in the rain
Report Geesyerdosh May 23, 2013 8:44 PM BST
Can't bet on the Giro or the Vuelta. Just don't trust the results.
Report Janthefish May 24, 2013 10:41 PM BST
Not betting on it again, saw route and thought 'nothing decided until stage 19' seems everyone knew that wouldn't happen, except me.
Report Janthefish May 24, 2013 10:42 PM BST
Nibali a worthy winner on course but toughest tests not ridden
Report nugget May 26, 2013 2:05 PM BST
bravo nibali, easily the strongest rider in this race
cav the most impressive performance of the race for me
Report lucylucky June 1, 2013 2:17 AM BST
hoovered up some suckers today backing brad and made an easy £40. saxo bank team classification gets a boost!
Report lucylucky June 1, 2013 2:20 AM BST
haha the suckers betvictor go 9/4 radioshack team classification. presumably they think the pensioners zubeldia kloden and horner have had some special winter fuel allowances.
Report nugget June 11, 2013 7:43 AM BST
Peter Sagan for the points jersery in the TdF is a gift
Report Tavaris Jackson June 12, 2013 12:33 PM BST
I count 7 stages that Cavendish should be able to get to the finish in the lead group.
Report nugget June 29, 2013 4:16 PM BST
Sagan is home and hosed
Report nugget July 16, 2013 2:02 AM BST
lucky for Wiggins that Froome let him win last year
Report rob_dylan July 17, 2013 5:19 AM BST
Froome is 3/1 to win tdf2014.  Does anyone know why? 

He is streets ahead of everyone this year, thought he would be evens or 6/4 max.
Report buddeliea July 17, 2013 7:12 AM BST
Nibali?,Wiggins?,Quintana with more experience??

3 valid reasons imo
Report bb66 July 17, 2013 7:31 AM BST
not Wiggins
Report buddeliea July 17, 2013 6:43 PM BST
ok,2 then.
Report rob_dylan July 18, 2013 6:31 AM BST
Buddeliea... Those two reasons, add contador and others to the mix, plus the chance of a crash, an injury etc...   Still think 3/1 is way to long.
Report buddeliea July 18, 2013 7:10 AM BST
Given all the possibilities what could happen over a year, likely opposition, Think 3/1 is about right, but its a nice bet for you!!
Report bb66 July 18, 2013 10:27 AM BST
it's impossible to know how his preparation for the Tour 2014 will work out, and that's the main issue
Report rob_dylan July 18, 2013 11:21 AM BST
Well I am happy with those risks.  Wouldnt be so happy if they were offering evens, but 3/1 is a stand out bet for me.  Gonna sign up and put a lump on now.
Report lucylucky July 21, 2013 9:39 PM BST
Allez Saxo! biggest bet of the year landed two years running (Wiggins SPOTY 16/1 last year)

So who's going to win la Vuelta then? Betancur?
Report GoBallistic July 21, 2013 11:12 PM BST
I suppose Nibali will be favorite. Giro re-run except extreme heat instead of extreme cold.

The parcours is ridiculous even by Vuelta standards. At least 10 mountain top finishes, no downhill finishes and just one ITT (over a hill). No surprise Wiggins is giving it a miss
Report bb66 August 1, 2013 6:16 PM BST
OPQ signing Uran for the next 2 years as  GC rider for the Grand Tours, Cav won't be happyGrin
Report GoBallistic August 1, 2013 7:47 PM BST
They got Renshaw to lead him out so I think he'll be ecstatic. Petacchi as well
Report bb66 August 1, 2013 10:27 PM BST
Petacci won't ride the Tour, Uran will need some support in the mountains, so the lead out Train will probably consist of Martin and Renshaw only
Report CJ70 August 2, 2013 8:47 AM BST
I don't see the OPQS team changing much unless Chavanel leaves. Kwiatowski had Velits this year as well as having to do train duties.

Swap Pineau and Steegmans with Uran and Renshaw from this squad and you'll probably get something similar in June 2014.
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