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11 Mar 13
20:27
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Date Joined:
16 Nov 08
As there's not many cycling fans on here i thought it might be best to just have a single cycling thread. anyway my 1st contribution to the thread is to suggest that Contador is ludicrously short at around 13/8 to win the tour de france.
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Think there both way too short at the top of the market, love sum1 new to have a real shout this year, honestly don't think wiggins had much to beat last year. As sure as night follows day, froomes's not gonna have it as easy and he would be lay. I am pleased to see the team time trial back.
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Would agree re Contadors price
Interesting to see race director of Tirreno Adriatico apologising for yesterdays stage. Personally thought it was brilliant to see the pros having to get off & walk up the 27% gradient. Having had to bail out on Rosedale Chimney 1 in 3 last year I was gutted @ the time but don't feel so bad know. |
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to be fair to them i think the reason some were walking was coz they were brought to a halt by other riders in the way. virtually impossible to get riding again and prob quicker just to walk! also the rain meant the back wheels were slipping making it even more difficult. Sagan did each ascent in the saddle so his wheel didnt slip!!
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just had a wee bet on Porte for le tour at 300/1 each way.
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alright lads...nice to see there is a cycling thread, despite how few of us there are chatting...whats up with everyone!! i personally cant believe the odds of pierre rolland on the exchange prices, just nibbled up a bit of him at 159/1.... couldn't resist teejay van garderen...river verdon, you said someone new may have a chance, how about my two boys' chances??
Closer to grand tours to more betting options come available on the exchange markets? How about gambling on the classics? |
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I've asked for a market for Tour of Flanders on Sunday. Although I think Sagan is a shoe-in and cant be beat, I've got a couple I want to get onside and am holding out on backing them on the high street for now.
As for the Tour, I think its between Contador and Froome. I like Rolland and I'm sure he'll win a stage and get a top 10, but he'll lose time in the time trials again. I think in the long term FDJ's Thibault Pinot has more chance of challenging for the top step of the podium. They have got a lot of talented young riders and it will be interesting to see if some of them, (Jeannessson, Elissonde, Soupe) can support him in the high mountains. Elissonde and Soupe in particular look very talented, and Elissonde is one to keep an eye on for a couple of the mountain stages in the Giro if thats where he is aimed. Froome's campaign so far resembles Wiggo's in 2012 my eyes. I think he is the one man that can worry Contador. Sky will have a strong team, but so will Contador. The acquisitions of Rogers and Roche are surely Saxo's way of evening things up. I'd like to get involved if I could find a position but to me it looks like the market has it about right, and there's nothing to be gained by going in now as I think the prices will be largely similar at the start of July. If I was going to get involved now it would be to lay the big two, just because there's a chance one or both won't make it to the start line, never mind the finish line, but I'm sure the winner comes from one of them. |
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Rolland not good enough and TJ won't even be team leader and looks pretty bad this year.
Agree its between Bertie and Froomie but give VDB a small squeek. |
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Small brag but I backed Dan Martin 40/1ew for Catalunya after Stage 2 last week.
Have taken Durbridge 12/1 for Pannes (if he TTs like he has before he can win) Have taken Chavanel 20/1 for Flanders (form of his life, loves the course, might be able to get away) |
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Amazed at the Contador love here. A shocking price for le tour imo. Really dont think he TTs well enough nowadays to be a tour winner. Think people are forgetting its not 2009 anymore and he has to do it all without any, ahem, assistance. Froome should be fav but I think he's plenty short enough at the price. Cant believe no-one else is talking about Porte. Can see him doing a Froome 2012, and maybe has a squeak to win if Froome has any problems
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Contador looked pretty good in the TT in the Vuelta, and whilst I expect him to lose time to Froome it wouldn't be a lot.
Anyone fancy G for Flanders? 25/1 looks a fair enough price. |
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That was an astonishing performance by Cav! His lead out train went so early and he blew Griepel away.
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Sir Denis, you saw me have a big pop at Bertie in la vuelta 2012 and failed from an impossible position. He is undefeated in grand tour entries bar 2011 tour after a giro win- you cant get away from that record + commitment to cheating by himself and bjarn. It's first across the line that wins the money in cycling betting.
While Froome has the biggest engine atm, he could easily find a way to lose by being a fool and Bertie is yet to "peak". And no marychain if you mean Gilbert, would much rather back Chavanel at half the price. I've been backing Cav a lot lately. Looks absolutely massive at 13/8 for green jersey. |
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I think he means g thomas!
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Ah, yes I did mean Thomas.
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The TT in last years vuelta was pretty much up and down a big hill so obviously that favoured contador. On a flatter course i think hes pretty average nowadays. Hilarious to think he beat cancellara in the 2009 tour timetrial...
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Who does everyone fancy for Sunday then?
Sagan to win for me Thomas 25/1, Offredo 125, and Keukelaire 300/1 each way |
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i went dabbling on offredo too!! im strugglin look past sagan..although with the small money i gamble with hardly seems worthwhile!!
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Bit off the classics topic but I had my biggest bet of the year this weekend.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/team-classification Tour de France Team Classification: Saxobank Tinkoff 18/1 I absolutely can't fall out of love with this bet. Victor priced it up at the end of last years tour and since then we've had A Schleck give up, F Schleck get a year long ban, Wiggo target the Giro and Saxo sign Roche, Rogers and Kreuziger. The way I see it: Sky ride pace all tour as usual and DMs kill themselves (not sure Porte will be able to stick like Froome did last year and we can assume Wiggo will drop off with Giro legs) Radioshack hopeless? Saxo boys: Bertie, Rogers, Roche, Kreuziger there or there abouts in every mountain stage and possibly given go ahead for full gas in TTs? I see Movistar as the nearest threat with Valverde Quintana and other boys juiced up or am i not seeing this right? I still think 8/1 is a massive bet. |
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It looks a stonker at first glance.
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Especially at 18/1
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Boonen abandons
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Froome has some engine and I'd love to see him smoke Contador, but I think he's a tactical idiot and wouldn't touch him with a bargepole at the current price.
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Why do u think he's a tactical idiot?
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I can think of numerous examples but the main one was burning energy leading out a (losing) sprinter in the Vuelta last year. I recall Brad hinting Froome's wasn't the sharpest tactical brain in the peloton. Think it was in his book. Has mounted stupid attacks in the 2011 Vuelta and last year's Tour. Has the talent but needs to grow up.
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Well considering he was never gonna win last years vuelta after a massive effort in le tour i dont think its such a big deal that he did a leadout. It was hardly gonna make a big difference to his gc placing and presumably he was just trying to show his team mates that he wanted to be a team member. I dunno about wiggins' comments, havent read them. As for attacks in the vuelta and tour i cant see how he did stupid attacks. He attacked that time in le tour coz he thought he could make up some time on his gc Rivals and cement 2nd place. He knew it wasnt gonna affect wiggins chances but the team obviously thought it would look bad so called him back. I guess they were just being ultra cautious but it didnt make any difference to the overall result
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I mean cycling isnt exactly rocket science. I'd be amazed if a tactical error cost froome the tour de france
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froome's biggest **** up imo was in 2012 Vuelta when he started putting on the burners on coll de la gallina at ridiculous times with no plan (slowing to a halt when bertie had his wheel). but i expect he has learnt a few lessons from his "treasure trove of experience"
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Well if attacking on a climb and then slowing when yr opponent is on yr wheel constitutes inept tactica then that doesnt say much for contador's nous!!
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Cycling is the most tactical sport of all imo, nothing else even comes close.
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I've got a great bet lined up for the Giro btw. Dont want to say too much yet, but will put it on here once I've got all I want on.
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are you kidding me, Spartacus 1.9 on Paris-Roubaix after 2 falls during the week?
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On balance I'd still rather be a backer than a layer I think
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not in race over cobbles where so much can happen
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Cycling is the most tactical sport of all imo, nothing else even comes close.
U cannot be serious |
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Denis, are you fishing saying cycling isn't tactical?
Anyone else think Quintana is big at 33/1 for the tour? |
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sceptical with quintana mate...god knows who they will favour as team leader...movistar got some real good climbers.
Who do people fancy for amstel gold race?! |
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I said I had a decent bet for The Giro and would tell all once I'm on, well I am now so here goes. It's a bit of a longshot but not without a chance and in my eyes he's vastly overpriced.
Diego Ulissi for GC. I've got £10ew on at 500/1 (Coral), and a further £10ew on split between VC and Paddy Power at 300/1. What are the positives? He's an improving Italian climber and time trialler, who has a decent chance of being main or joint main GC hope for an Italian team in the Giro. If we look at his performances in week long stage races and Grand Tours we can see a picture of continued improvement from 2010-2013. He performed admirably in Paris-Nice, including the Col d'Eze mountain time trial, which is very similar to the mountain TT in the Giro. He also impressed in several stages in The Tour of The Basque Country. He will lose time in the flat 55k ITT but there is evidence to show his time trialling is improving fast. There's also a question mark over whether he or Scarponi will be the main GC hope for Lampre but in my eyes Ulissi is better than both Scarponi and Cunego now, and even 300/1 is still several times bigger than Ulissi's true chances. |
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I've also backed Porte and Pinot for tdf at 66/1 and 100/1
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as soon as you said you had a bet for the giro i knew it would be ulissi mc. i didnt bother because no one lays me bets but its a cracking each way. cunego should be way past it by now so strong chance of team lead. im kind of wishing i had a big lump on wiggo at 6/4 during the first stage basque when he looked well up for it. i wouldnt be backing porte at all as he'll be firmly DM duties with no gas in TTs being skys #3.
i wouldnt say quintana is "big" at that price. - may've peaked too early, too young, wont be team leader, not good enough? are all negatives. any more thoughts on saxo team classification anyone? i keep having dreams of riis injecting the saxo boys mid tour but then also nightmares of herrada, quintana and valverde winning it for movistar. |