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No one is making a challenge to the GC in the mountains, the sprints (which are always the most exciting part) aren't materialising since the peloton is allowing breakaways on many of the sprint stages, and there are few uphill finishes which is allowing the peloton to stay together and the classifications have been in the same order almost since the start. As a tour this one really stinks.
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No-one is challenging in the mountains? Wait til Wednesday and Thursday...scary looking stages.
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at least we dont have to watch pantani go up mountains like a ski lift. at least were watching something real.
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Cav sitting in 2nd place on a Cat 1 was the final biscuit for me yesterday. Truly pathetic
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the real G.C. drama never happens on the flat stages, or the medium mountains, or in stages where the biggest hills are 140k from home. Do people honestly expect riders to attack and then hold off the peloton for 100 miles in an individual break? Often people hide their light under a bushel in the first set of mountain stages too.
Wednesday and Thursday sees some unbelievable climbs, and the Tour will be decided on those two days. There will be fireworks imo. |
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what a load of cack. i suppose when armstrong was dominating 7 tours in a row on his EPO motorbike that was exciting was it?? clearly this guys seen about 5 minutes of cycling in his life. As for this laughable expectation that the GC riders should be launching mad attacks up every incline in the tour - get real.
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tend not to agree with that marychain although you maybe right of course (about wednesday and thursday)...sky are controlling the fractions and the only man who can do damage in the mountains on wednesday and thursday is chris froome....nibali may have a pop but sky will pull him back and cadel just hasn't had the legs all tour...
have to say i love the race but was seriously against wiggins because of the fact he is an average climber...wednesday and thursday may tell us more but i can see a few breaks but neither nibali or cadel have the teams to back them up... agree about yesterdays stage but it was poor no matter how you cut it and has been an unsatisfactory tour as a spectacle as eluded to by harter |
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I think the most surprising thing about this tour is that in 15 stages not one cyclist has been booted for steroids.
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I can never understand the utter pointlessness of starting a day with two tough climbs, only to then have it fairly flat for 100kms, or whatever it was on one day.
I think that I said on another thread that the reason for there being fewer summit/uphill finishes is that towns pay a small fortune to host stage finishes, and big towns tend to be in the valleys and flatlands, not at the top of hills. |
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Very good point re Sky, Wiggo, Froome, Nibali and Evans. The only man capable of beating Wiggo is Froome. So it has become stale.
Next year should be a cracker with Froome, A Schleck, Contador, Tejay van Garderen and Thibaut Pinot battling it out - and maybe, just maybe, Peter Sagan |
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yes froome, alberto and andy schleck up the mountain next year, cannot wait for that, there will be no hiding place...sagan would have to have a big transition to become a gc rider but you never know he is an exceptional talent for sure...van garderen is still has a lot to prove and if bmc are anything to go by he would need a stronger team to have a chance.
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Wednesday is full of mental climbs. It will be different from everything we've seen so far. The Tourmalet is steep, and at the sort of altitude that Wiggins doesnt like. It comes straight after The Aubisque. Plus there's two further C1s, that are horrible. I think Wiggins will first isolated, then attacked. He probably wont have the luxury of Rogers and Porte dictating the pace by the later climbs. By the time of the Peyresourde we will be down to a very small group. If Froome is going to make his bid for glory this is where it will happen. I predict Nibali will attack on the Peyresourde, and has a very good chance of making up a heap of time if Wiggins does crack. If he does he wont come back on this descent either, teammates or not, its much steeper than the other descents we've ended on, and doesnt flatten out.
Check this out; very interesting http://www.podiumcafe.com/2012/7/5/3134330/2012-tour-de-france-mountains-preview |
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Despite the uphill finish, Thursday's route probably isnt quite as scary but still has three of the toughest 10 mountains in this year's renewal, and will really test the legs following Wednesday's nightmarish stage.
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thanks marychain...
agree brutal but do you think nibali has it him to take enough out of wiggins to let froome off the hook?? |
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If I was BMC I would send TJVG out early on Wednesday, maybe at the bottom of The Tourmalet. He's near enough in the GC and is a good enough time trialler that it will make Sky very uncomfortable, especially if he's in a group of decent climbers, and it will make them go at an early pace that they wont want to, in order to cover the move. This will give the real climbers a decent chance to make Wiggins struggle late on.
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With due respect, I must disagree with you mc. Sky will train it up the mountains just like on all the rest. Rogers and Porte will follow EBH and Knees and (as per virtually all the other decent climbs we have seen) Evans and Nibali will be isolated long before Sky has lost more than two of their 5. Nibali will attack on the downhill and make some seconds ... or break his neck trying.
Froome v Wiggins probably won't happen but we can watch and hope! |
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agree brutal but do you think nibali has it him to take enough out of wiggins to let froome off the hook??
If someone starts putting big time into Wiggins, it'll probably be too late to unleash Froome. It might work out OK for Froome if Wiggins cracked quickly and completely, but if he's just unable to keep pace, then whoever puts the time in will already have put a pack of time into Froome too. |
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What we are talking about hasn't happened in Dauphine, Romandie, Paris-Nice, any stage so far. It is unlikely to happen ......but just might and that is why we will all be watching .... and betting on our hunches.
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Having men around you on steeper slopes isn't actually all that helpful to a riders overall performance or protection.
What it does do is give you moral support, allow you not to drop back for water, provide insurance in case of mechanicals, and give you the help you need if you have to be paced back on on the downhills and in the valleys. Sky have seemingly enhanced this by getting their pacing absolutely on the nose so Wiggins has one less thing to concern himself with. |
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Completely agree; pacing is the thing - they did so much on Teide that they know what speed puts them on the edge of going into the red.
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That's the difference between a week-long stage race and a three-week long stage race. Especially when you've been in yellow for ten days. And even more especially when you dont know if your super-domestique is ready to drop you and attack. Knees will be gone halfway up the first climb. EBH will be gone by the first few kms of the Tourmalet. Rogers and Porte will have to do a LOT of work, and they are both going to be shagged after two weeks of work.
I think we're going to see something different on Wednesday and Thursday, and if Wiggo comes through it no-one will be able to question he deserves to win the Tour. |
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But the best climber in the race - Froome - is on the lead.
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looking at the stage further there is definitely going to be more pressure put on sky and can see action...its just whether like you say can the pack tenderise the meat before the vital climbs of the stage...there is chances
the key is to get sky out the comfort zone and the way the schlecks have put other teams under pressure in recent tours has been pressure from the start of a stage like this...and then come the last 2 climbs wiggins will be isolated...can nibali do it though?? and if he cannot its just going to be froome giving wiggins his wheel and the tour will be over... cadel cannot as he has had no legs all tour and also have the other teams got it them to take sky off the front and set the pulsating fractions that will take bradley into the zone we know he cannot handle... |
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unless they give the other guys motorbikes wiggo aint coming out of his comfort zone
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Going back to the original question, while I would never miss a stage, this is one of the most predictable from a GC perspective that I can remember. One of the characteristics is that there were so few podium possibilities coming out of the Alps, 5 or if Van Garderen is is let free, perhaps 6. Even last year, which was hardly vintage, there were still several in podium contention and 3-4 possible winners in the last week. Injuries and poor form for Menchov, Sanchez, Valverde etc., plus excellent execution by Sky on the back of some great preparation seem to be the main reasons for this. I hope that Marychain's predictions for action on Wed and Thur match his punting prowess, but I'm not optimistic.
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Almost zero drama or excitement to date unfortunately. Wiggins also seems to lack a bit of personality or charisma which isn't helping either.
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The problem with this Tour is twofold. First the rider who can beat Wiggo is on the same team. No one else capable of beating him. And second is the route. Lack of mountain top finishes. Cat 1 climbs 60+ K from the finish etc etc
So unless Froome attacks Wiggo then this Tour is going to have a fairly predictable end to it |
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guys there's a lot more to the tour than just the GC. and as for wiggo lacking personality - i dunno what yr idea of 'personality' is but it obviously isnt the same as mine.
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too many uneventful stages,hope wed and thursday shake it up
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I like Wiggo, I think he's good for the sport. Just not convinced he is that good a climber is all. He's pretty much brilliant at everything else
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And second is the route. Lack of mountain top finishes. Cat 1 climbs 60+ K from the finish etc etc
Has absolutely killed it Clay. It's simply not worth the bother of attacking (for GC) in such cases. The one that really p*ssed me off is the stage that Millar won (not that it reflects badly on him). What is the point of including two climbs that would have been worthwhile elsewhere at the front end of the stage, only to have it as good as flat for more than 100km afterwards, albeit with a bit of a ramp at the end. |
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Wiggins also seems to lack a bit of personality or charisma which isn't helping either.
The French actually quite like him, although they don't like Sky much. Probably helps that he's cycled for two or three francophone teams and is fairly fluent. |
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As anyone seen that wifi interview after he won the tour of romandie? It's well funny, it's in French and he's taking the piss out of the journalists. I'll try and find a link.
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Wiggins* interview (damn autocorrect)
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Wiggins* interview (damn autocorrect)
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http://road.cc/content/news/57430-thats-entertainment-bradley-wiggins-reinvents-post-race-press-conference-video
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I agrre this is far from a spectacular tour, mainly due to the route layout lacking many mountain top finishes and attacking climbers. I don't expect much to happen the next 2 days either, this year it's taylormade for Brad.
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rubbish tour, free contador, fix schleck, find rodriguez, then we got a race
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We need someone to do a Landis-like charge to challenge Wiggins
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I think Frank Schleck was considering it........but
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