TdF Stage 15

As a group those prices make them a little shorter than 1/2; probably not far off right. Among the group, Greipel and Cav are average prices. I'd say Greipel deserved to be shorter than average. Sagan has had a hard, but productive, day; Goss seems to have lost the will; Cav could do anything.

I'd say it was a fair to good bet.

bet365 opened 9/1 on cav, amazing considering surely stage wins have to be on the cards for him to still be here?

Cav has his eyes on Paris next Sunday. Nothing else imo. Plus Sky will be ablse to help him next Sunday knowing Wiggo is safe

Greipel is going to be 2/1 best price in half an hour.

Only Sprint chance before next Friday and Sunday. I cannot imagine break getting away too far as too amny teams are sprinter focussed. Cav looks big to me but Greipel will take some pegging back.

Given their past rivalry, T think Cav will be highly motivated by Greipel's 3 wins to his 1.  Probably no Sky train though.  Also Goss at the odds.

I'm not sure this will be a bunch sprint. Its lumpy all day, and looks ripe for a breakaway to me. The three climbs towards the end of the stage may not have a patch on Mont St Clair, they are still going to take some getting over at the into the third week.

Even if a breakaway doesnt stay out, I'm not that convinced that Cav, Griepel and Goss will be on the premises and I think Sagan could well be feeling his exertions from today.

So that leaves me with Edvald Boassen Hagen. EBH will take over the sprinting duties for Sky if Cav isnt around, he's well capable of winning sprints against all but the top two or three guys, as he's shown throughout his career, but again recently in the Dauphine and with his 3rd on Saturday. Also, there's a chance EBH could get into a break today. They have brought him here to win stages, and this one looks a good chance. Normally, he'd stay with yellow, but with a rest day on Tuesday they might let him have his head.

So EBH 35/1. Also reckon FDJ and Euskadi will be amongst the teams desperate to make a break stick, so with this in mind I have had smaller bets on Fedrigo and Azanza at 50/1 and 200/1.

Good luck gang

had a nibble at 65.0 on EBH as you're the resident judge marychain

Betting 1/3 the top four on here. Short enough?

Goss is the enigma here. After his 30 point penalty he seems to have given up chasing green, but may still fancy a pop at a stage win. Those hills in the second half of the stage today may count against him though. Might have a dabble if he drifts a bit from the current 10/1.

I wonder whether Orica GE might try a different tactic today, and stick Gerrans in the breakaway group? If they do I really dont know who will bother chasing it down.

I'd love to see a breakaway group with EBH and Gerrans in it. Can only dream...

Added Gerrans 100/1 each way with Paddy Power.

Also, I dont think he'll win the stage, but Sagan will probably be a decent trade. I'm on at 11.5 with the idea of greening out somewhere around 2/1-5/2. I think he'll get in a break and contend the intermediate sprint points and then drop off as he feels the pain of yesterday's climbs.

probably a good idea, market always loves sagan

Backed Greipel at 4.4 (how is he that big?), Goss too big too.

Eurosport saying that one of the allegations about tackgate yesterday was that it was ' a betting syndicate'. Haven't heard this anywhere else. Now Sagan did go down to 1.40 and it didn't seem to affect any of the leading group. Interesting.

the breakaway wasnt in any danger. i cant see how anyone gained an advantage betting on the stage.

Triads or the mafia or Lance Armstrong, I reckon!

So, from the odds think that the brak will stick. 4 big sprinters all very tempting now!

Totally true, those blaming it on a betting syndicate are missing the obvious point that there was no way the breakaway was gettin caught. They were 12-15 minutes ahead with an easy 40k descent to come. They'd have had to have been Within 3-4 mins to catch them at that stage.

I've got Fedrigo at 66/1 each way in this breakaway, come on lad.O

betting syndicate doesnt make sense to me. you couldnt predict who would get punctured and who wouldn't

how many british riders are there in the tour, cavendish, froom, millar, wiggly braggins, cummins......any others

No, think it's just those riders

good fun backing and laying the front 4 on time gaps. would be up loads if it werent for bloody itv4 ads

breaks coming back,cavandish & griepel will get back in,massive prices on here at the mo.

backed cavendish 27.0
backed greipel 27.0

lol

cav went to 27.5 hmmmm; could still go either way

will they bother catching them?

what is going on with greipel's odds??

Cav too short now IMO, even if they catch them it's a tricky last 30 kilometres

Lotto are chasing so yes. Greipel odds ... we they/won't they catch them?

cheers jumper

Don't think they'll catch them personally. They don't seem to have totally made up their mind in the peleton.

yeah theres only a couple that want to chase, and the peloton hasn't shown much interest in chasing breakaways in previous stages

The difference here is that it is a sprinters' finish and they are not many opportunties left for the quick men.

Under 5 mins now .... probably a catch

I doubt it but it's still in the balance

back up to 5.30 odds just shot out on greipel and cav

If the gap is 5-6'00 after the three climbs, its a unprobable catch with under 3k to go.

Under 30k to go I should say

yes, chase appears to be over now

No catch then!

lazy f.....s imo

Greipel and Cav will be pee'd off

laziest pelaton ever

Didn't see who was going to bother chasing it today

Even if Fedrigo doesnt win this, FDJ are f**king cool. Always try and get someone in there. And Pinot is a star!

I'm defo getting this...

http://www.wiggle.co.uk/moa-fdj-bigmat-team-jersey-2012/

hope voeckler wins

whoever designed this year's Tour wants shooting. One of the most boring Tours I have ever witnessed

agree ,i like watching it but nearly fell asleep at times,they really building up wed and thursday stages so hopefully be special

thoughts for the end game?

I think its good there's a few stages designed for breakaways. Either mountain stages or flat stages just means that no-one tries to breakaway. Stages that allow breakaways to get out means that riders will try and make breaks, which adds to the excitement overall.

Dumoulin to win if it ends in a sprint. There will be a load of nonsense amongst the break group, like when Miller won on Friday. Voeckler to do a load of sandbagging, and hopefully Fedrigo to end up being the strongest and win.

has wiggins leading time increased at all in the last few stages or is it still the same?

No all the main contenders have been finishing in the same group so have all received the same time, the last stage where the overall classification was affected was Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday this week will be EPIC though.

I've laid Dumoulin, dont see them letting him win a sprint

here comes Voeckler's sandbagging. He'll pretend he's knackered for a couple of k now and then break. If Voeckler gets to double figures I'm going to back him.

Come on Fedrigo!!! Make it for me

Yeee-hah! 4 days on the spin. I'm killing Paddy Power

well done marychain :)

christ mc, youre killing it. i give your account days to live.

Brilliant stuff mc1

A hundred and sixty-odd runners per race and mc1 has the winner four times on the bounce! That must be one of the finest punting performances in the history of betting.

Yellow jersey, shorts, shoes, socks, helmet, glasses, bike, pump, tyre levers............

Corking stuff Marychain

lend us a tenner