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Samatan-Pau 158.5km
"A tip of the hat to provincial France, the France of the Tour. Our caravan will set off from Samatan, a large town with 2,200 inhabitants which is the main town of the Gers canton. It will probably be a calm start, as the stage is not particularly tough. A sprint finish would be the logical outcome, and I actually hope it happens, because pure sprinters will not get many chances to shine in this Tour. The finish in Pau will be beautiful, like always. This is the 64th time that the Tour visits this city, which is almost a record. Let us pay homage to this city, which we see as a stronghold and a strategic place."
Sagan 10/3
Greipel 9/2
Cavendish 5/1
Goss 9/1
early pappypower prices
someone make a convincing case not to back greipel 9/2ew straight away?
"A tip of the hat to provincial France, the France of the Tour. Our caravan will set off from Samatan, a large town with 2,200 inhabitants which is the main town of the Gers canton. It will probably be a calm start, as the stage is not particularly tough. A sprint finish would be the logical outcome, and I actually hope it happens, because pure sprinters will not get many chances to shine in this Tour. The finish in Pau will be beautiful, like always. This is the 64th time that the Tour visits this city, which is almost a record. Let us pay homage to this city, which we see as a stronghold and a strategic place."
Sagan 10/3
Greipel 9/2
Cavendish 5/1
Goss 9/1
early pappypower prices
someone make a convincing case not to back greipel 9/2ew straight away?
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As a group those prices make them a little shorter than 1/2; probably not far off right. Among the group, Greipel and Cav are average prices. I'd say Greipel deserved to be shorter than average. Sagan has had a hard, but productive, day; Goss seems to have lost the will; Cav could do anything.
I'd say it was a fair to good bet. |
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bet365 opened 9/1 on cav, amazing considering surely stage wins have to be on the cards for him to still be here?
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Cav has his eyes on Paris next Sunday. Nothing else imo. Plus Sky will be ablse to help him next Sunday knowing Wiggo is safe
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Greipel is going to be 2/1 best price in half an hour.
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Only Sprint chance before next Friday and Sunday. I cannot imagine break getting away too far as too amny teams are sprinter focussed. Cav looks big to me but Greipel will take some pegging back.
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Given their past rivalry, T think Cav will be highly motivated by Greipel's 3 wins to his 1. Probably no Sky train though. Also Goss at the odds.
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I'm not sure this will be a bunch sprint. Its lumpy all day, and looks ripe for a breakaway to me. The three climbs towards the end of the stage may not have a patch on Mont St Clair, they are still going to take some getting over at the into the third week.
Even if a breakaway doesnt stay out, I'm not that convinced that Cav, Griepel and Goss will be on the premises and I think Sagan could well be feeling his exertions from today. So that leaves me with Edvald Boassen Hagen. EBH will take over the sprinting duties for Sky if Cav isnt around, he's well capable of winning sprints against all but the top two or three guys, as he's shown throughout his career, but again recently in the Dauphine and with his 3rd on Saturday. Also, there's a chance EBH could get into a break today. They have brought him here to win stages, and this one looks a good chance. Normally, he'd stay with yellow, but with a rest day on Tuesday they might let him have his head. So EBH 35/1. Also reckon FDJ and Euskadi will be amongst the teams desperate to make a break stick, so with this in mind I have had smaller bets on Fedrigo and Azanza at 50/1 and 200/1. Good luck gang  |
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had a nibble at 65.0 on EBH as you're the resident judge marychain
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Betting 1/3 the top four on here. Short enough?
Goss is the enigma here. After his 30 point penalty he seems to have given up chasing green, but may still fancy a pop at a stage win. Those hills in the second half of the stage today may count against him though. Might have a dabble if he drifts a bit from the current 10/1. |
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I wonder whether Orica GE might try a different tactic today, and stick Gerrans in the breakaway group? If they do I really dont know who will bother chasing it down.
I'd love to see a breakaway group with EBH and Gerrans in it. Can only dream... Added Gerrans 100/1 each way with Paddy Power. |
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Also, I dont think he'll win the stage, but Sagan will probably be a decent trade. I'm on at 11.5 with the idea of greening out somewhere around 2/1-5/2. I think he'll get in a break and contend the intermediate sprint points and then drop off as he feels the pain of yesterday's climbs.
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probably a good idea, market always loves sagan
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Backed Greipel at 4.4 (how is he that big?), Goss too big too.
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Eurosport saying that one of the allegations about tackgate yesterday was that it was ' a betting syndicate'. Haven't heard this anywhere else. Now Sagan did go down to 1.40 and it didn't seem to affect any of the leading group. Interesting.
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the breakaway wasnt in any danger. i cant see how anyone gained an advantage betting on the stage.
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Triads or the mafia or Lance Armstrong, I reckon!
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So, from the odds think that the brak will stick. 4 big sprinters all very tempting now!
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Totally true, those blaming it on a betting syndicate are missing the obvious point that there was no way the breakaway was gettin caught. They were 12-15 minutes ahead with an easy 40k descent to come. They'd have had to have been Within 3-4 mins to catch them at that stage.
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I've got Fedrigo at 66/1 each way in this breakaway, come on lad.O
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betting syndicate doesnt make sense to me. you couldnt predict who would get punctured and who wouldn't
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how many british riders are there in the tour, cavendish, froom, millar, wiggly braggins, cummins......any others
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No, think it's just those riders
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good fun backing and laying the front 4 on time gaps. would be up loads if it werent for bloody itv4 ads
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breaks coming back,cavandish & griepel will get back in,massive prices on here at the mo.
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backed cavendish 27.0
backed greipel 27.0 lol |
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cav went to 27.5 hmmmm; could still go either way
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will they bother catching them?
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what is going on with greipel's odds??
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Cav too short now IMO, even if they catch them it's a tricky last 30 kilometres
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Lotto are chasing so yes. Greipel odds ... we they/won't they catch them?
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cheers jumper
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Don't think they'll catch them personally. They don't seem to have totally made up their mind in the peleton.
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yeah theres only a couple that want to chase, and the peloton hasn't shown much interest in chasing breakaways in previous stages
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The difference here is that it is a sprinters' finish and they are not many opportunties left for the quick men.
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Under 5 mins now .... probably a catch
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I doubt it but it's still in the balance
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back up to 5.30 odds just shot out on greipel and cav
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If the gap is 5-6'00 after the three climbs, its a unprobable catch with under 3k to go.
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Under 30k to go I should say
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