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HoD
11 Jul 12 20:26
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Date Joined: 18 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 236 | Blogger: HoD's blog
Well here we are - halfway. The second half however is tougher than the first. Today is two HCs, a cat 2 then a (rare) summit finish on a Cat 1.

Unless Moncoutie is having an 'on' day, I can't see past the first four being Froome, Evans, Wiggins and Nibali - probably in that order!

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Replies: 154
By:
Dope
When: 11 Jul 12 21:40
I like your top 4 but I'd make it 5 and throw Jurgen Van Den Broeck into the mix. Was unfortunate with a mechanical on the climb on the stage Froome won, he'll match the other favourites - don't be suprised to see him attacking either.
By:
lucylucky
When: 11 Jul 12 22:12
I picked up £2 on VDB at 600/1 this morning. He'll be in the mix with the big 4.
By:
Reezy
When: 12 Jul 12 00:15
Backed Nibali, Vandendert, and Chris Sorenson for the win.
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 07:46
Think Vanendert will do a lot of work on the front for VDB, which could also help Sky. I would be surprised if we didnt see Evans and Nibali working together to some extent today, especially after Nibali's barbed comments about Evans not helping attack Wiggins yesterday, which Evans blamed on hearing a mechanical. There's also a good chance we will see BMC and Liquigas send people up the road, possibly TJVG and Szmyd. I also think we'll see the climbers making a real go of things today. Frank Schleck has been whining about the course, and today is about as good as it gets for him.

He's 8'19 down, or more like 13 minutes once we include the 53k time trial. He's been non-existent in this tour so far, but he has said "There are only two very hard stages for climbers," he said. "In the other stages, we do not know what to do. The organisers wanted to make an exciting tour with earlier attacks but what will happen is the opposite. Three years ago we saw [Schleck's brother] Andy and I regularly attack everyone else. We knew last year that would be hard to beat Cadel (Evans), but no one attacked. I fear that this will remain the same this year. " So I'm confidnt we'll see him try something today, and its quite possible the first ten days have ridden his legs into some form. Wiggo said the Sky guys "cant chase down everything that moves", and that they gambled with Scarponi possibly borrowing yellow yesterday. Frank could fall into a similar category today, I've had bits matched between 19 and 25.

JJ Cobo's climbing was exceptional in winning the Vuelta, and he's 37 minutes down, so doesnt even qualify as a risk. He's another who will have earmarked this stage.

But the final climb suits Sky down to the ground, its steady and even, without the really steep bits or changes in gradients. We can expect to see powering up it at Wiggins pace, and riding the legs out of the possible attackers. They'll be reeling in and passing the breakaway riders all the way up La Toussuire, and Wiggins top 3 at 4/1+ is my main bet of the day.

Wiggins top 3 @ 5
Schleck @ 20
Cobo @ 85
By:
HoD
When: 12 Jul 12 08:50
Good luck with Wiggins top 3. Think 4/1 is a fair price ... the bet is "will a break stick" but there are very few in the peloton that could stay clear of the Sky train: Cobo (if he finds some form), Moncoutie, Kern (had £1 at 300), Rolland, Pinot, Vichot (!?), someone from Euskatel?

Going to do a bit of betting in running today ... if the boss doesn't spot me!
By:
db1974
When: 12 Jul 12 09:01
Vichot isn't even priced up at any of the books
By:
JustWinBaby
When: 12 Jul 12 09:05
I'm flipping from yesterday bet, taken Froome to beat Wiggins H2h at evens, Froome to beat Evans at the very generous price of 2.55 and Rolland EW for the stage, GL
By:
Wessex
When: 12 Jul 12 09:40
The logic of the Wiggins Top 3 bet is infallible but Sky only need to control Evans and Nibali so will not bust a gut to reel in a non-threatening break.  More likely scenario to me to knock out the bet is an attack by a climber able to stick with the Sky train on the final climb.  Rolland and Valverde seem likely candidates for this and Vanendert would be a possible if not working for VDB.  Could see the Lotto pair attacking 1-2km out to take a minute if VDB is just targeting 6th in the GC. However if Montfort has gone by then, he may not bother and leave it to Vanendert....lots of interesting possibilities, the least interesting of which is break caught, no attacks and the Top 4 in the GC finish Top 4 in the stage.
By:
HoD
When: 12 Jul 12 09:50
They'll be attacks Wessex .... it will be captivating watching as usual!

Just investigating Riblon. Will he work for Roche/Peraud or be given chance of stage win?
By:
3DUCKEGGS
When: 12 Jul 12 10:46
I think Jurgen Van Den Broeck is rightly fav.  A lot of the other climbers haven't as yet shown they are in the right form.  Secondly with a mountain top finish the chances of a break staying away is a lot less, still possible but for me unlikely.  For me JVDB has the best change of pace of the main men and whilst I doubt he'll gain lots of time should at some point get at least into a good trading position on the last climb.
By:
HoD
When: 12 Jul 12 12:08
Pinot did very well on this climb in Dauphine 2011 .... might have a go?
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 13:20
Layed Valverde 4.5 in play LOL
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 13:25
Pinot slipping back
By:
BlockingBug
When: 12 Jul 12 13:36
I fancy the Sky train to chug right the way up that final climb relentlessly. Therefore I've had a punt on Froome. I don't see the gap getting big enough for it to not be reeled in based on the initial kms of racing. The pace up the final climb will be hard if Nibali and Evans haven't attacked before to prevent them from doing so which makes it very feasible a break gets swallowed up in it's wake.

Nibali I think is cognisant that he needs to do something before then. Evans however, I don't think is. Yesterday indicated to me that he didn't have the minerals to attack from a long way out and another token effort on the last time is likely going to be slapped down mercilessly if the Sky train is in good shape.

Watch him prove me wrong and bolt down Col de la Croix de Fer!
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:18
Why is Valverde 6 and Vanendert 170?
By:
db1974
When: 12 Jul 12 14:35
Cos Valverde is in the leading 17 and Vanendert is not!
By:
federalski
When: 12 Jul 12 14:40
Still little bits of nice prices for Vasil Kiryienka.
Taken plenty already, especially with Valverde dropping off.
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:40
Valverde gone out the back, with Basso and Levi
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:41
easy lay on Valverde that
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:46
Ah, Vanendert was out the back of the peloton, hence the price. Got a bit at 170.
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 14:46
just layed roland 3.2
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:47
Yeah, LL I dont think this break is sticking. If it gets to 2.5 Im laying the hell out of it.
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 14:48
kern looks like breaking
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 14:49
LOL sending TJ out, don't think that's going to rattle sky
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:50
They haven't even got over Croix de La Fer yet, two more climbs to go.
By:
federalski
When: 12 Jul 12 14:51
They need to try something...
Nibbles and Evans to push on soon ?
Basso and Teejay up front to help...
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 14:51
Cadel gone!!!
By:
History Maker
When: 12 Jul 12 14:52
Attack!!! Woo.
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 14:52
evans goes
By:
federalski
When: 12 Jul 12 14:52
Sky do not look to worried, strangely.
By:
History Maker
When: 12 Jul 12 14:54
They're just doing what they need to. Wiggins is much more a steady pace climber - not really explosive.
By:
federalski
When: 12 Jul 12 14:55
Wiggo down to 3 domestiques, get the feeling he will be left exposed later.
By:
federalski
When: 12 Jul 12 14:58
I know, but this is real dangerous, they should be worried with so few help.
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 14:58
including the best one in the tour
By:
lucylucky
When: 12 Jul 12 15:02
damn knew evans 8.0 was a lay, thought it would go shorter.
By:
A_T
When: 12 Jul 12 15:02
Full marks to Evans for the attack but he's hardly created any gap and Wiggins/SKY look really strong. Evans might pay for this on the final climb. Wiggins' overall lead looks invulnerable to me.
By:
marychain1
When: 12 Jul 12 15:03
Evans is going to get dropped here
By:
razz
When: 12 Jul 12 15:07
evans looks done
By:
HoD
When: 12 Jul 12 15:07
How cool are Sky?
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