TdF Stage 11

I picked up £2 on VDB at 600/1 this morning. He'll be in the mix with the big 4.

Think Vanendert will do a lot of work on the front for VDB, which could also help Sky. I would be surprised if we didnt see Evans and Nibali working together to some extent today, especially after Nibali's barbed comments about Evans not helping attack Wiggins yesterday, which Evans blamed on hearing a mechanical. There's also a good chance we will see BMC and Liquigas send people up the road, possibly TJVG and Szmyd. I also think we'll see the climbers making a real go of things today. Frank Schleck has been whining about the course, and today is about as good as it gets for him.

He's 8'19 down, or more like 13 minutes once we include the 53k time trial. He's been non-existent in this tour so far, but he has said "There are only two very hard stages for climbers," he said. "In the other stages, we do not know what to do. The organisers wanted to make an exciting tour with earlier attacks but what will happen is the opposite. Three years ago we saw [Schleck's brother] Andy and I regularly attack everyone else. We knew last year that would be hard to beat Cadel (Evans), but no one attacked. I fear that this will remain the same this year. " So I'm confidnt we'll see him try something today, and its quite possible the first ten days have ridden his legs into some form. Wiggo said the Sky guys "cant chase down everything that moves", and that they gambled with Scarponi possibly borrowing yellow yesterday. Frank could fall into a similar category today, I've had bits matched between 19 and 25.

JJ Cobo's climbing was exceptional in winning the Vuelta, and he's 37 minutes down, so doesnt even qualify as a risk. He's another who will have earmarked this stage.

But the final climb suits Sky down to the ground, its steady and even, without the really steep bits or changes in gradients. We can expect to see powering up it at Wiggins pace, and riding the legs out of the possible attackers. They'll be reeling in and passing the breakaway riders all the way up La Toussuire, and Wiggins top 3 at 4/1+ is my main bet of the day.

Wiggins top 3 @ 5
Schleck @ 20
Cobo @ 85

Vichot isn't even priced up at any of the books

The logic of the Wiggins Top 3 bet is infallible but Sky only need to control Evans and Nibali so will not bust a gut to reel in a non-threatening break.  More likely scenario to me to knock out the bet is an attack by a climber able to stick with the Sky train on the final climb.  Rolland and Valverde seem likely candidates for this and Vanendert would be a possible if not working for VDB.  Could see the Lotto pair attacking 1-2km out to take a minute if VDB is just targeting 6th in the GC. However if Montfort has gone by then, he may not bother and leave it to Vanendert....lots of interesting possibilities, the least interesting of which is break caught, no attacks and the Top 4 in the GC finish Top 4 in the stage.

I think Jurgen Van Den Broeck is rightly fav.  A lot of the other climbers haven't as yet shown they are in the right form.  Secondly with a mountain top finish the chances of a break staying away is a lot less, still possible but for me unlikely.  For me JVDB has the best change of pace of the main men and whilst I doubt he'll gain lots of time should at some point get at least into a good trading position on the last climb.

Layed Valverde 4.5 in play LOL

I fancy the Sky train to chug right the way up that final climb relentlessly. Therefore I've had a punt on Froome. I don't see the gap getting big enough for it to not be reeled in based on the initial kms of racing. The pace up the final climb will be hard if Nibali and Evans haven't attacked before to prevent them from doing so which makes it very feasible a break gets swallowed up in it's wake.

Nibali I think is cognisant that he needs to do something before then. Evans however, I don't think is. Yesterday indicated to me that he didn't have the minerals to attack from a long way out and another token effort on the last time is likely going to be slapped down mercilessly if the Sky train is in good shape.

Watch him prove me wrong and bolt down Col de la Croix de Fer!

Cos Valverde is in the leading 17 and Vanendert is not!

Valverde gone out the back, with Basso and Levi

Ah, Vanendert was out the back of the peloton, hence the price. Got a bit at 170.

Yeah, LL I dont think this break is sticking. If it gets to 2.5 Im laying the hell out of it.

LOL sending TJ out, don't think that's going to rattle sky

They need to try something...
Nibbles and Evans to push on soon ?
Basso and Teejay up front to help...

Attack!!! Woo.

Sky do not look to worried, strangely.

Wiggo down to 3 domestiques, get the feeling he will be left exposed later.

including the best one in the tour

Full marks to Evans for the attack but he's hardly created any gap and Wiggins/SKY look really strong. Evans might pay for this on the final climb. Wiggins' overall lead looks invulnerable to me.

evans looks done