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Ooops ... just posted this on Horse racing by mistake!!
Well the clever bet here is to back Wiggo for the GC (overall). He's somewhere around evens at the moment but he will be 1/2 by the end of the stage. He'll take a minute out of Evans and two or three out of Nibali. Cancellara could nip him for the stage though? Martin and Froome will be top 5 with probably Evans. Remember though, Froome beat Wiggo in a TT at the Vuelta last year (23 secs, Brad recovering from collarbone)
After that, Kessiakoff (?? knackered from today though), Chavanel, Menchov. Zabriskie, Rogers and Millar to make up the top 10.
Well the clever bet here is to back Wiggo for the GC (overall). He's somewhere around evens at the moment but he will be 1/2 by the end of the stage. He'll take a minute out of Evans and two or three out of Nibali. Cancellara could nip him for the stage though? Martin and Froome will be top 5 with probably Evans. Remember though, Froome beat Wiggo in a TT at the Vuelta last year (23 secs, Brad recovering from collarbone)
After that, Kessiakoff (?? knackered from today though), Chavanel, Menchov. Zabriskie, Rogers and Millar to make up the top 10.
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Blimey, I only just noticed the time was TWENTY FOUR seconds quicker. Might have laid that off too early :S
can anyone tell me why when van garden finished cancellara's price came down to between 3-4 now its 16? is that just down to froome and wiggins?
Wiggins 30 seconds quicker than Evans already!!!
Boom, here comes the 80 second time difference
Boom, here comes the 80 second time difference
Yeah pretty much Razz. Froome has almost 30s on Fabian at the first check.
Nice one BlockingBug mate! Sometimes it's just about going with your instincts, and in this case you've done brilliantly! Yep, going steady so far.
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@ razz, no way Cancellara can win this if he's that close to Van Garderen
ahh ok, i find it hard to keep up with all the times, couldnt they put more times up on screen in the corner or something? also does anyone know what the time delay is on average?
Yep, HoD called 1.6 on Wiggins on GC, on a previous thread and alerted the forum to this likely scenario at the start of this!
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razz - they do this in the Worlds, but the Frenchies are a bit slow - would be a great idea!
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If Wiggins wins this and gets more than a minute over Evans he could be 1.4 even
Try this Razz;-
http://www.teamsky.com/live-tracker/0,30659,25884,00.html
http://www.teamsky.com/live-tracker/0,30659,25884,00.html
Would be great to see Wiggins gain 2 min on Evans. Will leave Evans and Nibali no option but to attack on the descent down the Col de Richemond next stage
Yep agree BB, the win will be like an adrenalin shot in the market. Will correct later, though!
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Oh wow, Evans almost down a minute on Froome at the first check. Pacing or a bad day? I didn't expect it to be that much.
1.36 Wiggins GC, the market going mental!
Evans needs to do something now, looking terrible!
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Evans needs to do something now, looking terrible!
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It's now a case for Evans to limit the damage to under 2min
This is absolute carnage. If Wiggo really has kept to his word and not gone out too fast here then Evans' tour is getting a standing count here.
I think the evidence is there that Evans will look and find something coming home, but a lot of it is being optimistic. Can't put a reason down to it, yet!
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It's strange, Evans seemed to go out very strongly at the start. He was looking pretty good!
Froome has 22 secs on Cancellara at the second check. TJ had 20. Actually think this will be close.
Wiggins dicked on Evans even when he had the crap skinsuit on. I cant believe people were saying it would be so close between Wiggins and Evans.
I'd love to see Wiggins catch Evans here, it would be huuuuuuu-ge
I'd love to see Wiggins catch Evans here, it would be huuuuuuu-ge
Standing count in this context, I agree, there's always time to reassess and adapt and go back to the drawing board ahead of so many stages remaining. Advantage Wiggins so far, no doubt though.
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Froome lost 10 secs to cancellara in 2nd split - will he lose 22 secs in last 10k?
The meltdown on the cycling forums I've been reading if that happens would be legendary. A lot of people in denial there. That said, I can see how Sky/Wiggins rub people up the wrong way.
Any true champion can come back from a standing count SP but within the parameters of today, losing 30 secs would be ok, a minute 'meh' but if it starts getting towards 90 secs then that's a huge blow. I don't know where Evans can make up that sort of time unless he does something very out of character. Especially with another TT to come.
Any true champion can come back from a standing count SP but within the parameters of today, losing 30 secs would be ok, a minute 'meh' but if it starts getting towards 90 secs then that's a huge blow. I don't know where Evans can make up that sort of time unless he does something very out of character. Especially with another TT to come.
BB - I think we can get into this and drill down for exploration, later, enjoy this mate! Good points and language. Inspiring!
Cheers,
SP
Cheers,
SP
The second time trial course will suit Wiggins far more than Evans as well, its flat as a pancake.
That is a great ride from Froome, thought he might give some time up over the last sector but no.
Froome is going to be ahead of Evans in the GC tonight!
He should beat him, but the body-style is looking like it's suffering some, which is to be expected.
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Evans' excuse for today:? I don't know what happened today!
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If the gaps were 2 mins, Wiggo would have Evans in sight. Unreal.
What were the gaps in the start times? Will Wiggins catch Evans on the road?
If it had been the normal 2-min gaps between riders, Wiggins would have Evans in his sights now!
3 mins. He won't catch him but 2 minutes here is way beyond nearly everyone's expectations.
Wiggo is almost exactly 1km behind Evans with 2km to go.
103 seconds over Evans!!!!
And you lot laughed at me and said it was ridiculous when I said at least 80 seconds!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!
And you lot laughed at me and said it was ridiculous when I said at least 80 seconds!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!
Pleased for Wiggo that's he's won a stage! 1'43'' over Evans. That's massive. Pro Evans were predicting 30s, Pro-Wiggins a minute. Incredible stuff.
I'm not sure there is anywhere on the course for Evans to get two minutes. Nibali maybe.
I'm not sure there is anywhere on the course for Evans to get two minutes. Nibali maybe.
marychain1 - take your boom! crap to the cricket and football forum!
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Sorry Swinging Pick, didnt realise that getting excitable about British stage wins and yellow jerseys wasnt allowed on here, obviously didnt read the forum rules.
What a great ride from Wiggins & Froome, fair play marychain.
2'16 to Tony Martin, didn't think it was ever a good idea betting on someone with a broken hand!
2'16 to Tony Martin, didn't think it was ever a good idea betting on someone with a broken hand!
On form Spartacus and Martin would still have won today. Fabian's time particularly was closer to other riders than it might have been. Martin is banged up with his wrist. Wiggo and Froome's entire year has been geared to this three weeks and they are peaking now quite visibly.
The olympics may be a stretch to far however.
The olympics may be a stretch to far however.
marychain1 - and here I thought you were getting excited about proving the doubters wrong:! And you lot laughed at me and said it was ridiculous when I said at least 80 seconds! How innovative of you that you were just getting excited about GB stage win.
Cheers,
SP
Cheers,
SP
BB - I would suggest the puncture today was more of an issue than the broken bone in Martin's wrist. Valid point on him targeting the Tour's ITT, and the Tour generally.
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esy win for wiggo as i expected. should really be 1.1 for the GC now. absolute formality bar an act of god
The use of the word formality, even for a rider nearly 2mins clear from the closest challenger, over some of the toughest stages in professional cycling over 10 days of competitive riding, and suffering, suggests an ill-advised use of language. Having said that, Wiggins looks far stronger than I would have ever expected at this stage of the Tour.
Cheers,
SP
Cheers,
SP
It's not just Martin's wrist, he's been unlucky all year and didn't win the Dauphine ITT either for which he wasn't far off coming back from injury again. Fit and in form he's immense but it's asking a lot of him to attain that level with all of these problems, especially up against a very very motivated Wiggins wearing a yellow jersey who has put in months of training just for today, no slouch in a TT in of himself.
If Martin's a silly price for the Olympics I will lay him again. It's sad but it's just get the feeling it's not his year.
If Martin's a silly price for the Olympics I will lay him again. It's sad but it's just get the feeling it's not his year.
"41.5 kms is about 6/7ths longer than the prologue and should Martin again catch a flat, I think he'll have the opportunity to get back into it, and still go close."
"I would suggest the puncture today was more of an issue than the broken bone in Martin's wrist."
I'd suggest otherwise. The puncture is unfortunate but he lost only 23 seconds in the prologue with a puncture. He lost 2'16 today...
"I would suggest the puncture today was more of an issue than the broken bone in Martin's wrist."
I'd suggest otherwise. The puncture is unfortunate but he lost only 23 seconds in the prologue with a puncture. He lost 2'16 today...
I accept what you're saying, it looks like he is terribly unlucky with breaking a bone in his wrist splitting two punctures in the prologue and ITT here at the Tour, but his failure does go back to losing the ITT in the Dauphine as you say. And, professional athletes start to begin to think that things are against them, and they're actually fighting a mental battle before even getting on the course for the Olympics, in this cenario, finding faults and problems where there may be none, but simply because they've gotten into this negative frame of mind. So, I'm sure it's not just your feeling, but it may be that he is feeling it too, or building on such thoughts which will cause him to fail.
I'm now thinking that it might go all the way back to earlier in the season when his team were winning everything, and Martin was hit by a car in a training ride.
Cheers,
SP
I'm now thinking that it might go all the way back to earlier in the season when his team were winning everything, and Martin was hit by a car in a training ride.
Cheers,
SP
As much as i want Wiggo to win overall 1.4 is an hell of a lay price with what lies ahead.The 3rd week mountains are the killers doesn`t matter how well you have gone till then tiredness steps in.Evans has been here many times before and is more dangerous as the race progresses.I know he has the final time trial but could be out of it by then.Hope i am wrong but feel at least he will hit much higher than 1.4 at some point
Swinging Pick, you dont mind a Boom if its excitement because of a British win, but if it contains any element of what you call "proving the doubters wrong" then it can be taken to the cricket or football forum?
Well, it actually was a bit of both, that is to say, excitement at an astonishing British performance that proved the doubters, including those on here, wrong.
As it is, I think your mardy post came from your own anger at being one of the doubters who had been proven wrong rather than anything I did. Good luck for the rest of the tour anyway dude!
Well, it actually was a bit of both, that is to say, excitement at an astonishing British performance that proved the doubters, including those on here, wrong.
As it is, I think your mardy post came from your own anger at being one of the doubters who had been proven wrong rather than anything I did. Good luck for the rest of the tour anyway dude!
I'm going to lay a bit at 1.4 now. Winning a four figure sum either way! (£10.82?!?)
Should Evans (at 5.7) be so much shorter than Froome (15)?
well interesting everyone thinking wiggo is an absolute shoe in...
he has been broken many times in the mountains and it will be how much damage is done...personally think he is in a good position, its a desperate shame froomey lost 1 and half minutes on a flat stage with a puncture else i would be taking wiggo on strongly with him, a very strong climber, he is a tour winner in the making...will he be allowed the chance?
the tour is now dependant on evans and nibali in regards froomes chances of winning as cadel will have to break wiggo and then froome will be given the opportunity to chase him down, sky might have no option but to allow froome his chance...but if this doesn't happen there is no way froome will be allowed, to not give wiggo his wheel...and thus compromise his own chances...
big stages still to come and the tour hasn't even started but the problem for cadel and others is there is no strength in depth to there teams which leaves them limited in regards challenging sky and the potential of breaking wiggo...
the case continues but wiggo maybe protected enough to get him to the time trial...froome will win more stages but will the lad be given the chance to show his true colours...for me he is the only rider that can win the tour in the mountains this year but will he be allowed...it is the tour de france (the greatest race on earth) and he maybe injured in a years time, will he let the opportunity slide or will he not be allowed to take his opportunity??
intriguing - 1.4 on wiggo is about right not for me however with the mountains to come but not easy to be confident about others with the teams that surround them...
he has been broken many times in the mountains and it will be how much damage is done...personally think he is in a good position, its a desperate shame froomey lost 1 and half minutes on a flat stage with a puncture else i would be taking wiggo on strongly with him, a very strong climber, he is a tour winner in the making...will he be allowed the chance?
the tour is now dependant on evans and nibali in regards froomes chances of winning as cadel will have to break wiggo and then froome will be given the opportunity to chase him down, sky might have no option but to allow froome his chance...but if this doesn't happen there is no way froome will be allowed, to not give wiggo his wheel...and thus compromise his own chances...
big stages still to come and the tour hasn't even started but the problem for cadel and others is there is no strength in depth to there teams which leaves them limited in regards challenging sky and the potential of breaking wiggo...
the case continues but wiggo maybe protected enough to get him to the time trial...froome will win more stages but will the lad be given the chance to show his true colours...for me he is the only rider that can win the tour in the mountains this year but will he be allowed...it is the tour de france (the greatest race on earth) and he maybe injured in a years time, will he let the opportunity slide or will he not be allowed to take his opportunity??
intriguing - 1.4 on wiggo is about right not for me however with the mountains to come but not easy to be confident about others with the teams that surround them...
Assume Wiggo's price of 1.43 reflects his prospects fairly. That would make Froome (at his current price of 15) a 4.5 shot and Evans (current price 5.7) favourite at 1.67 - if Wiggins does not win, for whatever reason.
If Wiggo is fairly priced now, Froome is too long at 15s.
If Wiggo is fairly priced now, Froome is too long at 15s.
If you take Wiggins out I would make Froome favorite. It is only the fact he is riding for Brad that he is currently priced (correctly IMO) at 15. I have been on Wiggins from the start and have Froome as a very cheap cover bet should anything untoward happen.
If Froome were riding for another team other than Sky he would be 2nd fav and Wiggins would not be long odds on.
If Froome were riding for another team other than Sky he would be 2nd fav and Wiggins would not be long odds on.
seriously lads, save yr breath. this tour is OVER. Wiggo will cruise in from here, and any thoughts about Froome being a threat to Wiggo are ridiculous. They are team-mates and wiggo is the no.1 GC man as shown by his TT win. Froome's job is to support Wiggo - end of. And the idea that Evans will put Wiggo under pressure in the mountains is laughable - there's no way he can hope to do this, it will be the other way round. At some stage I expect Wiggo and Froome to drop Evans.
I seriously dont know what race u have been watching if u think anyone can put Wiggo under big pressure. They'd need a motorbike. Forget it.
I seriously dont know what race u have been watching if u think anyone can put Wiggo under big pressure. They'd need a motorbike. Forget it.
p.s. did anyone get the massive prices on Froome to finish top 6 a few days ago??
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