Forums

Other Sports

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
marychain1
02 Dec 11 00:02
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
This is a Fred to discuss whether there is any value in taking an antepost position in the 2012 tdf.

With a course setup that would seem to favour mountain goats and TT specialists it's easy to see why the bookies are not taking any chances on Contador, but is there any value in anyone at a price? I think there are a few people who could do well this year. It seems Basso could well ride for Nibali which would possibly make 50/1 on the latter a decent each way shout, and B365 have some interesting prices on some runners in their w/o Contador market.

It might be too early for match bets at this stage but Evans (4/7) v Wiggins and Sanchez (4/6) v Basso looks like a decent double.

Anyone had a punt yet?
Pause Switch to Standard View Tour de France GC Antepost punting fred
Show More
Loading...
Report marychain1 December 2, 2011 12:21 AM GMT
B365 allowed me a colossal £0.66 ew on their 1500/1 Arnold Jeannesson without Contador, but I have taken 200/1 Tom Danielson and Rein Taaramae, and 300/1 Jerome Coppel to bigger stakes
Report SwingingPick December 10, 2011 5:21 AM GMT
What sort of value could you possibly be after, if betting shops are only allowing such small wagers, marychain1? I mean, let's say Joe Todger is 3000/1 and no one knows but he is the next Marco Pantani -- the value - or rather the amount they will payout - will only become half of what has been allowed on the bet you've mentioned, since he is worth twice as much.

If you're looking for a betting sting it seems they are ready for you.

Cheers,
SP
Report marychain1 December 11, 2011 12:30 AM GMT
As per usual, despite reading your post several times, I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to say.
Report SwingingPick December 11, 2011 9:32 AM GMT
Never mind, best wishes, SP.
Report GoBallistic December 12, 2011 12:34 PM GMT
Current price guide

|    Alberto Contador    |    2.5    |
|    Andy Schleck    |    5.5    |
|    Cadel Evans    |    7    |
|    Bradley Wiggins    |    15    |
|    Chris Froome    |    41    |
|    Jurgen Van Den Broeck    |    51    |
|    Vincenzo Nibali    |    51    |
|    Denis Menchov    |    67    |
|    Samuel Sanchez    |    67    |
|    Alejandro Valverde    |    81    |
|    Frank Schleck    |    81    |
|    Ivan Basso    |    81    |
|    Jani Brajkovic    |    81    |
|    Robert Gesink    |    81    |
|    Andreas Kloden    |    101    |
|    Juan Jose Cobo    |    101    |
|    Pierre Rolland    |    101    |
|    Tony Martin    |    101    |
|    Carlos Sastre    |    151    |
|    Chris Horner    |    201    |
|    Levi Leipheimer    |    201    |
|    Reine Taaramae    |    201    |
|    Roman Kreuziger    |    201    |
|    Damiano Cunego    |    251    |
|    Jakob Fuglsang    |    251    |
|    Jean-Christophe Peraud    |    251    |
|    Kevin De Weert    |    251    |
|    Michele Scarponi    |    251    |
|    Nicolas Roche    |    251    |
|    Peter Velits    |    251    |
|    Rigoberto Uran    |    251    |
|    Tom Danielson    |    251    |
Report SwingingPick December 15, 2011 9:40 AM GMT
GoBallistic mate - from where? SP.
Report GoBallistic December 15, 2011 12:45 PM GMT
Oddschecker best prices
Report SwingingPick December 16, 2011 9:05 AM GMT
Nice one mate, thanks. SP.
Report HoD December 18, 2011 11:09 AM GMT
I'd like to see Betfair open a market soon!

If Contador gets a ban .... which is quite possible then there is some great value out there; e.g. Wiggo at 14-1. Even if Contador doesn't get a ban, his cloak of invincibility is definitely not as strong as it was.

I'd like to see Betfair to lay Andy Schlek ... 10-1 anyone?! Not a hope!

IMO Sanchez can't timetrial well enough.
Report HoD December 18, 2011 11:12 AM GMT
Ooops. Double post. I had £2 on Cancellara at 1000-1 but wanted £5. About that chance but sure can Timetrial and climbed reasonably last year.

Wanted £200 at 14-1 on Wiggo bit BluSq only let me have £10.50 and bwin £27.98 (??). Going to need 17 accounts at this rate!!
Report Longplay December 19, 2011 2:33 AM GMT
cancellara will lose 3x25 minutes on at least 3 of the mountain stages......if you cant climb steep and endless gradients you have zero chance in mountain obsessed grand tours.
Report red and white December 24, 2011 4:51 PM GMT
Chris Froome is three times the price of Wiggins. That seems an anomaly to me. Not that I think Froome will win (I think he's too nice). More that I think Wiggins won't win. Those Vuelta memories remain strong.
Happy Christmas SP.
Report Fenderswoops December 25, 2011 12:08 AM GMT
Based on the prices that Go Ballistic has put up the rider I'd be most interested in is Pierre Roland, A good climber (won on D'Huez this year) and a respectable final time trial so 100/1 looks decent value for him as He should still be improving at his youngish age although the burden of being the next great french hope might weigh him down.
Report Flying_V December 27, 2011 3:30 PM GMT
Have gone for Tony Martin [for a podium spot] at 150/1.
Report HoD January 2, 2012 11:26 AM GMT
A bit like my Cancellara bet ..... mountains will be a problem.

Contador hearing result Jan 14th/15th. The market is going to get a big shake up if Contador is kicked out (6/4 best price).

Whoever you fancy, get a bet on now. I'm still laying Andy Schleck .... 8-1 anyone?!
Report joemc January 6, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
firstly ,no chance of alberto being banned, as for backing fabian to win or top 3 in tour ,is fantasy .taaramae, van den broeck or maybe froome,if he rides,are the big value e-w,still think contador will win as he will not be silly enough to do giro again, hey but what do i know
Report MeatIsMurder January 21, 2012 8:50 PM GMT
Will Froome not ride the Vuelta again? Not sure he and Wiggins will be in the Sky team.
Report weekender February 3, 2012 7:16 AM GMT
Beware, some of the markets available are not antepost. They will make Rule 4 deductions when riders are not in the starting line up. Paddy Power have the decency to state this clearly. Some other bookies have buried it deep in their rules. Do your research.
Report lucylucky February 6, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
On Wiggo 16/1ew, Martin 150/1ew and like the look of some of the outsiders mentioned here. Evans feels too short even if he looks good on paper.
Report MeatIsMurder February 7, 2012 7:05 PM GMT
Had a dabble today after the Bertie ban, trying to take advantage a little.
Stable up to now is...
Gesink 33/1
Van Den Broeck 33/1
Kreuziger 250/1
Uran 300/1
Van Garderen 330/1
Sagan 400/1

Lots more to follow
Report abu1967 February 8, 2012 8:36 AM GMT
Andy Shrek and his brother have been awful tactically past 2 years, if they get their tactics/heads straight then I see AS winning (much as i want cuddles to win again).
I dont do outright on GC though, they all need to travel a good few miles to get to finish, and as last year proved thats easier said than done, I much prefer betting stage to stage.
Report GoBallistic February 8, 2012 12:48 PM GMT
Updated best price guide

Cadel Evans 2.88
Andy Schleck 4.5
Bradley Wiggins 7
Denis Menchov 9
Alejandro Valverde 29
Chris Froome 29
Robert Gesink 29
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 34
Vincenzo Nibali 34
Samuel Sanchez 41
Frank Schleck 51
Jani Brajkovic 51
Pierre Rolland 51
Andreas Kloden 67
Tony Martin 81
Ivan Basso 101
Juan Jose Cobo 101
Levi Leipheimer 101
Peter Velits 151
Chris Horner 201
Michele Scarponi 201
Roman Kreuziger 201
Thomas Voeckler 201
Bauke Mollema 251
Reine Taaramae 251
Christian Vandevelde 301
Report HoD February 8, 2012 7:54 PM GMT
joemc eat your words!

I will still lay Schlecks. They are nowhere near time-trialling skills of Evans and Wiggo. Froome probably Vuelta bound. Some youngster to make a break-through?
Report lucylucky February 10, 2012 8:37 AM GMT
agree Schleck is a massive lay at 7/2
Report red and white February 18, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
"firstly ,no chance of alberto being banned, as for backing fabian to win or top 3 in tour ,is fantasy .taaramae, van den broeck or maybe froome,if he rides,are the big value e-w,still think contador will win as he will not be silly enough to do giro again, hey but what do i know"
you said it joe
Froome is Sky's best chance to win the Tour de France, Roche says... and I would agree but only if Wiggins doesn't make the line up as Froome seems content to be his servant.
Report marychain1 February 19, 2012 6:48 PM GMT
Nibali at 33/1 is one I would be interested in. Heard somewhere that he will concentrate on the TDF and Basso will ride the Giro, or if he does ride the TDF it will be in support of Nibali. He has a good record in Grand Tours, is young enough to be still improving and has the combination of climbing and time trialling needed this year.
Report HoD February 19, 2012 7:52 PM GMT
Froome had a good time trial in the Vuelta but in general, he can't hold a candle to Wiggo in the tts. Climbing: not too much in it. Froome only had the edge in the Vuelta when it got to silly gradients like 1:4 and 1:5. On Power figures through the winter, Sky can't believe Wiggo's numbers. Are people just trying to bump Wiggo's price up here?!

Cancellara climbed well up Oman's only mountain. My two quid sitting happy at 1000-1. Maybe I can lay it at 500s and make 50p!!??
Report red and white February 22, 2012 7:33 PM GMT
The only reason Wiggins managed to cling on in the mountains of the Vuelta was that Froome was hauling him up. That was on every mountain stage and not just the crazy gradients. As soon as he was given permission Froome left Wiggins for dead.
Report MeatIsMurder February 25, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
Had a lump on Valverde. Movistar will surely play their big guns at the Tour knowing that Bertie will be back for the Vuelta.
Report HoD March 5, 2012 7:49 PM GMT
red and white: what about Stage 11 of the Vuelta (HC finish) where Wiggins rode away from Froome - hardly hauling him up. Froome only took time out of him last week but Wiggo not full condition cos of his collarbone. 6-1 wiggins (with ****) is worth a lump especially considering 2012 form.
Report Jimmy_McNulty March 8, 2012 4:29 PM GMT
Any of you guys cycle?
Report HoD March 11, 2012 9:49 AM GMT
I ride a few races and TTs. Got a Canyon CF SLX, Trek TTX and Spec Stumpy.
Report Lewisp March 11, 2012 8:29 PM GMT
I see Bet Victor have odds available for a Top 10 placing..... I think Tarramae is a bit of value at 16-1
Report Jimmy_McNulty March 11, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Specialized allez triple 2011 or the Claud Butler san remo.

I am looking to start up cycling again and have these two priced up at around £550.  Any advice on which is the better bike?
Report Flying_V March 12, 2012 5:11 PM GMT
thought it would be Brad-mania on here today.....
Report red and white March 23, 2012 4:56 PM GMT
The more hype the better.
Report marychain1 April 20, 2012 10:44 PM BST
I've just bought a Specialized Allez Sport for £585, really enjoying being out on it
Report DAN1974 April 30, 2012 10:27 AM BST
I cant find a market on here? noticed wiggins is 3/1 with L@dbrokes, far too short imo, i want to lay, wheres the market?
Report GoBallistic April 30, 2012 4:21 PM BST
The market won't go up till June judging by the last few years
Report DAN1974 April 30, 2012 9:58 PM BST
FFS
Report marychain1 May 1, 2012 8:16 PM BST
Not sure I'd be laying Wiggo. Looks supremely confident this year, winning sprints, time trials and everything. Will surely lose a bit of time on the very steep climbs and its a bit of a negative that the team wont be set up purely for him, but he will make time on everyone in the TTs and there are 100k of them this year.
Report GoBallistic May 3, 2012 2:36 PM BST
Updated best price guide after Romandie

    3.25        Cadel Evans   
    4.5        Bradley Wiggins   
    7        Andy Schleck   
    16        Denis Menchov   
    34        Alejandro Valverde   
    34        Samuel Sanchez   
    34        Vincenzo Nibali   
    41        Jurgen Van Den Broeck   
    51        Chris Froome   
    51        Pierre Rolland   
    51        Robert Gesink   
    67        Andreas Kloden   
    67        Frank Schleck   
    81        Jani Brajkovic   
    81        Tony Martin   
    101        Carlos Sastre   
    126        Ivan Basso   
    126        Juan Jose Cobo   
    126        Levi Leipheimer   
    151        Peter Velits   
    201        Bauke Mollema   
    201        Chris Horner   
    201        Thomas Voeckler   
    251        Lieuwe Westra   
    251        Roman Kreuziger   
    301        Christian Vandevelde   
    301        Jelle Vanendert   
    301        Michael Rogers   
    301        Steven Kruijswijk   
    301        Tejay Van Garderen   
    351        Jean-Christophe Peraud   
    351        Reine Taaramae   
    351        Tom Danielson   
    401        Peter Sagan   
    501        Damiano Cunego   
    501        Daniel Martin   
    501        Fabian Cancellara   
    501        Jakob Fuglsang   
    501        Jerome Coppel   
    501        Richie Porte   
    501        Rigoberto Uran   
Report lucylucky May 6, 2012 2:29 AM BST
ive backed wiggo 22s 16s 12s and wont be laying 3s, i think its his year
Report History Maker May 7, 2012 3:36 PM BST
I've only just started thinking about this, and I think the value would be in Pierre Rolland if he had a better team behind him, but think I'd probably plump for Jurgen van den Broeke.

I don't bet on cycling though - I only really pay attention to the grand tours and a few mountainous shorter ones. Don't really care about races that favour the sprinters and roleurs.
Report lucylucky May 24, 2012 11:57 PM BST
ive gone pretty big on wiggo spoty at 16/1, would be by far the most deserving if he wins le tour and he might just nick a gold too.
Report HoD May 28, 2012 5:05 PM BST
Good to see a Betfair book. Wiggo will be shorter after he stuffs Evans in the Dauphine!
Report marychain1 May 30, 2012 7:20 AM BST
Wiggins now 6/4 with Bet365. Andy Schleck 6/1! Tempted to have a dabble on Schleck if he drifts any further following the Dauphine. I know its a TT heavy route this year but he's surely a nailed on top 3 with some of the summit finishes and high mountain stages?
Report lucylucky May 30, 2012 9:19 AM BST
im a layer of schleck at 6/1

is rein taaramae fit? 350/1 prices still available seem long
Report GoBallistic May 30, 2012 3:30 PM BST
I wouldn't be so worried about the parcours for Andy Schleck. There will be opportunities for him if he arrives in top form

I'd be more worried about his form and his team. Team Radioshack seems on the verge of imploding, morale is low and management / riders are at loggerheads. Bruyneel has come in and tried to toughen the Schlecks up a bit but they don't appear to have reacted well. Andy Schleck usually targets the Ardennes classics and the Tour only so you always have to take his form on trust but this year he didn't even perform at the classics
Report RAPS June 10, 2012 9:54 PM BST
Wiggins obv. has a course made to suit. If he doesn`t win this year he never will but @ 7/4 there is only one thing to do : LAY
Report HoD June 12, 2012 4:50 PM BST
The 7/4 has all gone .... not many taking RAPS advice. Evans will be stronger after Dauphine but hard to see past him and Wiggo. I did suggest backing Wiggo at 6-1 about 30 posts ago!

Price will drop to close to Evs by the start I reckon.
Report ekbalko June 12, 2012 6:36 PM BST
Would love Wiggo to win TDF just can`t see it happening.Too many big names who can return to form and the usual unconsidered riders who ride out of their skins. A bad day in the mountains and he loses minutes and race over.At the present odds he is a obvious lay to me.
Report lucylucky June 12, 2012 11:43 PM BST
too many big names like who? more like tired names. ive put a big stake on wiggins from 16s down to 12s and wont be laying 7/4.

im only worried about someone like luis leon sanchez on a few blood transfusions taking this away from wiggins at the moment. evans is well behind the pace and a year older. he wont be attacking in the mountains successfully after bradley takes 2 minutes off him on the TTs.
Report marychain1 June 13, 2012 10:10 AM BST
Just don't see how he can beat beaten on current form. Best TTer, no-one can make up enough time in the mountains to pull back te time they will lose in the TTs. He also has the best team.

Wiggo cannot be stopped imo. I'm a bit late to this party but I'm on at 2/1 and I'm going to keep going back in.
Report GoBallistic June 13, 2012 11:47 AM BST
Looks like Andy Schleck is out (fracture in his back from his crash in the Dauphine). Not that he had the form this season to be much of a factor anyway
Report seanpantani June 13, 2012 12:51 PM BST
Schlecklet indeed out... or did they mix up Redneck's and his x-rays...?

We all know how Frank does without the shadow at his side - for Radioshambles look to Klodi now.
Report Meat Loaf June 14, 2012 6:03 PM BST
I think Van Den Broeck is the dark horse in this Tour. Cruised up the mountain in the Dauphine and had his best time trial in years.

I also like Tom Danielson at 300/1 - I'm not saying he will win but why is he such a massive price when he should finish in the top 8?
Report GoBallistic June 14, 2012 9:01 PM BST
Couldn't disagree with any of that Mr Loaf.  With Wiggins priced as if he's Contador there's plenty of value around
Report tinkler June 16, 2012 11:29 AM BST
Evans was one of the oldest winners last year ,at his age surely his performance will decline a bit this year. For those who follow the TDF but very little other cycling 6/4 Wiggins looks an unbelievably short
price given his record in the race.
The 2 appear priced up like their Armstrong and Ulrich.
Going to have a look at some of the bigger prices for a possible bet.
Would love to see Wiggins win the race ,if not financially involved.
Report Tucker Max June 18, 2012 6:25 PM BST
The 6/4 Wiggo assumes he wont lose much time on the steep slopes.
I don`t assume that for a second - no way he has a 40% chance of winning.
Report marychain1 June 19, 2012 8:12 AM BST
I wouldnt be surprised if Wiggo did lose some time on the very high slopes, but who to? I dont think he will lose time to Evans, a similar one gear rhythm climber. He is much more likely to lose time to an explosive climber who can change gears and attack on the high slopes. But all the very good climbers are going to lose of time on the TTs. Rolland will quite possibly have about 10 minutes to make up from the 3 x TTs and that is surely just too much. Nibali seemed like a potential danger as a good climber and decent TTer but he doesnt seem in great nick.

And it you go through the race stage by stage, there are some very steep slopes, but the summit finishes where Wiggo is likely to lose time are few and far between, I think there are 3 in total this year, and not that steep.

With his team, Porte, Froome, Boassen Hagen all look in fine form, he is unlikely to lose time on the mountain stages without summit finishes, and Sky look well capable of keeping the tempo in the mountains so high it rides the attacks out of the rest.

I just cannot see past Wiggo, barring crash/injury. What Sky and he have achieved already this year in Romandie, Paris-Nice and the Dauphine has been impressive, and I just think everyone else is running scared. Evans is the one danger for me, but even he is going to lose time in the TTs, and will be under pressure to make it up on the slopes. Wiggo will have a better team that Evans, although admittedly BMC have improved on last year, and whilst Evans may make up a few seconds at the end of the odd stage, it wont be enough to beat Wiggo.

I have got Wiggo covered with some small each way bets on Jeannesson, Danielson, Coppel and Taaramae but in reality I cant see him getting beaten. I wouldnt be surprised to see Froome podium as well.
Report geoff m June 20, 2012 9:53 AM BST
Really cant see past front 2.
Both superb in the TT and Evans could well beat Wiggo in the final TT @ the end of a tough 3 week tour
Wiggo has spent a substantial amount of time training @ high altitude(with heat) on Mt Teide Tenerife
Blew up on the Angliru in the Tour of Spain but wasnt 100% as recovering from TDF collar bone fracture.
Report HoD June 21, 2012 8:24 PM BST
Correct me if I am wrong but the Wiggins supporters that have posted have reasoned arguments why he will win (lack of steep mountain top finishes, strongest TTer, great team) and the people who think he won't have flimsy reasons (one bad mountain in Vuelta after injury recovery, little TdF form (4th, comfortable last year), prone to failure (little evidence there!)).

Still think he'll be Evs at the off. Superb form - Evans the only danger. You must look at TTer climbers ... Sammy Sanchez (Luis' steep climbing not good enough), Nibali, Danielson, Menchov .... big arguments against them all mainly based on the minutes lost this season. Danger: Froome?!

Also gone e/w on Hesjedal at 66/1 .... I know all about Giro to TdF form lines in the past but the odds were too tempting!
Report marychain1 June 22, 2012 7:14 AM BST
Stage by stage (bold likely to affect GC)

Prologue
Stage 1 - lumpy (punchers?)
Stage 2 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 3 - lumpy (punchers - breakaway?)
Stage 4 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 5 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 6 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 7 - medium mountains (climbers)
Stage 8 - medium mountains (breakaway?)
Stage 9 - ITT (time triallists)
Stage 10 - high mountains (climbers/descenders)
Stage 11 - high mountains (climbers)
Stage 12 - medium mountains - punchers/breakaway?)
Stage 13 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 14 - high mountains - (climbers/breakaway/sprint finish?)
Stage 15 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 16 - high mountains (climbers/descenders?)
Stage 17  high mountains (climbers)

Stage 18 - lumpy (breakaway/punchers)
Stage 19 - ITT (time triallists)
Stage 20 - flat to Paris (sprinters)

Many of the medium and high mountain stages dont end in summit finishes. For example, Stage 8 has 7 categorised climbs but then 15 miles of flat at the end. Stage 14 has two Cat 1 climbs but the second one is 40 miles from the end, so you cant see how anyone can make any significant time there. Stage 10 and 16 have downhill finishes after big climbs, and you can see Evans attacking Wiggins on the descent like the penultimate stage of the Dauhpine, but he surely cant make up more than a handful of seconds over Sky. Stage 16 does look pretty brutal though.

So in my eyes, this leaves Stages 7, 9, 11, 16, 17 and 19 as the 6 days that will decide the GC. Stage 9 and 19 are the individual time trials, which leaves 7, 11 and 17 as the only summit finishes.

Stage 7 199k Saturday 7th July.
Medium Mountains from Tomblaine - La Planche des Belles Filles
Lumpy stage with 2 x Cat 3 climbs before a Cat 1 summit finish. It looks a fairly steep last climb, but this early on I cant see any real damage being done. I'd expect Sky to keep a decent pace up to avoid any possible attacks. Difficult to see this stage being a major threat to Wiggins' chances

Stage 9 41.5k ITT Monday 9th July.
Individual Time Trial from Arc-Et-Senans - Besancon
Have to expect Wiggins (and Evans) to make a lot of time up on the other GC candidates. Its possible this will be the day Wiggo gets yellow.

Stage 11 148k Thursday 12th July
High Mountains from Albertville - La Toussuire
This is a short but brutal stage and the climbers will have to have a pop here. It has 2 x HC climbs, that should shed loads of riders from the peloton if Sky keep a high pace, before a Cat 1 summit finish. Some fearsome climbs too, Col de la Madeleine, Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Mollard. This is the penultimate summit finish in the race, so will go a long way towards deciding the race. I feel like Sky will be defending Wiggo's yellow here, and will keep a high pace, with Froome, Porte, Rogers and Boassen Hagen sharing the work for Wiggo. Evans will have Van Garderen as his super domestique, but if this is like the Dauphine, Sky will lose a lot of riders and the pace will be very high to discourage attacks.

Stage 16 197k Wednesday 18th July
High Mountains from Pau - Bagneres-de-Luchon
This is one of the stages that could see things go wrong for Sky. It involves two HC climbs over Col d'Aubisque and Col du Tourmalet before two Cat 1 climbs over Col d'Aspin and Col de Peyresourds before a downhill finish. Evans will surely attack over the top of Col de Peyresourds and the descent should be very entertaining. Any crash here could spell disaster for the GC candidates, and this could be one of the stages Sky have sleepless nights over. If all goes to plan though, Evans shouldnt be able to pinch more than a handful of seconds.

Stage 17 143.5k Thursday 19th July
High Mountains from Bagneres-de-Luchon - Peyragudes.
The second consecutive day, and last day, in the high mountains. The last chance for the mountain goats to have a pop at the GC. There is a Cat 1, 2, 3 and an HC climb before a Cat 1 summit finish. This will be the decisive mountain stage, and with the 53k ITT coming two days after this, the climbers know this is there last chance to make an impact. This will probably bee the day to take off work as we could see attacks from a long way out. The summit of the HC climb at Port de Bales comes 30k out, and with the summit finish it should be very exciting viewing. Sky will hope that Wiggins is still in yellow by the end of the day, or at least within a minute of Evans.

Stage 19 53.5k ITT Saturday 21st July
Individual Time Trial from Bonneval - Chartres

This is where Wiggo will be all but confirmed as winner of the Tour de France if everything has gone Sky's way. He will make up an extraordinary amount of time on all his rivals here. Evans is the one contender who has the TTing to compete, but even he will expect to lose time to Wiggo on this stage. This should be an exciting TT, because we will probably see Evans and Wiggo last off. If Wiggo isnt already in yellow by this stage, he will know how much time he has to make up. Whoever is in yellow will be last off, and we will be able to see how close its going to be at all the checkpoints. My guess is that Wiggo is already in yellow here, and this stage just confirms the first ever British TDF winner.
Report SwingingPick June 22, 2012 5:29 PM BST
red and white - thanks for your earlier greetings on this thread, mate. Very nice to have learned of such a kind wish, you made to me. Been away from the game writing, so that's been taking my time, however I have been also writing WT cycling previews for a local, betting-shop sponsored news website over here in Aussie, and so have had, and have, my finger on the pulse for the upcoming Tour. Nothing much to report really, a pretty much even book, perhaps a bit ahead, with only two substantial wins (tipped) of Boonen when he was short favourite, earlier in the Spring Classics. Also, backed Gerrans for a place when he won San-Remo, and whilst the write-up for him was positive, I didn't actually tip him in my final four.

Interested to know what you think at this stage, with the start now looming? Particularly, how you now view your Froome/Wiggo hypothesis which you formed last year, sometime about the Asturias queen stage of the Vuelta?

Hope you are well, and the punting is profitable?

Best wishes,
SP
Report HoD June 22, 2012 8:06 PM BST
Hi Swinging ... great to have you back. Appreciation and resepct for your knowledge.

Nice post Marychain ... great summary.

Fingers crossed and gobbling up Wiggo up to 2.5 now! Got Evans from pre-Contador days too so have bases covered?

Hesjedal at 66-1. Top 3 sorted.
Report kincsem June 22, 2012 11:19 PM BST
The problem with the Tour de France is cycling is a low volume, poor liquidity market.  Only €83k traded so far.
Any small tennis match (i.e. 1/63 of a tournament) will have about €3 million traded.

fwiw my bets
Jelle Vandendert Winner ... 303.6 ... €4.05 ... €1,225.55
Pierre Roland Winner ... 50 ... €4.00 ... €196.00
Rein Taaramae Winner ... 480 ... €3.38 ... €1,619.02
Report bb66 June 23, 2012 12:14 AM BST
can't believe Vino rides it againShocked
Report geoff m June 23, 2012 7:46 AM BST
Bloody dope him. Its like a drug to him
Report Pablito_Aimar June 23, 2012 2:15 PM BST
I have

Rui Costa @ 1000
and
Cunego @ 600

I hope to trade them @500 and @300

:P
Report SwingingPick June 23, 2012 2:52 PM BST
G'day HoD, hope you got those multiple accounts sorted-out with Wiggo at those early prices of 14/1, very good early value mate, and now with Andy Schleck out of the picture as a non-starter, hope you got some of those lays in, also? I and the forum should've been following you from the start, it's quite obvious, winning even before the start. Well done, mate!

Thanks for your words of respect, much appreciated. Hopefully this forum will really pick-up, we ignore the trolls, and work with one another to isolate some good movements in the market, and pick up some handy wins?

Best wishes,
SP
Report RAPS June 23, 2012 4:11 PM BST
Wiggins drifting back towards a more realistic price now.
Amazed he went as low as 2.52 on here
Report Meat Loaf June 24, 2012 9:57 AM BST
I am amazed nobody is talking about Jurgen Van Den Broeck. He is a better climber than Wiggins and Evans and has significantly improved his time trialing. He is a major threat in this tour.

As for the rank outsiders Tom Danielson is majorly overpriced at 300/1. he was the only person who could live with Franck Scleck on the mountains in Switzerland. The commentator also added that danielson was looking "tubby" compared to Schleck. He finished 9th in his first ever TDF last year so he could well be in the mix.
Report layingisthewayforward June 26, 2012 9:26 PM BST
Hesjedal seems a big price to me. 50's with numerous books and 70/1 on here.  Anyone put me off?
Report marychain1 June 27, 2012 10:03 AM BST
He isnt good enough at climbing or time trialling, there's every chance he wont even be the GC contender in his own team as Vande Velde and/or Danielson could have a good crack at it, and Giro winners have an absolutely shocking record at trying the double, even Contador couldnt manage it.
Report GoBallistic June 27, 2012 5:57 PM BST
Dauphine winners don't really do any better than Giro winners - only Armstrong (x2) and Indurain (x2) in the last 25 years I think. In other words it's possible if you're streets ahead of the rest so that you can win the Dauphine at 90% but unlikely otherwise
Report homefortea June 28, 2012 8:21 PM BST
Was out walking when Cavendish and Moto GP Cal Crutchlow came cycling by on Sunday.Both looked in good form...It was a tough climb - lucky I was walking downhill....
Report seanpantani June 29, 2012 4:38 PM BST
so long as all that money stays on Wiggo and Evans i'll be happy... the lower their odd's are, the longer some of the other guys are - and that makes me happy.
Report overthecliff June 29, 2012 7:04 PM BST
stab in the dark for me

Peter velits @500
Ivan Basso @1000 if its matched!
Report bannahan June 29, 2012 11:25 PM BST
VINOKOUROV

Just going on info from a friend....Enjoy the Tour lads Wink
Report sooty1 June 30, 2012 12:41 AM BST
Warning Warning, BanTheBun has a friend,its a White Rabbit,SadsoSadCrazy
Report HoD June 30, 2012 8:43 AM BST
Even Vinokourov doesn't think Vinokourov will win!

If he does, I want the same drug he's on!!
Report RAPS July 17, 2012 4:20 PM BST
Time to put my hand up and admit I called this totally wrong.

Well done to Wiggins backers who got on early @ fancy odds, any of you also get the 30/1 + on him to be BBC Sports Personality of the Year or whatever the damn thing is called ?
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com