FFS

Updated best price guide after Romandie

3.25	Cadel Evans
4.5	Bradley Wiggins
7	Andy Schleck
16	Denis Menchov
34	Alejandro Valverde
34	Samuel Sanchez
34	Vincenzo Nibali
41	Jurgen Van Den Broeck
51	Chris Froome
51	Pierre Rolland
51	Robert Gesink
67	Andreas Kloden
67	Frank Schleck
81	Jani Brajkovic
81	Tony Martin
101	Carlos Sastre
126	Ivan Basso
126	Juan Jose Cobo
126	Levi Leipheimer
151	Peter Velits
201	Bauke Mollema
201	Chris Horner
201	Thomas Voeckler
251	Lieuwe Westra
251	Roman Kreuziger
301	Christian Vandevelde
301	Jelle Vanendert
301	Michael Rogers
301	Steven Kruijswijk
301	Tejay Van Garderen
351	Jean-Christophe Peraud
351	Reine Taaramae
351	Tom Danielson
401	Peter Sagan
501	Damiano Cunego
501	Daniel Martin
501	Fabian Cancellara
501	Jakob Fuglsang
501	Jerome Coppel
501	Richie Porte
501	Rigoberto Uran

I've only just started thinking about this, and I think the value would be in Pierre Rolland if he had a better team behind him, but think I'd probably plump for Jurgen van den Broeke.

I don't bet on cycling though - I only really pay attention to the grand tours and a few mountainous shorter ones. Don't really care about races that favour the sprinters and roleurs.

Good to see a Betfair book. Wiggo will be shorter after he stuffs Evans in the Dauphine!

im a layer of schleck at 6/1

is rein taaramae fit? 350/1 prices still available seem long

Wiggins obv. has a course made to suit. If he doesn`t win this year he never will but @ 7/4 there is only one thing to do : LAY

Would love Wiggo to win TDF just can`t see it happening.Too many big names who can return to form and the usual unconsidered riders who ride out of their skins. A bad day in the mountains and he loses minutes and race over.At the present odds he is a obvious lay to me.

Just don't see how he can beat beaten on current form. Best TTer, no-one can make up enough time in the mountains to pull back te time they will lose in the TTs. He also has the best team.

Wiggo cannot be stopped imo. I'm a bit late to this party but I'm on at 2/1 and I'm going to keep going back in.

Schlecklet indeed out... or did they mix up Redneck's and his x-rays...?

We all know how Frank does without the shadow at his side - for Radioshambles look to Klodi now.

Couldn't disagree with any of that Mr Loaf.  With Wiggins priced as if he's Contador there's plenty of value around

The 6/4 Wiggo assumes he wont lose much time on the steep slopes.
I don`t assume that for a second - no way he has a 40% chance of winning.

Really cant see past front 2.
Both superb in the TT and Evans could well beat Wiggo in the final TT @ the end of a tough 3 week tour
Wiggo has spent a substantial amount of time training @ high altitude(with heat) on Mt Teide Tenerife
Blew up on the Angliru in the Tour of Spain but wasnt 100% as recovering from TDF collar bone fracture.

Stage by stage (bold likely to affect GC)

Prologue
Stage 1 - lumpy (punchers?)
Stage 2 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 3 - lumpy (punchers - breakaway?)
Stage 4 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 5 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 6 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 7 - medium mountains (climbers)
Stage 8 - medium mountains (breakaway?)
Stage 9 - ITT (time triallists)
Stage 10 - high mountains (climbers/descenders)
Stage 11 - high mountains (climbers)
Stage 12 - medium mountains - punchers/breakaway?)
Stage 13 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 14 - high mountains - (climbers/breakaway/sprint finish?)
Stage 15 - flat (sprinters)
Stage 16 - high mountains (climbers/descenders?)
Stage 17  high mountains (climbers)
Stage 18 - lumpy (breakaway/punchers)
Stage 19 - ITT (time triallists)
Stage 20 - flat to Paris (sprinters)

Many of the medium and high mountain stages dont end in summit finishes. For example, Stage 8 has 7 categorised climbs but then 15 miles of flat at the end. Stage 14 has two Cat 1 climbs but the second one is 40 miles from the end, so you cant see how anyone can make any significant time there. Stage 10 and 16 have downhill finishes after big climbs, and you can see Evans attacking Wiggins on the descent like the penultimate stage of the Dauhpine, but he surely cant make up more than a handful of seconds over Sky. Stage 16 does look pretty brutal though.

So in my eyes, this leaves Stages 7, 9, 11, 16, 17 and 19 as the 6 days that will decide the GC. Stage 9 and 19 are the individual time trials, which leaves 7, 11 and 17 as the only summit finishes.

Stage 7 199k Saturday 7th July.
Medium Mountains from Tomblaine - La Planche des Belles Filles
Lumpy stage with 2 x Cat 3 climbs before a Cat 1 summit finish. It looks a fairly steep last climb, but this early on I cant see any real damage being done. I'd expect Sky to keep a decent pace up to avoid any possible attacks. Difficult to see this stage being a major threat to Wiggins' chances

Stage 9 41.5k ITT Monday 9th July.
Individual Time Trial from Arc-Et-Senans - Besancon
Have to expect Wiggins (and Evans) to make a lot of time up on the other GC candidates. Its possible this will be the day Wiggo gets yellow.

Stage 11 148k Thursday 12th July
High Mountains from Albertville - La Toussuire
This is a short but brutal stage and the climbers will have to have a pop here. It has 2 x HC climbs, that should shed loads of riders from the peloton if Sky keep a high pace, before a Cat 1 summit finish. Some fearsome climbs too, Col de la Madeleine, Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Mollard. This is the penultimate summit finish in the race, so will go a long way towards deciding the race. I feel like Sky will be defending Wiggo's yellow here, and will keep a high pace, with Froome, Porte, Rogers and Boassen Hagen sharing the work for Wiggo. Evans will have Van Garderen as his super domestique, but if this is like the Dauphine, Sky will lose a lot of riders and the pace will be very high to discourage attacks.

Stage 16 197k Wednesday 18th July
High Mountains from Pau - Bagneres-de-Luchon
This is one of the stages that could see things go wrong for Sky. It involves two HC climbs over Col d'Aubisque and Col du Tourmalet before two Cat 1 climbs over Col d'Aspin and Col de Peyresourds before a downhill finish. Evans will surely attack over the top of Col de Peyresourds and the descent should be very entertaining. Any crash here could spell disaster for the GC candidates, and this could be one of the stages Sky have sleepless nights over. If all goes to plan though, Evans shouldnt be able to pinch more than a handful of seconds.

Stage 17 143.5k Thursday 19th July
High Mountains from Bagneres-de-Luchon - Peyragudes.
The second consecutive day, and last day, in the high mountains. The last chance for the mountain goats to have a pop at the GC. There is a Cat 1, 2, 3 and an HC climb before a Cat 1 summit finish. This will be the decisive mountain stage, and with the 53k ITT coming two days after this, the climbers know this is there last chance to make an impact. This will probably bee the day to take off work as we could see attacks from a long way out. The summit of the HC climb at Port de Bales comes 30k out, and with the summit finish it should be very exciting viewing. Sky will hope that Wiggins is still in yellow by the end of the day, or at least within a minute of Evans.

Stage 19 53.5k ITT Saturday 21st July
Individual Time Trial from Bonneval - Chartres

This is where Wiggo will be all but confirmed as winner of the Tour de France if everything has gone Sky's way. He will make up an extraordinary amount of time on all his rivals here. Evans is the one contender who has the TTing to compete, but even he will expect to lose time to Wiggo on this stage. This should be an exciting TT, because we will probably see Evans and Wiggo last off. If Wiggo isnt already in yellow by this stage, he will know how much time he has to make up. Whoever is in yellow will be last off, and we will be able to see how close its going to be at all the checkpoints. My guess is that Wiggo is already in yellow here, and this stage just confirms the first ever British TDF winner.

Hi Swinging ... great to have you back. Appreciation and resepct for your knowledge.

Nice post Marychain ... great summary.

Fingers crossed and gobbling up Wiggo up to 2.5 now! Got Evans from pre-Contador days too so have bases covered?

Hesjedal at 66-1. Top 3 sorted.

can't believe Vino rides it again

I have

Rui Costa @ 1000
and
Cunego @ 600

I hope to trade them @500 and @300

:P

Wiggins drifting back towards a more realistic price now.
Amazed he went as low as 2.52 on here

Hesjedal seems a big price to me. 50's with numerous books and 70/1 on here.  Anyone put me off?

Dauphine winners don't really do any better than Giro winners - only Armstrong (x2) and Indurain (x2) in the last 25 years I think. In other words it's possible if you're streets ahead of the rest so that you can win the Dauphine at 90% but unlikely otherwise

so long as all that money stays on Wiggo and Evans i'll be happy... the lower their odd's are, the longer some of the other guys are - and that makes me happy.