@BlockingBug

The market would appreciate some signs from Sky to gauge Sutton's optimisim, however it's not all over if we don't see it as he's cunning enough to find the right position and the right wheel to launch his kick.

Talk late of a strong lead-out train for Kittel, I don't buy it.

Cheers,
SP

Big crash at the end took out Farrar. I didn't see where Sutton came or if he was mixed up.

Kittel's team looked to do a good job to be fair.

Stage 7 result:

1  KITTEL, Marcel     SKS 4h 47' 59''
2  SAGAN, Peter       LIQ m.t. 1º
3  FREIRE, Óscar      RAB m.t. 1º
4  BENNATI, Daniele   LEO m.t. 1º
5  MONDORY, Lloyd     ALM m.t. 1º
6  HAEDO, Juan Jose   SBS m.t. 1º
7  VEELERS, Tom       SKS m.t. 1º
8  PETACCHI, A        LAM m.t. 1º
9  GASPAROTTO, E      AST m.t. 1º
10 HOWARD, Leigh      THR m.t. 1º

47 SUTTON, Chris      SKY m.t. 1º

Lesson learnt, cannot discount this market's accuracy on account of some strange movements in the earlier stages. Last three favourites have got home well, and when there was no Sky at the front of the peloton in the charge down into the finish, Sutton's price blew out as were his chances. Kittel is obviously no Manx Missile in the record books, but to hold such a price for the entire stage and win impressively, plus a strong lead-out train performance from his team, suggests that he is the sprinter to beat when favourite.

Mountainous stage 8 tomorrow, with a beast of a finish for the brave climbers in the race; I'm not ruling out the favourite, that's for sure.

Cheers,
SP

I think if any of the main GC contenders are feeling strong they should try and drop Rodriquez before the final climb becuse it simply looks made for him, sharp incline and he should just be able to kick away from them all

Don'T think Anton still has a chance, layed more after the stage, today will show!

dan martin's got that 'irish jockey' look

Good day for Nibali yesterday all things considered. Looks like Wiggins went out too hard and paid for it at the end. Great ride from Froomes will prompt some interesting debate on the Team Sky coach but I don't think either of them have enough of a buffer for some of the harder climbs.

Should be some interesting attacks before the finish though. Had a nice day backing Martin for the ITT win and laying Cancellara for the top 3.

Chatting to some blokes more informed than me yesterday, they expect a Rodriquez attack at some point but earlier than he would normally like because he has so much time to make up, thus he might blow up halfway up a climb pushing too hard and be a good in-play lay. Will be watching out for that one.

Just thought I'd pop-in since you @BlockingBug have been so nice to reply to me, personally.

I layed-off Wiggins @2-1 just prior to the ITT after initially picking him up @13-1 ante-poste and topping up @9-1, suspecting that he wouldn't gain as much time over Nibali as expected in the ITT, and then figuring that with so many hilly and mountain stages to go, he wasn't a cert to win outright. That seems to have been born out somewhat, yes he is in red, but Nibali has done absolutely nothing, and yet he is within a few seconds of Wiggins and the hills and mountains of the third week are still to come. This race is wide open as far as I see it, and knowing that I'm green allows me to pretty much start again, building new positions in the race, according to the changing dynamics of the GC contenders' chances. Just on the ITT, I brought the stage bank back into some order after taking some earlier hits on laying favourites, but it's still short of where it was. T. Martin is the real deal in this discipline, and if there's a market on the World Champs ITT I will be going back in for some more on him, although I doubt people will be offering 7-2, again.

So, Wiggins in Red, Nibali with a sniff after doing nothing, and stages of the tour which Rodriguez has been targeting all along. I've marked stage 17 as where Rodriguez will seek to find some final glory in the tour, if all GC hopes are out the window by then. But as far as the GC question goes, one must believe that given the difficult stages to come, it's still anybody's race to win. Glad I'm not on Wiggins solely as he is far from a cert, even though he is in red. Might see some heroics from Rodriguez, and I feel that with more liquidity his 17-1 price would be well worth a shot to get into, however with no liquidity one would have to think he has left it too late to impose himself on the race again, in any case.

Nibali is favourite for good reason, but given the difficulty of the final week to come, I would be more confident to lay Wiggens than back Nibali. The race is open for a few of the others below these two and I just don't see Wiggens having the ability to go with an attack by someone who will be willing to go all-out on a climb. The fact that Froome is there with him must be a little uncomfortable for the team, and we don't know how that is likely to play out yet. It's Nibali's race to win, for sure, he's there having done nothing and he is the winner from last year, moreover he doesn't have to win stages to attack Wiggens, and so therefore there remains some small question marks on those chances who are close but aren't known climbers. If Cobo was a little closer he would be my standout pick, but 17-1 is about right, and some interest money is well worth this lad who can climb well at this stage of the tour. Nevertheless, given all this is still not nailed down, I would be willing to lay Wiggens, figuring there will be too many attacks from too many sides for him to counter and win.

Good to hear you did well with Moncoutie, and I hope you are doing well on the race, also.

Cheers,
SP

Cheers SP. Learnt a lot about the race first week which is paying dividends now. Had a good win on Sagan day before yesterday where the market seemed over-confident in Kittel despite a far from straightforward finish with it being slightly uphill.

Much as I'd love to see him prove me wrong, I think Wiggins is going to find today difficult and may find himself out of Red by close of play. He didn't have many seconds to play with in the first place and has criminally allowed Nibali to snipe one or two here and there. I think he'll lose a few more today, not enough to put him out of contention mind but going to have a small lay of him today as not much liquidity in the "Rider in Red" market. Worse case scenario is he turns himself inside out today to stay in red and severely compromises himself for tomorrow and the Angrilu.

Rodriguez should animate today and possibly on the penultimate climb. If he gets very short, I will lay him in play as he may well overcook it and blow up on the last. Martin might be a good shout for the win but 10s seems a bit skinny so I've gone for Moreno over Froome in the head to heads as he didn't look great yesterday.

Wiggins comes of age !!!!!!!!

given the improvement what odds Wigging is doping ?

1.33 ?

Wow, didn't think that would come so easy: 25-1 tickle on Cobo now becomes some good pocket money as his price crashes to 5-1, after his solid effort to take good time out of Wiggens and finish just behind the winner on stage 14.

This race has a lot more twists and turns, folks. Stage 15 is a big challenge and whether or not we see a Kathusha figh back as suggested by @hippie, the biggest questions will be asked of Wiggens to date, so I wouldn't be making such a big call as @DAN1974 just yet. Certainly he is coming of age with a solid performance so far, but there's no second ITT to increase his chances of a win, yet more tests in the mountains and hills of this hot country. I'm willing to take his price on even more, now that Cobo filled my fantasy so easily, but I still wouldn't discount Nibali. Strange effort by Rodriguez, had Moreno for support if he wanted him and nothing came of it, I think he is a spent force now and cannot win the tour, making the chances of stage 17 more likely for him to win, perhaps not so strangely.

Yeah, I don't buy into the doping stories, so no comment or interest from me, sorry @RAPS. Absolutely, top call by @manafana earlier regarding Geox, that's all sewn-up one would think, so congratulations to those backers.

So, can Wiggens repeat his effort in tomorrow's stage 15 and as @BlockingBug infers, his chances begin to look very good if he can? Well, he worked hard, but certainly finished impressively, but if he can repeat his effort and Cobo can repeat his effort also, then Wiggens will ultimately fall short one would think, narrowly. The argument exists that the peloton allowed Cobo's move because his position in the race wasn't a major threat; that has now changed dramatically, and he won't have it all his own way, now. However, I don't think he needs it his own way, this is a good climber, much better than Wiggens, and I don't think Sky will have the answers should he go again, if he can go again so well. I have, all of a sudden, a very handy (new) position with Cobo, but always believed in his chances and still firmly believe he is Wiggens' biggest threat in the race, presently. But the other threat is obviously Mollema who holds field green for me, but has a better position than all the rest, and is a young rider finally carving out a name for himself after some good rides earlier in his career but also some unlucky missed moves and opportunities to get recognized. Don't usually associate a Dutchman with great climbing, and yet to also see a hard kick up a mountain stage from him in this tour if I am not mistaken, so I'm not getting excited about his chances just yet. But, Wiggens remains a good lay opportunity for me, strictly because even if he doesn't win here he'll finish on the podium and that'll be a good result after crashing out of the Tour, etc. It's just such a big ask given the stages still to come that he climbs as he did in this stage 14, again and again. Tomorrow's evidence will likely determine if I will go deep red on him, but for now I'm laying him again.

Cheers,
SP

@swinging pick glad you noticed the geox tip they've come good, pity market didnt have much liquidty ended taking smaller prices with bookies just get cash on.

@total bosman iv traded cavs at 25 out at 20, worried vuelta drop out might affect price, being rational you'd think wiggins winning here would see him be good call for SPOTY add to that fact itv being showing it and SSN will be pushing t if he wins.

Stage 15 market?

igor anton @ 40s for todays stage. rolled in with sprinters 30 minutes down yesterday.
gc chances gone in the 1st week so hoping hes been riding to find his legs ready for the 'queen' stage.
at that price i'll take my chances

If anyone else tuned into itv4 at the usual 2:45 time for the Vuelta and wondered what on earth was going on, just to let you know it's being broadcast on the net at www.itv.com/lavuelta/2011/live/
Can't believe they dumped the Queen stage for the British Touring Car Championship.

Good call SP. I'm pleased Froome finally got the millstone from his neck. He's dragged twice his body weight up these mountains. He's surely the Sky team leader now and it will be a fantastic last week of the tour.

@red and white

Thanks mate. I take your point and agree with it entirely.

@hippie

Yes it was, and yes they did.

@Total Bosman

I don't know much about the BBC SPOTY market, so thanks for bringing it to my and this forum's attention. I think you may be onto something, however, from what I've learnt about British culture; is that you folks love a knockabout boozing smoker athlete come good, much like the rest of us here Down Under. In a world obsessed with political-correctness someone like Darren Clarke is a breath of fresh air, even though he's hardly the ideal fresh character representative. That's the charm I think, and I'm not surprised to see him favourite in that market. Nevertheless, at that price one can afford to have them both, although things have changed a little now, being that it's more unlikely that Wiggens will win the Vuelta.

---

So, after finding the Cobo position, and essentially having now backed two winners in the race, I decided to lay him a little as it's still not his as a cert, with Froome only 20 secs back. I think 1.30-something for Cobo is an absolute joke with the stages still remaining. There's a minute-plus waiting on top of the stage 17 finish just for starters, and 18, 19, and 20 are stages where you don't want to miss a critical move or have an off day. Yes, I agree with the inference by @hippie that they are a great team in this tour, and are in the box position to take Cobo to Madrid in red, but I'm now willing to entertain Froome, based on what @red and white has said as a starting point, and finding the foundation of his time being so close to Cobo's.

Wiggens had the race, allowed it to slip through his fingers yesterday, after getting massive assistance from Froome, and now all bets are off, the team will give him free reign to go for it and try and find 21 seconds on Cobo. Can he? And is the price worth getting into?

I'm still studying the evidence, but I'm considering a third and final flip, perhaps for much smaller interest now, simple because it's a narrow margin and there's still 4 stages of climbing involved.

Cheers,
SP

@hippie

Firstly, I agree that the Vuelta is a tour where the Spaniards want to see a Spaniard win, but it is nonsense to say that the organisers have organised the tour for the Spanish climbers, as any climber would be advantaged by a tour with lots of testing climbs throughout. The thing is, is that Wiggens isn't just a very good climber on ultra steep climbs, and that's why anyone who was entertaining Tour de France glory for him earlier was delusional. Here, I initially thought he would handle the climbs much better as he is better suited by "lumpy" stages (that was confirmed for the most part as he did get into red) than outright steep climbs such as yesterday. @red and white observed well that he stripped his weight down to give himself every chance here, but when it came down to the one steep climb (Queen Stage), where he has never been comfortable in his career, he just couldn't pedal and his laboured technique looked atrocious. There was just no evidence he could stem the flow of time against him by a much better climber. Nevertheless, I take your point that with another ITT his chances to win the race improve and indeed approach Cobo's price now, but then Froome becomes an even more likely candidate for Sky as he did offer a lot of assistance for Wiggens as @red and white accurately points out, is above him in the GC, and beat Wiggens in the ITT where T. Martin won.

Next; I know what you're saying, mate. But 20 seconds, what a slim margin. Having looked over the previous stages it's difficult to find something to get excited about concerning Froome's chances in the climbs, and plenty to observe which looks quite poor indeed, as you say with the Menchov outcome. And so I look to his time-trialling ability, the TTT favouritism tag Sky had, and a no-risk approach strategy by the team director for one last role of the dice on stage 20 and the cat.1 Puerto de Urkiola some 50kms from the finish in Vitoria -- should the margin still remain the same (or perhaps less, but unlikely). If Sky could get one other rider to join Froome and Wiggens for an attack at this final climb of the tour, they could essentially combine into a three-man breakaway to the finish for Froome to win, and claim the winner's time bonus.

Firstly though, Froome would need to win one of the stages left to improve his chances of winning outright. It could be that his best chance of winning a stage is not in the remaining hilly stages, but perhaps tomorrow's stage 16, if he were to get himself into a breakaway. Unlikely, though, I know. And I'm not about to kid myself, but I just don't see the value in Cobo: 1.30. But then again, with Cobo one sees that he could easily win another remaining hilly stage, particularly stage 17 since Rodriguez is out of the picture and spent, to really wrap the race up for himself, after - as you say - breaking its back, yesterday.

In conclusion; Froome's chances are found in fantastical scenarios for the most part, whilst Cobo is leading by 20 secs, is on a solid team, and has every chance of winning another stage to sew-up his Madrid red. 1.30 is short, but not short enough that it's not deserving, and therefore I agree with you that Geox should control the race with little problem. Cobo wins!

Cheers,
SP

Excellent thread to match an excellent race thus far.