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One of the brothers might win if the other doesn't compete. I think their bromance hinders their chances.
Cadel showed a lot of guts yesterday, losing about a minute due to bike problems just when Contador attacked and he had to do a lot of his own work to haul himself back to the Schlecks. Thoroughly deserved winner. Am I right in thinking you're an Aussie SP? I think you said you had done your schooling there. At least you might get a national holiday. |
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Neither is going to win with time trialling like that.
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I think Cadel's performance to go within 7 seconds of winning the time trial after being taken to the absolute limit in the mountains past few days says it all. He was the best rider this year. Lucky for him too, at 34 he wouldn't want to leave it much later LOL
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Completely wrong about Evans. Not sour grapes but he had to be juiced up to the eyeballs, but then they probably all are so still a level playing field. I also said it would be worth laying Cavendish for the green jersey because he wouldn't contest the intermediate sprints. Fortunately I didn't put my money where my mouth was.
Feel pretty sorry for Andy though. I can't remember the last time I saw such a heroic performance as his on Thurs, probably not since Chiappucci's Sestriere win. |
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What a mug comment to say Cadel is juiced up. I have had to eat some humble pie with regards to Cadel but for you to suggest he is on performance enhancing drugs is an absolute disgrace.
Seems like total sour grapes to me you absolute clown, feel free to provide evidence of your claims, otherwise p*ss off back where you came from. |
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Performance enhancing drugs? Only suggesting he might have over indulged on a high energy sports drink.
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@red and white
A national holiday if it comes off will be something indeed, but I needed this Tour to highlight some unecessary bad habits which can cause underperformance. It was an expense I would have preferred limiting, but the prices never got back to where I needed them for that, so I copped a relatively medium loss. Congratulations go to you, though, also, you were solid on Evans throughout our discourse and I think I enjoyed the analysis correspondence with you and @MeatIsMurder the best! I maintained, that @nairda had some interesting things to say a lot of the time, but it was a pity his writing skills were so heavy to get through. ...Leaves a sprinters' market left before the award presentation ceremony for one last bet on the Tour this year. Cavendish has got to be favourite, probably a short one, and I've done well on him throughout the Tour bar once, I think, so he'll present as a friendly option for me, but I haven't decided and probably won't until they hit the Place de la Concorde prior to the right-hander and...yeah... the most famous street in Paris and in the cycling world. Cheers, SP |
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*...underperformance in my betting methods and styles, I should have said. I'm not new to punting, but I've been away through a forced absence for a long period, and starting out at BetFair, so new there. This Tour, whilst an overall financial loss, will serve me well as a good lesson in not undervaluing good opportunities in the market through an over reliance and concentration on personalities or figures themselves. Much better to focus more on the figures representing good value, instead.
Cheers, SP |
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It's been a good Tour, SP thanks for the praise, you are a weird guy but an interesting one, I like eccentrics.
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bornunlucky you have made a fool of yourself. Please try harder in the future
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@MeatIsMurder
No worries, mate. You deserve my praise - if I didn't state it outright - after you praising me for a "nice write up" earlier, and on another thread. Yeah, I've been told I come across as an eccentric. It's not a bad thing, I don't take it personally even if people dislike eccentrics, makes me different from the mass of punters spewing onto these boards the same things, time and again. I think that my manner has something to do with my lack of brevity, in any case. In fairness, in earlier post on this thread @bornunlucky stated: If you listen to most commentators and look at the Betfair market you'd think Andy has no chance. I completely disagree. Evans is now 34 and well past his best. Andy has only just turned 26 and is getting better all the time. His ITT last year was better than ever in the Tour, only an unfavourable wind in the closing stages preventing him from beating Contador. I think the squeaky voiced one will be throwing another temper tantrum come the end of play today. Whatever you do don't point a microphone at him. ...On the whole not categorized as someone making a fool out of himself, I'm sure you'll agree, but perhaps being a little too passionate and therefore tending to become personal as a result about a deserved winner, in conclusion. I am not aware of any other trangressions by him, so you may be right, but I tend to think that constructive criticism is valued over name-calling. Having said that I don't think any less of you for making such a comment. I think the one consistent thing about Evans is that drugs and his name have never been uttered by anyone worthy of opinion in cycling, ever, in the same sentence. On this occasion I think @bornunlucky deserves the benefit of the doubt about what he meant. Cheers, SP |
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Don't know if this has already been posted,but A Schleck,could have put the hammer down and attacked in more stages.He got his 2mins or so on Thursday,but obviously it wasn't enough.Too much watching each other.Lance Armstrong would have attacked in earlier stages,after all Andy had the team to do it,especially with his brother Frank in support.
All in all he blew it by not being more aggressive.Too much cat and mouse strategy. |
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SP
We all understand what "juiced up to the eyeballs" means. Unless the guy can provide some evidence to back up his outlandish claims then I don't see this as "constructive criticism" and I would be glad if he took his posts elsewhere. |
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@MeatIsMurder
Fair enough, I accept your point. It's out of order to besmirch a rider such as Evans when there's not only no evidence but never will be, to the contrary, and your initial comment holds ground, I see that now. Moreover, the topic was canvassed at length at this forum, that this was likely to have been the cleanest Tour, if Tours weren't clean prior, and projecting the idea that they were all "juiced" takes the foolishness even further. Perhaps @bornunlucky could have noted something more positive he got out of the watching this grand cycling event, and we all hope he will do so when presented with another opportunity to furnish this forum with an opinion or comment. Cheers, SP |
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@unbiased
I think the question of Andy's need to do so was not in question, but the matter being that he didn't have it then to do so, and as it turned out lost the Tour after leading for only one day. It comes back to preparation, and in hindsight Evans' preparation was key and his all-round performance superlitive. Especially since he absorbed so much pressure and had the residual energy to give such a powerful performance in the ITT, over the same course he would've seen as key to his chances when he selected the Dauphine as he best lead-in event prior to the Tour. Cheers, SP |
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Agreed massively, people assume these guys can attack at any time, it clearly is not like that.
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Swinging,that is the whole point,he only led for one day,because he only attacked for one day.If he attacked earlier in the Tour,who knows.Too intent on watching Contador,and settling for same time or near enough.I feel he did have it in him,but chose wrong tactics.
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@unbiased
Unfortunately you are in possession of a flawed understanding. Andy attacked near the line on stage 12, gaining 20 seconds on Evans. If he could have he would have attacked earlier in that stage. He also attacked Evans on two occassion in the Alps, and to my surprise Evans kept grinding it out and narrowing the gaps. Yes, the Pyrennes was a pissing contest, but this was done becasue everyone knew what was to come in the Alps, the effort which would be needed, and no one attacked as a result, prefering to keep in reserve their energy. Yes, if he attacked earlier he may have been leading earlier, but we are discussing residual energy here, and without attacking with the authority you seem to think would have been necessary to have claimed an unassialable lead -- Andy was found out in the ITT. These guys are not superhuman as MIM infers in the post above, and I tend to agree with him on this matter. Otherwise it comes down to would've, could've, should've,. Guess what Evans did? He prepared for the stage he saw would be pivotal for his chances after being attacked time and again, in the last few days. Wrong tactics or wrong preparation? Cheers, SP |
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I do think he used the wrong tactic in chasing Contador on friday,certainly in hindsight anyway.Had he not he would have been more capable of attacking Evans on the final climb,although given Evans strength throughout the race i aint sure he would have gained enough time if he had.
At the end of the day as said before Evans can climb and time trial,Andy can climb. Thats why Evans won. |
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Andy rode a helluva race the day before Alpe d'Huez, the best mountain stage ride I've ever seen barring one from Pantani, but I prefer not to talk about that as the aftermath marked the start of my cynicism with performances on the tour that seem to the eye to be superhuman. Frankly I'm amazed Andy didn't crack on Friday never mind attack Evans. Once Evans had his bike problems there was no point waiting for him as he was his main threat so I don't see how he could have avoided going with Contador. Andy cracked on Saturday as normally he'd thrash Frank in the ITT.
I'm really pleased for Evans, he deserves his success after some hard luck in the past. See you next year SP and don't beat yourself up on the betting. Most horse races have ten or so runners. The tour has 200! Although some stages are a licence to print money when you have the Manx Missile on your side. I hope he doesn't join Sky - he wouldn't be such a prolific stage winner without the cool 'Prince Harry' Renshaw, the mighty Panzer Wagon et al. That lead out train is poetry in motion. |
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@red and white
The Pirate was one of my all-time favourite riders. pity how he ended things, really sad. No doubt Andy cracked at the ITT, even his father came out prior to the race and said his son had no chance to hold onto yellow, way to instill confidence in his son? Evans just seems like a really humble guy, and I felt kind of sorry for him on that stage you mention, even though I agree with you that Andy's ride to go so early and hang on was awesome, and one of the best rides in memory. I think it was like 60km out, when he went. And there was Evans doing what I never thought he could do, gradually grinding out his finish, dragging everyone up with him, yes in that uncomfortable style of his, but I realized, effective. I didn't beat myself up, so much as sat down and went over my positions with open honesty in order to improve those things which weren't working in my betting method. I didn't come close to the feeling that I was printing money with some bets on the Manx Missile, but I did alright and could have done much better if I didn't relearn some things from last year's event. I think I will, this year, have more of an interest in the European cycling season than before, and where there'll be opportunities, have some bets, even just on paper, in order to keep the knowledge and experience ticking over for betting on cycling. In previous years, I've just followed the Tour only, and never wrote my experiences down so always I seemed to face a learning curve in the first week of the Tour, before finding the edge. The beauty about Manx Missile is that he openly admits he has two kicks, easily recognisable in the final stage when the young Hagen came at him on the inside, the Manx Missile just kicked again. What a trademark! Renshaw has been better, or rather perhaps more accurately, more was said of him. But the train is best, in my opinion, is when it's performing poetic justice at those times when no one comes to the front to help claw back a breakaway on a sprinter's stage and the Manx Missile wins against the odds. The it's just so sweet for him, them, and the Manx Missile backers looking to get into the currency press business. From what I can tell you visit other forums on this site, so it might be that we find ourselves opening another reading situation on some other particular competition? I know I would value your input and opinion, and indeed respect your position or positions. All the best, mate. Cheers, SP P.S. Cold turkey is ridiculous off the Tour, like a sweet summer romance ended, even though it's winter here in Australia, and damn cold. Hehe. |
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It's winter here mate! I live in Scotland and it was 13 degrees max yesterday and 4 degrees at night with a ground frost. Has rained all day so pretty glum without the tour to perk me up. I honestly think it's been the best tour I've seen and I've watched it for 25 years. I think all the jerseys were well merited so credit to the organisers for a superb route and changes to the points rules that worked well.
I had a good tour betting wise. My two disappointments were: 1. the loss of Wiggins (and my ante-post bet) early on. He claimed he was fitter than ever and had lost weight to help him over the mountains. He'd also beaten Cadel into second place in the Criterium du dauphine and had him well behind in the ITT there. We'll never know. and Cadel obviously saved something special for the big event. That race proved a good form guide for the overall winner, also note Tony Martin won the time trial over the same course used in the tour so it's obviously an event to keep an eye on next year along with the classic stage races where Gilbert had done so well. 2. I called stage 18 badly wrong and took a deserved hit. No way did I think Andy Schleck could maintain such a punishing pace right to the finish. Cadel said he couldn't believe how Schleck was actually building his advantage on the flat through Briancon before the final climb up the Galibier. I thought he was bound to fade up the hill but he made a fool of me. It was obviously a big team plan as they had two guys up the road ready to help him during the breakaway. You have to wonder if Andy can ever win the tour given such a fantastic ride still did not give him enough of a cushion. May see you on another board but my main interest is UK and Ireland national hunt horse racing and am not sure if you Aussies can be bothered with anything other than the Melbourne Cup. I also follow football, supporting Sunderland, but I mainly use the bulletin board for a laugh, swapping jibes with arch rival Newcastle fans. Finally, fancy leaving us poms to back Cadel for you, though not as bad as Lillee and Marsh backing England at 500-1 at Headingley back in 1981 when we'd all given up! Best wishes and good luck. |
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G'day Mate,
That's strange, winter in both spheres at the same time, and all this talk about global warming and the like. The scientists must be crazy. Hehe. But yeah, I have some family in Aberdeen, actually. Never been, though, London is as far as I got. Love to, I like Scottish people, even though not all who live there are Scottish nowadays. Anyway, it's been raining cats and dogs here in Sydney for like two to three weeks it feels like. I've insulated myself away from the world for the duration of the tour, so I know exactly what you mean about talk of cold turkey and the like. Sound like you are a little older, or should I say, more mature than me, so I wish you could have made your 25 year experience forthcoming a little earlier, I think I would have been more receptive to your position surrounding Cadel's chances. Probably not, though. And well, we have to spread the wealth around by exporting some of the mining boom cash we keep ripping out of the ground, on this island continent, here. I remember hearing that the Manx Missile didn't really appreciate the change of rules to the green jersey, concerning the set number of stage wins confirming the GJ automatically to the sprinter. But I agree with you that such changes worked well and presented, a fair for riders, and enjoyable spetical for us the viewers. Excellent to hear you came out on top. There seems to be a lot of money to get into with precise and methodical betting. I think most people would agree it was sad about Wiggins, although I had layed Hagen in that stage and all his team-mates hanging around to see if they would need to bring him back into the race was an obvious advantage for me. Gilbert was a big standout for me, he's an amazingly strong rider and i hadn't really considered him before as worthy of notice. Wore his country's jersey with real honour. In fact, just expanding on your point about all the jerseys being merited, also the rainbow stripes were really well worn. Wow, about Thor, again. It will be interesting to see if he re-forms his riding into that hilly breakaway style we saw on those two occassions. Stage 18 was definitely the most impressive tactical move of the Tour for mine, they would have sat down that night and planned it out like that; for Andy to leap-frog his team-mates out in the lead. Worked a treat, and I remember exclaiming that this was strange that two of his team-mates were off the front like that. To answer your question, or attempt to; I don't think Andy can until he improves his time-trailing. Even though we both agree he cracked in the ITT, his performance would never be much better than Frank's and Frank was poor. Without much improvement here, he is at a disadvantage and would need to find much more time in the mountains. No, I don't bet on the gallops, not on here anyway, certainly not anything like the Grand National, which I understand is the most famous of this type of event you mention. Yeah-nah, we Aussies only get excited about international horse racing when one of our turf stars serves it up internationally. The Melbourne Cup is so international now, that some of our local trainers are crying foul for not getting a crack at the riches on offer, but the invaders are going much better and deserve to be invited Down Under for this pinnacle event on our sporting calendar. I remember when Weld's Vintage Crop won it way back, it was grand and I did all right that year. Haven't really looked at EPL since goalkeeper Dudek left Liverpool. Don't know much about it, but it's big here in Oz. No surprise given the close ties between the UK and Australia, I guess. Got any tips, on occassion? What do you think about the pop-up forum alongside the numbers board, and the chaos that can spread amongst those chatting and betting at the same time, and in the market under offer? In finality to your final point; again I go back to my point about spreading some of that mining wealth we keep exploiting over here. However, '81 is far too early for me to remember, but 500-1, though, Evans was only ever 10% of that, I think, so we still have some work to match that. Hehe. Not likely. Warmest regards, SP |
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I'll let you know if I come up with any tips in the EPL but I think it's in decline at the moment after riding the wave of Murdoch's cash injection via SKY satellite. I thought with a name like swinging pick you would have an association with mining and if you've been pulling gold out of the ground you'll know all about riding the wave though I guess your Chinese mates have been drooling over whatever you've got, though perhaps uranium is out of fashion at the moment. I know more about getting oil from the ground than metals and like to play the stock exchange in that respect when I have spare cash. Things like the tour are a busman's holiday, fun trying to predict the future given the information at hand.
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Indeed, please do let me know about the EPL. After all, you don't need a lot of people interested through watching and betting, to find value in a favourite who looks the money.
At least figuratively; I'm more fossicker than prospector if I was to use my moniker for digging valuable things out of the ground, but I am most interested in your opinion on the option to launch the pop-up community window alongside the market betting screen, and therefore matching market with the parallel discussion on offer. Especially, since now learning that your work and leisure tend to be similar, in so far as you would understand the dynamics I'm trying to grasp about the following subject matter. You see; an interesting thing struck me as I engaged in a bet on the 1st Test at Lord's, precisely on the 5th day (I was attempting to try and shake the cold turkey of the Tour more than anything, but also seeing how the in-play market for cricket looks like, here). If you have some spare time I would suggest you find a thread authored by this Millionaire Morse character in the Cricket forum, go through each page, there are many, and particularly concentrate on him and what he is doing. If nothing else you will find a good laugh from his comedic persona and skills, especially present in the beginning - but I would hope you also see what I believe I saw, and we could discuss it to discover if that is something we would both be interested to examine. All you really need to know, going in, if you are not already aware, is that England won the match, and the contest was up and down on this last day, but you will discover that from the posts, if you choose to have a look. China seems to own Australia in that regard, it's a debate in the political arena which has stalled since the question was posed about who owns our natural resources (also in generational terms) and what amount should be available to foreign ownership, in this case though, really, a foreign state power. They're our mates as long as they keep buying, for our whole economy is reliant on this money coming in from them. Selling uranium may not appear popular in light of the debates about the safety of this form of energy post the Japanese disaster and continual danger to the poor people there, but strict rules and policy govern Australia's opportunities in selling this commodity to the world, and yes, I'm pretty sure, Iran won't be celebrating with Yellowcake anytime soon; likely never. I myself was introduced to the stock market through family and then followed it some at school at a young age, but my financial situation never matched my understanding and interest, so it was set aside. That's why, I guess, I'm drawn to this place as you only need a few quid to get going, and can run your bank like stocks on the market floor. And there's no need to pay a stockbroker's brokerage, nor even pay tax on your winnings if this hobby was turned into a reliable financial stream. Cheers, SP |
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I'm interested SP and will look when I have time. I didn't answer your query about reading fora whilst watching the in-play market as I wasn't aware you could do that. It's not something I would rush to do as I'm more keen on watching the event and am always wary of market manipulators - it's impossible to second guess their motives. However if you can filter out individual white noise there is something fascinating about watching the crowd dynamic. I noticed it in the tour where there were repeated plunges on Contador who was backed into stupid prices at times when it was clear to most he was not the same man as last year.
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No rush, mate. Top right hand corner of this window is where the tab exists to open a seperate window, so that in essence one can be watching three screens for a contest: (1.) The community discussion. (2.) The betting market. (3.) The contest on t.v. Nevertheless, it seems we are on the same page in what you'll likely find in that thread I've mentioned. Market manipulators can offer an advantage, but I won't say much more until you have a look, in order to not influence your opinion. Cheers, SP.
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I live in Scotland and it was 13 degrees max yesterday and 4 degrees at night with a ground frost. Has rained all day
i can see why yr all permanently p1ssed |
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Yup, then we had 24 degrees yesterday. Crazy place to live. Mountain biking today in that beautiful Scottish fresh air. It has its compensations.
Old Morse was certainly working a strategy. Started by saying India wouldn't try to win, then said England couldn't win and therefore set out his stall to trade the draw all day long. Was there sufficient volatility and volume to overcome the spread and betfair percentage? As for his blatant 'do as I say (and I'll choose to do the opposite when it suits me but without telling you)' method, I suppose the question is 'what percentage of the volatility was due to his interjections?' In other words would the market's behaviour have been significantly different in his absence? If it was a stock market bulletin board I would answer 'very little' and 'no' but given the trading and discussion happen on the same platform there may be something in it. How would you answer those questions given you were watching the market on the day? |
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Mm...24 degrees...I'd have to travel over 1000 kilometres up the East Coast to get into such an ideal temperature this time of the year: tropical Cairns. In any case, I take it you're hardly "permanently p1ssed"? "Old Morse"... excellent start, you've got him pegged, I think. Precisely, lay India @ 34 was his humdinger to get things rolling, and in truth, and as it turned out, it was an accurate bet for those with a sizeable-enough bank to afford the liability as India was trading at the 1K buy back, later. But certainly, his words were that they wouldn't be trying. He presented it as though he knew this.
You pose the right questions now that you have put them forward, providing me with the bricks necessary to build this discussion further. Firstly, I wasn't watching the match but rather reading it on CricInfo (so maybe I actually had a better understanding of the situation in terms of overs and run-rates, but I certainly felt like I was missing its general ebb and flow). Nevertheless, everything I was understanding was pointing to an England win, yet the prices were telling a different story, and I think I say that at one stage. So yes, I would say he had a significant influence in an already highly-volatile market, suggesting his influence only needed to be slight to affect movements greatly, or more precisely, keep their momentum going longer. If one rolls a hula-hoop down a slight slant than not much is needed to speed it up, nor keep it rolling longer than it would otherwise do under less control. I wanted to see what the cricket market looked like in play so I came into it with fresh eyes you could say, and I was staggered by its volatility, it felt very much like an 80 minute rugby match but without a cliff on either side (slopes perhaps then, if the match went differently). I remember drawing this out a few times in my posts, to really probably just programme it into my understanding: very volatile market, not much reflecting the figures I was observing in terms of run-rate, overs, etc, but reflecting more on the hula-hoop - in that once someone got it rolling not much was needed by others to keep it going, or longer. The spread and BF% was absorbed: Absolutely! Easily! And liquidity! The other thing was, obviously, the match and the market, flipping at least half-a-dozen times. And at least on half of those occasions the match wasn't the impulse to affect movement, from what I could tell. That's why I started to think more on what was happening with his interjections. If he wasn't there than there wouldn't be the purposeful, chaotic, impression to push punters to get an "all-green screen" instead of holding onto their hard-earned positions. If one is watching a contest with one position or selection made, how much convincing does one need to spread some of that "green" to continue watching the contest at more ease? Then add the fact that prices are flipping for the Draw and England often, and even a whisper can become much like loud thunder, or more accurately, a loud background noise. A persistent background noise must feel like an irritating buzzing which one wants to stop, and the easiest way to do that is to shift your position away from the source of the noise, hence to turn the volume down by turning off the pop-up community screen. But if your "community" is there than one won't necessarily mute what's being said, but instead shift the other positions which are found on the betting screen. So, perhaps, it's much better to be the one doing the buzzing, since one whom is targeting buzzing makes moving others easier. And yeah, if one knows where the others are moving than... Stocks in a stock market are built on established market fundamentals so it's much more difficult to shout in the pit that a price is falling for a real reason and get an effect. Here, in this case, it's easier for the punter to question himself that perhaps it's just something that he isn't seeing, but which will be borne out any minute, and that's why the price is falling. I remember, as an illegal punter (I was less than 18 years of age at a Totalizator facility) I would often bet on a favourite because the price reflected the knowledge and experience I didn't yet learn or have. It was only much later that I started to come up with my own prices for comparison to the field on offer, and matching the prices to find value in that way. So, coming up with prices on an in-play market is a highly-skilled thing, and how many doing the talking on the board whilst watching the contest and watching the market -- actually come up with their own prices to see if it matches the reading that they're absorbing whilst doing all these other things, and questioning likely hypothetical price trend scenarios? In conclusion; I personally think it can be a distraction to have the pop-up community window alongside all the other things going on, for as you say accurately they are on the same platform, and therefore the influence of one such poster can have a marked effect on defining and accelerating trends, and thus affecting the market through both a subconscious and conscious influence on both the punter with either one position, or the punter angling for riding the multiple movements throughout the contest's proceedings. Thanks red and white for the opportunity of allowing me to answer those questions. There is another match tomorrow your time, so I think it's important for me to watch in order to confirm if a similar thing might happen should Old Morse decide to assist the "community" - he will likely author - to "coin it in". SP. |
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@red and white
I wrote you a detailed account of our @Morse character, however I think that this function doesn't work. I'm not sure, do you have it, or does messaging not work on this interface, or is not enabled until more posts are made? Cheers, SP. |
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Hi, I once tried messaging someone but it didn't work. I haven't been notified of a message but will have a look. Did well today backing England and laying the draw. I think there are many fanatical Indian supporters who like a bet and believe in the impossible! India look very lame though I guess they are a couple of good players short. Wonder if the IPL has weakened their test cricket as they are nowhere near the 'official' number one team in the world. Surely just a matter of weeks before England have that distinction.
Cheers. |