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22 Jul 11
20:30
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11 Jul 11
Who will be fresher? Who will have that little bit more power to fight to the line after nearly three weeks of riding around France?
In the 2008 Tour de France stage 20 ITT from Cérilly to Saint-Amand-Montrond over 53 km, Cadel Evans came 7th and Andy Schleck came 30th. Evans was better than Andy by 117 seconds.
In the 2009 Tour de France stage 18 ITT around Annecy over 40.5 km, Cadel Evans came 12th and Andy Shleck came 21st. Andy was only 30 seconds behind Evans this time.
Now, Andy has a lead of 57 seconds and will be riding in the yellow jersey, which expert commentators would concede makes a rider even stronger. Perhaps making Andy's lead is more like 60 seconds over Evans, in reality?
The trend is that Andy's ITT performance has been getting better over time, and wearing the yellow jersey he will ride with that little bit of extra power. But there'll come a point in the stage where one rider will have just that bit more residual energy to expend for just that little bit longer, while the other won't because the energy store will be pointing to empty.
Cheers,
SP
In the 2008 Tour de France stage 20 ITT from Cérilly to Saint-Amand-Montrond over 53 km, Cadel Evans came 7th and Andy Schleck came 30th. Evans was better than Andy by 117 seconds.
In the 2009 Tour de France stage 18 ITT around Annecy over 40.5 km, Cadel Evans came 12th and Andy Shleck came 21st. Andy was only 30 seconds behind Evans this time.
Now, Andy has a lead of 57 seconds and will be riding in the yellow jersey, which expert commentators would concede makes a rider even stronger. Perhaps making Andy's lead is more like 60 seconds over Evans, in reality?
The trend is that Andy's ITT performance has been getting better over time, and wearing the yellow jersey he will ride with that little bit of extra power. But there'll come a point in the stage where one rider will have just that bit more residual energy to expend for just that little bit longer, while the other won't because the energy store will be pointing to empty.
Cheers,
SP
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Have not had a bet so i am neutral.I sense confidence in schleck,his tt has improved over the years,i do not think he has reached the limit of his ability at this discipline.The start is huge,if he can stay level over the first 5k i believe it will give him the confidence and resilence to win.I make him favourite but the market does not!.
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1 thing to remember...2009 Evans has no chance to win tour, Andy was fighting for 1st
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@teedoubleu
I think the market will be an interesting guide come tomorrow as the team managers and/or the riders make comments about their chances. Could be one guy got a good night's sleep and the other couldn't get any sleep at all and is feeling flat as a result. It would be good to have an agent at the breakfast table in each of the hotels to get a sense of who is up for a big performance. Andy has worked hard over the last couple of days, but so has Evans. The market should give us a small clue of who might be feeling stronger. Personally, I'm hoping that Evans' dividend corrects a little and is closer to Andy's at the start. Cheers, SP |
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@nairda
Interesting point, mate. The inference is that Evans wasn't putting everything into his performance because he wasn't go to win, whilst Andy was because he must've thought he could have. This time however, both will be fighting for yellow, a colour which Andy will be wearing from stage start to stage finish. Cheers, SP |
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i think there a case of that in 2009 with Evans...if you look at the small ITT (15km) in 2009, Evans was 37sec faster then Andy
i would have like Evans to taken another 20sec from Andy yesterday to be safe BMC coming 2nd in the Team Trail (Team Sky,Leopard Trek, and behide Garmin-Cervélo) is a good sign for Evans..Evans would have done lots of the work for BMC, and to take his team up there with Sky (Bradley Wiggins,Geraint Thomas) Leopard Trek (Fabian Cancellara) says to me, that Evans will time trail in the top 10 tormorrw i think the markets are about right..but im happy with my 6/1 Evans , after he's stage 4 win |
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Is it against the rules to slipstream another rider if you catch him in the ITT? They mentioned on itv4 they might swap the order of the Schlecks around presumably because this might happen, which implies its legal?
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let sjust hope there arent any mechanicals - that would be a real shame
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no yr not allowed to slipstream
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it's illegal to slipstream (commissaires to watch at it), but the caught rider may get psychological help to stay near the one who caught him. Often starting order is changed so that there must be a rider between two from the same team, which would mean Franck would have to start before Cadel, but Tour website show they start in order
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If you listen to most commentators and look at the Betfair market you'd think Andy has no chance. I completely disagree. Evans is now 34 and well past his best. Andy has only just turned 26 and is getting better all the time. His ITT last year was better than ever in the Tour, only an unfavourable wind in the closing stages preventing him from beating Contador. I think the squeaky voiced one will be throwing another temper tantrum come the end of play today. Whatever you do don't point a microphone at him.
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bornunlucky
Date Joined: 28 Jan 11 Add contact | Send message When: 23 Jul 11 09:02 Joined: Date Joined: 28 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 188 | Blogger: bornunlucky's blog If you listen to most commentators and look at the Betfair market you'd think Andy has no chance. I completely disagree. Evans is now 34 and well past his best. Must be watching a different Tour De France to the rest of us. |
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@geoff m
I think definitely the age difference is an important factor to remember, one I hadn't considered. Younger riders find it easier to recover from hard riding, and Evans has been doing a heap of work over the last two days in the Alps, but so has Andy; however with Andy being the younger rider of the two it might be inaccurate to think that he hasn't recovered better. Combine this with his improving ITT ability and Evans' dividend is far shorter than the potential likelihood of Andy holding onto nearly one minute advantage. In my opinion Evans' short dividend still presents as far too short to factor in all the unknowns. Cheers, SP |
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@bornunlucky
I realize that you were the one which presented this perspective and I agree with your reading of the situation. Cheers, SP |
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I, too, am very surprised at Evans's price. He's IMO far too short now given the race situation. There is great value in AS starting last, i.e. 6 minutes after Evans.He has 56 secs to "burn" in a controlled fashion during the race and will know all Evans's split times. Wouldn't really label Evans a TT specialist.
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@dr-b
I think the case with Evans is that he has been a proven Top 10 ITT finisher, and he looks bigger on his bicycle in the ITT than someone like Andy, however 56 seconds is a lot of time and Evans is no spring-chicken after a lot of work in the Alps. Wonder how he slept and how his legs feel? Questions which might appear more obvious prior to race start, and indeed during the race. A poor start from Evans at the first time check and it could be advantage Andy, and a better dividend than Evans' short price now. Cheers, SP |
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@SwingingPick Just heard about looming heavier rain which would seem to favour Evans (or disfavour Schleck rather). Having traded the winner market back and forth for the past three weeks I am no longer neutral (still can't believe just how short Contador went for the GC during his climb up Alpe d'Huez - didn't keep a cool head so only managed to lay a smaller sum there). However, if I were to start afresh from this point, I wouldn't back Evans at heavy odds-on with a minus of 57 seconds, considering the circumstances. Plenty cases in the last 20 years (when I have followed the tour religiously) of "yellow gives wings". And it's not Armstrong at his peak he is up against but "only" Cadel Evans (admittedly a decent ITT-rider).
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expert commentators
??? |
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@dr-b
Yeah, heard about the looming inclement weather, also. I would say that a tricky corner, a bit of slippery white road marking and it could be a slip for either rider, making an advantage for Evans' or Andy a laughable assertion; although I don't wish it as I would always prefer to see a fair competition. I would be more than happy to lay-off a little but I would only do so if Evans' price was closer to 4/5. Then it's a narrow loss for me, but the peace of mind that it would present would make for much easier viewing. @Flying-V Phil 'voice of cycling' Liggett and Paul Sherwin, mate. Best in the business. Cheers, SP |
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bad weather fav Evans, as Evans is a better bike handler
Andy has a chance to win...he 2.88 to win, making him about 34% chance to win..I think this is about right, even with Andy in Yellow...If Andy had only 40sec, I would be saying, that Andy has no chance to win |
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@nairda
The assertion that Evans is a better bike handler and will have an advantage in wet weather seems like a marginal advantage, if there is one, but when discussing such narrow margins to start with, perhaps it might be worth 2-3 seconds all together. Andy's price absolutely seems fair, but it's Evans' price which I find far too short, and would suggest should be much closer to that of Andy's. In reality, Andy is leading by 57 seconds, it's not 40 and never will be now. Cheers, SP |
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SwingingPick.
You have said Cadels price has been too short all tour. Might be time to re-assess your opinion on him before things get too ugly. Nairda has read the tour a treat thus far. |
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By that logic, SwingingPick, one or more of the other riders are too long in your opinion ? (that is if Evans is too short, but Andy the right price). Surely you can't refer to Fränk ? Having said that, my position is similar to yours (I am short Evans+Contador+Voeckler, long all other riders) and in fact I make this almost 50/50 between evans and schleck.
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if Andy prices is fair, then how can Evans prices be wrong?...there only 2 rider who can win
for me, bad weather will lead to a greater time gap... |
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@Alf Woody
No, I haven't said anything of the sort, actually. I have stated I don't fancy his chances, all tour. Now, I more than willing reconsider my position, but the price on offer to rade-out still works out as a smaller loss. I have said more than once that Nairda has always had something worthwhile to contribute and I have taken his opinions with a measure of respect, the only thing I have said about Nairda is that his writing skills have let him/her down, but to this I offered quiet encouragement. Additionally, things will never look "ugly" for me should Evans win, but I got myself into my present position knowing what I was doing and what more I can do to get myself out should I warrant such a need to do so. Thanks for your words of warning, however, I appreciate it. I think at this stage, unless I can get 4/6 Evans, I will let my bets ride on Andy. Cheers, SP |
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@nairda
An elementary mistake in posing such a question, and so therefore in your understanding in how the market works in an open exchange. It's not a head-to-head match up, we're in a market with liquidity and speculation will be rife as the event unfolds live in front of the audience. Otherwise what you are saying is that the Bookmaker's pecentage for Andy being at 34% makes Evans chances 66.7% or 1/2? Which he isn't... but might be. You can only set-up a market using bookmaker's percentages when framing a market with two clear selections, to form such an understanding. At the moment you are disregarding the steep fluctuations inherent in a market with an unknown or unseen algorithm. Cheers, SP |
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your talking about 1% ...there about 1% chance if Evans and Andy not winning....
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betting market
Evans 63.1% Andy 35.6% other 1.3% |
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@nairda
Well, you are still being inaccurate, I'm not doing anything of the sort, the market is what it is, not everyone knows how to trade and some money gets buried. All I'm saying is that it's wrong to bring bookmaker's percentages to an open exchange where the market has no such bias. Unless... there is a Swinging D*ck-type speculator who sets the market in his/her advantage by furnishing the exchange with initial prices. Your laziness in getting your writing skills to higher level makes me think that you are just as lazy in studying how an exchange such as BetFair actually works. Never mind, I'm still learning, too. Only difference it seems, is I'm willing to not be lazy and ask questions, expecting better of myself. Cheers, SP |
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@nairda
You present three selections at 100%, yet the overround to back was 104.6 last time I looked. Pie in the sky, mate. The market is not competitive, it's soft because money talks and the bookmaker's have come along and unloaded with lay-offs after underestimating Evans' chances initially, and all that's left is crumbs with 4/6 Evans at best, when their prices should be much closer, suggesting a different overround. Cheers, SP |
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Evans back 1.58 63.29% lay 1.59 (not to win 2.694 37.11%) not much of over round
you should be careful in talking down to people , about betting exchange on betfair. |
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Nairda, what happen to the Evans collapse that you predicted? Sit back and enjoy Evans give it the beans all the way to the top step of the podium!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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@nairda
All I have inferred is that their prices should be closer together to be more fairer. You're the one who started to get all literal, not me. I apologise if I was hurtful to you, sometimes I can get ahead of myself, I didn't mean it. Cheers, SP |
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Swingingpick -
Evans is going to **** this in. Has been the best rider all week & that will continue today. |
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@Alf Awoody
It's looking like it, but I don't have a bet on this market. Cheers, SP |
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well andy is getting slaughtered here
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Frank is a better TTer than Andy?
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Today he is.
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the market can be very cruel
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Looking good for Cadel, but I don't count Andy out yet.
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