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Having kicked off the seemingly ill-fated ‘Cadel Evans’ price’ thread which suggested that his price was far too short having tumbled from 25 to 6 when he was still pretty equal with the other main contenders, a view which received a stunningly high level of agreement, I’d be interested in people’s views on the likely GC outcome with just a week to go and (as I see it) only 3 stages remaining that will have an impact.
The first thing to note is that this tour has been full of surprises, not only the multiple abandons of what seemed to be genuine contenders, but the events that have led to the shape of the GC market now. If anyone had suggested it would be virtually 2/1 the field coming out of the Pyrenees, you would have suggested they needed committing. However, given the shape of the market, it is one where it is definitely interesting to take a view.
So what might happen from here on? The best place to start seems to be to predict the TT result, add that to current times and see what contenders have to do in the 2 alpine mountain top finishes.
Based on a combination of 2009 and 2010 final TT results, perceived TT ability and current form, my guess would be that Evans will do best in the TT, with A Schleck at 30-60 secs, F Schleck at 90-120 secs and Basso at approx. 3 mins. It is anyone’s guess what Contador will do in the TT – at his best and if he really needed to go for it I think he could be 1-2 mins ahead of Evans but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he is in that sort of form. I don’t think that he is a spent force but that his lack of form is almost entirely down to him expecting not to be here and peaking for the Giro. Sanchez is in good form, can TT so may even match or better Evans. On past TT form, Voeckler should be at least 3 minutes behind the Schlecks but non-TT specialists riders in yellow and clearly in form can ride like men possessed in the final TT – Sastre and Pantini spring to mind. Let’s guess that Voeckler will be 2 mins behind Schleck minor. This deeply unscientific piece of guesswork leads to a GC ‘sans etapes 18 et 19’ of Evans leading Voeckler by 40 secs, A Schleck by 60 secs, F Schleck and Sanchez by 90 secs, Contador by 2 mins and Basso by 4 mins. All of this could be miles wrong of course, not least because the TT comes a day after Alpe d’Huez, which may have left its mark on some riders.
If Contador is anywhere near as bad as his form suggests (and even if it isn’t his current price seems desperately unattractive as he has to take 2+ minutes from Evans and Schlecks in the Alps/TT), the other key questions (and a few thoughts) would seem to be:
(1) Can the Schlecks take 2 mins out of Evans in the Alps to give them the necessary cushion?
Before the Pyrenees I would have bet my life on it but playing cat and mouse and then sprinting from 500 metres as happened today will never work. They need to launch a serious attack from 5-10km out. All the talk suggested that this was going to happen today but for all the great work of Voigt, O’Grady et al, nothing. I am beginning to believe that neither Schleck is in good form and/or they are obsessed with Contador, a view that might backfire with one of them ending up looking up to Evans and Voeckler on the podium in Paris. It would be interesting to watch the stages without the commentary which keeps on about the Schlecks doing Contador over with the old one-two, but I just don’t see it.
(2) Can any of the others drop Voeckler in the Alps?
Again, on past performance, this is a no-brainer but the insipid tactics of the final climb today will not achieve this. Rationally, his current GC price of 13-14 is barmy, but he only has 2 mountain top finishes to survive before going into the final TT with a lead of a minute or more. My guess though, is that he will get seriously blown away on one of the alpine stages.
(3) Basso?
Multiple Grand Tour winner and multiple places in Le Tour, and seems back to form following injury but he would seem to have to take 4 mins on the others in the Alps to win and 2 mins to be on the podium. 4 mins on Alpe d’Huez is possible for the right person but I don’t think it is Basso who doesn’t seem to have the explosivity of Armstrong, Pantani or even Sastre who took Alpe d’Huez apart.
(4) Sanchez?
This seems far more possible to me. Clearly in good form, can TT and more the style that could take 3 mins on Alpe d’Huez, which might be all he needs. Very unlucky to be on the wrong side of the same crash as Contador on Stage 1, his price (twice that of Basso and 10 times that of Contador) seems much the most attractive outside A Schleck and (gnashing of teeth!) Evans.
Overall conclusion? If Contador had any form he would have shown it in the Pyrenees, so if the Schlecks can’t do a lot more than they could muster today, then it is Evans’ tour for the taking and his current price actually seems quite attractive – I never thought that I would say that!
As a postscript, I imagine Bradley Wiggins is tearing out what little hair he has seeing the ‘pressure’ applied in the mountains because despite it being his Achilles Heel, he would have had no problem staying with this pace and could have been sitting virtually level with the other contenders going into the final TT. With his focus on the Olympics next year he will surely never have another chance.
The first thing to note is that this tour has been full of surprises, not only the multiple abandons of what seemed to be genuine contenders, but the events that have led to the shape of the GC market now. If anyone had suggested it would be virtually 2/1 the field coming out of the Pyrenees, you would have suggested they needed committing. However, given the shape of the market, it is one where it is definitely interesting to take a view.
So what might happen from here on? The best place to start seems to be to predict the TT result, add that to current times and see what contenders have to do in the 2 alpine mountain top finishes.
Based on a combination of 2009 and 2010 final TT results, perceived TT ability and current form, my guess would be that Evans will do best in the TT, with A Schleck at 30-60 secs, F Schleck at 90-120 secs and Basso at approx. 3 mins. It is anyone’s guess what Contador will do in the TT – at his best and if he really needed to go for it I think he could be 1-2 mins ahead of Evans but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he is in that sort of form. I don’t think that he is a spent force but that his lack of form is almost entirely down to him expecting not to be here and peaking for the Giro. Sanchez is in good form, can TT so may even match or better Evans. On past TT form, Voeckler should be at least 3 minutes behind the Schlecks but non-TT specialists riders in yellow and clearly in form can ride like men possessed in the final TT – Sastre and Pantini spring to mind. Let’s guess that Voeckler will be 2 mins behind Schleck minor. This deeply unscientific piece of guesswork leads to a GC ‘sans etapes 18 et 19’ of Evans leading Voeckler by 40 secs, A Schleck by 60 secs, F Schleck and Sanchez by 90 secs, Contador by 2 mins and Basso by 4 mins. All of this could be miles wrong of course, not least because the TT comes a day after Alpe d’Huez, which may have left its mark on some riders.
If Contador is anywhere near as bad as his form suggests (and even if it isn’t his current price seems desperately unattractive as he has to take 2+ minutes from Evans and Schlecks in the Alps/TT), the other key questions (and a few thoughts) would seem to be:
(1) Can the Schlecks take 2 mins out of Evans in the Alps to give them the necessary cushion?
Before the Pyrenees I would have bet my life on it but playing cat and mouse and then sprinting from 500 metres as happened today will never work. They need to launch a serious attack from 5-10km out. All the talk suggested that this was going to happen today but for all the great work of Voigt, O’Grady et al, nothing. I am beginning to believe that neither Schleck is in good form and/or they are obsessed with Contador, a view that might backfire with one of them ending up looking up to Evans and Voeckler on the podium in Paris. It would be interesting to watch the stages without the commentary which keeps on about the Schlecks doing Contador over with the old one-two, but I just don’t see it.
(2) Can any of the others drop Voeckler in the Alps?
Again, on past performance, this is a no-brainer but the insipid tactics of the final climb today will not achieve this. Rationally, his current GC price of 13-14 is barmy, but he only has 2 mountain top finishes to survive before going into the final TT with a lead of a minute or more. My guess though, is that he will get seriously blown away on one of the alpine stages.
(3) Basso?
Multiple Grand Tour winner and multiple places in Le Tour, and seems back to form following injury but he would seem to have to take 4 mins on the others in the Alps to win and 2 mins to be on the podium. 4 mins on Alpe d’Huez is possible for the right person but I don’t think it is Basso who doesn’t seem to have the explosivity of Armstrong, Pantani or even Sastre who took Alpe d’Huez apart.
(4) Sanchez?
This seems far more possible to me. Clearly in good form, can TT and more the style that could take 3 mins on Alpe d’Huez, which might be all he needs. Very unlucky to be on the wrong side of the same crash as Contador on Stage 1, his price (twice that of Basso and 10 times that of Contador) seems much the most attractive outside A Schleck and (gnashing of teeth!) Evans.
Overall conclusion? If Contador had any form he would have shown it in the Pyrenees, so if the Schlecks can’t do a lot more than they could muster today, then it is Evans’ tour for the taking and his current price actually seems quite attractive – I never thought that I would say that!
As a postscript, I imagine Bradley Wiggins is tearing out what little hair he has seeing the ‘pressure’ applied in the mountains because despite it being his Achilles Heel, he would have had no problem staying with this pace and could have been sitting virtually level with the other contenders going into the final TT. With his focus on the Olympics next year he will surely never have another chance.
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very good post and agree with it
think evans is the most attractive price out of the bunch now as noone has looked like taking serious time out of him
contadors price is just awful....
would say that i thought andy schleck looked better today than thursday and seems to be picking up his form so i think come the alps it may be an andy who will be able to take time but still possibly not enough
at the moment i think its looking like evans 1, a.schleck 2, and either frank or sanchez in 3rd
think evans is the most attractive price out of the bunch now as noone has looked like taking serious time out of him
contadors price is just awful....
would say that i thought andy schleck looked better today than thursday and seems to be picking up his form so i think come the alps it may be an andy who will be able to take time but still possibly not enough
at the moment i think its looking like evans 1, a.schleck 2, and either frank or sanchez in 3rd
and yes wiggins and sean yates must really be tearing their hair out 
It seems to be the most interesting boucle for years considering the number of riders fighting for the podium, who dares to think if Wiggins and VDB would still be there too!
Predictions for the ITT are difficult esp after half a week riding through the Alps, and the road not being flat at all. Riders with chances in the GC can pull out mavellous performances unexpectedly, as Frank did when he won the Tour de Suisse and has happened in the TdF multiple times. I mostly disagree with you on Basso who was a respectable TT-rider with CSCand I expect him to remind to these performances at least a bit, so 4' loss seems far too much for me.
Andy seems to be off his form from last year, but at one of the mountain top finishes he should be able to put some time between him and his rivals, Cadel for me to follow him closest. I doubt EC team has the strength to defend yellow all the way, esp if stage 17 will be made tough, so Tommy should be on his own fighting for yellow maybe on Galibier but for sure at Alpe d'Huez.
Sammy the dark horse, is he really that strong in the ITT?
Predictions for the ITT are difficult esp after half a week riding through the Alps, and the road not being flat at all. Riders with chances in the GC can pull out mavellous performances unexpectedly, as Frank did when he won the Tour de Suisse and has happened in the TdF multiple times. I mostly disagree with you on Basso who was a respectable TT-rider with CSCand I expect him to remind to these performances at least a bit, so 4' loss seems far too much for me.
Andy seems to be off his form from last year, but at one of the mountain top finishes he should be able to put some time between him and his rivals, Cadel for me to follow him closest. I doubt EC team has the strength to defend yellow all the way, esp if stage 17 will be made tough, so Tommy should be on his own fighting for yellow maybe on Galibier but for sure at Alpe d'Huez.
Sammy the dark horse, is he really that strong in the ITT?
@ Wessex
Based on your combination of results, I tend to agree that Evans looks most likely to hold his place best in the ITT, to make or defend time. 2 minutes seems at the longest end of the margin, either way, though.
The Schleck brothers look most likely to me to do something special in the Alps. This Tour is open for the taking, and I don't have to imagine much to see one of them burying himself into world of pain, to attack and hold the break. So far, it's been a bit of a pissing contest between the Principals and we've had two winners in the Pyrennes, which didn't include neither one of the Principals. So, they're leaving it to the Alps: Contador has run out of stages to win, now, I should think. He should've done something already, and it's difficult to see that he will amaze in the Alps. You are right to think that Basso, Sanchez, and even Evans are all possibilities, with Evans holding the advantage of having the ITT stage up his sleeve.
Nevertheless, we have witnessed the fact that the Schlecks can and did attack on multiple occasions. What is going on between them will be unknown, however I am confident from the evidence available to me thus far, is that either one or both of them have the ability to attack on a stage in the Alps without looking back, but extending a break which will force anyone wanting to follow to bury himself into a world of pain. Evans likes to suffer like that, but he is missing a kick, but of course, he has the ITT ace card.
In conclusion; I see either one of the Schlecks, probably Frank, doing the job on Alp d'Huez most likely, and setting up his Yellow in Paris.
Nice thread, mate.
Cheers,
SP
Based on your combination of results, I tend to agree that Evans looks most likely to hold his place best in the ITT, to make or defend time. 2 minutes seems at the longest end of the margin, either way, though.
The Schleck brothers look most likely to me to do something special in the Alps. This Tour is open for the taking, and I don't have to imagine much to see one of them burying himself into world of pain, to attack and hold the break. So far, it's been a bit of a pissing contest between the Principals and we've had two winners in the Pyrennes, which didn't include neither one of the Principals. So, they're leaving it to the Alps: Contador has run out of stages to win, now, I should think. He should've done something already, and it's difficult to see that he will amaze in the Alps. You are right to think that Basso, Sanchez, and even Evans are all possibilities, with Evans holding the advantage of having the ITT stage up his sleeve.
Nevertheless, we have witnessed the fact that the Schlecks can and did attack on multiple occasions. What is going on between them will be unknown, however I am confident from the evidence available to me thus far, is that either one or both of them have the ability to attack on a stage in the Alps without looking back, but extending a break which will force anyone wanting to follow to bury himself into a world of pain. Evans likes to suffer like that, but he is missing a kick, but of course, he has the ITT ace card.
In conclusion; I see either one of the Schlecks, probably Frank, doing the job on Alp d'Huez most likely, and setting up his Yellow in Paris.
Nice thread, mate.
Cheers,
SP
Interesting replies and gives me even more reason to rue that I will be travelling to my favourite neice's wedding during Alpe d'Huez and attending the wedding during the TT - is it possible to Sky+ 2 stages and not find out the results for over 2 days?
bb66 - I'd like to believe you on Basso as I'd like to see him do well. He was a good, though never top class time trialler in his prime but lost 5 mins on Evans and 3 mins on Voeckler in the Dauphine TT over the same route as Stage 19. I appreciate that he is much much better just 4 weeks on but I don't think that he has improved that much. In the final Giro TT in 2010, he lost 20 secs to Evans over 15 km. Make that a minute over 42km and that is the best possible I think he could do as he was clearly in very good form then, so he has to take over 2 minutes from Evans and probably 90 secs from A Schleck in the Alps - doesn't seem likely to me.
On Contador, I think that it is very unlikely but have this nagging vision that after a rest day, 2 'easy' stages, a marking stage on Thur, if he has any form he might be the man to attack on Alpe d'Huez as he is an explosive climber at best. Sanchez could go with him, I doubt Basso could, Voeckler would be blown away but I just can't guess what the Schlecks or Evans could do. When Contador and Andy were together on the Tourmalet last year, Contador only had to mark Andy and it always looked to me that he could go away if he really needed to. The dynamics this year are very different.
I also wonder whether the best result for Frank would be for his brother to crash so that he is relieved of childcare duties giving him freedom to attack as he did win on Alpe d'Huez in 2006.
bb66 - I'd like to believe you on Basso as I'd like to see him do well. He was a good, though never top class time trialler in his prime but lost 5 mins on Evans and 3 mins on Voeckler in the Dauphine TT over the same route as Stage 19. I appreciate that he is much much better just 4 weeks on but I don't think that he has improved that much. In the final Giro TT in 2010, he lost 20 secs to Evans over 15 km. Make that a minute over 42km and that is the best possible I think he could do as he was clearly in very good form then, so he has to take over 2 minutes from Evans and probably 90 secs from A Schleck in the Alps - doesn't seem likely to me.
On Contador, I think that it is very unlikely but have this nagging vision that after a rest day, 2 'easy' stages, a marking stage on Thur, if he has any form he might be the man to attack on Alpe d'Huez as he is an explosive climber at best. Sanchez could go with him, I doubt Basso could, Voeckler would be blown away but I just can't guess what the Schlecks or Evans could do. When Contador and Andy were together on the Tourmalet last year, Contador only had to mark Andy and it always looked to me that he could go away if he really needed to. The dynamics this year are very different.
I also wonder whether the best result for Frank would be for his brother to crash so that he is relieved of childcare duties giving him freedom to attack as he did win on Alpe d'Huez in 2006.
didn't want to suggest Basso being a contender for the win, but he could be for the podium if he remembers a bit to his former TT abilities.
a great thread. personally i read the situation as andy schlek is worrying too much aabout contador rather than testing evans, i dont see alberto making up the time on andy but i agree he needs a prolonged attack yesterday seemed a waste of team effort whilst we all expect voeckler to be dropped time is begining to run out. for me andy is the stronger contender than frank but time will tell having a brother there may complicate things for both without a clear team leader
Andy definitely preoccupied with Contador - but that's because he sees the Spaniard as the only rival and he's right. The summit finishes have so far not been strongly contested with a number of riders finishing with the leaders. Andy has been attacking but watching to see if he's broken Contador - and so far he hasn't so he hasn't risked fully committing with a number of mountain stages remaining.
I think A Schleck will really put the hammer down on Alpe D'Huez or the day before - and that will destroy Evans, Basso and Voeckler. Probably Contador too.
Evans's price is way too short - he's never won the race before and he's not going to now at age 34.
A Schleck is riding conservatively but he looks the winner to me.
My podium: Andy, Contador, Frank
I think A Schleck will really put the hammer down on Alpe D'Huez or the day before - and that will destroy Evans, Basso and Voeckler. Probably Contador too.
Evans's price is way too short - he's never won the race before and he's not going to now at age 34.
A Schleck is riding conservatively but he looks the winner to me.
My podium: Andy, Contador, Frank
@A-T
I would agree with pretty much everything you have stated, and some of what would be different in terms of description you can find on another thread, just like I found your point on Voeckler from a different thread, aptly described here. Evan's is short, but this can be a good thing in limiting liability for those intent on laying him, for those of us who see through his cockameme smokescreen.
The only thing I would change is to put Frank not Andy on top of my podium and therefore ahead of his brother in Paris.
Cheers,
SP
I would agree with pretty much everything you have stated, and some of what would be different in terms of description you can find on another thread, just like I found your point on Voeckler from a different thread, aptly described here. Evan's is short, but this can be a good thing in limiting liability for those intent on laying him, for those of us who see through his cockameme smokescreen.
The only thing I would change is to put Frank not Andy on top of my podium and therefore ahead of his brother in Paris.
Cheers,
SP
Enjoyed reading all your thoughts. I agree with AT. Frank didn't look in as good a nick to me on last stage of Pyranees. He looked good when he got away earlier on in mountains but he was always going to be given more rope than Andy by the other contenders. The most likeliest scenario is that Andy will put in a major attack in the Alps and get at least some time out of Evans. To me Evans is too short in the betting his TT's has consistently worsened in my view over the last three years and he's not getting any younger. He usually has one bad day in the mountains in each grand tour and I think that is a strong possibility to happen again. His Team will be on the limit in the Alps.
great thread this! For me Evans is the favorite here. What people tend to overlook sometimes, is that Evans is not the same rider anymore. He's gotten older indeed, but also (a lot) mentally stronger. The "loser" Evans that could never win and was on the podium a few times is no more. He's gotten a lot more confident and relaxed since his world title. Was good in the classics in Belgium at the beginning of the year. I put a bet on him after the very first stage (where he became second after Gilbert and actually closed the gap a bit, way before the other), and am comfortable to keep this bet until the end.
Contador hasn't got the juice this year, Frank was in trouble in the last mountain stage, Andy was awful in the Tour De Suisse and just hasn't convinced me... Evans for me.
It's a tour of mediocre riders this year - no rider seems to be able to blow everyone away. And Evans will win a tour of mediocre riders - all he needs to to is follow and hold on - seems fitting[:happy
Contador hasn't got the juice this year, Frank was in trouble in the last mountain stage, Andy was awful in the Tour De Suisse and just hasn't convinced me... Evans for me.
It's a tour of mediocre riders this year - no rider seems to be able to blow everyone away. And Evans will win a tour of mediocre riders - all he needs to to is follow and hold on - seems fitting[:happy
I agree that Evans has changed mentally from 2009 on, he was always criticized as a pure wheel follower, but that wouldn't have earned him the rainbow jersey, he is able to attack or immediately counter attack, and he is able to go in deep suffering lots of pain, that's why I think he is abel to limit his losses to Schlecks to what he can make up in ITT.
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