Into the mountains we shall go a proper: Stage 12.

Prediction?

I predict Txurruka has no chance, he crashed out 3 days ago.

I predict Txurruka has no chance, he crashed out 3 days ago.

I predict the same. How did I miss that...? Oh! wait, I was applauding the fact that Vino was out in that same stage. Some people like him. I wasn't happy he was hurt though, just that he had abandoned.

Prediction?

I predict Contador in a bruising encounter from the Schleck double-team. It won't be easy, may not even be pretty, but I tend to think that you don't just lose the ability he showed previously, and even prior. He'll want to make a statement this early. But I'll be having a close look at laying Evans undoubtedly. Looks like free money to me, and I'm confident of not having to pay the liability.

Cheers,
SP

I predict the principals d*cking about a bit more, and a breakaway doing the job again.

Yeah if a mountain stage will end with a breakaway win then this is it for sure.

A number of things could happen but here's my stab

being Bastille Day the French will try a madcap escape ... expect some grouping of Moncoutie, di Gregorio, Kadri to form. A second group of "just below GC" will go on the Tourmalet - the likes of Cunego, Velits and possibly Tiralongo as Astana only have the stage wins to aim for now.

Leopard will test Bertis's knee (which will be fine) on the Tourmalet but Berie will wait until the last 2/3 km of the stage to launch his attack.

Being the Pyrenees Sammy Sanchez will launch an attack on the descent of the Tourmalet. Luz Ardiden is special to Euskatel as that was their first Tour stage win in 2001.

Sammy to win the stage; Moncoutie in polka dot; Bertie & Andy to put time into Evans

All valid, all expanding the scope of the picture being drawn to an exciting stage start. SP.

Contador to attack and gain 5 metres then to eyeball Shleck,Shleck eyeballs him back as he levels and repeat.

Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-)

Got to be a breakaway today with all the faves marking each other out of it.

Looking at Basques in their own terrain and Frenchmen on Bastille day obviously so let's see who gets up the road.

Alan Perez, Cristophe Riblon and Remy Di Gregorio spring to mind as obvious ones at big prices but lets see what happens.

Two other things interest me.....

1) How the alliance between Sam Sanchez and AC works out.

and

2) How the two Italians Cunego and Basso (particularly Cunego) approach it.


I've got a feeling that Cadel and the Schlecks will know they are in a race after today.

Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-)

You know with Voeckler he's going to leave his heart on the mountain. Proud Frenchman on France's national holiday whilst he's in yellow, there'll be blood, there'll be tears; it'd be a mistake to discount him doing something special to hold onto the Maillot-Jaune. Nice one gOldstarr. Cheers, SP.

my tearaway tigers for today

mollema@ 80s
arroyo@ 90s
riblon@ 110s
tiralonga@ 120s

gl all

Group of six being allowed a good lead - Geraint Thomas virtual yellow jersey

More of a watch and see stage for me

It will be cold, windy and possibly wet on Tourmalet / Luz Ardiden - a particularly testing first mountains stage

Evans will hold up pretty well today (or at least it will be his best performance in the mountains)

This is what the Tour is really all about. Bring on the lumpy bits!

Had my usual speculative triple figure pyraneean Euskaltel escapologist bet...but went for Martinez.

One day I'll pick the right one...

Looking forward to Luz Ardiden.

Cunego or Uran for me.

Cunego and Taamarae(sic) for me.

About time MIM you put your's in, especially since you got us started with the question. Cheers, SP.

Lol I am adding in Gesink and Veltis
GL All

Expecting big ride from Sammy Sanchez, three ascents, two fast descents looks like suiting him. He came to the line on that awkward stage before the rest day with a double handful so looks in form.

i thought it looked like the yellow jersey was going wide round 'Geraint corner' just as they cut for the break!

Leopard Trek setting a brutal pace

Good stuff from Thomas. Think he's probably blowing himself away, but still, nice and aggressive.

Great stuff from Gilbert and Voeckler, can they keep it up?

Can't believe I didn't get on Sanchez with 6km to go

great pick clonmullin! made a few quid on sanchez - ta!!

Since I authored the thread, it's only appropriate I go over it in an appropriate fashion:

@ clonmullin
Being the Pyrenees Sammy Sanchez will launch an attack on the descent of the Tourmalet. Luz Ardiden is special to Euskatel as that was their first Tour stage win in 2001. Sammy to win the stage; Moncoutie in polka dot; Bertie & Andy to put time into Evans
Tick!

@ g0ldstarr
Tommy Voeckler will be one to watch, He will hold the yellow jersey or die trying :-)
Gold star for you monsieur!

@ Handsome Frank
Two other things interest me..... 1) How the alliance between Sam Sanchez and AC works out.
Interesting interest!

@ red and white
Expecting big ride from Sammy Sanchez, three ascents, two fast descents looks like suiting him. He came to the line on that awkward stage before the rest day with a double handful so looks in form.
The best read pick, in my view!

@LazyRamper 
Can't believe I didn't get on Sanchez with 6km to go
Doh!

Cheers,
SP

Chapeau.

I may be going to the well once too often but the same logic applies tomorrow as for stage 12 so it's Sammy again for me with a saver on Frank Schleck who looks the strongest of the favourites in the mountains this year. Can't believe his price for tomorrow is higher than Contador's who needs to be eating plenty of beef to regain last year's form.

@red and white

I think you are going to a well which has become a little foul, since according to the analysis of the esteemed Jean-Francois Pescheux: "Every rider who has previously won at Plateau de Beille has gone on to the win the Tour that same year."

Question: Do you think Sammy is going to wear the golden fleece on the podium in Paris? If not; don't drink from the well.

Cheers,
SP

Vanendert to win the tour then based on winning on the Plateu De Beille then ? Err

@gOldstarr

I only went by Jean-Francois Pescheux, mate. That's how it looks in the record books, I don't doubt him. It looks like this established pattern will be no more according to you, since it's an Err from you.

Cheers,
SP

Vanendert

20th position. 12'06 behind. Won by 46' seconds over the first of the Principals.

Given that, he would need to win each stage remaining or simply beat the Principals, by double that margin, to stand on the podium in Paris in Yellow.

Safe to say that even if I got to write 1000 on my ticket, I wouldn't take it for a quid.

Cheers,
SP

Lies, damn lies and statistics. Another good ride from Sammy though and I can see him finishing on the podium as he's not a bad time trialler.
Nothing special from the main contenders in the Pyrenees. Hope for a bit more attacking in the Alps. I suppose the Schleck brothers had a go but I can't help feeling the two of them together are less than the sum of the parts. For example I wouldn't put my hard earned on a guy who says he'd love his brother to win as much as himself (that was Andy and he looked like he meant it). I prefer someone a bit more single minded and for that reason I'm all in on Evans who I think will hold it together sufficiently in the Alps to win it in the time trial. The only guy in my view who could take time off him on the penultimate stage is Contador who doesn't look the part this year and should be riding in a jersey with either black and white horizontal stripes or arrows.

@ red and white

I assure you I am no liar, and statistics, whilst they manifest in odd patterns are used by most bookmakers to frame markets. It's one of the primary factors of influence in forming a market for a scrupulous bookmaker. On this occasion, however, it's nearly impossible for the pattern to continue to be extended.

Agreed, another good ride from Sammy, I was amazed the Principals would have let him go after he won the 12th stage, and which I thought you read best.

It hasn't been a contest in the mountains that's true, but it would be foolish for me to imagine that some rider feeling good during an Alp stage isn't going to attack and bury himself in pain for a good half hour to try and set up the GC win for himself. Conversely, Evans is my best bet to lay, and with the value about Frank I can't go past him to get a couple of quid on to back. Yes, Evans will do well in the ITT but I think that from the available evidence, he won't be able to defend a gap which by that time should be more than over 2 minutes.

I agree that Contador has been very average and suitable for a host of positions to fill such simple attire. I was a supporter of his chances, but not anymore.

Cheers,
SP

Nothing meant by the off the cuff quote swingingpick. The tour has been odd at the top this year with non of the main contenders showing dominance at this stage, hence the Plateau de Beille stat was a busted flush. Voeckler is a battler but it's odd how easily he kept position in the Pyrenees. Perhaps it's a 'clean' year for a change. Let's hope so. I feel sure Contador will be stripped of last year's beefy win. The Alps will be a different test and Evans has been broken before, that's why I'm hoping he can cling on as I reckon he can take a minute out of Andy in the tt and two out of Frank.

@ red and white

Precisley, Evans has been broken, yet he has never done the breaking in the Tour, to my knowledge. You bring up a good point, one I hadn't considered, this could be a clean year indeed, and therefore the reason behind it being such an open race. And so, I see the time between the Schlecks the other way around, since I'm hopeful of Frank (perhaps I'll have a saver on Andy, also) burying himself into an intensive period of pain, where he just goes and whoever goes with him will have to be better suffer than him to win the stage, in the Alps. In my view, it won't be so much like it has been with one of the brothers looking back to see what the attack has done to the pack, it'll just be full committment. Meaning: Voeckler will battle on, as will Evans, and the other Schleck won't get involved, causing indecision to the rest. Which leaves Contador as the only other real contender to make a sharp gap and match the attack, and settle in to a world of pain.

If no such attack occurs and the times which you are talking about are left, coming out of the Alps, and into the ITT, Evans will be in the best position to create his own win, with little doubt. I see magic happening through suffering of the kind which wins races, in the places where attendance is by invitation only through strong past results in the real mountains. Frank represents value, with a little saver on his brother in case brotherly love is something I don't understand. I've said Evans is my best bet to lay for the win in Paris, however, as they enter the Alps I'll much prefer to lay for the stage where his dividend reflects that for the lay for the Tour. This will likely be stage 18, but Contador is pretty much out of time and he may get desperate before then, which in my view would change the dynamics of my understanding. It's unlikley that he would be left alone for a breakaway attempt before the main Alp stages, however. Moreover, he doesn't have it this year or else he would have done something by now, I tend to believe. Schlecks still seem likely, Evans has been beaten, but leave him to repair where and when he can, and he can turn it into a victory in the ITT.

Cheers,
SP

*Evans has bee beaten.

Evans has been broken before.

Evans was injured last year in the crashes before the Alps, he had a hard Giro and had a new very weak team in BMC ..BMC wasn't even Pro Tour team last year (BMC was a Continental Teams) so Evans and team had to race the Giro (everything before) to get a chance of an invit to the Tour de france 2010

Evans looks very strong so far this Tour, he has been up the front of the pack all tour..Evans won stage 4 , leading Contadore a long way out and still hold on to win shows me how strong Evans is this year ( or how bad Contadore is)

Schlecks..bad thing about the brothers, is they are both so bad going down hils, that even if they get 30sec on Evans in middle category 1 or HC hill, Evans will make this time up going down to re join them..this leaves the Schlecks with very little km to take time out of Evans..Plus i don't think Frank is as good as Evans in the hills andyway

Contadore look lucky to hold on..let along gaining 2 mins

Voeckler...i back him aftet stage 14 14/1 , because he look like he belong there more then Contadore,...Eurocar even had teams mate up there with Voeckler,plus Voeckler and team mate did alot of the work up Plateau De Beille   


i believe after 15 stages of the tour...we seen what guys have in there legs ..and like to bet on whats has  happen, and not what i hope happens

@Nairda

I believe you are doing yourself (and potential readers/posters) a disservice by neglecting to use punctuation and grammer, as a lot of what you say, offers a fresh perspective on the subject matter under discussion, and therefore worthy of consideration and comment. Cheers, SP.

no need for a comma between "say" and "offers"

Not necessary, but not wrong. Cheers, SP.

Yeah, if you is going to diss somebodies gramer, den at least trie to get you're own good yeah! What skool did you goe too anyways!!!!!!!

@lizardlouis

Nought one as good as yorz obvidiotsly. Ha-Ha! Cheers, SP.

I went to a gramer skool. Least it was 'til 600 years of history was trashed by labour.
Anyways back to the race. Thought nairda made a very good point about teams as we tend to concentrate on individuals. BMC look like they can help Evans in the alps and I think that may tip the balance for him. When he was broken last year he had a fractured elbow. Backing him may be a case of heart over head as I've always liked Cadel who is a straightforward rider. All of Lance's wins came on the back of strongman teammates (though a number of them were chemically enhanced). Your team can't do much on the final climbs though and as you say swingingpick they will sort them out. Have just read that Thursday's finish will be at the highest altitude in the entire history of the tour. Wish I knew who has the highest red blood cell count this year as it will be a killer and a different ball game altogether to the Pyrenees. Then it will be followed by the Galibier again with an Alpe d'Huez finish. Two days during which I will be glued to the telly. Then probably Saturday and Sunday as well before the cold turkey sets in.

SwingingPick

you may fix my grammer up...that about as good as it get from me in this area

Not a word!

@red and white

I went to an independent catholic college, and I have to say that during Prime Minister John Howard's long time in office, the catholic schools got a decent amount of funding and assistance from the Australian government, which was good policy in my view. He addresed a matter which was long overdue, but coming from the political right with a bag full of money from a period of unprecedented growth, it was an obvious vote grabber for disillusioned catholic voters who tended to vote Labor in the preceding years if not decades.

But in any case: the race. I tend to think that teams are not as important as they once were, at least in terms of including as a factor for a rider's chances to hold-up in the mountains. A strong team in the mountains, ends up doing only one thing: thinnning out the peleton, until only the cream rises to the top. By then, the members of the team are spent, and the rider they were "riding" for is left with the other chances. All teams will have the same effect, unless your whole team is full of your favourite climber. Eventually, only the select few are left, because the other riders know not attack until the right time, if they are all in the same group at that period of the race. The team only damages the riders that have no place being in the final group. It's not a disadvantage for Contador to have BMC setting the pace as he keeps pace with BMC with ease. BMC therefore doesn't attack Contador, but Evans does, even though he hasn't and needn't do so, now.

Teams in the mountains, the strong ones riding strong for their climbers, all end up doing the same thing as what another team would do in their position.

Excellent raising the altitude point of consideration, mate. I knew the analysis of the stage you mention, but perhaps might have overlooked the critical factor of the physiological effects of climbing in such lofty elevations. Certainly why blood-doping is such a considerable advantage to a climber. Hehe, yes, let's measure the likely riders' chances of winning the 18th stage by their body's ability to carry oxygen around their body.

But yes, let's celebrate the centennary of the Alps inclusion in the Tour with three HC climbs, and the highest ever altitude reached. Very fitting, don't you think? Is that why we haven't seen any real attacks in the gentle Pyrennes, in comparison? I can just imagine the team directors, when adressing their teams' climbers: No real attacking, strictly to be a pissing contest as the Tour organizers have organized something for us this year, which will make the need for attacks reliant firstly on surviving the first couple of tests.

Cold turkey is worse when one loses their stake, so it's not too late for you to abandon your Evans bromance and step on the Frank Schleck express with value available for all guests if not wholehearted believers. I mean, come on, at that price you can have a little saver on his brother, where Evans has dropped like a rock beyond the depth where his price should have stopped, and perhaps even corrected itself a little.

I've been with the Tour from the first stage on the telly, and yes I also will be glued to it throuhout this historic period. Can't wait! Should be amazing!

Cheers,
SP

@Nairda

No thanks, got better things to do with my time. I'll probably just ignore your posts as they're frustrating to read, even though their validity is significant.

@lizardlouis

Not a word!

Wow! Three relatively big words, perfectly spelt and assembled in proper order according to accepted grammer. Well done, mate!

Cheers,
SP

Thanks, was that Grammer or Grammar?

@lizardlouis

Neither, it was meant to be gramer, like you used prior. Ha-ha! Cheers, SP.

Setting a pace up the hill,is what Evans and Voeckler want..they don't want this attacking and stopping, one pace all the way is best for them..anyway, up the hill it only EuroCar, with which we are talking about, and I believe this is a big help to Voeckler, to have a team mate there with him...With BMC, I was more talking about on the flats where BMC has look after Evans, and in coming 2nd in Team TT

anyway..as im now on 40% PC, i will take a break from betting...good luck with your bets, and may you not win to much money that betfair needs to change you 40%-60% PC

Hi all,

I am new to post on here but have been following le tour intently for a few years. I backed Andy last year and still think he would have won but for the chain incident, and have waited a year to back him this time round too.

I have to admit I am less confident now than pre-tour but think SP has hit the nail on the head when he says the Pyrenees may be child's play this year to what we can expect over the next few days. Thursday and Friday are simply brutal, two of the toughest days of recent tour history, and the thing that is still giving me hope is that Evans is surely going to struggle to hang on for two days in a row. I agree with earlier post that Andy looked pretty legless up Luz-Ardiden, but I think one of his hallmarks is his ability to recover, he looked the freshest of the main contenders on Sat, whereas I believe Evans will be seriously up against it to stick with the Schlecks and Contador on Thursday, let alone Fri, and could lose a hefty bit of time, even if it is a drug-free tour. As Bertie just simply doesnt look like he has done over the last few years (could be to do with where he's sourcing his steaks!), I still think Andy will win the tour, but think it will be very close this year. It should be good to watch whatever happens.

Very much looking forward to this week.

@ nairda I'm winning big money without ever wasting a thought to PC, you have to know how to do it

Andy will have to launch big attacks now in the Alps, I'm sure he will try, but unsure if he has it in his legs to succeed this year. I'm getting more and more convinced Cadel can do it this year, but for my pocket I only need Tommy to be torn off yellow which I have no doubt will happen after how today'S stage went.

As you're a fan of Frank swingingpick, have just noticed you can get evens about him beating his bro mano a mano.

If the Galibier isn't cancelled Contador can close the gap on Evans big time  & then beat him in the time trial.

Serves them all right for not having the bottle to attack last week whilst Contador was struggling.

@red and white

I'm not sure I'm necessarily a fan of Frank Schleck, I go where there is value in a price and clearly I identified what I saw as value in Frank's price prior to Stage 16. Nevertheless, I thank you for noticing and drawing it to my attention.

Cheers,
SP

It was evens Frank and 1.21 Andy in the head to head market when I noticed, making Andy a false favourite on what we've seen so far. He was a bit of a **** in the after-race interview on itv4 saying today's finish was too difficult and not what people with families want to see. Thought it was a great finish personally. It will probably be the wrong type of snow for Andy on Thursday. I felt big respect for him last year after the chain incident but that's fading now.

That makes it look like I wrote something rude. It was just another word for a cat beginning with p and ending with y. Those betfair folk must have dirty minds.

@red and white

I thought it was a great finish, also. I didn't see the interview to which you refer, however as a member of a family and therefore a person with a family, I would disagree with Andy's assertion. Jean-Francois Pescheux is playing down the effects of the snow conditions in the Alps, in an article I just read; saying something like the Tour will not be beaten by weather, and inferring riders are tough and don't go inside when the conditions turn inclement, perhaps like in the tennis or cricket. Nevertheless, I take your point that when one begins to rely on excuses too much, one begins to find fault in any number of unfavourable conditions or effects. So, if it won't be the snow which Andy complains about, it'll likely be the fact that he didn't have snow tyres.

I tend to think that there's still plenty of value in the market, besides the picks you know I've been loading-up on. Having said that, I'm not taking that much from this stage result, especially when the overall standings are still telling a different story. If anything, there's a real build-up of pressure ahead of the coming tests for all riders, and I'll continue doing what I've been doing in selecting value-priced selections. The market to which you refer is not one where I see a lot of value and movement should I take a position, and overall standings change, but I agree with you that Andy is a false favourite.

I accept that your Evans selection is though a true favourite, even though I disagree with some aspects of the influences affecting his price, namely the ITT. Let me explain: I don't understand how the market views this as an ace card he's holding up his sleeve, when the Tour is going to go where entry is predicated on the most important criteria of all, and one which you raised for scrutiny a little earlier on this very thread, essentially where minutes will be on offer for and against all riders.

I need to review a few things, and make further study of the market, but at this period of proceedings I see two stories being played-out thus far in the Tour, and clearly it would be a mistake to believe that the race has no chance of taking a different shape before the finish. Advantage Evans!

Cheers,
SP.

@red and white

Oh, and thanks for explaining the expletive, suggests to me you care what people might think. And clearly there are kids about, judging by some of the posts severly lacking punctuation, grammar, and general writing skills. SP.

@nairda

I acknowledge you have been making an effort, recently. However, it's still rather poor isn't it? Keep working at it though, mate. You have some good ideas, and a working intelligence, so I see that if you work at it, you will become much better in no time. I think, that if you are going to use what is essentially a correspondence forum with a keyboard interface, it is your responsibility to be as clear and easy-to-read as possible to move a topic along.

Cheers,
SP

You are taking the urine SwiP, surely? While I have been reading your comments, as well as all others, and believe most are both interesting and have validity, to suggest that what you are writing is "easy-to-read" and therefore of more value is plain wrong.

Some of your sentences have been shockingly convoluted and your responses to other comments completely miss the point but that is not the issue. This is an open forum to discuss BETTING ON SPORTS, not exactly the highest form of discourse, nor the most relevant. To constantly pick up on someone else's grammar while attempting to take the higher moral ground is bordering on arrogance.

And yes, I realise the hypocrisy in my actions.

That said, I am cheering like mad for Cadel to to the business necessary over the next few days to stay in the hunt, but strongly believe that Conatador has got over his hump and will gain enough time to pose the most threat. Though if Galibier is shortened, Voeckler may still have a slim chance.

@stueyO

I reject your inference that I'm claiming my writing is easy-to-read and of more value. I have never claimed that I'm better or more valid or "urine taker". I realize I have a problem with brevity which I'm not concerned about rectifying. You state that some of what I have said misses the point and is complicated, yet you fail to bring specific details to my attention. I would say it's intricate, so I agree with the choice of the word you used but not on its definition.

I agree this is an open forum, but just like in society simply because something is deemed to be open, doesn't mean there isn't an implicit requirement to conduct oneself according to an accepted fashion. I'm not sure I accept your claim that betting on sports isn't a high form of discourse. I think anything can be a high form of discourse if you bring that level of understanding to it. I therefore think that what you are saying, in your strained manner and from your failed position, is that you think that discussing betting on sports is frivolous and not worthy of a high-level of articulation. You are wrong here, because since betting on sports has real and actual consequences which affects people's lives directly - it is very much necessary for people to understand each other easily in drawing information from a poster's comments.

I also reject that I constantly picked up on someone else's grammar. In fact, in the above post I sought to offer my optimistic encouragement to do better. Hardly the arrogance you seem to think I have furnished this forum.

Your hypocrisy has been noted, and is plain to see for all.

Cheers,
SP

Er........Is there a bike race somewhere at the moment?

every man needs he ego

???!!!!??/